Author Topic: Simple explanation of vb.  (Read 1638 times)

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MrPerfect.

Simple explanation of vb.
« on: March 28, 2018, 01:06:15 AM »
Vb ( visual ballistic ) is a way to predict ( calculate ) position of the rotor in the end of the spin.
   Key variables for such a prediction are :
1. Rotor ( disk with numbers) speed
2. Ball speed "reference number"
3. Time ball is expected to rotate after prediction moment ( reference number identification ).
4. Place where ball is expected to drop.
    For now l will speak about classic variation of the game called "one diamond game". Later we may look deeper into other variations of the game ( 2-3 diamond, level wheel).
   On "one diamond game" ball is expected to beat same diamond at the end of the spin at least 6 times out of 10.  So we assume that ball always beat same diamond in our calculations.
    We need to chose when to predict( take ball speed reference number). It has to be sufficient early into the spin ( before no more bet signal) , yet we have to be able to perceive it visually( see ball clearly and measure timings with minimum error ).  I will continue later on....
     
« Last Edit: March 18, 2019, 11:30:57 AM by MrPerfect. »
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2018, 11:56:52 AM »
 Moment of prediction is when ball speed is equal our benchmark. Benchmark can be any, but somehow better when it actually represent time of one particular revolution registered previously.  You can collect ball revolution timings with multilap stopwatch for example.
Speed = distance per time. Like automobile speed is kilometres per hour, ball speed is rotation per time interval.
   To measure ball speed we look our target diamond ( where ball is expected to beat at the end of spin) and at the moment ball pass there , we start our benchmark time ( target ball speed) interval. If at the end of our benchmark time ball overshoot our target diamond, mean that ball has more then target velocity, if undershoot it- less velocity. If we see ball complete one full rotation in our benchmark time, we correctly identify ball speed and need to look the number under the ball . It's our "ball speed reference number", starting point of our calculations and the moment in time from wich we account "total time" ball takes till drop on our target diamond.
   Obviously,  if you do not know any compensation method (vb2 or vb3..or smthng alike) , you are only to consider spins when you identify ball speed for sure. It will be slow game, but results will be better, much better.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2018, 01:41:12 PM by MrPerfect. »
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2018, 10:40:14 PM »
Should we continue a bit about ball speed?
   There are funny things you can do about ball speed measurement. Benchmark time is always same, but distance ball travel is a bit different, only 3 out of 10 spins on average you will register exact speed you are looking for, normally ball either overshoot your target a bit or undershoot it. It's normal, that's what ball almost always does... ball doesn't know what speed exactly in wich revolution it has to go, some differences  in ball timings are expected as well due to variance alone. Anyone who collected spin timings with any video editor software knows what l speak about. BTW,  good exercise,  make sure you do it .
    So what about funny thing you may ask. Visual player is able to estimate exact ball speed better then roulette computer player and it is funny. One full rotation per benchmark time equals target speed. If ball overshoot or undershoot our target diamond a bit, we can directly see by how much. Knowing exact distance ( we observed) , we can calculate exact ball speed. Overshoots and undershoot distances can be maped to exact ball speed values.(HOME WORK) Exact ball speed values can be analysed for a subject of leading to exact ball falling places (other diamonds for example) or exact distances ( from prediction to outcome).
    Yes such a mapping is a hard work and normally players do not do it, but it's possible to perform if instead one player there are 2 players working in the team. This way one can focus on the ball entirely. 
    Do not attempt to perform mapping of exact ball speeds to falling places if you are 1 man team. Use vb3 instead or any other flavor of compensational vb to obtain properly  the reference number.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2018, 09:41:56 AM »
We need to register time from ball speed identification till ball fall on our diamond.
This time is " total time " ball takes to spin after our prediction moment ( obtaining reference number for ball speed).
   Total time control  is what permit us to predict wich number gonna be under the diamond when ball is expected to beat there. This variable can change from time to time due differences in ball type throw, atmospheric pressure, temperature, humidity...ets. Obviously we no need to introduce so many new variables, we can just measure total time in every spin and pay attention  for changes.
  If you are in play and find yourself too busy to control total time, cash out and go home. Otherwise it's just gambling. Your major losses will come from ignoring this variable, it's your best friend and your worst enemy.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2018, 10:19:29 AM »
Next variable to take care off is rotor ( disk with numbers ) speed. We already know our ball target speed, how to take reference number for it ( look under the ball in precise moment), we already know total time .
