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Author Topic: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?  (Read 6179 times)

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dobbelsteen

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #60 on: November 25, 2017, 10:34:34 AM »
there are infinite roulette systems. Beautiful and ugle, simple and complex.high risk and low risk , bad and good and many more. There are also 37 chances. All systems have a permanent loss after a number of spins. That point is where short run turns into long run. That point I have called the Dubbelsteen Turn Over Point. The DTOP depends on the largeness of the number bet. For large number bet wagers this point is easy to compute with a computer simulation program. For the 18 number bets (ECs)it is about 150 spins.
With this certainty smal number bets are played in the short run. Win and los fluctuate. The system player try to  use the peaks and the valleys with a strategy and betting schemes.

There is an important difference  between small and big number bets. On the long run both type of wagers will loss 2,7% of the total sum of the bets. That means that the big number bet player losses the most money.
Small number bet system are very dull

Only a strategy with a simple system and a careful betting scheme, experience and skill make a successful player.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #61 on: November 25, 2017, 01:35:20 PM »
 There are "systems" with a positive expectation... no DTOP for these . It's dealer signature family systems. I developed 3 different of these, that in shell are all the same with minimal variations.
    Problem of systems in general is inability of player to choose triggers and bet selections wisely.
    For example, "red" - is not a bet selection... but distances between hit numbers or some other points into the spin may very well to be one. I say "may", because it's not always that straight forward..  quite often need to make adjustments based on knolidge we may aquire from proper study of the wheel and dealler/ ball.
    Trigger for these systems is " consystency" of variables in place, consystency of expected results. 
    Someone who is well developed player , could tell that it's not a "system", but vb... well , he would be right. Don't wanna argue about that, l belive roulette player should use all information avaliable to him to place his bets.
 
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dobbelsteen

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #62 on: November 25, 2017, 02:50:42 PM »
MrP your approach of the roulettegame is from an other world then mine. You speak a total other language..
A system needs fixed rules. VB is not a system ,it is method based on experience and skill. Every time you throw sand in the discussion.
 Describe a system with a positive expectation and make an Excel spread sheet.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #63 on: November 25, 2017, 04:12:17 PM »
It's not "sand" grains that lm " throwing" into discussion, these are diamonds ;). Unfortunately not everyone is qualified to recognise real value of information,  that's why many people just passing by instead of picking these diamonds up.
   I already did gave such an example and made a spreadsheet. . Ets. It can be found under " sequential ..." in system only part of forum.
    Dobbelsteen, if someone does not work on his own understandING,  it doesn't mean that information he is getting is incorrect,  it's just mean that such an individual is unable to process it properly.
 

Reyth

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #64 on: November 26, 2017, 05:01:03 PM »
And Reyth, if you would like to play a single number or split exclusively, why don't you?
And how do you describe that as "additional cost"?

I play with the highest probabilty to hit that I can find practical.  When moving inward on the felt, the cost to achieve this high probability becomes more and more expensive the farther I move in.

Quote
And a single wager "split"-I could not do that.
I sort of understand you regarding the continuity sequence of the layout, as I regard the wheel (number) sequence, but, for me the wheel sequence allows a zone cover, similar to a near-neighbour wager on a "racetrack" layout.
The only way to secure a "splits" wager, is to fill in and cover the intervening number.

The felt has the same characteristics as the wheel (when no AP factors are considered).  The entire wheel and felt (all selections) influence the behavior of any one selection and vice-versa.

Quote
Like watching a real horse race, but with roulette there is only one "horse" to watch.

Even if I was playing a wheel-based system, I would be watching multiple horses.  In an ideal race, I will watch as the wheel focuses in first on 3-4 of those horses and then provides 2 front runners.  I will bet the current front runner as all the other horses fall steadily farther behind.

So what's the consensus here?  Is playing 30 numbers just as good as playing 4 numbers?  Are "cold numbers just as effective as "hot" numbers?  My intuition tells me a small amount of hot numbers, or recent repeaters, will be a superior bet.  I guess it comes down to personal preference if all bets are equal.

We have to broaden our view beyond our personal "comfort zone" to be able to conceptualize how sleepers and repeaters can be two sides of the same coin.

To give a general example, playing a larger number of sleepers can be found to perform similarly to a fewer number of repeaters.  There is a trade-off with cost:hit ratio but without making that mental adjustment, it wouldn't seem possible.

The main thing is that we all play in the way that we are most comfortable with. :)
« Last Edit: November 26, 2017, 05:16:11 PM by Reyth »
 

Fyodor

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #65 on: November 28, 2017, 03:55:18 AM »
I head into a Casino with the intention and expectation that my 4A will be successful.
I deliberately have no plan in mind beforehand.
All I expect to be provided with is a fair game of roulette.
The "bias" often referred to in these forums, is more likely an extension of "gamblers fallacy" than any physical alignment of a machined or engineered piece of expensive equipment.
Ball composition and density, predominant  diamonds, scalloped, angled shallow or deep pockets, who cares?
And more to the point, what does anyone, as an invited player to an establishment of RaR expect to do about?
"Yes, certainly Sir, we will only use the 25mmTeflon ball, in conjunction with the deep pocket, 32inch Hustle Raptor, throwing the ball in a clockwise direction, at median velocity!"
"We hope that suits your absolutely amazing system, and wish you all the luck in the world."
Are some bets (and expectations) worse than others? -YES!
Any layout bet that has a possible return, less than the total number of units expended, ie; randomly scattered, is about as bad as it gets.
Believing that a number/dozen/colour is "due" is a close second in the sucker category IMO.
 
