### Author Topic: Let's make an assumption  (Read 740 times)

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#### BlueAngel

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##### Let's make an assumption
« on: September 20, 2018, 08:18:10 PM »

If we knew that every 37 spins brings a number which will hit in 12 consecutive 37 spins cycles, but we don't know which one of the 24 numbers (on average) will be, then how could we exploit such information?

Clues }

12 consecutive cycles with at least 1 hit per cycle
24 potential contenders

Objective }

Achieve any profit after 12 x 37 = 444 spins

#### Dane

##### Re: Let's make an assumption
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2018, 08:30:35 AM »
Such an assumption is of course far from the real world. If we knew for sure that one number would perform in each cycle, the game of roulette would not survive.
I have no math degree, but we should just wait and see! Right  after one cycle we ought to have 24 potential contenders.
Right after the 2nd cycle of 37 spins we should have FEWER contenders (numbers  in both cycles).
Right after the 3rd cycle we should have even fewer contenders.
And so forth and so on. At some point the number of contenders has been significantly reduced. Then it is time to start betting the few remaining candidates. As simple as that.

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Let's make an assumption
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2018, 11:25:48 AM »
It's not that simple because we have to cover the rest of the numbers which will not hit with such consistency since we don't know which one will continue coming.
Even if a number keeps hitting 1 per 37 spins, no matter how many cycles, it doesn't make you winner because the payout is 36 but I bet 37 units.
Unless we knew which number and exactly which spin is going to hit the situation is not favorable, BUT you think that this FACT alone is able to make someone long term winner, you are impressive!

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Let's make an assumption
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2018, 12:31:22 PM »
Let me break it down for you;

From the initial 24 numbers 8 will go to sleep, 8 will hit only once and 8 will hit twice or more, there you are your 24 hits on the 2nd cycle of 37 spins.

From the remaining 16 numbers 6 will go to sleep, 5 will hit only 1 time and 5 will hit 2+ times during the 3rd cycle.

From the remaining 10 numbers 4 will go to sleep, 3 will hit one time and 3 will hit 2 or more times during the 4th cycle.

From the remaining 6 numbers 2 of them will go to sleep, 2 will hit only once and 2 will hit twice or more during the 5th cycle.

From remaining 4 numbers 2 will go to sleep, 1 will hit once and 1 will hit twice or more during the 6th cycle.

It takes 6 x 37 = 222 spins to completely fade a single wave of numbers and yet you may see 1 or even 2 of them continuing up to 6 more cycles.
The only way to make use of such info is by utilizing a progression, so the real question is what kind of progression would better accommodate such persistent statistics!

If you'd asked me I'd prefer a positive progression being applied per number separately instead of the total.

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Let's make an assumption
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2018, 01:30:59 PM »
It's being called Law Of The Thirds for a reason, last standing number will be the strongest of them all, consider it as the Highlander, as long as survives by taking heads becomes stronger by possessing the others power...in the end there can only be 1!

24 numbers by 1 unit each equals 24 units total
12 numbers by 2 units each equals 24 units total
8 numbers by 3 units each equals 24 units total
6 numbers by 4 units each equals 24 units total
4 numbers by 6 units each equals 24 units total
3 numbers by 8 units each equals 24 units total
2 numbers by 12 units each equals 24 units total
1 number by 24 units equals 24 units total

24 units x (222-37) = 24 x 185 = 4440 / 36 = 123.33 wins needed minus 60.33 hits on average = 60 wins short, BUT this is where it comes the progression.

Do you get the picture?

#### Dane

##### Re: Let's make an assumption
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2018, 03:00:12 PM »
Thanks for breaking it down. Do you know "The Woman with the Eggs" (Hans Christian Andersen)?
Her eggs broke too
I have not excluded any progression here, and I admit that positive progressions are superior to negative progressions.
This socalled "Law" ("Zwei Drittel Gesetz") might not be a Law after all. WHEN does it not live up to our expectations and calculations?   Oh yes, I get the picture, but WHEN does the picture crack?
We´ll never know. Any of your numbers can without warning go to sleep anytime, as other numbers head for the Highlands.
And (as I wrote in my first reply) the basic assumption is far from the real world. Better read  words from this great Dane Hans Christian Andersen!
« Last Edit: September 21, 2018, 03:02:44 PM by Dane »

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: Let's make an assumption
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2018, 09:29:42 AM »
Of course all these are theory and the statistical mean tends to decline in short samples of results.
That's why it makes better sense to go with the deviations when we don't bet for many hundreds or more results.
The Regression Towards the Mean makes sense only in the thousands, tens, or even hundred of thousands and it "corrects" 1 deviation by making the opposite deviation.
RTM can be observed only in a large sample of events, if you analyze short chunks by breaking down a large sample you'd witness that they are full of smaller or greater deviations and what we perceive as deviation is a "correction" for a larger total.
I would never back the balance when my sessions are a few hundreds of spins.

About Hans Christian Andersen I know him but I'm not so fond of reading fairy-tales, if I would then all I had to read was the Dr Talos topics...!:-D