    Now we gonna learn how to use total time to adjust for a rotor speed in current spin we play!!!
   Rotor speed can change from spin to spin and it will affect how far from our observation ( ball speed refference) ball will fall.
   To calculate expected rotor position in the end of spin we could upply total time to the rotor in the beginning of the spin ( if we have time enough ) in order to see for how much rotor move during this time. How it's done exactly is explained in many places incuding this forum. But jeneral idea is, we look where zero is at the moment and start our total time interval. At the end of time interval we look wich number is in the same place where we started time. Distance from zero to that number will show us precise offset ( difference) that rotor is expected to do during total time .
   Most of the time we got no time enough to upply  full total time, so we use fraction of it. Let's say 1/3...  observed distance ( in pokets) we need to multiply by 3 in this case ( because we used 1/3 of total time).
   Example... let's say we predict 15 seconds till ball drop from our ball speed identification moment till ball drop. In the start of spin or a bit earlier we look position of zero and start 5 seconds time interval... ball cv. Let's say we observe number 34 at the end of 5 seconds in the same place where zero was.  From zero till 34 cv is 9 pokets.  So, in 1/3 of total time rotor did 9 pokets difference, in 3/3 rotor is expected to do ( 9×3) = 27 pokets.
   27 pokets  (numbers cv) is our offset for rotor adjustment on the current spin. To calculate position of the rotor in the end of spin we identify our ball speed reference number and add 27 poket positions to it on current spin.
   Magick is done we just now calculated expected position of rotor ( number under the diamond) when the ball fall on our diamond.
    Congratulations,  you are becoming vb player.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2018, 10:22:05 AM by MrPerfect. »
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2018, 11:09:47 PM »
OK. .. we got our number under the diamond when the ball is expected to beat there. So far so good, but there is a problem. ... damn brainless roundhead bastard ( ball) do not stop there always, instead it jumps all over the place on the rotor numbers!!!
    This is precisely where statistical analysis starts to be valuable. Different ball types on different rotors behave differently... but in general , ball jumps  is rarely more then 27 pokets positions. More often there are distances dispersion  something like -4 ( jump back) till +20 by the ball direction.
   Attention... ball may often jump out of this zone sometimes , but exactly in these positions you should be looking zones with high probability of hit ( more hits then expected ) .
    There was a tread on this section of forum " what to expect ".... there are some funny pictures from " SergiyRouletteAnalyser" , l posted some ball jump scatter charts separated by rotor speeds. Do not take it as a dogma,  it just an example of what you may face out there while playing.
   Obviously if you predict to the number under the diamond when ball beat there, and ball starts to beat top of diamond and flight some extra distance forward before beating numbers, you will need to account for that as well...
   Make sure you register both " total time" and place where ball beaten numbers on impact ( in relation to your diamond). More qweak ball may flight a bit longer but arrive to the diamond a bit earlier ( it's more qweak )... so compensation in distance from your prediction to outcome may ( often do) happen.
   In short... pay attention.
 Do not take what lm posting as " final definitive guide" ... it's just " simple" explanation of vb that start to look like one of these thick books already.... however, highly consider to read few times every line till you understand and clearly picture information presented in your mind. Confirm every word l say with your own recearch/ observations and practice, or do not bother at all and enlist yourself with my vb course. And l will show it to you myself.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2018, 11:09:35 AM »
Wheels with one diamond domination are fairly rare... more likely situation to find is where 2 diamonds produce 8 hits out of 10 or 3 diamonds producing 9 hits out of 10( on average obviosly) . In case of 3 diamond game, " inactive diamond " shouldn't hit more then 1:10 ...  if not, we may start to think about this wheel is " level" ( absolutely ballanced).
   For multidiamond games we need to determine wich diamond hits to choose as our target.
    CHOICE OF DIAMOND TO TARGET IN MULTIDIAMOND GAME !!!!!!!!
 ................................................................................
     To determine wich diamond to target in these situations you got to follow your "best friend" . If have been reading as sudjested ( line by line till understand ), you probably can gess who is this "best friend" ..  it's our most important variable and our worst enemy in this game - " total time".
   There are many opinions on the net or in books, and most of them show no understanding. 
