### Author Topic: If each spin is truly independent why is it  (Read 3685 times)

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#### scepticus

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #30 on: November 29, 2018, 05:48:53 PM »
No Mike -  Maths
As you don't understand the concept of Any Three From Four I am not surprised that  you ask  such a question.
You are stuck in a rut believing that "You can't beat the HE" Repeat-Repeat  ad nauseum  . Your continued trolling and ridiculing of Method players is chidish.
Why don't you open a thread  extolling the virtues of your AP method and let me tear it apart ? Like Method players here  you are only  guessing as do all  AP .

#### gizmotron

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #31 on: November 29, 2018, 05:54:42 PM »
Independence doesn't prove that all systems fail, it proves that all TRIGGERS based on past numbers will fail.

And I'm not a "system opponent". I'm just against the promotion of systems based on fallacies.

The truth that you need to wrap your head around is that on each spin you have a greater chance of losing then of winning. That is the house's advantage and we all accept that. I accept it and I hope that you acknowledge it too. That house advantage does not cause or prevent 20 Reds in a row from happening though. I could play 100 spins where I lose 70 times. That is way beyond the mathematical expectation for large numbers. I could still have the same dozen sleep for 30 spins in a row during that 100 spin sequence. And all the math in the world could not predict that it would happen. That would be a math fallacy and should correctly be labeled as such. Nevertheless it could happen and a math guy would not see it happening where as I would. By not seeing it happen the math guy would be correct for those 100 spins. They would see what they want to see and be satisfied. I would see the opportunity streak and be happy with it too. I would see what I wanted to see and I would exploit it.  I would use a trigger to make the first bet. I would use a trigger to place the last bet of the sequence. I would kill off the casino in 30 spins and you would make nothing because opportunities don't exist. I'm really glad for you and your achievements. Only one question occurs to me though. Why do you gamble?

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#### Third

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #32 on: November 29, 2018, 06:33:10 PM »
Oh that's right, he doesn't?

#### Mike

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #33 on: November 29, 2018, 07:09:21 PM »
I could still have the same dozen sleep for 30 spins in a row during that 100 spin sequence. And all the math in the world could not predict that it would happen. That would be a math fallacy and should correctly be labeled as such.
Wrong. The math DOES predict that it will happen, it just can't predict WHEN.

Quote
I would see the opportunity streak and be happy with it too. I would see what I wanted to see and I would exploit it.  I would use a trigger to make the first bet. I would use a trigger to place the last bet of the sequence.
That would only work if the triggers worked, but they don't for reasons I've already explained multiple times. So what actually happens is that the number of wins you get from successful triggers minus the number of losses you get from failed triggers equals the house edge. This is what your simulations will show you.

#### Third

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #34 on: November 29, 2018, 07:13:26 PM »
Math can predict WHEN by detailing when it is expected and how much the probability increases that it will occur.  Your blindspot for cumulative probability is so great, you can't even use it for attacking us!

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #35 on: November 29, 2018, 07:58:34 PM »
Guys,  relax. Triggers are fine. As long as they trigger of cause
Nothing triggers outside bets.  They are just randomly scattered groups of numbers. Get over it already...
No point fight each other,  fight roulette instead. 2-3 years and it's over for everyone. Count down started...

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#### scepticus

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #36 on: November 29, 2018, 07:59:37 PM »
Oh that's right, he doesn't?

Spot on Thiird  !

#### Mike

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #37 on: November 29, 2018, 08:09:37 PM »
Math can predict WHEN by detailing when it is expected and how much the probability increases that it will occur.

Care to give us an example?

#### Mike

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #38 on: November 29, 2018, 08:10:36 PM »
Triggers are fine. As long as they trigger of cause
Right, but system players think past numbers are causes, LOL!

#### mr j

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #39 on: November 29, 2018, 08:43:20 PM »
"Right, but system players think past numbers are causes" >> This is where it can be tricky.

(00 wheel) >> lets say the past eight results were...25 12 12 00 8 27 19 12. I feel its smart (not sure what word to use) to continue betting in that section for "X" spins EVEN THOUGH, those are PAST results. If the idiot dealer is launching at the same point, same wheel speed etc., why should I not take advantage of it, based on PAST results?

