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Scarface

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Question on Probability
« on: April 14, 2018, 06:23:56 PM »
Hi, can I get any help from the math guys?  I've been having alot of success picking numbers on intuition.  My plan is to play 3 numbers only.

Anyway, my question is what is the probability that I should lose at 100 spins....or 1000 spins?  Playing 3 numbers only
 

Scarface

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2018, 06:25:27 PM »
I want to test this long term.  But I need to know how many spins I should test this for so it would matter statistically, and not be just by luck.  I know the more spins the better
 

kav

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2018, 08:42:54 PM »
Spins		Probability % to...		...hit at least once	...hit exactly once	...hit more than once	...sleep all spins1		8.108108108108098	8.108108108108098	0	91.89189189189192		15.558802045288516	14.90138787436085	0.657414170927666	84.441197954711483		22.405385663238093	20.53975085384874	1.865634809389352	77.594614336761914		28.696840879732292	25.165820865976837	3.5310200137554553	71.303159120267715		34.47817810569995	28.906686129838263	5.57149197586169	65.521821894300056		39.790758259291835	31.87548092155138	7.915277337740456	60.2092417407081657		44.672588670700605	34.17281287986139	10.499775790839216	55.3274113292993958		49.15859499469784	35.888050591977986	13.270544402719857	50.841405005302169		53.28087107620883	37.100484733598876	16.180386342609957	46.7191289237911710		57.06890855651622	37.88037480307392	19.1885337534423	42.9310914434837811		60.54980786274463	38.28989236851256	22.259915494232068	39.4501921372553712		63.748472090089656	38.38397072814036	25.364501361949294	36.25152790991034413		66.68778516386618	38.21106995909469	28.476715204771494	33.31221483613382614		69.38877555598512	37.813865489665424	31.574910066319696	30.61122444401487315		71.87076672712146	37.22986756704512	34.640899160076344	28.12923327287853316		74.15151537086837	36.49197829995053	37.659537070917835	25.8484846291316317		76.24733844890606	35.62899232664089	40.61834612226517	23.75266155109393318		78.17322992602179	34.66604658808304	43.50718333793875	21.82677007397820619		79.94296804012814	33.62502416802048	46.317943872107655	20.05703195987186820		81.56921387471233	32.52491669168411	49.04429718302822	18.43078612528766421		83.06360193892485	31.382149348462782	51.681452590462065	16.9363980610751522		84.43682340333635	30.21087221705297	54.22595118628338	15.56317659666365623		85.69870258684962	29.023221220805198	56.67548136604442	14.30129741315038524		86.85826724196991	27.82955172288724	59.028715519082674	13.14173275803008625		87.92381314126965	26.638647482493422	61.28516565877622	12.07618685873034926		88.90296342711265	25.457907431918034	63.44505599519462	11.0970365728873527		89.80272314923866	24.293512497402034	65.50921065183663	10.19727685076134828		90.62952938038146	23.150574471998738	67.47895490838272	9.37047061961853729		91.38929726845865	22.033268754238183	69.35602851422047	8.61070273154135730		92.08746235479983	20.944952590235733	71.1425097645641	7.91253764520016831		92.72901946116741	19.888270297395017	72.84074916377239	7.27098053883258732		93.31855842377546	18.865246803457524	74.45331162031793	6.681441576224540533		93.86029692995582	17.877370703952153	75.98292622600367	6.13970307004417334		94.35811069239185	16.925667922824477	77.43244276956737	5.64188930760815935		94.8155611767925	16.010766954023158	78.80479422276935	5.18443882320749836		95.23592108137689	15.132956565038103	80.10296451633879	4.76407891862310737		95.62219775045445	14.29223675586932	81.32996099458512	4.377802249545557538		95.97715468960678	13.488363687789015	82.48879100181776	4.02284531039321639		96.30333133639542	12.720889224756927	83.58244211163849	3.696668663604576540		96.60306122803904	11.989195665744571	84.61386556229446	3.396938771960962741		96.87848869603587	11.292526187870228	85.58596250816565	3.121511303964128542		97.1315842071681	10.63001146755352	86.50157273961459	2.868415792831901643		97.36415846064095	10.000692899332847	87.3634655613081	2.635841539359044644		97.5778753422106	9.4035427890647	88.1743325531459	2.42212465778939345		97.77426382797732	8.837481859501839	88.93678196847549	2.22573617202268546		97.95472892300619	8.301394371327852	89.65333455167834	2.045271076993819447		98.1205617130327	7.794141131246717	90.32642058178598	1.879438286967293648		98.27294860116518	7.3145706303591975	90.95837797080598	1.727051398834810649		98.41297979566531	6.861528530505869	91.55145126515944	