Author Topic: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool  (Read 6556 times)

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MrPerfect.

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #15 on: December 11, 2017, 01:57:00 PM »
Mike, are you same Mike from foresters forum?
 

Jesper

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #16 on: December 11, 2017, 02:33:37 PM »
Mike

A real advantage could be something imperfect in the wheel, but I do not think that exist in case of colours.
It is never a fallacy betting black anytime as such.
 
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Mike

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #17 on: December 11, 2017, 03:55:34 PM »
@ Mr P,

No. Different Mike. I've never been a member of myrulet.

@ Jesper,

You're talking about bias, not dependency. It's unlikely that an even chance would be biased because they're evenly distributed around the wheel, although I do recall Real talking about a case in which that actually happened. I think it had something to do with different pads for red and black being replaced on a wheel.

As regards dependency, I think actual cases of this are very rare, and an EC is no less likely to show a dependency than any other bet.

@ Reyth,

It seems like you've made it a point of principle to say I'm wrong, even when I agree with you.  ;)
 

Reyth

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #18 on: December 11, 2017, 11:54:43 PM »
If you had agreed with me I would have fainted.
 

Mike

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #19 on: December 12, 2017, 08:16:05 AM »
Reyth,

I AM agreeing with you, are my posts so unclear that you can't see it?

You're basically saying that we can't assume that roulette outcomes are always random and that therefore triggers won't work. That's what I'm saying too. And we can't accuse someone of committing GF unless they explicitly say that outcomes ARE random. This is also in agreement with what Mr P says.
 

dobbelsteen

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #20 on: December 12, 2017, 10:23:14 AM »
If a player thinks ,he can predict the outcome of the next spin, he falls is the mouse trap of GF. The AP player thinks he can predict the outcome of the next spin. On this forum  I have not met an AP player with a plan. AP players also walk against a long streak  no hits. No one explains his method to overwin a negative streak.
A gambler struggles always with the GF.
A roulette player with a system and a strategy knows , he can not predict the next spin. A player plays sessions and expect a win within a number of spins. His expectation is based on his knowledge of the features of random sequences. The equilibrium feature is one important feature. He uses also the probability of events not the spin. He knows that the result of a fixed event in the short run can be positive or negative. The successful player leaves a session after a positive balance. Hit and run. The roulette must spin and the player may bet.
I use more than one method for different chances.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #21 on: December 12, 2017, 10:44:53 AM »
A gambler struggles always with the GF.
  The only reasonable statement in your post.
 

MickyP

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #22 on: December 12, 2017, 11:00:26 AM »
I beg to differ MrPerfect.
Dobbelsteen has sketched a realistic overview of how system/strategy players perceive the game.

We all have thoughts and ideas embedded in our minds, that to a degree govern our outlook on the game in general.

Arguments as opposed to discussions mostly stem from mental blocks we have cultivated as a defence against anything that challenges our self righteous path to the holy grail.
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #23 on: December 12, 2017, 11:15:24 AM »
MuckyP,  wanna differ, do it, no need to beg for it.
    On my personal opinion he has no any remote idea of what he is tolking about, yet l found a statement that made sense for me. I even highlighted it , what else l can do?
     I really do not belive that there are many system/ strategy players out there. And his opinions about game in general do not represent them either. I know few that are suxsesful.  These are strategy/ system players.
    Roulette is not that difficult game, you know. Just needs a little patience to determine what exactly gonna work on the wheel you play.
   
 

MickyP

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #24 on: December 12, 2017, 11:33:26 AM »
"I beg to differ " is just an English phrase that is commonly used. I wasn't actually begging. Lol

My opinions are not a representation of system/strategy players either but simple a contribution to hopefully the betterment of that player type.

I value Dobbelsteen's opinions not as a representation of the group but as a serious contributer to the group.

I'm sure there are more system/strategy players than you care to imagine. Is it because you viewed his comments about AP that you chose to attack his integrity?

I value your opinions and contributions as well but that does not mean that I will blindly accept  everything you say.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #25 on: December 12, 2017, 12:30:59 PM »
 What he did ever contributed ?
   It wasn't " comments" about AP, it's just many words together of someone who has no idea what he is tolking about.
   I'm not atacking his " integrity", there is none to atack  ...
   How you can defend someone that waiting something to happen in random and claming that gamblers always are under gf? What "integrity" is that?
   If you see any, you are not entitled to speak about " blind accepting" either.
   Should l continue? I desist... instead of reasonable discussion it becomes multiplting of non cense.
 
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #26 on: December 12, 2017, 12:44:18 PM »
OK
 We can do much more simple. Who here has a system that has any logical background to it, no need math, just explain in simple words why it shold work and how it affects the odds of the game?
   I start.
 I got a system that disrupts odds,  it's based on phenomenon that no wheel is perfect. Non perfect wheel produces non random results.
  If results are positive by its nature,  skip and consequtive hits analysis start to make sense and do not represent gf. Extra hits has to be destributed somehow and form patterns naturally.  System is to define triggers and explore these patterns based on genuine conditions in play interacting with non random wheel results.
   Next?
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #27 on: December 12, 2017, 12:47:49 PM »
That's how integrity looks like!!! Anyone open for discussion, In general or any statement separately?  I stay my ground for every word.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 01:09:07 PM by MrPerfect. »
 
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Fyodor

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #28 on: December 12, 2017, 01:32:27 PM »
Gamblers Fallacy is not only REAL, It is pervasive, it affects everyone who plays, win, lose or draw.
Everything from, "I won early, so now I am playing with the Casinos money!" to
 "I am on a roll, the house can't beat me today!"
And including the concept of "Easy Wheels" and "the Dealer is "secretly" trained to avoid spinning the ball to heavily wagered zones on the felt.
Whatever you think you know about Roulette, is correct, one minute, and exactly the opposite, one minute later, every chart and graph you compile, the hours of work you put into it, gone in a flash!
Here are some of the wager strategies I rely on.
The strike rate, when the right equilibrium is achieved, is around 20%, and, MrP, I keep it all in my head, while playing two wheels at the same time.
I need not keep score to know where my balance is,
 - Up or Down, and adjust accordingly.
On the EU wheel there are many permanent patterns to refer to, Inc.
9×4=(4 outlay),
12×3=(3 outlay)
12×1=(1 outlay)
3×3=(6 outlay)
1×3=(3outlay)
3×4=(3outlay)
None of them rely on the traditional "french" patterns.

 

Mike

Re: Gamblers Fallacy as a positive tool
« Reply #29 on: December 12, 2017, 02:03:10 PM »
"I am on a roll, the house can't beat me today!"

This is actually the hot hand fallacy, which is expecting a run to continue, rather than a reversal (GF). If you're going to bank on a fallacy, the hot hand fallacy is the preferred option because sometimes there are good reasons for a run to continue (by "run" I don't necessarily mean consecutive hits, just hits above expectation). Although theoretically there might be a reason for a reversal to occur, there are many more reasons why the hot hand is the better "positive tool".