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MickyP

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #66 on: November 28, 2017, 07:44:57 AM »
Fyodor , you are pretty much on the mark about the general approach of roulette system players. All we really care about is a fair game loaded with the expectation of walking out with a profit. But human nature loves to pioneer new ground so we join forums and explore other possibilities that we have not thought of ourselves. Curiosity I believe is the right word to best describe this human behaviour.

I think forums are beneficial to all who aspire to learn more and improve their game even if the information you read and test directs you back to your own time tested system, it was perhaps an expensive lesson avoided.

To answer the question, Yes, some bets are worse than others but this is relative to the system or approach played. However, regardless of the bet, the payout always short pays by the house edge.
 
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Fyodor

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #67 on: November 28, 2017, 10:17:02 AM »
Worse than that, the phantom (2.7027027027%) house "edge" disguises a harder "edge!"
The benchmark only applies at one wager point, that is where you have placed one unit/chip on one single number- (per spin)
The withholding of the correct payout (36to1) as opposed to 35to1, means that not only did the "house" underpay correct odds, your signified "winning" chip was just a positional marker.
It gets worse very quickly.
By the 35to1 reasoning, a split/cheval should pay 17.5 to 1, and becomes more diluted as you go through streets, double streets and etc..
Best illustration of the worst case scenario is that if you place a maximum wager on a single number, say 29 with table limit chips (100 units each) and you cover 1x EP, 8xSPLT 16xCNR, 3x STRT, 12xLN, the outlay is 40x100 unit chips, (4000units)
Ball lands in 29!
Payout is an INCREDIBLE 39,200 UNITS!
-------Wait a minute, is that right?
Yes it is, and the odds are a paltry 9.8 to 1.
But, you didn't lose any chips, however, because of the splits, corners and lines a total of 28 chips did not provide ANY return, they just sat there, making the table "Look" generous.
And that was a MAXIMUM WINNING WAGER!
What "kills" you at the table, is not that tiny, often misquoted 2.7% it's the ATTRITION RATE.
That will dash your dreams and hopes almost every time.

 
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MickyP

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #68 on: November 28, 2017, 10:28:08 AM »
A well scripted reply. This is how we learn. Thank you Fyodor.
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #69 on: November 28, 2017, 11:37:06 AM »
House edge and other obstacles to win are there to scare fools.
   There is absolutely no reason to hunt for individual number with " complete bet". If someone is that greedy, with some traveling he can find higher table limit or invite a friend(s) to maximise take per hour.
 
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Reyth

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #70 on: November 28, 2017, 03:14:57 PM »
Awesome post Fyodor!  Still trying to wrap my brain around that!! :D

So far my thoughts are running as follows:

1) We will lose more than we win
2) We must use probability & money management to overcome our losses or our wins will not be enough to be profitable

PROBABILITY --> A combination of bet selection & statistics where we configure our bets to have the greatest chance of hitting

MONEY MANAGEMENT --> A recovery betting plan that increases the size of our gains so we recover faster than we lose, while at the same time minimizing our risk in case of further losses

Money management is not separate from probability & statistics, instead it harmonizes with them as an integral part of the whole.

Money management relies upon probability for its very survival.

In other words, each component must be designed with the others in mind; each relies upon the others for its success.

Here is a post that I really like about the money management concept:

https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=2.msg26944#msg26944

and the post below it, 2 posts down, with the graphic.

If we do our job well in designing all of these systems both accurately & synergistically, we can be profitable.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 12:17:24 AM by Reyth »
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #71 on: November 29, 2017, 12:16:46 PM »
Who is planning to recover is planning to loose first and then struggle. ....
    It's not a good idea to recover. Wright down the loss and go after the win that is much higher then any loss posible. After few of these wins you will forget about recovery forever.
 
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Reyth

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #72 on: November 29, 2017, 03:29:11 PM »
I noticed that is your approach such as:

Quote from: Senor Perfecto
How to explain. ... lm doing good, better then 99.9 % of players .
   Last time l remember l had 8 sessions wins on the row and made 40k gbp during them. Longest was 2 hours and brought me 20k of these 40.
    Sessions on the row show very little in my case as l do not put " not to loose " as an objective by itself. Losses are programmed in my way of play,  at least 10% of the sessions l will naturally loose due to very agressive way of betting.
    Betting agressive is what permits me to achieve results l want ( win/ target/ money per hour) and avoid big mistakes and losses.

:D
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #73 on: November 29, 2017, 05:53:46 PM »
It's most reasonable thing to do...
   If game doesn't go well, no need to stay there... better come later when it makes more friendly conditions. 
 

Jesper

Re: Are Some Bets Worse Than Others?
« Reply #74 on: November 30, 2017, 05:32:29 PM »
Hedge bets on a table with -EV  is not the best option, but OK better win on betting a few  more numbers, dispite it is not optimal.  On a Wheel with fair odds we can hedge free at no cost.

The worse bet is "Overhedge" like stupid bets (which happen)  six on low and hedge 3 on high in case!!!
If it is a single zero on the wheel ( or God forbid two zeros)  it is not at all a good bet.

Some  "cover zero" is bad practise, they bet on high or red, and hedge zero, a number as any not red/high number, why not hedge  number 11?
 
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