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Author Topic: Hits v Repeaters  (Read 6830 times)

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sam41

Hits v Repeaters
« on: April 02, 2018, 11:46:56 PM »
So we know in the average cycle of 37 spins, there will be 24 hits. Sometimes 22 or 23, sometimes 25 or 26 but its usually right around the 24 mark.

So could we not look back at the last 30 spins on a table, and count how many unique numbers we see? Lets say it's 20 with 10 repeats. We then bet on the 17 unhit numbers based on the expectation that within this 37 spin cycle, there are going to be more than 20 unique numbers showing. It shouldn't take more than 2 or 3 spins to get a hit as we are anticipating that 4 more unique numbers will appear in the next 7 spins, or at least 3 more.

Similarly, if we see we already have 24 unique numbers and only 6 repeats, we would do well to bet the 24 already hit numbers as there are sure to be repeaters coming up in the next 7 spins.

If 17 is too many to bet on, why not look at which double streets have hit the most and bet on the unhit numbers in the 2 or 3 that have the fewest hits so far? Thinking about normal distribution, you'd expect when unhit numbers hit late in the cycle, they will come from the zones with the least hits so far.
 
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Reyth

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #1 on: April 03, 2018, 09:53:32 AM »
Great idea.  There is a guy on Youtube that seems an expert in these approaches.  I examined one of his systems here:

https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=705.msg10145#msg10145

What I discovered is that variance still applies to these sequences as well and since we must bet so many numbers, its more difficult to deal with it.
 

sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #2 on: April 03, 2018, 11:36:46 AM »
I've been testing it on RNG and it has been working well. Only tried it on free mode and playing pennies so far but won 140 units in 2 games on pennies, imagine if that had been pounds! Still early days but what I think works well is running the first 12 spins and having a look - if no repeats yet, then begin betting on for one but just 3 times. If by 15 spins there haven't been any repeaters you know you can expect to recoup your losses later on in the cycle when repeaters will start to show more.

If there have been a couple of repeats, keep spinning to 18 spins and re-assess. I had a game where there had only been 1 repeat by this point so I began to bet on the hit numbers and sure enough, 3 repeats came in. You don't need to bet on every spin if you've won though, i.e. don't be greedy. Repeated betting is only if you don't win first time.

And then as you get towards the end of the cycle, what I do is look at how many unique numbers have shown - lets say there have been 20 and we are anticipating 4 more to come, and 4 other spins to be repeaters. I would now bet on the unhit numbers because there are only 17 left, but its about 50-50 in terms of expected outcome. The likelihood is you will only need to spin 3 times at most, but even 4 is affordable with a good bankroll. I would be even more inclined to bet this way if the last couple of numbers to show were new ones as a repeat is likely coming.

I know some of this sounds a lot like gamblers fallacy, however one of the few things we KNOW in roulette is that a 37 spin cycle WILL have repeats, and most of the time we know it will be about 11-14 and the rest unique numbers. I don't think you can play this system in a set way (e.g. if this happens do this) you need to be a bit cerebral about it and look at what has a high chance to come up within the next 2 or 3 spins. You only need to get a couple of wins for high profit in order to gain quite a lot of units. Bank a high profit 3 or 4 times during the cycle and you should be up at least 50 units!
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #3 on: April 03, 2018, 08:18:45 PM »
Another good example from a game just there where I made 70 units. By spin 29 I only had 16 unique numbers, meaning over the next 8 spins I was expecting 5 or 6 more. I duly bet on the 21 remaining numbers and lost the first spin - but fear not, I doubled up and won next spin. New high profit. Ran 2 more spins without betting, 1 new number, 1 repeater. Decided to take a punt as I now had 4 more spins and still only 18 numbers. I bet on the 19 non showers and won, and would have won had I bet again after that. But there was no need - up 70 units after a 37 spin game, whats not to like?
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #4 on: April 03, 2018, 10:26:59 PM »
Last session won me 50 units, as I had a couple of runs where it took 3 or 4 spins to get a win but that was fine. I also won on the last spin as only 21 numbers had hit and with 3 spins left I was sure another would come. I was surprised to lose the first two spins but it came in at the end and that's what gave me my 50 unit profit. I'm very interested to see if this keeps working on RNG, especially if you start betting bigger sums. At the moment it seems RNG does reflect the reality of approximately 24 unique numbers appearing in a 37 spin cycle. 8)
 
