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Author Topic: why would someone test a method using simulation software?  (Read 7165 times)

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Mike

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #45 on: June 11, 2018, 05:45:14 PM »
Well, Laurance Scott teach me the difference between what is random and true bias with simulation software and spreadsheets and material to explain the Monte Carlo Simulations.
Sputnik,
There's no secret method or foolproof way to determine whether results are due to chance, only degrees of probability. These methods have been around for more than 100 years and can be found in any good stats book. Mr P knows what I'm talking about, but you don't give him credit for anything.  :o
 

Sputnik

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #46 on: June 11, 2018, 06:39:52 PM »


I don't need to mention specifics about the great discovery and hypothesis Laurance concluded, you will never find such material as its unique.
Comparing that with what you find online is just a way to fool your self.

So you may think and argue all night I could not care less.

Cheers
 

Mike

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #47 on: June 11, 2018, 06:41:47 PM »
I don't need to mention specifics about the great discovery and hypothesis Laurance concluded, you will never find such material as its unique.
LOL, deluded...  ;D
 

Sputnik

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #48 on: June 11, 2018, 07:06:09 PM »


If you want to call LS deluded you might do so I don't care, for me, he is a legend that i respect.
I can read and compare with other solution and see the weakness and strength.

There is nothing on this forum that has any value, just deluded disinformation,

You can visit a visual ballistic forum and read about done plays and further information and material.
Old outdated material that has no bearing with today's wheels.

I can compare and see what is superior and what is not,

As you stop adding any value to the conversation so will this be my last reply, we might get crossroads at other topics.
Until then have a nice evening.

 

MrPerfect.

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #49 on: June 11, 2018, 07:25:53 PM »
Sputnik,  no need to go all defencive.  No one has interest to put you personally down.
   Mike is right. Montecarlo simulations are old dog trick. Neither it represents full method or complete playing model as you stated. It's just a way to determine what has probability of being random fluctuation and what are natural boundaries of such fluctuations, that's all about it.
   I strongly advice egainst belives you display. Do not use that software as only solution, it's to be used as reference,  additional indicator... nothing more then that.
   It's not unique either, original autors of this method had more sofisticated software written for DOS. Goggle " biased wheel handbook"... it may open your eyes.
 

mr j

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #50 on: June 11, 2018, 07:29:09 PM »
  Mike stated >> I also agree, but if you don't know WHY a method works (or seems to work), you need strong statistical evidence that it does, and too many are satisfied with weak or no evidence. This is because they are basically amateurs and have no knowledge of statistical inference or understanding of what constitutes strong/weak evidence.

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I did a great thread on this years ago, one of my better ones >> Do you need to KNOW WHY a method will do well before playing it? <<

I did this thread because of.......myself. Meaning, can a person NOT know how to write out all the equations but STILL have a great method(s)? (myself again)

EXAMPLE.....I have 2-3 very very  decent methods.

Tested/played over thousands & thousands of LIVE spins. It still kicks a**, is still a great money maker BUT I cannot explain to you the WHY of it. Is that a bad thing? Am I headed to roulette jail? Everything I know is through trial & error only.

I did it all on my own, no begging involved. So when I hear.....why does your method work Ken? I'm not too sure I NEED/can answer that?
« Last Edit: June 11, 2018, 07:31:15 PM by mr j »
 

MickyP

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #51 on: June 11, 2018, 07:45:07 PM »
Regarding your question; how do you determine what three numbers to play? Can you give some guidelines to this method?
The details of the system don't really matter, and I didn't have a particular one in mind anyway. The point is that it's possible to evaluate the results of ANY system purely from a statistical point of view without knowing WHY it works. But as I mentioned, it's always better if you can give logical reasons (such as physics, bias etc, ie cause & effect), and then the statistical analysis only serves as confirmation of your "theory", or not.

Statistical analysis will have to be confirmed over several tests. Unfortunately this {statistics} is not a field of study I can speak with authority on but if rational, logical reasoning dictates the value of a method then that value is credible to a point where if it can be replicated in new tests then the value should be treated as fact. 
 
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Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #52 on: October 21, 2018, 02:49:15 PM »
by analyzing 100k's or millions of spins we can get a better appreciation of worst case scenario of a system and make more educated decisions about when to exit a game or cut our profit/losses. It's not necessary imo but is an valuable asset in our arsenal. After all... gambling for the serious individual can be likened to a war
 
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scepticus

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #53 on: October 21, 2018, 03:35:08 PM »
There's no secret method or foolproof way to determine whether results are due to chance, only degrees of probability. (  Mike  ) I agree

I did it all on my own, no begging involved. So when I hear.....why does your method work Ken? I'm not too sure I NEED/can answer that?  ( ken )I agree . If it works it works but I think you need to have a REAsON for betting.

 if rational, logical reasoning dictates the value of a method then that value is credible to a point where if it can be replicated in new tests then the value should be treated as fact.   ( Micky P )I agree . An educated guess  IS the best we can do.