Ken

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#### Mike

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #40 on: November 29, 2018, 08:58:05 PM »
Ken,
I've no argument with that because you're taking into account OTHER factors (physical ones). It's not unreasonable to bet that way if there's a correlation between physical variables and past numbers.

But it's fallacious to look ONLY at past numbers and then conclude from long-term statistics (and nothing else) that you currently have an edge because the past numbers happen to line up with the stats in some way. System players just don't seem to see the difference between what they're doing and what you're doing.

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#### palestis

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #41 on: November 29, 2018, 09:04:48 PM »

And I'm not a "system opponent". I'm just against the promotion of systems based on fallacies.
The very fact that numbers tend to seek their rightful place in independent trials is NOT A FALLACY.
It is a fallacy to believe that they don't.
It doesn't have to be exact equilibrium, but getting close enough to it, is just fine. That's what the B/R if for. The system's goal is to have one profitable hit. Not to equalize everything.
Playing from the beginning puts you in the short run, where variance and blacks swans lurk.
It's not the same and I proved it to you that playing from the beginning can be a disaster.
Not only you don't prove that AP is the way to go, you don't even prove that some systems we discuss here will fail. ( not with probability theory,  but with a real example for a change).

#### palestis

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #42 on: November 29, 2018, 09:13:56 PM »
"Right, but system players think past numbers are causes" >> This is where it can be tricky.

(00 wheel) >> lets say the past eight results were...25 12 12 00 8 27 19 12. I feel its smart (not sure what word to use) to continue betting in that section for "X" spins EVEN THOUGH, those are PAST results. If the idiot dealer is launching at the same point, same wheel speed etc., why should I not take advantage of it, based on PAST results?

Ken
Well thanks. I have been doing that in some European casinos when I lived there.  The next spin starts exactly from the number that spun last. Clockwise or counterclockwise.
By the time the dealer makes the payments, you have plenty of time to figure out the zone, where the ball will land (if the speeds are the same). Otherwise you skip the spin and wait for speed consistency.
In the US the dealer pushes the wheel and releases the ball whenever he feels like.
Therefore you cannot plan the landing zone in advance, if they speeds remain the same.
You can only observe the last second the number where the ball started from, and it might not be enough time to adjust or figure out the relative zone position  on time.

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#### gizmotron

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #43 on: November 29, 2018, 09:49:10 PM »
I could still have the same dozen sleep for 30 spins in a row during that 100 spin sequence. And all the math in the world could not predict that it would happen. That would be a math fallacy and should correctly be labeled as such.
Wrong. The math DOES predict that it will happen, it just can't predict WHEN.

Quote
I would see the opportunity streak and be happy with it too. I would see what I wanted to see and I would exploit it.  I would use a trigger to make the first bet. I would use a trigger to place the last bet of the sequence.
That would only work if the triggers worked, but they don't for reasons I've already explained multiple times. So what actually happens is that the number of wins you get from successful triggers minus the number of losses you get from failed triggers equals the house edge. This is what your simulations will show you.

Well, that's progress. Now the math predicts that opportunities will happen.

Your equilibrium comment about triggers is full on baloney. It is baloney because I use virtual bets that are triggers without consequences. As a skilled player I know what a win streak looks like verses a losing streak. I know what a slow grind up or down looks like. You don't know these things. So you use a magical belief system to allow math to be a panacea to live by. And I don't use pure flat betting to do this either. I attack the casino when things continue to be working. It makes up for the expected losses that tend to be at worst at the house advantage rate. But what is funny to me is that you can't see this. And best of all you don't want too. And so your chances are dim to slim at best. Keep up the baloney festival.

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#### palestis

##### Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #44 on: November 29, 2018, 09:57:35 PM »
I posted this picture in the past, I will post it again.
What it says is, that if you plan in advance to make a series of bets, the probability of series is the DETERMINING factor. (Very unlikely to lose).
Otherwise the probability of series theorem would not exist.
If you only plan to make one bet, then the static probability for that moment ONLY is the determining factor. (50% chances to lose).
The question is, what is your intention?
« Last Edit: November 29, 2018, 10:08:45 PM by palestis »

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