Author Topic: If each spin is truly independent why is it  (Read 3033 times)

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Mike

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2018, 11:39:28 AM »
Anyway, back to the OP. The reason why such a question is even asked is because the word "independent" is taken to mean :

independent (vs. dependent) -- (free from external control and constraint; autonomous.

So on this definition there seems to be a conflict between independence so defined and the observation that we DON'T see 20 numbers in a row or 300 reds, etc. Since we don't see such things (it is argued), then outcomes cannot be "independent" after all, because if there were no "constraints", then such events would commonplace.

The trouble is that this definition of independence is not the same as the definition of the technical term "statistical independence". So we have endless meaningless arguments which are never resolved because they are merely verbal disputes.

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kav

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2018, 12:09:21 PM »
Good point.

Independent from previous spins vs independent of any factors (dealer etc.)

shapecode99

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #17 on: March 16, 2018, 10:27:45 AM »
i think this should be in here..

f you guys are tracking/playing/testing streets i.e. DS, DOZ, quads, splits, Cols etc... then that's no difference in tracking an RNG.

having said that.. there is no "DUE" or "probability", "Std Devt'n" etc..  that will come next on the table layout.  Its ALL in the wheel.

so even if you test your strategy as mentioned above in a thousand times... still no difference in tracking a random numbers or say RNG even though its from a live dealer.

Mike

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #18 on: March 16, 2018, 10:48:30 AM »
there is no "DUE" or "probability", "Std Devt'n" etc..  that will come next on the table layout.  Its ALL in the wheel.

Shapecode,

This makes no sense. The layout is just as much subject to probabilities as the wheel. In fact, the wheel is just another layout, and vice-versa, as far as the random game is concerned. If you're talking about physics and AP then of course the layout should be ignored, but as regards systems, it makes no difference; a number is a number whether viewed from its position on the wheel or layout.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2018, 10:50:04 AM by Mike »

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shapecode99

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #19 on: March 16, 2018, 11:04:35 AM »
i would not argue with that Mike.

the wheel layout is the true layout to track.
the table layout is there to track all the outside and even chances bets.

if you are tracking the table layout... that's fine. but you are not connected to wheel anymore. Just pure randomenes

dobbelsteen

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #20 on: March 16, 2018, 02:14:02 PM »
The roulette random number row has no begin and no end. This means that every row is a very smal part of the endless row.20 Numbers in a row  has a  chance of 1/37^20 .On the long it can happens. Short run rows are part of the long run but have different features.

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GIAJJENNO

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #21 on: March 16, 2018, 04:58:59 PM »
I think roulette has release point because is startod to play in 1796 I am sure roulette will have stopball too. Between them we must win.

double zero

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #22 on: March 19, 2018, 02:29:39 AM »
fyodor,

where is that  picture from? wow! the most I've ever seen!

SugTips

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #23 on: March 19, 2018, 05:07:03 PM »
fyodor,

where is that  picture from? wow! the most I've ever seen!

I can see such thing every week in my bm casino as their machine is spoiled and display repeated numbers multiple times. Like last month someone just entered the casino and saw 0 has repeated 6 times on screen, he betted very big on zero. And then later realized his mistake. Cost him much

Sputnik

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #24 on: March 19, 2018, 09:24:32 PM »

Nice one SugTips ...

cheers
« Last Edit: March 19, 2018, 09:27:07 PM by Sputnik »

SugTips

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #25 on: November 28, 2018, 01:36:18 PM »
The roulette random number row has no begin and no end. This means that every row is a very smal part of the endless row.20 Numbers in a row  has a  chance of 1/37^20 .On the long it can happens. Short run rows are part of the long run but have different features.
20 Numbers in a row  has a  chance of 1/37^20 .On the long it can happens.
No, it will never happen.

palestis

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #26 on: November 28, 2018, 10:45:07 PM »
Independence or not, somehow all independent trials find a way to be close enough to equilibrium after enough trials. In fact, the more independent the trials are, the more likely to seek their rightful place as far as their probability is concerned.
That is y it never fails to observe this:
At the bottom of the daily count in a casino like Wiesbaden, the number of B/R, O/E, H/L, dozens, columns, although not in perfect equilibrium, they are close enough to confirm and reconfirm their rightful place within their probability. And that's about 300-500 spins.
You will never are going to see 200 B and 100 R, Or doz.1   150,    doz.2 100 and doz.3  50.
The question is y?
If this is an undisputable fact, ( which it is), then y the independent nature of trials, doesn't overpower their tendency to seek out equilibrium? (except in very short runs).
And y a system can't be built, around the premise that independent trials seek out their rightful place within their assigned probability?
Instead,  system opponents employ the "independence excuse" to prove that all system will fail.
When it is so obvious that independence is good for systems.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2018, 10:54:19 PM by palestis »

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scepticus

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #27 on: November 29, 2018, 02:58:28 AM »
I think it is important   that whatever system we  employ -method  or AP -we need to  be aware  that these are hypotheses and NOT fact so the best we can do is make an EDUCATED GUESS.

Mike

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #28 on: November 29, 2018, 04:56:14 PM »
Independence or not, somehow all independent trials find a way to be close enough to equilibrium after enough trials.
This has nothing to do with independence. See my reply #15.

What you're talking about is the law of large numbers, but that doesn't help systems either because it refers to proportions and not absolute numbers. There is no tendency for the numbers to equalise, the tendency is for the proportion to approach the expected value, which is what you're talking about. But how does knowing this help you to win?

Quote
system opponents employ the "independence excuse" to prove that all system will fail.
Independence doesn't prove that all systems fail, it proves that all TRIGGERS based on past numbers will fail.

And I'm not a "system opponent". I'm just against the promotion of systems based on fallacies.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2018, 04:58:03 PM by Mike »

Mike

Re: If each spin is truly independent why is it
« Reply #29 on: November 29, 2018, 05:06:18 PM »
so the best we can do is make an EDUCATED GUESS.
Based on what? Past numbers?