Author Topic: Progressions vs flat betting  (Read 4367 times)

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petespin

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #90 on: January 12, 2019, 02:57:22 PM »
Yes and why to temper with something that is very dangerous when at the same time all u need is patience!
 

petespin

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #91 on: January 12, 2019, 03:02:29 PM »
What I do is to use higher size unit at some point , no progression, just to grow your unit from  5 to 10 when circumstances are by your side .
 

Stratege

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #92 on: January 12, 2019, 05:56:32 PM »

PETESPIN, really, you put your finger on the big problem: patience !
Everything is organized in a casino to put the customers in a comfort that puts an end to all the vigilances. Casino boss is a job. It's been 300 years since casinos passed on the professional good manners to receive customers and "help" them to have fun! I then congratulate the casinos who come on the forum to know if we will not all win soon! 8) We first need to learn patience! Yes, Petespin, you make a paroli when the moment is favorable. The progression of the bet on the spins that have a higher probability of winning us is the exception that confirms the rule of flat betting !
« Last Edit: January 12, 2019, 06:00:10 PM by Stratege »
 

Stratege

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #93 on: March 13, 2019, 07:27:20 PM »

RINAD wants a comparison between progression and flat betting, the rise of Alembert is the simplest to make calculations because we know that this progression wins 1/2 unit per spin played.
Imagine a method that earns 1% with the flat bet. Let's say it takes 100 units of capital to hold. After 100 x 100 spins (or 10 000 spins) there are 100 units won that allow you to double your capital. With the rising of Alembert will also have to take 100 terms (1 + 2 + 3 ... + 99 + 100) is in total 5050 units [(1 + 100) x 50]. The D'Alembert will win in 9,900 spins (10,000 - 100), 1/2 piece per spins played, or 4950 units + 100 units won thanks to this 1% advantage. That is a gain of 5,050 units. There is equality of benefits between the d'Alembert and flat betting !
Now imagine a method that wins 2% with the flat bet. Let's say it takes 100 units of capital to hold. After 100 x 100 spins there are 200 units gained which allow to triple its capital. With the rising of Alembert will also have to take 100 terms (1 + 2 + 3 ... + 99 + 100) is in total 5050 units [(1 + 100) x 50]. The D'Alembert will win in 9,800, 1/2 piece by spins played, 4,900 + 200 units won thanks to this 2% advantage. The intuitions on the progressions are here not so good because the d'Alembert is very far from having tripled its capital !!!

The conclusion (with these figures) also suggests that a progression can beat the flat bet with a 0% method but it is hypothetical in practice because of the variance that requires a huge capital. But in theory, where the flat bet pays nothing, the d'Alembert or another progression can do better.
A progression does not show in the examples that its main quality is to make more profit. At best, it allows you to withdraw earnings more often from your method. It should be added that a method with a positive expectation
has two qualities: to fight against variance with the least possible number of units and to make profit in flat bet. Add to that a complex progression is often complicated. But that does not prevent him from doing his theoretical research  ;)
 

scepticus

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #94 on: March 17, 2019, 02:10:21 PM »
 You need to have the winning number in your selection to make a profit.  The key , therefore , is to concentrate on WHAT to bet . There have been many progressions posted here and I am not aware of any that have stayed the course . Many discussions of progressions have taken place and all have frittered away.  Risking  Lots for Littles seems foolhardy to me.

Flat Bets can be  monotonous but small wins can add up.
Low Risk - Low ProfitsHigh  Risk - High Profits.
The fun is in the Chase  ;D
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #95 on: March 17, 2019, 06:40:52 PM »
Wise ( moderate)negative progression may be very good where bet selection is positive and hits are frequent,  but time to play it is reduced ( limmited)
 
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Rinad

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #96 on: March 18, 2019, 02:48:36 PM »


      here is the difference.

  flat betting is like taking the merry-go-round.
 progressions is like taking the roller-coaster.

   at the end you end up ate the same place you started but it is a much different experience. to each his own.

   they are both different tools and have their place. I love both and they both can be used in the same game.
R.
 
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Third

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #97 on: March 18, 2019, 02:53:47 PM »
they are both different tools and have their place. I love both and they both can be used in the same game.
R.

 

scepticus

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #98 on: March 18, 2019, 04:20:05 PM »
 flat betting is like taking the merry-go-round. progressions is like taking the roller-coaster.
Rinad
 ;D ;D ;D
 

Third

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #99 on: March 19, 2019, 12:51:32 AM »
Flat betting is very useful for the following:

1) Eliminating negative variance (minimize cost subsequent to an intial Loss Event)
2) Anticipating negative variance (minimize cost prior to a Loss Event)

So we have the cycle:


Where "P" is when we PRESS (raise) and "F" is when we FLAT BET.  Green is when positive variance is present, red is when negative variance is present and yellow is the signal for when both positive and negative variance are beginning.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2019, 12:54:26 AM by Third »
 

scepticus

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #100 on: March 19, 2019, 02:25:05 PM »
Third

How can you " eliminate  negative variance " ?
 How do you " anticipate negative vartiance " ? 

 

Third

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #101 on: March 19, 2019, 02:33:16 PM »
You simply flat bet until it goes away and if the statistical model shows that a correction is DUE (I don't have to worry about the GF because the Statistical Rubber Band will snap back after I am done Dancing Between The Raindrops), you start flat betting until it manifests and continue until a positive signal is received.

A few useful signal methods are:

1) Expectation
2) Gapping
3) Hit
4) Lack of a Hit

These four are always combined in some form or fashion; e.g. Lack of a Hit(4) within Expectation(1).
« Last Edit: March 19, 2019, 02:39:46 PM by Third »
 
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scepticus

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #102 on: March 19, 2019, 03:27:09 PM »
The Bottom Line Third.  Do you actuallyprofit by betting this ?
 

Third

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #103 on: March 19, 2019, 07:17:56 PM »
Over 11,000 units so far, real money over the last 120+ days.  I have seen some pretty horrific sequences and this system is designed to sustain them with the smallest possible losses if not outright profit.
 

scepticus

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #104 on: March 19, 2019, 08:10:47 PM »
Average  of  91+ units per day .Impressive  Third !