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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2018, 03:05:04 AM »
Last session won me 50 units, as I had a couple of runs where it took 3 or 4 spins to get a win but that was fine. I also won on the last spin as only 21 numbers had hit and with 3 spins left I was sure another would come. I was surprised to lose the first two spins but it came in at the end and that's what gave me my 50 unit profit. I'm very interested to see if this keeps working on RNG, especially if you start betting bigger sums. At the moment it seems RNG does reflect the reality of approximately 24 unique numbers appearing in a 37 spin cycle. 8)

 I have had the same experience with RNG i.e. a 37/38 spin cycle usually produces 9-12 non hits or around 24 hits ( unique numbers).
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2018, 12:28:03 PM »
Just won 41 units as had a couple of runs where I had to increase 4 times but on the win it wasn't a complete recovery. So then when that happened again on the next series of bets, I still wasn't in a new high profit (though I was above where I'd started out) but by this point I had the data to suggest several repeats would be coming up, and they duly did. :) I then snagged one more win towards the end of the cycle and called it quits - still a nice profit though!
 
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Reyth

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2018, 01:44:28 PM »
Hmmmm, maybe this could be a way to lower our required bankroll?

I definitely need help with a method for "winning for less than profit and continuing to a new all time high"...

I wonder if your "down times" had you betting on numbers that were not historically the all time high (i.e. short term repeaters).
« Last Edit: April 04, 2018, 01:47:19 PM by Reyth »
 

Haywood

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2018, 06:24:02 PM »
Great idea.  There is a guy on Youtube that seems an expert in these approaches.  I examined one of his systems here:

https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=705.msg10145#msg10145

What I discovered is that variance still applies to these sequences as well and since we must bet so many numbers, its more difficult to deal with it.

Would you post the link to the YouTube Videos ?
 

sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2018, 06:46:29 PM »
I think Reyth what happened was, I bet on 15 repeaters, lost and bet again.  Lost, so doubled up to 2 units on each and lost so then increased to 3 units. If I'd doubled up I'd have been in new high profit but I think thats more risky. In case of an unusual run you dont want to have to keep doubling up. This was after 18 spins then when I won I waited until spun 24 and again repeaters looked due but I got 3 more new numbers before a win. However at this point its 28 spins and I have 21 numbers. So now the repeats really are due and sure enough 6 of the next 7 spins were. I think I bet twice, won and then nicked the final spin for the 41 units.

Better session just now though  - I noticed after 18 spins I had only 2 repeats but 8 numbers in the 2nd dozen had hit, with 4 each of the other dozens. Im expecting at least 10 more repeats, which guarantees at least 2 will come from the 2nd dozen, unless only new numbers repeat from here on in. So with odds like that I just bet on the 8 numbers in the 2nd dozen and got a hit immediately!  I thought, well Im still expecting at least one more so I repeated the bet, and again it came in immediately! Great stuff. I then went back to looking for chances to bet new or repeats and finished the session by spin 29 up 90 units. The last 8 spins were expected to produce 4 news and 4 repeats so I chose not to risk betting. In fact 6 repeats showed so it was probably wise as I'd have bet on the unhit numbers at this point.
 
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MickyP

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2018, 07:14:27 PM »
@sam41, I've been following this thread with interest. Thanks for your detailed explanations.
What I like is how you manage your bets. The bet selection is not static at all so nobody can work your play out.
One would have to test and practise enough to understand exactly when the right time to bet is and also what numbers to bet. So far this does look promising.
Thanks again.
 
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Reyth

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #11 on: April 04, 2018, 08:10:11 PM »
Yes, I am also following it.  I think there may be a deep secret here that can allow us to simultaneously track the historically hottest numbers AND the repeat/unique number flow, so we can improve our accuracy; i.e. when the historical and recent histories match.

If we improve our accuracy, we lower our required bankroll. :)

DEWD!  You NEED to make a video:

https://icecreamapps.com/Manuals/Screen-Recorder/system-requirements.html

And then upload it to YouTube. :)
« Last Edit: April 04, 2018, 08:12:11 PM by Reyth »
 
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sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #12 on: April 04, 2018, 08:31:27 PM »
Ha, I may do in time - still very early days with this and I'm still only betting pennies from a £10 bankroll (now up to £15.16!) but I've not lost a session yet or even come close really (though I should work out what my stop loss should be, I haven't done that yet as its such a trivial amount of money anyway). But what excites me is that where I win say, 70p in a session, that's 70 units. With a bankroll of £500 that would be £35. £1000 and it's £70, in like 10 minutes. Although at those levels I'd be playing live wheel for sure!

