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Author Topic: Hits v Repeaters  (Read 6832 times)

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biturbo

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2018, 05:32:41 PM »
Wonderful explanation, sam! I didn't understood the system completely until you made this step by step. I will probably try it a few times with pennies, sounds like a lot of fun :)
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #16 on: April 05, 2018, 08:28:55 PM »
Yes,  its always fun when you win I guess!  But I've been thinking. When we get an unusual cycle, will we be in trouble?  Lets see:

1. We have a cycle with 28 unique numbers and only 9 repeats. I would expect at 18 spins to see only 1 repeat, possibly none. So I probably would bet for a repeat now. I'd go for 2 spins and if I haven't won I would stop, because clearly this is an unusual pattern.  I'd reassess at 24 spins. Perhaps now I have 22 numbers and 2 repeats. With 13 spins left the worse case scenario is 8 more uniques (30 total. I know 32 is possible but so unlikely im not going to worry about it). So if I bet on already hit numbers, I still have great odds to win within 3-4 spins because no way 8 straight newbies are coming followed by a load of repeaters. Its going to be more mixed than that even though this is a bad cycle. I would try to profit on at least 2 repeaters over these final spins to make up for the earlier losses. Ultimately you might break even or win or lose a small amount but the point is 28, even 30 numbers in the cycle shouldn't destroy you if you play smart.

2. Only 16 numbers hit. Thats low! We're going to see a lot more repeats early on than is usual. We'll see 2 or 3 numbers hit 3 times, all before our 18th spin. Alarm bells should ring. You might not even bother with this, go find another wheel. But if you do, I'd wait for 24 spins again. Maybe we have 12 numbers. Eek. What to do? Honestly,  im waiting to 30 spins. Now maybe we have 14 numbers. You could bet them for more repeats but you can't be sure this weird sequence will continue. But we can be sure of at least one more number, as 15 is the lowest seen in millions of tests. Its unlikely to come at the end so chances are we'll get it within 5 spins. Its betting on 23 numbers with progression but a win is pretty much guaranteed.  And that's it. Again, you wont do great with this but you needn't lose a fortune either. Just dont see 8 or 9 numbers in the first 18 spins and think all you have to do is keep betting the unhits. Thats what could do damage here as they are coming few and far between.

Sooooo....theres your run from hell cycles covered. This is exciting. Im almost hoping the wheel will get me at some point because I want to know how I can lose and see if that can be overcome!
 
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biturbo

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #17 on: April 05, 2018, 09:52:12 PM »
I made four runs at that nice online simulator that Reyth was using and my results are quite encouraging, although I needed a lot of time checking for not doing mistakes, a time that I will not have on live roulettes, for sure. But I guess that I will get faster with time  ::)
My results:
+13 (24 numbers appeared)
+33 (24)
+109 (23)
+39 (24)

I have to add that at some point, when the game was at the last spins but I still felt that I should bet because of favorable odds (i.e. 8 spins left, 22 numbers already appeared), I bet on the splits instead of the single numbers.
But that is the kind of flexibility that the system is allowing. It is indeed a funny one to be played!
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2018, 12:16:26 AM »
Yes, I've not tried using splits yet but that could be good. I too find it takes time - I log the numbers in a spreadsheet and note the repeats, and I am forever putting them into numerical order so I can see easily which numbers have or haven't been hit yet (in order to place bets) then back again to the order they hit in. However with Evolution live wheels you get up to 500 spins of history so if playing on those you can easily track past spins and join the game when ready, though I would look for a wheel with a bit of time between spins. At B&M you should be fine and I find the betting stations at mine provide the last 20 numbers so again you can easily note down the first half and get going from there.

Anyway just played again, won 91 units. Had a run of 3 new numbers in a row and 16 numbers showing, and only 6 repeats. 15 spins left and expecting 8 new numbers, but as I'd just had 3 I thought this was the time to go for a repeat and I doubled my starting unit from 1p to 2p as I felt confident. It actually took me 4 spins to win which was a surprise, but I doubled my outlay each time so when it came in it was a good return (as I was only betting on 16 numbers). When the 3rd spin lost and it had produced 6 new numbers in a row I began to wonder if this was where it goes pear shaped, or where the RNG screws me over. But no!

