### Author Topic: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON  (Read 4504 times)

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#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #30 on: February 23, 2019, 11:25:41 PM »
Best thing to do is to is to play some sort of modified Kelly criteria.  Google it, it's reading worth your time. Play around with simulations in excel till you understand how and why it works.
It may be a bit complicated to adopt it to multiple choices options, but l hope you will figure it out.
Not using Kelly on sports betting is a crime egainst your wealth.

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#### Mako

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #31 on: February 23, 2019, 11:30:00 PM »
Best thing to do is to is to play some sort of modified Kelly criteria.  Google it, it's reading worth your time. Play around with simulations in excel till you understand how and why it works.
It may be a bit complicated to adopt it to multiple choices options, but l hope you will figure it out.
Not using Kelly on sports betting is a crime egainst your wealth.

Very true.  Identify your win rate based on your last X amount of bet attempts (the more the better), and use one of the Kelly calculators to strategize your base bet amount for each future play.

Some simple calculators for a variety of sports betting-related approaches can be found here:

https://sportsbettingcalcs.com/betting-tools#roi_calculator [nofollow]

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#### GIAJJENNO

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #32 on: February 23, 2019, 11:50:14 PM »
Best thing to do is to is to play some sort of modified Kelly criteria.  Google it, it's reading worth your time. Play around with simulations in excel till you understand how and why it works.
It may be a bit complicated to adopt it to multiple choices options, but l hope you will figure it out.
Not using Kelly on sports betting is a crime egainst your wealth.

Why do you think that playing with Kelly criterion is better than example flatbet? (I not tested yet the Kelly, just a simple question about your opinion). Or dividing our bankroll into 100 and playing with 10/5 or 10/4, example, where 1 equals 1 units. Example 100 euro our starting bankroll, we divied it to 100, our standard 1 bet will be 1 euro. If I post one tip with 10/5, you will bet with 5 euro. I use this method.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2019, 11:52:22 PM by GIAJJENNO »

#### leowls

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #33 on: February 24, 2019, 04:16:19 AM »
Prediction for manu vs liverpool guys? Im going for a liverpool win.

#### UnlikelySam

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #34 on: February 24, 2019, 06:29:55 AM »
Prediction for manu vs liverpool guys? Im going for a liverpool win.

Liverpool and BTTS...

Let's hope the infamous DRAW doesn't make a grand entrance 😒 😀

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#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #35 on: February 24, 2019, 07:40:51 AM »
Kelly is just optimal way of betting. It makes more money then any other way while ensure low risk to lose entire bank. Wise bettors along with investment funds, banks, traders use it to jump up their bankroll levels.
In simple words... bet significantly less then Kelly and you will win significantly less, bet more and risks start to skyrocket.

#### GIAJJENNO

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #36 on: February 24, 2019, 11:25:10 AM »
I saw that the bet percentage of my bankroll decides based on my opinion about winning percentage of the match.

#### UnlikelySam

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #37 on: February 24, 2019, 04:03:21 PM »
Prediction for manu vs liverpool guys? Im going for a liverpool win.

Liverpool and BTTS...

Let's hope the infamous DRAW doesn't make a grand entrance 😒 😀

Well what do we have here... Another prime time match that ended in 0-0... Zzzzz... Leowls what did you back? I mean to say you still went with a Liverpool win?
« Last Edit: February 24, 2019, 04:05:11 PM by UnlikelySam »

#### GIAJJENNO

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #38 on: February 24, 2019, 04:24:33 PM »
I went with Liverpool wins but with corners. I know that Liverpool will attack more, and would add possible more clrners for them.
Results 3-7

#### GIAJJENNO

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #39 on: February 24, 2019, 04:38:23 PM »
Quite good form now at the ending month.

#### UnlikelySam

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #40 on: February 24, 2019, 05:04:03 PM »
So Gia you are focusing on Corners only? That is a good value ; it actually saved my a\$\$ 😂 during the world cup Croatia vs England... Nice Gia good work mate👏

#### GIAJJENNO

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #41 on: February 24, 2019, 05:20:05 PM »
No, I am focusing on a best option, and a best buy in a match. As I said, I have constant win 55% at odds 2.00. Its 5% edge for me. In year 2018 I had only 2 losing months from 12. Corners are coin-flip cometimes, I dont like corners, but this tip was almost sure, if you watched previous manu and pool corner stats.

Sometimes I use live-betting, success too, in 2018 I had 43% winrate at odds 2,45.

#### leowls

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #42 on: February 24, 2019, 05:42:45 PM »
Prediction for manu vs liverpool guys? Im going for a liverpool win.

Liverpool and BTTS...

Let's hope the infamous DRAW doesn't make a grand entrance 😒 😀

Well what do we have here... Another prime time match that ended in 0-0... Zzzzz... Leowls what did you back? I mean to say you still went with a Liverpool win?

I didnt place bet for this game as im not confident of a liverppol victory. You know everytime they come back from a warm overseas training  they always go on and draw their next 2 games lol. I was cheering for them but too bad they didn't capitalise on the disruption to the manu squad with 3 of their regular players going off in the first half. 1 point off the table is very risky.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2019, 05:44:41 PM by leowls »

#### UnlikelySam

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #43 on: February 24, 2019, 06:01:41 PM »
Leowls the draws are too monotonous especially in the larger scale matches between the two big teams. Yes it is rather a pity that they couldn't capitalize on United members going off. Kinda reminds me of the draw between  the last match Liverpool played against Man City another 0 - 0... Gia Corners WDL Over Under 2.5 all are flip coin sadly... We did discuss it last time about the sheer unpredictability of football. Has anyone tried "Away Win to nill" or "Home win to nill" market? I know odds are very low same as Under 5.5 ; it needs to be in an accumulator. The option of No has the low odds lol. So if you select the underdog in the match especially if they are the away team. Have yet to try that out that out though.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2019, 06:06:36 PM by UnlikelySam »

#### GIAJJENNO

##### Re: GIAJJENNO SPORT BETTING DISCUSSON
« Reply #44 on: February 24, 2019, 07:07:39 PM »