Anyway latest session - won 86 units. Was never really troubled, had one occasion where I lost and doubled up, won next spin. What I am finding interesting is that each session presents different challenges and things to think about. This session, I found myself on 24 spins and I'd not yet placed a bet! I just hadn't seen an opportunity, as all the way through it was about 50-50 in terms of expectation on what would be coming up. This is not really any good. Often after 18 spins you'll have 16 numbers, meaning from the next 19 spins you only expect 8 new numbers so odds are in favour of betting for a repeat (and its less than half the numbers to bet on which reduces outlay).

So in this session after 18 spins I had 15 numbers, meaning 9 more were expected against 10 repeats. Not great, so I carried on. After 24 spins I had 18 numbers and 6 had repeated, so now I expect 6 more new numbers and 7 repeats - still very middling! But I'm running out of time to bet! So I deployed the strategy mentioned in that link you provided, Reyth. I had my 2 groups of numbers and spin 24 had been a repeat, and spin 25 was a repeat so I now bet on the unhit numbers and got 2 wins in a row. Woop woop! Stop betting, another new number shows. Now we're getting somewhere! Time to bet for a repeat and boom! There it is. Stopped betting, another repeat. I switch to betting the unhit numbers - lose the first spin, having bet on 16 numbers. I could bet again at the same flat rate, a win giving me 4 units profit. With a higher outlay this is what I would do but on pennies I doubled up. New number appears, bankroll swells! This was spin 32 and I call it quits here, with my 86 units secured.

I run the last few spins anyway just to see, and 3 are repeats and 2 are new numbers, finishing with the expected 24-13 spread. :)

« Last Edit: April 04, 2018, 08:34:44 PM by sam41 »
 
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Reyth

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2018, 01:01:05 AM »
WOW! Sounds great! :D

I need to be looking at this! :D

Here I made 147 units in 39 spins:

https://roulette-simulator.info/game/53c5c4482a3839858a443cb42e508557

I know I probably played this wrong.  Can you explain how you would play the following sequence, explaining your decision making process in detail with each spin?

Here is the sequence:



Maybe you could cover it up as you go?

Btw, did you know that you can look up custom marty progressions on loothog so you don't actually have to double up?

Can we pursue the spin sequences beyond 37 spins, like for hundreds and thousands?

I just also wanted to say that these are the principles that GUT uses. ;)
« Last Edit: April 05, 2018, 01:32:11 AM by Reyth »
 

sam41

Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2018, 04:58:12 PM »
Well with that sequence I'd have got to 18 spins and noticed I had 3 repeats which is about normal. So I have 15 numbers, and expect 9 more in the next 19 spins. Quite middling, so I probably carry on without betting for now. At 24 spins I now have 19 numbers so over the next 13 spins I expect just 5 more new ones to hit. So at this point I'd bet on repeats. I get a hit right away on the 36. I'd probably wait now and the next 2 spins give us one new number and one repeat (29 and 31) so I'd spin again, and I get another repeat (26). I now have 20 numbers and 8 repeats. So we now expect 4 more new numbers and 5 more repeats (obviously there might be some variation in this). I would bet on the unhit numbers now, because there are only 17 of them opposed to 20 that already hit. Also because 3 of the last 4 spins were repeats.

It isn't that I can be sure a new number is coming now, but it is extremely likely within 3-4 spins. As it turns out we get 23 and win first time. So now we have 21 numbers with 8 spins left. It could be worth betting on repeaters now, but you're betting 21 units so its a bigger progression. You might just be satisfied that you won 3 times for about 60 units and stop there. If you did bet, you would lose as 11 comes up. But you would win on the next spin with 19. I would definitely stop then, anymore is just being greedy. Time to switch wheels or have a break!

You would finish the session wishing you had bet on numbers that repeated and added a unit to those ones as they hit - because 19 and 25 came up 4 times apiece and 16 came up 3 times! However I haven't been doing this as sometimes you don't get a number that hits 3 times and this would be too costly.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2018, 05:01:10 PM by sam41 »
 
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