I fancied another repeat at this point and got it next spin (back to 1p units though!) I then bagged a couple more wins towards the end and with 3 spins to go had 23 numbers - was it worth the risk to get one more? I decided it wasn't, and of course 2 more came. ;D But who cares, I won 91 units already. The cycle ended 25 numbers and 12 repeats.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2018, 12:21:25 AM by sam41 »
 
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GIAJJENNO

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #19 on: April 06, 2018, 12:27:21 AM »
Hi Sam, thanks for this interesting topic, and your playing style. I have a question, that when you start a session, how many spins do you wait to start betting? I know that each 37 spin cycle session is different, but what is the  minimum waiting line?

Thanks, and hope you will continue with success.

GIAJJENNO
 
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biturbo

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #20 on: April 06, 2018, 09:34:27 AM »
@sam: The split betting surely can be a nice system adapt for those not wanting to bet so many units of the bankroll. Should be something similar as that "red vs. blue" war that was referred above. But just to be clear: what I am doing is using it only at specific situations, I play the main part of the system on a "normal" way. The situation when I used is almost the same always: at spins 27 to 37, the last part of the cycle, I have cashed nice wins (>50 units) and I don't fancy risk anymore, I take your "Don't be greedy" advert very seriously because that can be the main weak point of the system, the adrenaline kick you get at these nice wins. Then, if I see something that really deserves betting because the odds are screaming, I look which of the numbers that I have to bet can be grouped in splits... and go for them. I very often hitted and cashed nice +10 units wins or similar.

@GIAJENNO: My (still short) experience talks about spin nr 18 to make a first evaluation of single hitters/repeats, around spin 20 for the first bet if the odds are good.
I am tracking the hits on a rudimentary grid and, in parallel, I note on a table:
Spins left - #Numbers left to appear to complete 24

So if after spin #22 I have something like 15-10, the odds are clearly on new numbers to appear and I bet on it. If the situation is 15-3, then the odds are clearly for repeaters.
And that is the fun about the system, it is really about fine feeling of the odds for/against but, although that flexible and subjective, it offers very nice results until now  ;D
Additionally, for me is a nice mental distraction when I am tired of playing more strict systems as the single dozens. They can be a good combination for a playing evening  ;D Start with Single dozens and, if you have cashed nice rewards, go and have some fun with this here  8)
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #21 on: April 06, 2018, 09:42:20 AM »
Yes I generally bet after 18 spins at the earliest but if I get 14 different numbers at the start with no repeats I'd bet for a repeat on the next 2 spins. Its all about using what the data gives you. The edge, as I see it,  is that we have a degree of certainty. We know repeats will come but they wont be common in the first 18 spins so there isn't usually much point betting early. The more data you have,  the better. I love to be at around spin 29, 30 and see I am still expecting 3 or 4 new numbers because you know one will appear within 3-4 spins at most. And as 20, 21 numbers already hit you are betting on less than half the field.
 
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biturbo

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #22 on: April 06, 2018, 01:15:40 PM »
Yes, I love that too, is the ideal situation because you know with above 95% certainty, that a new one is coming. Just need the right bet progression to assure winnings. Easy money.
Five more played to add at the list:
-1
0
-41
+89
+114

Total profit after 9 plays: 355
newbielink:https://roulette-simulator.info/user/b139e104214a08ae3f2ebcce149cdf6e [nonactive]

For the play with the -41 units loss: I got the usual 24 numbers, but very odd sequences of repeats and new hitters. At spin #22 (15 more to come) I had only 6 more new numbers to come... Therefore I went to bet on repeaters and ended up losing 4 bets on a row, because 4 new numbers came! I later could recover later (of course staying at the repeaters bet) but at the end of that evil sequence I was at -138 units.
Only time I saw it, for all other runs I usually reach a maximum of two losses on a row, the third repairs them.

