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Author Topic: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?  (Read 267 times)

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MickyP

How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« on: September 14, 2018, 07:41:30 AM »
How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
This question can be followed with another question: How many bets do you intend placing for a win?

These may seem like odd questions but they will shed light on game play and just how much a person is "addicted" to winning. I feel there could be no wrong answers here.

Background to the questions:

Sam will wait for a dozen to NOT show for X number of spins and then bet it for a few spins "knowing he will get a hit within those few bet placements. (variance is always at play.)
If MrPerfect were to play finals he would wait for 1500-2000 spins to identify a target final to bet on. (Sleep deprivation. We have been told that roulette is one long game so you can't miss recording any spins.)
Scepticus plays Hit and Run and leaves a table after a win. (The thought that what just worked will not work again comes to mind.)

There is risk in every single bet placed and not one single person using systems/strategies can confidently place bets and be 100% assured of a win within a few spins of every single betting opportunity.

How sure are you really that you will win within your betting range? AP can reply but please exercise a degree of honesty.

DrTalos ends each game with a win.
 

scepticus

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2018, 11:11:06 AM »
Did Dr.Talos actually claim that every game ended with a win ?Strange question. Does anyone really bet thinking that they will lose  ?
When I bet I am CONFIDENT but not 100% ASSURED of a win.  Where there is uncertainty - as in roulette - there is always risk of loss.
 
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MickyP

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2018, 01:05:50 PM »
DrTalos plays a two fold game; the actual game and a recovery game if the actual game does not produce a win. I do not recall him stating directly that he plays till a win every time but following his posts he does state that he always wins his games and his recovery game turns a losing game around.

When bets are placed people don't think they will lose but they do expect to lose and that's why most people give themselves more than one opportunity to win. Playing 4 numbers gives you 8 chances to win. the 9th bet will be a break even bet if you win. True, there is always risk in every bet placed.

The only way to play with a high degree of accuracy is to master AP. All systems and strategies are subject to the same uncertainty of a win within X number of spins. Sadly, this is a factual PATTERN in Roulette and it TRIGGERS the need to chase losses. Even playing HOT numbers is plagued with the same uncertainty.

If your wins outweigh your losses then you are on a good wicket. What % is that?
 

scepticus

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2018, 03:43:21 PM »
Frankly. I don’t believe that any AP - or anyone in this forum -  is a Roulette Professional. Their betting might be profitable but that is a different matter. According to Frank Scoblette even Laurance admits that he might not beat today’s wheels.
Why wait for 1,500 - 2,000  spins ? To determine what ? A biased wheel ? How do they then determine a bias exists ? By analysing NUMBERS which can be done by merely analysing the numbers themselves without the hocu-pocus of wheel tracking , dominant diamonds etc.
What do you mean by ;“When bets are placed  people  don’t think they will lose but  they do expect to lose” ?
ALL bets have uncertain outcomes so I don’t think that ANYONE - even Dr Talos - wins EVERY TIME.( By “wins” I mean profits ).
Streaks of wins can happen as can streaks of losses. Some things in gambling never change.
I don’t keep track of all wins and losses so don’t have a  % to offer.  I would think about ½ % - at a guess. All I know  is that I DO have a small profit .I bet with small stakes so don’t win or lose much. I am more focussed on not losing rather than winning megabucks.I am more interested in ideas - the process rather than the outcome.

 

MrPerfect.

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2018, 09:37:56 PM »
 Scepticus,  you really should know % you are playing with. Without it it's pointless to call yourself a player. There are only players and plankton in this game. No other roles are available. 
 

MickyP

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2018, 10:20:55 PM »
What do you mean by ;“When bets are placed  people  don’t think they will lose but  they do expect to lose” ?

Sorry, didn't mean to ruffle your feathers Scepticus. I thought I made it very clear as I even included an example.
We all play with the belief that we will win. We believe in our methods of play and all the testing we do tells us we have X% chance of winning over X number of spins but in order to win we must expect some losses. It's the nature of systems/strategies/methods of play.
Why do system players get so happy when they win their first in a possible series of bets? Because although they think they will win there is still a degree of uncertainty. Roulette is clouded with uncertainty. Hope you understand now.
If you have an 80% chance of winning within 4 spins, is that good?
 

scepticus

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2018, 11:39:07 PM »
Nope, Micky , nope !Your sentence was unclear , hence my question. If you meant  we can expect to lose " sometimes " you should have said that.As I have often said that we MUST expect to  lose sometimes  it is surely obvious that I do undestand .How do you believe that you have an 80% chance of profit within  4 spins ?

O.K.Mr. Perfect . Like the majority in the forum I am a Plankton who plays roulette.But if I am a Plankton why did you not accept my challenge to a face to face encounter to display our respective methods ?
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2018, 11:42:36 PM »
Simply because you have no wish to become anything besides you already are. I see many gamblers almost every day.
 

scepticus

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2018, 11:48:18 PM »
  Evasion !  And you call yourself a PROFESSIONAL Roulette player  !    Afraid to accept the challenge of a Plankton  !
 
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MickyP

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2018, 12:16:11 AM »
If you have an 80% chance of winning within 4 spins, is that good?

I asked a question. I did not make a statement or a claim. Can you answer the question Scepticus?

I was clear about the question I asked above; look, it even has a ? at the end.
 

scepticus

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #10 on: September 16, 2018, 12:21:44 AM »
The answer , clearly, is Yes .I doubt that anyone has an 80% chance of PROFITING  which is much different  from " winning ". No experienced player should need to ask your original question .
 
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MickyP

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #11 on: September 16, 2018, 12:25:28 AM »
Why?  :D
 

MrPerfect.

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #12 on: September 16, 2018, 12:39:58 AM »
  Evasion !  And you call yourself a PROFESSIONAL Roulette player  !    Afraid to accept the challenge of a Plankton  !
  just not interested.  I have no time to waste, my life already a challenge every day by itself.
 
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scepticus

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #13 on: September 16, 2018, 01:23:53 AM »
Because, Micky, An experienced player aready knows the answer .
 
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MickyP

Re: How sure of a win do you need to be to place your bet?
« Reply #14 on: September 16, 2018, 01:47:04 AM »
And yet you seem confused. Questions asked are not always because we don't know the answer. Sometimes questions are asked out of curiosity to gauge other peoples opinions. Questions are also asked to start a discussion.

If this thread does not interest you then ignore it or are you wanting people to read into your insinuations?