All statistics need INTERPRETING and opinions sometimes difffer on this.
Gambling can be FUN if you don't get caught up in it's frustrations !
 
« Last Edit: October 21, 2018, 03:40:07 PM by scepticus »
 

gizmotron

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #54 on: October 21, 2018, 04:04:12 PM »
Here is why I could use a sim to find out information about effectiveness regarding a method. Take trends for instance. If you can program an app you can get real data on triples and quadruples, on how many occurs in an average 100 spin cycle. That's when you get a triple of something but now a fourth repeat of it also happens. It's all statistical data that tends to follow the expected math. But then there is variance  to consider too. You can learn that variance has moments when there are more quads than there are triples. I mean an entire 100 spin sequence can have a dominance of quads verses triples. Now the outcomes are still following the expected math. The probability never changed. But the sim can teach you how to recognize favorable variance conditions. It becomes knowledge and it leads to becoming a skill if you want to learn it.  There is no consideration for prediction. It is just knowledge that allows you to exploit it if it just happens to continue. It can teach you how to play off of domination.

So I would use sims to learn about the nature of a method.
 
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scepticus

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #55 on: October 21, 2018, 07:30:30 PM »
 " if it just happens to continue." gizmo
And if it does NOT continue  ?
So the question still remains " How can you PREDICT  when it will continie. What you have posted is " stating the obvious "! 
 

gizmotron

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #56 on: October 21, 2018, 07:48:01 PM »
" if it just happens to continue." gizmo
And if it does NOT continue  ?
So the question still remains " How can you PREDICT  when it will continie. What you have posted is " stating the obvious "!

You can't predict when it will continue. So it stands to reason that you must have a method to live with the facts. You can't predict it will continue or stop. That is accepted. So what do you think needs to be done about that? How do you live with this inability and make money too? You got that figured out yet? I do. It's the question all people ask when they try trends. A few have figured it out. They share secrets and hints on most of the forums.
 
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scepticus

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #57 on: October 21, 2018, 07:59:12 PM »
So you claim  that you and others have the HG ? Share " Secrets ". If it is shared it is not a secret .
No matter how much data you have it MUST be interpreted so It is the interpretation that is the difficult part.
A " prediction " is a " forecast" so we all "predict" the winning number when we bet,
I agreed with Mike when he  wrote"There's no secret method or foolproof way to determine whether results are due to chance, only degrees of probability." (  Mike  )
« Last Edit: October 21, 2018, 08:05:23 PM by scepticus »
 

gizmotron

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #58 on: October 21, 2018, 09:06:24 PM »
So you claim  that you and others have the HG ? Share " Secrets ". If it is shared it is not a secret .
No matter how much data you have it MUST be interpreted so It is the interpretation that is the difficult part.
A " prediction " is a " forecast" so we all "predict" the winning number when we bet,
I agreed with Mike when he  wrote"There's no secret method or foolproof way to determine whether results are due to chance, only degrees of probability." (  Mike  )

Was it this forum?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRCtBRsLPmk&feature=youtu.be [nofollow]  ; 17 minutes

From that I formed a method to flip the concept and play Roulette like a professional stock player. The video caused me to step back and see an even bigger picture. I have struggled for years with self control and knowing when to take my wins and losses in a strategic way. Now I have that added to the skills of waiting for opportunities. 

If you play roulette like this guy gambles on the stock exchange then you don't need to predict anything.
 
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scepticus

Re: why would someone test a method using simulation software?
« Reply #59 on: October 22, 2018, 12:03:01 AM »
" This guy " (adam khoo ) runs training courses .Says he will  show you how to make a million if you folow his instructions . If you believe that sort of hype  then you are a sucker .
Oh   And he will ONLY charge you half price if you sign up NOW  ! Only  $ 788 . Why does he run  training  courses and write a fair number of books on trading  if he can win  MILLIONS on the Stock Markets ?

METHOD + MONEY + MIND = TRADING SUCCESSSound familiar ? Just sign up folks and I'll show you how to make your first  million !
I hope you didn't purchase one of his books , gizmo ,  or sign up for one of his courses. Then again since you have bought into the hype  I wouldn't  be surprised if you bought both .
 
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