New Forum Address: ROULETTELIFE.COM
  Update your Bookmarks

Author Topic: Spin history as a tool.  (Read 5698 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

MrPerfect.

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #30 on: January 15, 2018, 10:03:51 PM »
I say lazy because he is lazy. He got wheel at home. By his own words it's " collecting dust" long time already.
   Knowing this and reading what he posted...
 Vb is not that secret ... it's on the wheel itself. I bet his wheel even has lines on cone and stator to simplify distance calculations!!! Yet he is looking in the books... for wisdom?
 

palestis

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #31 on: January 16, 2018, 12:47:14 AM »
Casino Wiesbaden publishes the day's results for every table.
At the bottom they give the statistics for every individual number. ( how many times each appeared in the entire session at this specific table).
They also give the total appearances of even chances, dozens and columns. The total number of the day's spins is listed as COUPS.  If you take the COUPS (in this example 203 spins) and divide by 37,
you get the average times each of the 37 numbers is entitled to appear.
But of course the results are far from that average.
However, if you take  the results of several days of the same table and add up the coups and divide by 37, you will notice the tendency of every number to reach statistical balance.
In about 2000 spins you will probably see every number to have appeared very close to equilibrium.
The same goes for even chances , dozens and columns. (though you will notice that their statistics are not too far from the equilibrium at the end of the day, because they contain more numbers).
                                  How can future results have nothing to do with past results when combined together they reach equilibrium? And I am not talking after a million spins, or hundreds of thousands of spins, or even tens of thousands of spins. Just a few thousand spins takes care of even distribution.
I know I am not a match compared to the experts. But what the experts simply say is that when you approach a table and consider making a bet, what has happened in the previous spins has nothing to do with the individual bet I am planning to play. I haven't heard or read anything else other than that.
The experts don't elaborate. They make this statement with instant results in mind taking each spin as a separate event. 
And that's it.
 It is the non experts that translated the experts'  statement to include every situation you can think of. And that's where they are wrong.
It is undeniable that equilibrium comes in just a few thousand spins for individual numbers and several hundred spins for groups of numbers like even chances etc.
If things tend to equalize after a certain  number of spins( sometimes before), it can only lead to the conclusion that all spins past and future are interconnected.
Otherwise equilibrium could not be achieved. Meaning numbers and groups that were far behind in the recent past, they will move  forward at a  much faster pace than before. And numbers and groups that were prevalent in the past,  will have to slow down. THAT'S THE ONLY WAY BALANCE IS ACHIEVED.
Since a player does not play 2000 spins per session, he cannot take advantage of this balancing fact.
    However, in the short run  a noticeable imbalance or a trend should guarantee at least one hit within a certain number of spins and well within its probability of occurrence.
In the short run you don't try to balance a long term imbalance. That's impossible.
What is possible is to take a short term imbalance and strike just once towards a balance.
And the mission has been accomplished. For now. When similar circumstances arise, you strike again.
The short run where a typical player plays, is a small scale of a much larger long run.
You don't expect to strike too many hits as you would, if you had the time  to play in the long run,
therefore you should be content with just one successful strike per situation.
 It is the collection of many successful single strikes, triggered under strictly defined circumstances that makes for a winning roulette career.

                                     

« Last Edit: January 16, 2018, 12:50:08 AM by palestis »
 
The following users thanked this post: MickyP

juice

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #32 on: January 16, 2018, 01:10:45 AM »
To Palestis,
Your's is the single most important, lucid, and all around spectacular post to have ever graced this forum.
You deserve all the respect that this,( politely put), diverse group of members can give.
Any intelligent free thinker, whether they agree with you or not, must,at the very least, take pause in your opinion, an opinion that I highly regard as fact... Thank you.   

 All the best, and with much respect, juice                                                                   

 
The following users thanked this post: palestis, MickyP

MrPerfect.

