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Author Topic: Hits v Repeaters  (Read 6835 times)

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Reyth

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #30 on: April 06, 2018, 06:36:09 PM »
Here is a method for using loothog to make the progressions produce a profit without having to double up every time:

1) Count the number of selections being bet
2) Select that number in the dropdown for 35:1 and generate the progression
3) When the total number of selections changes, generate a new progression from the dropdown and continue in the progression from the equivalent point where you were in the former progression

The loothog progressions guarantee a profit with every bet; they are the martingale for 35:1 numbers.

For example, if we are betting 16 numbers, we don't have to bet 1 2 4 8 16, instead we can bet 1 1 2 4 7 which is only 15 "units" risked versus 31!  And notice the profit is still dynamic too! :D



If we want 2 wins to produce a profit, we can divide by 2 rounding up
If we want 3 wins to produce a profit, we can divide by 3 rounding up
etc.

A wagering plan can be constructed that will be quite strong against the worst sequences. :)

WHOAH!  I just discovered that we can set the "Minimum Profit" to negative numbers!  So for example, if we set it to -11, we find the progression 1 1 2 3 will only lose 4 units on the 4th bet but otherwise produce profit.  Harry J used to do things like that with his progressions. :)

Here is 32 units using Loothog: 

https://roulette-simulator.info/game/6a7350ddd053ab057d32e6f5702ca5cc

I tried to record it but the software crashed! >.<

https://youtu.be/NXVDUgw_aWA
« Last Edit: April 06, 2018, 07:48:47 PM by Reyth »
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #31 on: April 06, 2018, 08:09:30 PM »
Thanks Reyth, that's a useful tool. Although if betting on 17 numbers you still have to more or less double up:

Progression

Bet 1 for 2 spins.
Bet 2 for 1 spins.
Bet 4 for 1 spins.
Bet 8 for 1 spins.
Bet 15 for 1 spins.

You can also go up to 28 units on the next spin if you have the bankroll (986 units, so I would have this with my £10 starting amount). Betting wisely, whether you're on repeats or news at this point, to not win in 6 spins is almost unthinkable.

If betting 20 numbers then you double up 1, 2, 4 then up to 9 and then 21! That's just to be in profit by 1 unit as well. That's a whopping increase on spin 5, and one to avoid, though bankroll is only 740 units.

As I keep saying, for me if you get to 4 spins with this and haven't hit, then something is off about the pattern and I would wait for a later chance. Still, if you are betting at the right time on 20 numbers it would be very unlikely to happen anyway.

 
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MickyP

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #32 on: April 06, 2018, 08:24:30 PM »
I ran a test on a few cycles to get familiar with the play and the game keeps you busy with comparisons but it's great when you get your assumptions right and the wins roll in. All in all, positive tests.

I only play at B/M tables so I'm concerned with the high chip outlay. On a R10 table my bankroll would have to be R10 000. So actually playing this for real scares me a bit. I'll keep on testing and looking at ways to make it more table friendly.
4 sessions in a day would net an average of about  80 units per session or 320 units for the day. My current win goal per day can be reached in one session. The risk vs reward remains high but still worth looking into how to improve play.

Sam41, the breakdown of your play in your posts has helped greatly with getting to grips with when and what to play. Thanks.
 
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DrTalos

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #33 on: April 06, 2018, 09:06:19 PM »
I tried several times to use the Law of the Third in a single cycle, but I could never reach an acceptable result. I am following this thread with a lot of curiosity.
  Just bringing my personal experience, I had a cycle with 32 single numbers and 5 repeaters (in a B&M casino with a live dealer), that killed my experience with this option.

 
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Reyth

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #34 on: April 06, 2018, 10:59:08 PM »
Here is a raw data dump while I work out the details:

Uniques
 15   4  0.000009250009 0.000009250009
 16   25  0.00005781256 0.000067062569
 17   203  0.000469438 0.000536500569

 ----------------------------------------------------------
 18   1240  0.002867503 0.003404003569
 19   5003  0.01156945 0.014973453569
 20   15771  0.03647047 0.051443923569
 21   36157  0.08361315 0.135057073569
 22   64176  .1484071 0.283464173569
 23   86401  .1998025 0.483266673569
 24   88301  .2041963 0.687462973569
 25   69043  .1596621 0.847125073569
 26   40476  0.09360085 0.940725923569
 27   18075  0.04179848 0.982524403569
 28   5852  0.01353276 0.996057163569
 ----------------------------------------------------------
 29   1435  0.003318441 0.999375604569
 30   244  0.0005642506 0.999939855169
 31   24  0.00005550006 0.999995355229
 32   2  0.000004625005 0.999999980234


