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Author Topic: Positive Vs Negative Progressions  (Read 614 times)

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Scarface

Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« on: August 12, 2018, 12:55:41 PM »
Suppose we have a non zero wheel with fair payouts.  There are 3 players playing the exact same bet selection, only using different progressions.  Who will fair better in the longrun?

All 3 player bet on the same 5 numbers

Player 1 flatbets 1 unit on 5 different numbers

Player 2 - bets 1 unit on 5 numbers.  If bankroll drops under original amount, he flatbets.  If bankroll goes up in profit he raises wager by 1 unit for every 100 units in profit.  (Ex.  Profit is at 100 units raise wager to 2 units per number..profit at 200 units, raise wager to 3 units per number).  If at anytime profit decreases, also decrease wagers accordingly.

Player 3 - does the exact opposite as player 2.  He only flatbets when above original bankroll.  If below original bankroll, he increases wagers just like player 2, following the same rules.

So, all 3 players have the same bet selection.  Just using different progressions.  Player 1 is flat betting so he is the control group.  Player 1 will end his session when he wins 500 units, or he loses 500 units.  When Player 1 session ends, everyone's session ends. 

Who will fair better in this example?  The longterm expectation for flatbetting is 50%. So, player 1 should win 50% of the time and break even in the long run.  Player 2 will also win 50% of the time, but wins should be greater since he's using a positive progression...his losses should be equal to flatbetting.  Player 3's wins should be equal to flatbetting, but his losses should be much greater.

 

GIAJJENNO

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2018, 05:46:58 PM »
Equal 33-33-33
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2018, 09:12:57 PM »

If it's a real wheel, ball..etsBetter in this case will perform a player who knows what he is doing and why he does it. Everyone else will loose both time and money.
 
The following users thanked this post: mr j

GIAJJENNO

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2018, 10:54:41 PM »
But why? MrPerfect pls explain this.
 

Scarface

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2018, 11:45:17 PM »
Let's say a player flatbets and wins 300 units.  If another player, with the same bet selection, used a gradual up as you win progression then he'd win more.
 

Scarface

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2018, 11:59:03 PM »
Ok, assuming 2 players on a non zero wheel.  Player 1 flatbets.  He stops once he either wins or loses 300 units.  Over many sessions, his wins and losses will equal out to 50%.  He will break even in the longterm.
Wins=Losses.  +300 = -300

Player 2, if playing the same game, will also have an equal number of wins and losses.  However, Player 2 uses a gradual up as you win progression.  He also reduces wagers if profits goes down.  If he dips in the negative he will flatbet.  So, player 2 wins and losses will also be 50%. However, his wins will be a greater amount of his losses, giving him an advantage
#Wins=#Loses
Amount of Units Won > Amount of Units Lost
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #6 on: August 13, 2018, 06:53:31 PM »
But why? MrPerfect pls explain this.
that's simply what is going on there in reality. Make a simple test... record some numbers and see probability of a player to choose in random the positive ones.
   That's how casino pay the light and everything else
 

Scarface

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2018, 08:05:30 PM »
Variance is like a pendulum that swings both ways.  When dealing with negative variance, keep bets as low as possible.  Never rely on a single spin to catch back up.  If you do, then progression is way too high! 

You're just as likely to see positive variance as you see negative.  So, when luck is on your side, use a gradual increase in wagers to multiply winnings exponentially. 
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2018, 10:32:48 PM »
Problem of average roulette punter is that he doesn't know if he will have positive or negative variance. So he can not implement suxsessfull betting strategy.
    Progression does not matter. It's just edge multiplier. If there is no edge- nothing to multiply.
 

Scarface

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #9 on: August 15, 2018, 11:23:19 PM »
Problem of average roulette punter is that he doesn't know if he will have positive or negative variance. So he can not implement suxsessfull betting strategy.

Yes, that's why positive progression needs to be gradual with a stop gain.  If my base bet is 1 unit on 5 numbers, I'll raise to 2 units if my profit is 100 units.  If profit is 200 units I'll raise to 3 units...if 300 units I'll raise to 4, etc

But you have to have a stop.  Whatever my profit is, my stop is usually 25% below that.  So, if I'm up 1000 units and it dips back down to +$750, I'll stop and take my profit
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2018, 07:43:52 PM »
And what is a point for 25% stop- loss in this case? Is it motivated action or it just makes you feel good?
 

Scarface

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2018, 01:30:12 PM »
And what is a point for 25% stop- loss in this case? Is it motivated action or it just makes you feel good?

When you're already in profit, and using a positive progression your profits will multiply.  You never know when the trend will reverse, so using a stop will allow you to lock in gains.

Say 2 guys are playing the exact same numbers.  First guy is flatbetting, and is in profit for 200 units.  2nd guy is using a positive progression, and is up 600 units.  If the numbers suddenly go cold, 2nd guy can lock in his gains, say at 400. 

Ideally, you want to stop at the highest point.  But who knows when and where that'll be.  Best to use a stop, and lock in gains instead of giving it all back
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2018, 02:47:42 PM »
 Why would you bother to speak about something you do not do yourself?
  Positive progression is not a key to all your or someone elses problems, you know...
   Any progression does one thing only : put more money on the table. Progression does not provide edge by itself.
   In the example above..  with 100 units for every 1 base unit and 5 number bet, loss- stop is not motivated. It's just out of the blue decision of yours.
   Don't wanna be annoying,  but what is a point to post for a sake of posting? Hobby?
 

Scarface

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2018, 03:52:56 PM »
Mrperfect, I do use a stopping point when I'm in profit.  Ever heard of stopping why you're ahead?  Money management is important.  Guess what happens if you keep playing continuously?  You will lose all your money.  Not sure if you play real money or not, or maybe just inexperienced, but trust me playing this game continuously without a stopping point you will go broke (unless you have an edge)
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Positive Vs Negative Progressions
« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2018, 07:05:03 PM »
Scarface, my experience doesn't matter, lm just a pro player and use roulette money to pay my bills.
   From my humble experience of actually playing more then 1million spins and brainstorming constantly this game around 6-7 years... you are wrong.
  There is absolutely no reason or reliable way to play this game for profit, unless you got the edge.
  You can do whatever you want in your betting, final result sign ( +/-) ( not ammount) will depend on if you got the edge and did explored it properly.
   You can even play with positive edge and still loose money due to incorrect progression, and judging by what you post, you have no idea how to find a correct one.
   That's exactly why like ask. What is a point to post , if you do not know what you are posting about?