1.587020204334690850		98.54165710953028	6.433865693248747	92.10779141628153	1.45834289046971651		98.65990112767648	6.0304449254558525	92.62945620222062	1.340098872323522852		98.768557793	5.650146596823502	93.1184111961765	1.231442206999994253		98.86840445843244	5.291873267918894	93.57653119051355	1.131595541567562354		98.96015544828927	4.954553452268787	94.00560199602049	1.03984455171073355		99.04446716869825	4.6371446224938095	94.40732254620444	0.955532831301754656		99.12194280366866	4.338635558343102	94.78330724532556	0.878057196331342357		99.19313663039823	4.058048123585393	95.13508850681283	0.806863369601773858		99.25855798469026	3.7944385489380714	95.46411943575218	0.741442015309738359		99.31867490485051	3.546898289454694	95.77177661539582	0.681325095149489260		99.3739174801329	3.314554516943461	96.05936296318944	0.626082519867098361		99.42468092768969	3.096570300964297	96.32811062672539	0.575319072310306462		99.47132842003917	2.892144525668027	96.57918389437114	0.528671579960822363		99.51419368327925	2.7005115841242002	96.81368209915505	0.485806316720755664		99.55358338463498	2.520940886767164	97.03264249786781	0.4464166153650187565		99.58977932642134	2.3527362161129366	97.2370431103084	0.410220673578665966		99.6230404621169	2.195234955907455	97.42780550620945	0.376959537883098467		99.65360474897228	2.047807219310886	97.6057975296614	0.3463952510277120768		99.68169085040697	1.9098548975581964	97.77183595284878	0.3183091495930327569		99.70749970037397	1.7808106477231833	97.92668905265079	0.292500299626030170		99.73121594088418	1.660136835715306	98.07107910516888	0.268784059115811571		99.75300924297466	1.5473244484234554	98.2056847945512	0.2469907570253402672		99.77303552057131	1.4418919869587432	98.33114353361258	0.2269644794286910873		99.79143804593039	1.3433843512130634	98.44805369471733	0.2085619540696080674		99.80834847463873	1.2513717244176485	98.55697675022108	0.1916515253612614875		99.82388778750587	1.1654484650346983	98.65843932247117	0.1761122124941321776		99.83816715608647	1.0852320121260037	98.75293514396047	0.1618328439135268777		99.8512887380254	1.0103618092979652	98.84092692872744	0.1487112619745922578		99.86334640791524	0.9404982514068808	98.92284815650837	0.1366535920847604779		99.87442642889509	0.8753216574077901	98.9991047714873	0.1255735711049150480		99.88460806979549	0.8145312720318815	99.0700767977636	0.1153919302045165381		99.8939641722445	0.7578442983702032	99.13611987387429	0.1060358277555016982		99.90256167179224	0.7049949629149571	99.19756670887729	0.0974383282077583283		99.91046207678205	0.6557336141549142	99.25472846262714	0.0895379232179400784		99.91772190839433	0.6098258554302945	99.30789605296403	0.0822780916056746785		99.924393105011	0.5670517124174876	99.35734139259353	0.0756068949889983586		99.93052339379389	0.5272048353286912	99.4033185584652	0.069476606206106687		99.93615663213492	0.49009173567010333	99.44606489646482	0.0638433678650709388		99.94133312142128	0.455531057199425	99.48580206422186	0.0586668785787138489		99.9460898953601	0.4233528805545026	99.5227370148056	0.053910104639899290		99.9504609849255	0.39339806088575097	99.55706292403976	0.0495390150745019791		99.95447766182343	0.36551759771186587	99.58896006411156	0.0455223381765693992		99.95816866221612	0.339572036127923	99.6185966260882	0.0418313377838745893		99.96156039230671	0.31543089842435157	99.64612949388236	0.0384396076932901594		99.96467711725481	0.29297214512183306	99.67170497213297	0.0353228827451855595		99.96754113477469	0.27208166438859144	99.6954594703861	0.0324588652253056496		99.97017293465782	0.2526527887807574	99.71752014587707	0.02982706534217275597		99.97259134536125	0.23458583823168302	99.73800550712957	0.02740865463875334698		99.97481366871034	0.21778768821063468	99.7570259804997	0.02518633128966523699		99.97685580367977	0.20217136197379934	99.77468444170597	0.023144196320232922100		99.97873236013817	0.1876556458397264	99.79107671429844	0.02126763986183566
 

Scarface

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2018, 09:37:52 PM »
Thanks for the info Kav.  But really, I'm looking for the probability of being at break even or in profit over 100 spins, or 1000 spins.  I have no idea how to calculate that.  Guess I can test anyways and see how I do
 

Mike

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2018, 08:20:40 AM »
Scarface,

You need the binomial distribution to calculate it, but first have to find the break even number of wins. In 100 trials you will on average win 100 * (3/37) = 8.1 times, and just multiply by 10 to get the number of wins in 1000 trials ie, 81.