Repeats
 5   2  0.000004625005  0.000009250009
 6   24  0.00005550006  0.000067062569
 7   244  0.0005642506 0.000536500569

 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
 8   1435  0.003318441  0.003404003569
 9   5852  0.01353276  0.014973453569
 10   18075  0.04179848  0.051443923569
 11   40476  0.09360085  0.135057073569
 12   69043  .1596621  0.283464173569
 13   88301  .2041963  0.483266673569
 14   86401  .1998025 0.687462973569
 15   64176  .1484071 0.847125073569
 16   36157  0.08361315 0.940725923569
 17   15771  0.03647047 0.982524403569
 18   5003  0.01156945 0.996057163569
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
 19   1240  0.002867503 0.999375604569
 20   203  0.000469438 0.999939855169
 21   25  0.00005781256 0.999995355229
 22   4  0.000009250009 0.999999980234


This is the total number of uniques and repeats that occurred in 432,432 trials of 37 spin sessions. 

There were not less than 15 uniques nor more than 32.  There were not less than 5 repeats nor more than 22.  Anytime our progression is in range of these extremes, we DEFINITELY want to be betting. :D

Its kind of a bell curve where most of the time we will have 22-25 uniques and 12-15 repeaters.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2018, 01:26:20 AM by Reyth »
 
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leowls

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #35 on: April 07, 2018, 12:13:33 AM »
Thanks Reyth for the raw data it's what I have been looking for.

During my test I have often worked to 8-9 repeats at spin 34. Therefore it will almost certainty produce a hit within the last 3 spin. Now we have the stats to back us.
 

Junscissorhands

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #36 on: April 07, 2018, 12:14:59 AM »
Hi Sam,

I assume you're pretty new to roulette so i can understand that you find this approach to be new and refreshing.

But as DrTalos says this way of betting will definetely lose. Your way of thinking or play has been posted around 5 or 6 years ago by Vaddi before he created his HG.

The average is 10-12 repeaters in a 37 spin cycle. But 5 or 6 repeaters in a cycle is not rare. Here is the post :

1) Spin the wheel 37 times or track 37 spins at a live online casino.2) Flat-bet straight up, on ...14, or ...15, or ...16, or17 numbers that have not hit within those 37 spins.If your first bet wins, continue tracking.If your first bet loses, bet a second time.If your second bet wins, continue tracking.If your second bet loses, continue tracking.Tracking for another 37 spins is easy: Remove numbers from the bottom of the landed numbers column so that you will always have 37 spins in the column. Use the Remove button to achieve this.Don't bet on less than 14 numbers. And don't bet on more than 17 numbers.If there are less than 14 numbers that don't hit within the 37 spins, don't bet. Continue adding numbers that land, then removing numbers from the bottom of the landed column to maintain 37 spins in the column.If there are more than 17 numbers that don't hit within the 37 spins, don't bet. Continue adding numbers that land, then removing numbers from the bottom of the landed column to maintain 37 spins in the column.Don't use any progression with this strategy. Only flat-bet.   
« Last Edit: April 07, 2018, 12:17:19 AM by Junscissorhands »
 
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Reyth

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #37 on: April 07, 2018, 12:48:20 AM »
8 has a 99.6% chance of occurring and 9 is 98.5%.

I definitely like the 8 bet. :)

How much do you lose if in the last 3 spins, we don't get the 8th repeater?

(I definitely need less than 26 numbers bet and it gets more tangled in the progression when we have to add 2 more numbers to the mix...)



We will ALWAYS expect to receive 5 repeaters, in fact we will get MORE than 5 repeaters 99.9932937431% of the time and when ONLY 5 occur, its quite rare, being 1 in 108,108 37-spin cycles.

To put that in clearer perspective, if we played FIFTY 37 spin cycles EVERY SINGLE DAY, we would expect to see it an average of ONCE every 5.92 YEARS

If somehow we could play continuously at TWO 37 spin cycles an hour, we would expect to see it once every TWO MONTHS!
« Last Edit: April 07, 2018, 01:39:54 AM by Reyth »
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #38 on: April 07, 2018, 01:26:43 PM »
Hi Juns, yes im not surprised people have played similar ways before.  But I already posted about how we might deal with an unusual cycle.  We're not betting on every spin, nor betting continuously until a win. There should be signs in the first 18-24 spins that someting is off and we may not even play at all. If I  see 15 new numbers to start,  I would bet twice. If I haven't won yet I'd stop and see whats happening after 24 spins. If at this point I only have 0, 1 or 2 repeats I'd wait for 30 spins. Maybe by this point its safe to bet for  repeats, maybe not. Even if only 5 happen you'd expect 1 or 2 to be near the end of the cycle so over the final 6 or 7 spins you decide what will be. If I only have 4 repeats I would go ahead.

