Author Topic: Profitable Horse Racing System  (Read 1480 times)

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Iain

Profitable Horse Racing System
« on: March 31, 2018, 01:00:30 AM »
There are loads of supposedly profitable horse racing systems on the web. Most are rubbish and are back fitted to convince you that they are profitable. However, this one works very well. You need to understand the concept of laying and have access to a betting exchange. You don't need to do any form study and this works just by analyzing the odds.

Horses that are odds on (below 2.00) win around 50% of their races. It is almost profitable laying every odds on horse, but will take a long time. What we are doing is laying the horses in play at much better prices than their starting price. Follow these steps, but be aware there will be losses, but you can profit up to 5 times the amount you are risking.

1. Look for races where the favourite is priced between 1.70 - 2.20

2. Before the races starts place 5 lays on the exchange at the following prices, ensuring to use the 'keep in play' option - 1.45, 1.25, 1.15, 1.10, 1.05

Say you are using £50 stakes and the horse wins you will lose £50. If the horse loses how much you win depends how low the odds went in play, but you can win up to 5 times your stake. The better the horses performance the more you win. It is possible none of your lays will be matched and you will win nothing, but you don't lose either. Try it with small stakes.

If you want proof this works, join Timeform (free) and you can see the low price (in running) for every horse going back many years.
 
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Reyth

Re: Profitable Horse Racing System
« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2018, 01:19:07 AM »
I played a Lay strategy once but it involved finding horses that are running in conditions that they normally lose in or are not accustomed to running in, as well as finding other horses in the race that are in their element.
 
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Iain

Re: Profitable Horse Racing System
« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2018, 01:32:25 AM »
Yes Reyth, I came across a similar system, but it is very time consuming. I prefer simple systems that can be applied quickly without the need of extensive form study.

One additional check you can use with the above system is that the second favourite is 6.00 or below and the third favourite is 10.0 or below. This just ensures the horse has reasonable competition.
 
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scepticus

Re: Profitable Horse Racing System
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2018, 03:13:03 AM »
Iain
If I remeber rightly Odds - On favourites was the ONLY bets to show an ACTUAL  profit over a NUMBER of years . So carfully does it .

I have often thought that I should LAY the horses I back  :D
 
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Sputnik

Re: Profitable Horse Racing System
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2018, 09:10:43 AM »


 Can some one explain again - i don't fully understand ...

 Many Thanks

 Cheers
 
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Mike

Re: Profitable Horse Racing System
« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2018, 09:27:35 AM »
Sputnik,

What don't you understand? It seems clear enough :

1. Look for races where the favourite is priced between 1.70 - 2.20

2. Before the races starts place 5 lays on the exchange at the following prices, ensuring to use the 'keep in play' option - 1.45, 1.25, 1.15, 1.10, 1.05

Odds-on bets often have value because the runners are underpriced. There's a nice article here which explains why this happens, and why it's often a good strategy to bet against the crowd.
 

scepticus

Re: Profitable Horse Racing System
« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2018, 09:42:28 AM »
Mike
Perhaps sputnik doesn't know what a Betting Exchange is .
 

Iain

Re: Profitable Horse Racing System
« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2018, 01:34:05 PM »

For anyone that doesn't understand, here is a detailed explanation.

EXCHANGES
Exchanges are peer to peer betting platforms, where you can back for your selection to win (Backing) or you can bet that your selection won't win (laying). The exchange makes money by charging a commission on winning bets and aren't undertaking any risk themselves. The people who are laying are taking on the bookmakers role and will pay out the winnings to the backers if the horse wins. To calculate the liability of a lay you subtract 1 from the odds and multiply by the stake. So, if you lay a horse @ 5.00 with a stake of £10 your liability is (5.00 - 1) * 10 = £40. As you can imagine laying at high prices carries a lot of risk and has ruined many gamblers. Laying at odds below 2.00 means you are risking less than you will gain. ie A lay of £10 @ 1.45 - (1.45 - 1) * 10 = £4.50. With a lay bet if the selection you layed doesn't win you win the backers stake, so you lay £10 if it doesn't win you gain £10. When you submit a bet, you choose which odds you will accept, so if the horse you wish to lay is currently available @ 2.00, you change the odds to 1.45 before submitting the bet. This means your bet is unmatched and will remain in the market for a backer to accept.

IN PLAY
Once the race starts 'In play' betting starts and all unmatched bets are cancelled unless they had the 'keep in play' option selected. As the race progresses the odds of each of the horses will fluctuate depending on how well they are running. In play bettors still overvalue the chances of the odds on favourite even if it isn't close to the leader in the early stages. Once the race is in the later stages and the favourite is leading or challenging for the lead many bettors will back it with absurdly large amounts thinking it is a sure thing. This just drives the price much lower than its real chance, which is why we score big time. Our last lay @ 1.05 we have risked £0.50 to win £10.

I recommend Betfair as the betting exchange to use. You may think there are others offering lower commission. The problem is apart from Betfair the in play liquidity is very poor and we need decent liquidity to get our bets matched. Anyway good luck with it. Just ask if there is still anything you don't understand.
 
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kav

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Re: Profitable Horse Racing System
« Reply #8 on: April 02, 2018, 08:09:29 PM »
Thanks Iain.
Great posts!
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Profitable Horse Racing System
« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2018, 08:56:43 PM »
Very interesting. .  Looks like arbitrage :)