### Author Topic: Dobbelsteen`Blog  (Read 259216 times)

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#### MickyP

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #780 on: August 20, 2019, 11:23:14 AM »

#### scepticus

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #781 on: August 20, 2019, 07:10:34 PM »
" 7 red numbers in a row. A sequence of 8 red numbers has a chance of 1/ 2^8 The expectation is
the next number is black."
That, Dobbelsteen, is an example of The Gambler's Fallacy.  Assumig that a change  is expected after X numbers of  one colour. and why the  need for a virtual bet if a change is due after 7 of one  colour  ? Newbies should not be encouraged to use he Gamblers'Fallacy .

#### MickyP

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #782 on: August 20, 2019, 08:55:24 PM »
Expectation simply means you expect it to occur and not that it will definitely occur. A dozen is expected to occur once in three spins, does it?

#### scepticus

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #783 on: August 21, 2019, 01:47:02 AM »
Expectation simply means you expect it to occur and not that it will definitely occur. A dozen is expected to occur once in three spins, does it?

" Expectation " in gambling  terms refers to the mathemtically calculated probability of an occurence . As you say , it is not guaranteed  but  Dobbelsteen's view is Gamblers' Fallacy . Members should refer to the Vitorwally post containing an Expectation Chart.  Newbies - and others  - need to consider the probability of losing  as well as the probabiity of winning .
« Last Edit: August 21, 2019, 01:50:04 AM by scepticus »

#### dobbelsteen

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #784 on: August 21, 2019, 08:26:22 AM »
There are more than one definitions of the GF .My theory is based on the wave movement of the outcome and statistic chances  of particular streaks.. In my reply I wrote the expectation of a outcome in the next few spins. GF expect a hit in the next spin.
Wager with a bet selection and a system with a strategy is not GF.

#### MickyP

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #785 on: August 21, 2019, 09:48:40 AM »
Septic will not understand the use of a strategy.

Is the 9 block concept not based on GF? It comes complete with a guarantee that goes against the plumbers point of view.

#### scepticus

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #786 on: August 21, 2019, 01:40:22 PM »
the Gamblers' Fallacy is the expectation that a change is DUE  -  not necessarily on the next spin . All other definitions are false .

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#### MickyP

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #787 on: August 22, 2019, 01:30:51 AM »
Expectation will always be for the opposite with EC bets on the next spin. If the last result was black then you expect the next result to be red. Expectation is not a prediction method. It is simply a guide of what to expect within "normal" distribution.
Is it normal to see 12 consecutive black numbers come up? No, and it is obvious judging by spin history that the event is somewhat rare. So, is it safe to assume that because it is not likely to occur (based on the frequency of the occurrence) that after say 8 blacks have appeared in a row we can bet that within 5 spins a red will come up? I don't classify this as GF.

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#### Jesper

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #788 on: August 22, 2019, 07:16:58 AM »
How can we avoid GF?  As all prediction attempts are GF on a fair wheel. We must bet to play, and try getting a hit, If we bet red after long black or bet black, which of the bets are GF?

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#### SugTips

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #789 on: August 22, 2019, 07:23:34 AM »
If we bet red after long black or bet black, which of the bets are GF?

Thanks God and Good Morning All.
Thanks jesper.

We start betting red with Neg prog. The other type is GF.

Example if 1000 ppl tonight visit their local casinos, how many will find 18 black in a row?

I know what I am saying.

Love and Light,
Sugtips

#### Jesper

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #790 on: August 22, 2019, 07:53:28 AM »
A player seeing 10 EC in a row, starting a ten step martingal has less than 1 out of 1000 to  lose. That is the same regardless of the history. But the player think, it may not happen back to back. The player see the last ten spins as a loss, he avoid by not bet. In all studies of player behavior most of them play for change in 10 spins,

#### scepticus

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #791 on: August 22, 2019, 07:59:01 AM »
Oh ! Come on guys ! Come on !

the Gamblers' Fallacy is the expectation that a change is DUE  -  not necessarily on the next spin . All other definitions are false .
THAT is the definition of Gamblers'Fallacy not just ANY misunderstanding !

You guys still have a lot to learn about gambling !
« Last Edit: August 22, 2019, 08:00:36 AM by scepticus »

#### MickyP

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #792 on: August 23, 2019, 12:49:54 AM »

the Gamblers' Fallacy is the expectation that a change is DUE  -  not necessarily on the next spin . All other definitions are false .
THAT is the definition of Gamblers'Fallacy not just ANY misunderstanding !

If the third dozen hits three times in a row I must bet on it again to avoid GF... If the zero comes up twice in a row I should bet on it again to avoid GF...!

Change is part of the game so believing that change will occur cannot be GF.

A dozen can sleep for 20 plus spins, rare but it does happen, Playing that dozen to "normal distribution" or normal expectation (3/4 spins) is not GF but if you continue playing it believing that it must come up then you get caught up in the fallacy.

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#### SugTips

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #793 on: August 23, 2019, 01:00:15 AM »
Good post MickyP

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#### Jesper

##### Re: Dobbelsteen`Blog
« Reply #794 on: August 23, 2019, 03:19:10 PM »
If we try to completely avoid "scep GF" we bet static or do another (silly) GF. The both can win-