I would also use progression where the other player didn't. Ultimately it could lose but this is a very rare sequence and there are safeguards in place. I think a big loss is unlikely.

Micky - doesn't your casino offer any lower chip betting?  Mine have 10p and 25p options!

 
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MickyP

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #39 on: April 07, 2018, 01:48:17 PM »
The lowest bet on the tables countrywide is R10.00 and I just don't trust slot machine roulette (you must bet every spin) and air ball.  The "air ball in the new casino is digital so there's a pixel ball but what concerns me is that all bets are registered so the random may be programed to select bets with small payouts or none at all. I may be wrong but I don't have the inclination to see if I am.

I am still very intrigued by this method of play.
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #40 on: April 07, 2018, 02:01:36 PM »
And you can't play online anywhere? Even if you don't trust online, you can do it with small amounts as I've been doing to build up the bankroll then go to B&M?

I just did a session where 27 numbers hit, and this actually worked in my favour. As my bankroll had now more than doubled to £21, I began betting with 2p a unit instead of 1p. I won 131 units or £2.62 and this included one win where I forgot to double the stake so it should have been a bit more.

131 units is my new high! By 18 spins I'd only had 2 repeats, which is quite common, but for me the 2 repeats had come in the first 8 spins so I felt like another repeat was due soon. I decided to bet on the 16 numbers that had hit. In fact it took me 4 spins to get a win (by now betting on 19 numbers), so I knew this was a bit of an extreme cycle. Still, I worked this to my advantage, figuring it wouldn't be another 4 spins before the next repeat - and it wasn't, I got a win right away.

A few more spins without betting, I get to the 28th spin and find I have had 5 repeats. So already I have 23 numbers. Obviously I anticipate we're going to get more than 24 in this cycle, but even so some repeats have got to be coming up and there are only 9 spins left. I bet on the 23 numbers and win, then do it again and win again. I stop and its good I did as now 3 more new numbers come! 26 numbers in 33 spins. Whilst I am super confident of another repeat coming in the final 4 spins, I decide as I'd need to bet on 26 numbers it's not really worth it, the profit isn't going to be great anyway. I spin out and 3 of the final 4 spins are repeats so I'd have been fine, but what the hell. 131 units (and at double my previous wager level) and an unusual 27-10 cycle easily conquered! :)
« Last Edit: April 07, 2018, 02:06:47 PM by sam41 »
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #41 on: April 07, 2018, 03:27:05 PM »
Another session where it proved more wise to bet on repeaters, even though this meant betting 22, 23 numbers. It finished 25-12 but a lot of repeats came late on. I won 4 times with no misses, got myself around 70 units so not as good as the session before but still fine.  :)
 
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biturbo

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #42 on: April 07, 2018, 05:28:28 PM »
The run you are describing is exactly the thing I am aiming for. I don't usually bet, opposite to some messages above, when I am already at spins 33-37... IF the round is a normal one, meaning I have the usual 22-24 uniques at that time. I find it too risky, you can probably be dealing with an extreme run with 28 uniques and you end the round with a thick loss. What I am much more aiming for is big deviations as yours. Again, patience is the key here, wait for the moment at which you have 99% probability that your wished result is coming within the next three spins, then do Martingale or whatever you wanna do. It is coming. So I only bet at final spins if I reach there with extremes, either 17-18 numbers hit or already 27-28. Then I can fancy risking a few pennies more on hits or repeaters, respectively.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2018, 06:05:55 PM by biturbo »
 

MickyP

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #43 on: April 07, 2018, 05:39:15 PM »
Sam41, I've been giving your method a lot of thought and I will test it as a tool to determine where to place the Kavouras bet when playing it on Palestis single dozen system.
Judging by the way you make your choices when you play I can look at the past say 24 spins and create my 20 number bet selection from that.
It means more work but it gives purpose to bet placement.
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #44 on: April 08, 2018, 02:04:09 AM »
Yeah that would be a good way to reduce your outlay, if you can find corners or streets to bet on. You might get the odd number thats isolated but you can just have a unit on it, no big deal if you hit elsewhere and big returns if it does hit.

Just remember if betting on repeaters you need to add new numbers as they arrive for the next spin. I keep catching myself forgetting to do this,  luckily it hasn't mattered yet but it will soon if I keep forgetting!
 
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