Then using a binomial distribution calculator the probability of getting more than 8 wins in 100 trials is 42.3%, and for more than 81 wins in 1000 trials the probability is 47.5%.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2018, 08:22:33 AM by Mike »
 
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Scarface

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2018, 02:50:07 PM »
Thanks Mike!  But shouldn't the probability of winning in 1000 spins be less than 100 spins due to the house edge?
 

MickyP

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2018, 05:34:51 PM »
It's proportionate and the% remains the same.
 

Scarface

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2018, 07:52:02 PM »
I think I kind of figured it out.  If the house has an edge of 2.7%, and I bet $1 on 3 numbers each spin then I should expect to lose 8.1 cents per spin.  So, in 100 spins I should lose $8.10...in 1200 spins loss should be $97.  Just trying to see if I can beat house edge in 1200 spins without using a progression  :)
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2018, 01:46:42 PM »

 The features on a wager of 3 random numbers or three particular numbers are the same. It stay a 3 number bet. The short run event of a 3 number bet is very large. What kind of progression do yo use? In the short run every thing is possible. With a strategy and hot and run you can be successful. Break even points are random and very rare.
The results of an Excelprogram  can give you the answers.
here two examples, one of a 5 number bet and one for a 12 number bet. Without such diagrams , you can not analyse systems. For the short run probability theory has less value.
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2018, 02:32:59 PM »
Scarface, you will never beat the house edge. It's mathematical way wired into the game. However, you can beat the house if you aquire players edge. If your players edge is higher then house edge... it's good, nice.
    How to abuse on players edge( way to bet optimally ) will depend on how much of it you are able to aquire and hold. With 3 numbers bet mistakes are cheaper...
 

kkvv33

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2018, 06:08:28 PM »
hallo i have a question about  .......
betting progression system..

  what i need to lo lerne , so i can be to be in a position ,  to create my own betting progression system ?

like 1 3 2 6 system,,,,,,D'Alembert
« Last Edit: May 23, 2018, 06:09:59 PM by kkvv33 »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2018, 08:28:36 AM »
Kkvv3@
  To create progression that makes sense,  you need to understand why progressions are used in general.
   Learn to estimate the edge you are playing with. Simplest example will be half wheel bet. For simplicity of explanation let's assume that zero is simply a number belonging to other half and you not betting it.
   You will have hits to your half wheel and hits out..  it will form sequence of wins (W) and losses (L).
  Something like
W
L
W
L
W
L...ets.
   In example above you can see that wins are as frequent as losses. You adge over casino is not existent . As long as W are as frequent as L, you can upply any progression, martingale, d'alambert,  fibonachi. .. everything will do and you will make money.
   Other story if ( in example above) wins and losses are grouped... something like
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
W...ets
   In this case you may have strings of wins and string of losses consequtively. Obviously that progressing up all the way ( martingale)on the loss is worst thing you can do and progressing up on the win(martingale) is not solution as well. You could meet table limit on the way down , or give away all the winnings on next loss when going up.
   You will need to design progression that bet less when you loose and bet more then you win.  Or something that put up bets independently of your win or loss and resets when you achieve next bankroll level.
    Up till now it's all theoretical bla bla bla... because we can not predict sequence of wins and losses when we do not know % of the edge we are playing with.
    When we know the % and can hold it, it's a bit other story. In this case we can reasonably expect higher frequency of winnings (W) and these naturally will have to be present in resulting sequence of W/L...
  The fact of extra W will by itself reduce likehood of longer strings of losses and produce longer strings of W. So you need to design your progression to account for this fact.
  When designing progression to remember :
1. Progression need to produce result better then flat bet.
2. Progression is not to be allowed for risk/ reward ratio to skyrocket. 
3. Progression is to provide maximum money take in minimum reasonable time in majority of play situations.
  Hope it helps.
  As long as you remember that progression is just a tool and you need a proper tool for specific job( w/l sequence ), you will be fine.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2018, 08:35:29 AM by MrPerfect. »
 
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dobbelsteen

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2018, 09:41:42 AM »

[font=] when we do not know % of the edge we are playing with. to estimate the edge you are playing with.[/font]

[font=]Please can you explain what you mean with "EDGE ". Everybody knows the House Edge, but this edge is total something else.[/font]
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2018, 10:49:26 AM »
I mean players edge, obviously. 
 

kkvv33

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Re: Question on Probability
« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2018, 04:43:16 PM »
so you need first the data     (W.W.W.L.W.L.L.L.W........)   ,after that i create a betting progression system  , but what must i learn
 math statistics probability ?

to be able to create a progressive system