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #33 on: January 16, 2018, 01:49:48 AM »
Past numbers are just past numbers. That's all about them. They mean nothing on their own.
   They happen for a reson..  in fact many reasons combined together, aproximate list of reasons l provided on earlier post.
   Change in these reasons change numbers.
 So ... someone look numbers and make his decisions... next step .. change comes and his decisions become garbage.
   Player looks reasons, numbers for a player is just to confirm these reasons. These who look something else simply do not know where to look, how to look and what they should be looking for.
   Hope it will clear out any doubts.
 

scepticus

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #34 on: January 16, 2018, 02:51:27 AM »
Micky P
I have been playing roulette for many years and have discussed and dismissed many ideas. Over those years I have discovered a way of playing that is profitable. So. No. I have no doubts whatsoever . I am absolutely confident when I bet real money on the table .Even when I lose I don't get upset .
I use maths which others dismiss while some  others have the patronising  arrogance to say my maths sucks !
and
Mr. Perfect
Past numbers are NOT just past numbers as you would have seen if you had accepted my challenge. They can help us make an educated guess about future winning numbers  so don't be so patronising .
 

MickyP

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #35 on: January 16, 2018, 04:12:37 AM »
The point I was trying to make can be best illustrated with long distance communication.

Morse code was used when the American West was still wild and is still used today. Telegraphs were considered a fast way of communication but today we have SMS cellphone messaging,  Skype, email and so on. I know this doesn't relate much to roulette because little has changed to the structure of the actual game. The point I'm getting at is that by keeping  an open mind to possibilities within the game may lead to a more profitable method of play. We have come a long way since we discovered the second use for fire.

 

Reyth

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #36 on: January 16, 2018, 06:37:53 AM »
There are patterns in spin histories that can be recognized, studied & exploited.  Probability is not a myth and it applies to every spin, AS WELL AS spin histories AND future spins.

Like Micky has just pointed out, the computer now allows us to widen our scope for viewing spin histories.  Where in B&M environments we might only view a few hundred spins, using a computer we can now view THOUSANDS of spins in a single session.

Every spin session will reflect the results of probability which can be measured and quantified.  At any point in that history, the result was at that time a current spin without a future spin.  Recognizing patterns in spin histories is a key to success in roulette and a reliable guide to bet selection.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2018, 06:45:53 AM by Reyth »
 
The following users thanked this post: MickyP

Mike

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #37 on: January 16, 2018, 09:10:40 AM »
Sputnik is of course correct to point out that roulette outcomes are not as predictable as the outcomes in the simple game I described in my analogy, due to chaotic elements, but it was just an analogy to highlight what's missing from the "spin history" model - namely, cause and effect. The random elements in roulette don't completely nullify the basic premise and truth that you can only make successful predictions when you know the causes. Where the ball ends up is NOT completely independent of physical factors.

The crucial difference between the two approaches (AP and looking at spin history IN ISOLATION from initial conditions) is that in the case of looking at past spins alone, there is no correlation (and therefore no causal factor) between spins, so as a predictive tool looking at past spins is useless.

Looking at past spins can indeed help to predict future outcomes, but only insofar as they can help to identify the probability model which generates those future outcomes. This is relevant because it brings us to the other branch of AP, which is bias. I can assume a probability model of equal outcomes,  record many spins and discover that a sector of the wheel is hitting more often that it should, and as a result I have learned something from past spins which will help me to predict future spins. I can now update my probability model to reflect the data. But outcomes are still independent, and it would still be gambler's fallacy to begin betting on the unbiased sectors if they haven't hit for a long time.

Palestis says:

Quote
How can future results have nothing to do with past results when combined together they reach equilibrium? And I am not talking after a million spins, or hundreds of thousands of spins, or even tens of thousands of spins. Just a few thousand spins takes care of even distribution.
I know I am not a match compared to the experts. But what the experts simply say is that when you approach a table and consider making a bet, what has happened in the previous spins has nothing to do with the individual bet I am planning to play. I haven't heard or read anything else other than that.
The experts don't elaborate. They make this statement with instant results in mind taking each spin as a separate event. 

You keep making the same mistake. The fact that the spins reach "equilibrium" has no bearing on whether they are independent or not. The "experts" don't say that previous spins have nothing to do with future spins, they say that past spins have no INFLUENCE on future spins. This seems to be a subtle point, because many fail to grasp it, even though almost everyone will agree that because there is nothing stopping the ball from landing in ANY pocket, it follows that spins are independent. There is no conflict between this fact and the possibility that distribution of outcomes can be different between wheels or on the same wheel at different times.