    I sudjest ( same as jafco) to target " last diamond " by the ball direction. Be careful there..  "Last diamond" is located at the end of " total time" that ball takes. Wich ever " total time " is longest - it's our target. Anyone who says otherwise,  beware of them, they are either lying or being misleaded. ... example - Forester from rouletteplace.
    There is the thing to be aware off... " last diamond" is not always " last diamond"..   this thing can change!!! You gotta pay attention. Changes in " total time " can make your " last diamond " to be the first one!!!! PAY ATTENTION !!!!!
    That's one of reasons why l ever bothered to make vb roulette computer in the first place. Control of total time while play is best way to follow. It's something that you are in debt for yourself as a player. You just got to do it to make money. There is no other way.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2018, 11:12:29 AM »
For these who bother to read... please click " thanks" button , so l know how many people are actually interested to read what l post.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2018, 12:03:58 PM »
What to do with diamonds that got dominance hopefully we fugured out by now..   but what to do with demn wheels where there is no such a thing???
   In diamond dominance situation we assume final place ( where ball beat diamond ) as fixed ... due to imperfection of wheel''s ball track, table tit. .  Or whatever.
   In " leveled wheel " situation we assume distance around the rotor that ball has to go is fixed. Obviously diamonds will have their affect ..  they deflect the ball, but do they really have affect on distance that ball has to go around the rotor numbers from the fixed ball speed????
  Big qwestion. .... in every individual case player is left to answer this qwestion to himself via statistical analysis. 
   Idea of " level wheel " prediction is that ball has to do "so much" distance in relation to numbers on rotor,  not the distance on the ball track. I will not populate much about this level of understanding of the game... normally it's reserved for players who dare to figure it out by themselves. ... HOWEVER, predicting twice during the spin can provide much better overview of current spin from both methods of prediction ( tilt & level).
   In this case we " traid" likehood of ball hitting our diamond with likehood of ball going predetermined distance.
  Yes!!!! As you could gess , it's entirely new level of understanding of the game, normally reserved to my students. I'm interested in what is doing on there in reality ( data) on the wheels that l can not watch directly...  this type of data does in fact provide nessesary information for such analysis. 
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2018, 12:12:35 PM »
This tread has more information then any other book or forum about the subject, you can call it " confession of AP". It's already served the purpose of giving overview on vb, but l may continue posting "first cut" , " high top" info here to minimise time required for preparation of my students. All depends on how many " thank you" tread will collect.
   All l left obscured is some of technical " how to"... all posted here is truth in open. You can use it as road map to develop your understanding about the subject, even if you not enrolled in my vb course or have no intention to work with me in the future.
   Have a nice reading.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #10 on: March 30, 2018, 10:40:34 PM »
 It's not much things left to mention.  This post will not be precisely organised to speak about one particular thing, instead it will have some ideas that may help you to become a successful player.
   1. Know your strongs and weaknesses.  People do bigger mistakes in measurements or observations then they realise.  Even direct observation of event to not offer warranty that it was perceived properly . Simple test: film one spin and put it on dvd. Observe in some fixed point ( diamond) wich number is under the point when ball pass there.( wright them down) 
   ... Then put this spin on videoeditor and look wich numbers were there in reality ( frame by frame). I gess you will be surprised with results.
That's OK, don't be alarmed, it's normal. ..l was thinking l could trust my eyes either. 
   Good news : you can map your personal visual observation error for different rotor/ ball speeds. It's one of best presents that you can do for yourself.
     .........
  Other thing l would like to call your attention to... it's an error that many players commit.
 Do not assume that you have any idea how ball or wheel or numbers gonna behave on unfamiliar wheel. New wheel - new study. In fact assume nothing even on familiar wheel in unfamiliar conditions. You got data... good, pretrack a bit on the day of play to see if situation is same. If your data is for high pressure days and it rains outside today , then do not play - collect the data.
........................
   If you are new player- keep your bets on paper. Look at least 5 sessions on the wheel you gonna play , predict, wright down results... if after 5 sessions you are in profit on the paper, chances are you can do it playing for money as well. Do not forget to track while you play. Data is your only friend in this strange roulette world.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2018, 11:04:57 AM »
Due to increased interest of the readers l will continue for a while on the subject...
   Nature of not random diamond hits distribution can be any , from real physical inclination on the table where wheel is seated till defects on the ball track. Folks on forums call such wheels as "titled " .
