Can the past show the future?

[kav]

In all kinds of prediction, a very strong trend is to use patterns from the past to predict the future.

Take technical analysis for example. They try to identify trends, patterns and waves in order to forecast the (short or long term) future. If you go to the core of the technical analysis, it says

• history teaches us some patterns of price movement
• the current situation belongs to this patterns
• thus this is how the situation will evolve

But this is not limited to technical analysis. Many roulette precognition methods are based on historical data and past experience. I know someone who claims that he knows (has identified) connections between numbers by examining many thousands of spins. After 34 comes 7 more often that any other number etc.  Even AP is based on analysis of past data.

I believe human brain is hardcoded to give great importance to historic or past data and expecting that they will repeat themselves. If someone walks the road with red and nothing happens to him, he tends to believe that this is ok and will repeat it. While if someone walks with green and accidentally a car hits him, he will be afraid even when passing the street with green. In this case "history" gives false information about what may be dangerous or not and logically we know it, but our instincts, based on past facts, tell us that history will repeat itself.

The player with the bad system, who got lucky will feel extra confidence, while the guy with the good system who faced the sequence from hell will feel completely defeated. We just can't stop believing that history will repeat itself. If something happened before, it will happen again.

I was reading lately about pattern recognition and waves in roulette and I understand that all these are based on the principle of "learn from the past". And being a contrarian by nature I though "why should history repeat itself? Even if we were able to identify concrete patterns and number connections by analyzing millions of spins, why should they help us predict future results,? Why should these phenomena repeat themselves? In a random game, maybe we should take the fact that something happened in the past, as an indication that it will not happen again in the future."

And i'm talking about millions of spins. Say we analyzed 10 millions spins from various roulette tables and various casinos and found that after 34 comes 7 with a rate of 5% instead of the expected 2,7%. What would this mean to you?

Anyway my general observation is that humans take history and past, very very seriously, when making predictions. Sometimes it works. Sometimes though, past can be misleading.

Your thoughts?

[cht]

If anyone were to forecast the future, he has to observe the past quantifiable data.

Every form of forecasting in any field involves study of past data and that is based on sound inductive statistics that projects the past into the future.

Aside from past data, what else do you have ?
Time travel, back from the future ......

If the criticisms are leveled at predictions of future events based on past data in gambling, then that same criticism has to be made against every other similar usage in other fields.

[Rinad]

    I can have a explanation about certain patterns that are happening with a wheel that only holds 38 numbers.

  players have always noticed "numbers following certain numbers or combinations,ect..."  to their credits they are not having "hallucinations" or just false intuitions.
I believe their subconscious have recorded tremendous amounts of data, hours and hours of seeking any type of patterns. just because patterns just dont always repeat it does not mean they dont exist. and often when we see them fail to happen we just disregard their claims.
but not so fast my friend, they do see something, I think. it is just hard to design a strategy around it.
as to Kav mentioning the example of the number 34 followed by number 7, why not? if I look at thousands or millions of spins and I see it happen I will ask myself "why"?   the game is random ?  or maybe not so random?

remember this action;  every single time the ball lands on "34", he phisicaly picks it up, making a similar gesture with his arm, and throw the ball "pretty much from the same place", doing it over and over.
yes dealers are different, some taller, some shorter, but still, THEY RE-ACTING THE SAME MOTION FROM THE EXACT SAME NUMBER 34 AND SLING SHOT THE BALL IN THE SAME WAY, OR CLOSE TO IT.
so millions of times this is happening.  the ball can have different speed, yes, but they also have and hold the" picking up the ball", same spot, always. there is the common factor that could explain the "why number 7" follows number 34. ?   just a guess.
good topic,
Rinad

[MrPerfect.]

Do not complicate things... wheels are not perfect..
That is short explanation to anything you may see there. If you are patient enough,  you will find long explanation between my posts as well....
 In few words, numbers that hit more do form patterns like distances ( fake ds ), numbers following numbers..ets.

[Scarface]

I've seen it matter when it comes to dealers.  One dealer I could have constant wins.  A new dealer comes in, and I get straight losses.  Original dealer comes back, and I'm winning again! 