Quote
To Palestis,
Your's is the single most important, lucid, and all around spectacular post to have ever graced this forum.

Oh boy.  :(   I can understand why system players would love his post, because it gives them hope, but he is very wrong, and dangerously wrong too. Out of all the ways you can choose numbers based on spin history, betting on "equilibrium" is the worst, and Palestis even recommends that you increase your stake after several losses. C'mon guys, this is rookie stuff.
 
The following users thanked this post: kav

MickyP

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #38 on: January 16, 2018, 09:45:16 AM »
I know why you are travelling on the wrong bus Mike. It's because you have stereotyped system players into felt playing morons who never look at the wheel for fear of going blind.

A bias wheel can be identified from simple spin history and anyone who uses spin history will be able to identify this. Equalibrium thus may not be reached at its average point if a bias is present in the wheel. Depending on how prominent the bias is, it will be identified and factored into the system play.

There is a lot more to system players than you give them credit for. Oh wait... you don't give them credit at all. Your knit picking may seem as though you have thought long and hard about the subject but looking back over your post history I conclude that you are on the wrong bus looking to justify why you are on that bus.
 

Mike

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #39 on: January 16, 2018, 10:21:30 AM »
Micky,

Please try to attack the message and not the messenger. The fact that you say I'm "nit picking" shows that you haven't really grasped the distinction I'm making between "prediction" of future spins and "influencing" them. And no, I don't think all system players are morons, some highly intelligent people believe that systems work. These are not easy topics to understand, and probability theory is notorious for even experts making mistakes.

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. Take any trigger based on spin history and see if the results are any different from random selections. You'll find that they are not. Palestis has tried to argue in another thread that triggers do a make a difference, but his argument was flawed because it was based on insufficient data from Wiesbaden.
 

MickyP

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #40 on: January 16, 2018, 10:27:53 AM »
Point taken Mike. I was out of line but....No buts,  I apologise for degrading the discussion to a personal attack.
 
The following users thanked this post: Mike

Mike

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #41 on: January 16, 2018, 10:35:40 AM »
There are patterns in spin histories that can be recognized, studied & exploited.  Probability is not a myth and it applies to every spin, AS WELL AS spin histories AND future spins.

Yes, spin histories can help you to discover how outcomes are distributed, and therefore help you to select an appropriate probability model. But they can't help in predicting the next SEQUENCE of outcomes, or the next single outcome. A sequence implies ORDER, and the probability model you use, even if correct, cannot tell you anything about the order of the outcomes; a probability model or distribution will only tell you that there will so much of X, Y, and Z, not the order that they come in. To predict that you need causes, and even VB can't help to predict a future sequence of outcomes, only the next outcome.
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #42 on: January 16, 2018, 10:49:05 AM »
Finally!!! At least someone understand that simplistic probability model need to be updated in order to reflect reality of every individual situation. Bravo Mike. 
 

MickyP

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #43 on: January 16, 2018, 11:17:43 AM »
There are patterns in spin histories that can be recognized, studied & exploited.  Probability is not a myth and it applies to every spin, AS WELL AS spin histories AND future spins.

Yes, spin histories can help you to discover how outcomes are distributed, and therefore help you to select an appropriate probability model. But they can't help in predicting the next SEQUENCE of outcomes, or the next single outcome. A sequence implies ORDER, and the probability model you use, even if correct, cannot tell you anything about the order of the outcomes; a probability model or distribution will only tell you that there will so much of X, Y, and Z, not the order that they come in. To predict that you need causes, and even VB can't help to predict a future sequence of outcomes, only the next outcome.

Now that makes sense.  Spin history does assist in narrowing down the probability of a hit within X number of spins. Not an exact science but using spin history can direct you to a probable hit within your bet selection.
 

scepticus

Re: Spin history as a tool.
« Reply #44 on: January 16, 2018, 11:31:12 AM »
No Mike, We don't need "causes" when "Effects" are sufficient.
All you are doing is recycling the widely accepted- unthinking- view.
As for VB, biased wheels . The Theory is good but it needs to be able to be successfully practiced and I don't think you can do that . Can you ?