 
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leowls

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #23 on: April 06, 2018, 03:31:55 PM »
Just wanna share what I have been getting thus far every 37 spins. This is a just a small data for reference.

23u/11r
26u/10r
19u/15r
24u/11r
25u/9r
20u/12r
22u/12r
25u/12r
21u/12r
25u/12r
23u/11r
24u/11r
19u/13r
24u/12r

I have seen 6 or 7 repeated numbers after spin 30. If we reach spin 33 or 34 and the repeated still stay at 7 or 8, we can do a marty bet all the way to spin 37 knowing we will definitely hit one of them. Anyway what's the lowest repeated number you guys got so far?
 
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biturbo

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #24 on: April 06, 2018, 05:06:18 PM »
I got more deviations above than under the expected 24. I think the lower I've ever seen is a 21, but got sometimes a 27 or 28. The majority of the runs were either a 23 or an exact 24, pure "magic" (here is where a system hater comes an laughs because we believe in magic  8) )

What progression are you using? I am raising 1 unit every bet when losing... are you doing Martingales?
 
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leowls

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #25 on: April 06, 2018, 05:29:36 PM »
Yes im using a 3 step marty.

I will bet on spin 35-37 depending on the ratio between unique and repeater.
If unique is at 17 or 18, i will bet on unique (new number) for the next 3 spins.
If repeater is at 7 or 8, i will bet on repeater for the next 3 spins.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2018, 05:31:41 PM by leowls »
 
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GIAJJENNO

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #26 on: April 06, 2018, 06:13:44 PM »
3 step marty can kill you, I think, dont you?
 

Reyth

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #27 on: April 06, 2018, 06:17:22 PM »
I can see how the "repeater" and "unique" groups can be rated for the historical (all past spins) performance of each number within the respective group.  We can test these groups for percentage chance to hit based on its rating.  They can be rated and tested in different ways too.

What can be produced is a tracker that outputs a continuous percentage chance to hit for both groups.
« Last Edit: April 06, 2018, 06:19:02 PM by Reyth »
 

sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #28 on: April 06, 2018, 06:24:55 PM »
That's interesting - are you guys playing live dealer or RNG? I've never had much variation so far, playing on the skyvegas RNG (low stakes) but this same game has definitely screwed with me in the past to the point where you can be pretty certain its cheating. Might be because I'm only wagering low stakes that it just runs 'normally' though. But yeah I only have had 23-25 numbers so far. Still, it goes to show losing is possible. Personally I might stop after 4 straight losses and wait for a better chance later in the cycle, then bet by reducing one level from where I'd got to, looking for 2 wins. This should help preserve the bankroll better.

Just won 81 units in a nice session. Reached a point where I had 3 repeats in a row and only 16 numbers had hit, so I bet on the remaining 21. I needed 2 spins (doubled up) and that came in. By spin 29 I only had 20 numbers so it was looking great for at least 1 more - I bet on the 17 unhit and won on 2nd spin. Had I kept betting, a further 4 more then followed! But I had my 81 units by this point. You wouldn't want to be betting repeats at this point, but I can't imagine why you would be - I'd just had 2 repeats and the stats pointed to a new number (probably a few) coming up. Smart betting is the key!
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #29 on: April 06, 2018, 06:27:43 PM »
3 step marty can kill you, I think, dont you?

It depends. If you're betting on 17 numbers and you double to 34 then 68, its a big hit but my experience so far is you'll almost certainly win on the next spin. If betting larger sums its probably wise to bet 17, 17, 34, 68 because although you only profit if the first spin wins, you manage the bankroll better. You can always come in again later in the cycle and bet 34 instead of 17 to open with.

You do need some bankroll though, I had £10 doing pennies which equates to £1000 to play £1 units. Although I've never even lost half of my BR in a sequence, it could happen. You'd probably be fine with £500 to do £1 units though and add your winnings to your BR.