I see it alot at the casino, that some people will only play with certain dealers, and leave when another is switched out

[MickyP]

History does repeat itself and it is only confirmed after the fact (hindsight). The fact is recorded if it happens again and again. We identify the circumstances around the repeat and convince ourselves that when these circumstances surface we can predict the outcome. One could call it a calculated guess based on observation.
The notion that zeros come in packs is common with many players because the zero is seen as an "exclusive" number and special attention is placed on it but does it behave any differently to the other numbers? No; it behaves the same as any number within a cycle. It repeats in the same manner as other numbers do; sometimes two, three or more times and sometimes only in the next cycle.
The law of thirds occurs in every cycle. The result is clear but the circumstances to reach the fact vary to a large degree. In other words our expectation is met but in the sequence that it happens is the challenge to correctly predict while knowing the future result to a comfortable degree.

[Bebediktus]

The law of thirds occurs in every cycle. The result is clear but the circumstances to reach the fact vary to a large degree. In other words our expectation is met but in the sequence that it happens is the challenge to correctly predict while knowing the future result to a comfortable degree.

First moment is that is no any law of third. You cant name as law - some result of something. The same like if you will say that are law of wining in tennis - which mean , that somebody must win... yes that is in every set , but what from that ? We still not know who will win acordingly such law...

How past at all can show future ? - Here are all very simple - if we have some history of events - we can calculate chance, that such events are random. If such chance is very small we can think, that events , which looks like random - are not random in reality. Such not random events is possible to predict.

In roulette player very often not know, which events are random ( not predictable ) and which are not random ( predictable ). They mix them and that is reason of most loosings, even for AP players when they think that something is not random and must be also in future.

So main thing is to detect what is random , what is no and predict these lasts.... 

[MickyP]

It is the perception of what a law is.
The law of thirds does exist. The wording of the law is where the misconceptions lie.
The law of thirds will say something like. ..On average there will about 12 repeating numbers in a 37 spin cycle....
The words, "average" and "about" are used to confirm that it is not exact.
Our written history is plagued with such words but we accept it as fact. Medicine, science or anything where the result is not exact is accepted as fact. Why can the law of thirds not be accepted as fact as well?

"We can calculate chance" is another open to misinterpretation phrase.

Random in roulette is limited to one of 37 numbers appearing on every spin. It is natural that with limited numbers (37) patterns and trends will form. Predicting how long a pattern or trend will continue ia not an exact science.
Reduce random choice from 37 numbers to 3 sets of 12 numbers (dozen) (+0). Even with few options the science is not exact but we can get to a point where we could predict with a degree of accuracy that one dozen will come up in three spins (normal expectation). We get to this conclusion by relying on the occurrence and results from naturally formed patterns.

Bebediktus, you make valid points. I like the way you think and present your thoughts.

[MrPerfect.]

One dousen hitting within 3 spins is what an expectation says.... plus minus variance.  However if one particular dousen actually hits within any 3 spins on majority of the time ( more often then probability dictates) , then there is something that reduces variance ... and this something,  if confirmed statistically, can become a target.

[petespin]

I ll try to answer with a qiestion , lets suppose that humans had the chance to live not for 75 years on ave as it happens ,but for 2,000 or even more , then do u think future would be predictable?

[MickyP]

It will become a case of survival of the fittest. Population will be a lot smaller due to war. No prisoners because you have to feed them for a thousand years or more.

Changing the goalpost will not alter human nature.

[petespin]

Imo people after ve seen thousands events on their way of life , they could predict the future, past can does show the future , but our lives are too short to see clearly, time is the enemy, who knows ? In the near future maybe humans could live for too long...

[MrPerfect.]

I spent less then 10 years in this game and already observed more then 1.5 million spins.
Many spent 50 years in the game without observing one.... it's not about time available,  it's about how this time is used.
    There is a good way to multiply experience. Compare your knowledge with other players knowledge.    Many years can be economised like that.

[petespin]

Yes agree but time makes u better psycologist , unless u re so stupid person that u cant see or feel anything , this category is an exception ,iam talkin about having an normal iq ,and to accept other giys opinions , like u say to compare with them .

[MrPerfect.]

Fu..k opinions!!! And other guys who express them. Both opinions and their holders worth nothing.
  What matters is a knolledge, and the knowledge is a product of the study and personal experience. 
   I do not respect anyone holding any "opinion".  If someone consider themselves inferior to others and accept their autority or ideas without reasoning or logical judgment, it just shows incapacity of their own brain. So f*** debilitated people and their " oppinions". Only studies performed by someone are to be considered as personal experience and evidence of such a study should be presented as a reason to state something as a fact.
   That's all l got to say about this matter.