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Author Topic: Double Dozens  (Read 4952 times)

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Argus

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #15 on: February 18, 2018, 11:31:49 PM »
Again,

How is it going to change the odds?

If it's just landed in one dozen two times in a row, why would it be less likely to land there on the very next spin?

Statistics say it “probably” won’t.  Look it up.
     That is part of the beauty of betting the dozens three times. When statistics are on your side of a dozen you didn’t bet on not showing up three times then your odds of winning just became 50% on the third bet

     Thanks for being my straight man. You are an integral part of this family
 

mr j

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #16 on: February 18, 2018, 11:42:16 PM »
"When statistics are on your side of a dozen you didn’t bet on not showing up three times then your odds of winning just became 50% on the third bet" >> What?
 

palestis

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #17 on: February 18, 2018, 11:43:36 PM »
@ Argus.
You need to clarify the system exactly as you would play it. So that everybody will understand it.
Just yesterday you were betting 2 dozens. Today it changed  to one dozen
If you bet the last dozen showing and 24 came (as in the picture) it took 10 spins for the 2nd dozen to show up again.
Now,  if you bet the last dozen 3 times only and then switch to another dozen that's a different story.
In this case you need a long term testing to see how many times back to back the dozen you play  will make zig zags. Once you know the worst case scenario, you can adjust the system .
 
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Real

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Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #18 on: February 18, 2018, 11:59:30 PM »
Quote
Statistics say it “probably” won’t.  Look it up.
     That is part of the beauty of betting the dozens three times. When statistics are on your side of a dozen you didn’t bet on not showing up three times then your odds of winning just became 50% on the third bet

 

No, you're misinterpreting the statistics/probability. The statistics say that the odds of a dozen hitting a third time, after it's just hit twice is 12/38...which is the exact same as the probability of any other specific dozen hitting.

Even is a specific dozen has just hit 10 times in a row, the probability of it hitting on the next spin is still only 12/38.
 

Reyth

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #19 on: February 19, 2018, 12:05:37 AM »
And you're failing to mention cumulative probability.
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2018, 12:33:57 AM »
Real

Based on these probability, a dozen can show up 100, 1000 times in a row. In that case why we discuss here, that you say, always, every spin is 12/38 to hit the same dozen. We can close every roulette forum, and go to bed thinking on universe, and big life questions. It is not make sense.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 07:59:12 PM by kav »
 

Real

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Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2018, 01:41:00 AM »
MREKO,

I'm sorry, but the facts are what they are.  All of the experts, mathematicians and history agree.

A dozen could theoretically show up 1,000,000 times in a row, but there are more ways for it to not show up that many times in a row.  If there's an open pocket on the wheel, then the ball can land there!

If you're in doubt, just count the number of pockets that the ball can land in at each spin.

Quote
And you're failing to mention cumulative probability.

Reyth,

The cumulative probability doesn't change based on what's hit on past spins either.  Again, just count the pockets.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 01:45:36 AM by Real »
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2018, 02:18:57 AM »
Real,

I understand mathematics probabilities, and in the sciensce is possible to have 1 000 000 hit in a row on one dozen, but in reality is impossible, maximum 10-15. That is the importance.
 

Real

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Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2018, 03:51:01 AM »
maximum 10-15. That is the importance.

That maximum is related to the number of spins that you will witness over time.  Unfortunately there is no maximum that you can rely in order to build a successful progression.
 

Reyth

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #24 on: February 19, 2018, 04:54:42 AM »
LOL on denying basic statistics.
 

Mike

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #25 on: February 19, 2018, 08:19:56 AM »
Statistics say it “probably” won’t.  Look it up.
     That is part of the beauty of betting the dozens three times. When statistics are on your side of a dozen you didn’t bet on not showing up three times then your odds of winning just became 50% on the third bet

Argus,

Look at the list of possible outcomes for 3 dozens in a row, I've marked the permutations which start with 2 of a particular dozen (L,M, or H).

L,L,L *
L,L,M *
L,L,H *
L,M,L
L,M,M
L,M,H
L,H,L
L,H,M
L,H,H
M,L,L
M,L,M
M,L,H
M,M,L *
M,M,M *
M,M,H *
M,H,L
M,H,M
M,H,H
H,L,L
H,L,M
H,L,H
H,M,L
H,M,M
H,M,H
H,H,L *
H,H,M *
H,H,H *

It's true that after 2 dozens of the same kind, you are twice as likely to see a different dozen on the 3rd spin as the same dozen. But look at the other lines and tell me if there is anything special about the patterns which begin with LL, MM, or HH. Suppose your "trigger" was any of these other patterns, such as MH or LM. Would using any of these triggers make a difference to the probability of winning on the third spin?

More to the point, suppose you see LL. You have 3 options now if betting on 2 dozens : L & M, M & H, or L & H. What is the probability of winning, picking ANY of these bets?

Now repeat for 3 dozens beginning with either MM or HH.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2018, 08:32:29 AM by Mike »
 
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Jesper

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #26 on: February 19, 2018, 09:26:04 AM »
There are no maximum of a dozen to repeat.  The probability for many is of course low. The point is the spins which is allready spun is 100% fallen, and the next dozen fallen has 12/38 on a  D-zero, hence no advantages for the player still -5.25.   

That said you can win using the method, if and only if, the dozen fallen has by chance less streaks.
 

Argus

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #27 on: February 19, 2018, 06:49:54 PM »
If the third dozen to drop is the same loser as the first two, then just wait for the next sequence to bet again
If the third dozen to drop is not the same as the first, then you are looking at 50% chance of a winner (barring zero)
If you get a loser wait for the next sequence to bet again. That’s what you do when playing roulette. I never made the claim that betting in this fashion would never lose, only that it would win enough times to make a profit eventually. There is usually a winner at least one out of three sequences, most times more often. Granted it’s hard to get rich betting on dozens.
     It’s not like I’m selling a method, it’s just there for your perusal. My original post was just looking for a way to bet two dozens at the same time. I finally settled on just betting one, and it seems doable to me. Go ahead and test it 10,000 times. If you think there are going to be 10,000 repeats of the same dozen then by all means bet that dozen.
 

palestis

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #28 on: February 19, 2018, 07:05:05 PM »
Quote
Once you know the worst case scenario, you can adjust the system .

This is the curve fitter fallacy.
It is curve fitting if you test only a few hundred spins. And that's y many systems fail. Lack of long term testing. They usually look good in short term tests, And that encourages the player to start using them right away.
But if in hundreds of thousands of spin tests, you only observe 2-3 worst case scenarios, what is the chance that those worst case scenarios will start attacking as soon as you start betting?
Or what is the chance that those long term test statistics are going to be invalidated, just as you start the session?
 
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Mike

Re: Double Dozens
« Reply #29 on: February 19, 2018, 07:11:30 PM »
If the third dozen to drop is not the same as the first, then you are looking at 50% chance of a winner (barring zero)

Can you explain how you came to 50%? If you are betting on 1 dozen the probability is 1/3 or if 2 dozens it's 2/3. I just can't see the reasoning which gives you 1/2.