    This tilt effect can be found not only on the wheel's stator or table, but on movable parts of the wheel as well.
   Tilt of 1-2 millimetres can produce unequal diamond hit distribution.
       Tilt ( inclination ) on other parts of the wheel ( rotor head, central cone) is a source of similar effect for numbers hit as tilt on wheel itself for ball timings and diamond hits.
   Here need to understand. ....
 Tilt on the wheel ( table) quantize ball timings creating overlap on distances from prediction to outcome ( different diamond hits lead same results and different ball timings lead same diamond...)
     Tilt on other ( movable) parts of wheel ( rotor head, cone) quantize number hits from different first ball's impact places ( numbers), producing " collection of hits " zones ( bias sectors on numbers itself).
     I know... it's getting a bit advanced , especially for " simple explanation of vb", l just hope that my reader is able to follow what lm posting..  God help the reader!!!
    So ,often vb player finds himself in this multiple tilt situation where many factors matter. It may become confusing , especially when "tilts" start to work egainst each other.
   To limit affect of additional tilts ( bias) on the result , proper multivariate ( different hitting places/ timings/ball behaviour ) multivariable statistical analysis is required.  That's exactly a reason why we model our understanding of what is going on there... proper wheel model, prediction model, reading ball speed model is required due to reasons mentioned above.
    Do not allow yourself to get intimidated by huge amount of the choice available.  It's more about cutting choices to where things work then introducing new ones.
   We are advantage players after all, so we choose situations to play where advantage is obvious and consistent instead of disperse our attention on things that do not matter.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2018, 01:05:41 PM »
You may ask yourself,  so why this fellow ( me) giving so much info in open ? What is left there to teach or to offer?
   Well... vb3 ( my way of ball estimation) offering solution to when ball registered speed is not equal to the target one. It simply increase amount of spins to play( 200%). Besides,  l  do specialise on multivariable / multivariate data analysis.  Theoretically speaking , you can perform such analysis yourself,  however, some specific moments should be considered.  It's a hard work and do require proper software and upplied stats knowledge. ... l already got it studied and developed.
   I'm a player/ recearcher  myself and l wanna know what l may face out there, new unfamiliar situations do provide most valuable thing ever - experience. 
   I do depend on money that playing roulette provides and lm genuinely interested in make you to succeed. From your win l will charge 10% for assistance in play model development  , it's a small % considering amount of work involved,  but if l get 10 teams to work with, l will be more then well doing what l like the most - helping others to excel using their brains. 
   As you can see, it's a win- win situation.  You get more confidence in your play knowing that you got proper training,  proper understanding,  proper tools to work with, wich you understand how they function and how to operate them efficiently . I get proper data on the wheels that you may find out there, new studies rolling, new highs to achieve in my understanding of this game for our mutual benefit.
   It's a team work after all, l wanna become very good team member for you and considering what l have to offer and % l request as a share... very valuable one indeed, don't you think so, my dear reader?
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2018, 10:57:08 AM »
 There are things that completely change the game. Examples:
 - new rotor on old stator ( happens)
- another type of the ball ( size/ material)
- another type of dealer ball throw.
    A bit populated on the last one....
 Roulette ball is not different then snooker ball or golf ball . It can be thrown with additional rotation axis ( effect) , in fact it's one of first things that dealer learn to " randomise" the game results.
   Every different type of ball throw does affect following :
  - total time
- expected diamond hit
- expected ball jump in relation to defects. 
    If you look defects same as l do ( zones that affect/ collect ball jumps) , additional rotation axis ( effect) can behave as one of following :
- forward effect will have a tendency to overcome collection zones due to increased momentum
- back spin effect will be affected most often producing stops. Exaggerated back spin ball jump may have " crazy behavior" complitely defying your ball jump model.
    Make sure you add type of ball throw to your studies. Chart different types of throw apart,  often they represent very different results. Ball throw type becomes additional variable to register in both your data taking , charting, bias number hunting... ets.
   Different type of throw is different play situation, it even can become not playable with some exteam cases ( very strong back spin for example)....
  One more time..  pay attention.
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Simple explanation of vb.
« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2018, 01:10:36 PM »
Exercise for curios reader :
 - determine where exactly new people to the game in general may get problem to understand what is written above.
- submit your feedback in " qwestions & answers" , please.
   Thanks.