Author Topic: Progressions vs flat betting  (Read 4357 times)

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Third

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #30 on: January 03, 2019, 08:12:13 AM »
Here is how all winning players can agree.  We must keep our bets as low as possible at all times in order to win; flat betting is the best way to do this but not the only way.

As far as people saying "there is no way to know when to progess", a properly formed progression harmonizes with probability and is not limited in movement direction or change amount.
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #31 on: January 03, 2019, 08:26:46 AM »
Really out of the blue.
 Winning players will not agree on that by their own free will. In fact it's a countermeasures of casino egainst winning players. I myself was a victim to such a thing as " your maximum chip  is our minimum" , and it doesn't feel good .
  Flat bet becomes reasonable only in one case: you bet to table maximum and there are no more where to progress.
   If people say " there is no way to know...", it's their own limitations speaking.  It has nothing to do with reality. Home work and dedication is required in order to overcome such ideas.
    May l see an example of such " properly formed progression " wich cares for nothing? I really would like to see it in order to belive.  No offence intended. 
 
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Third

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #32 on: January 03, 2019, 08:40:21 AM »
" your maximum chip  is our minimum"

What does this mean?

Quote
May l see an example of such " properly formed progression " wich cares for nothing?

I cannot "care for nothing" because my probability of winning is far from 100% but if I am looking at a .9921 win rate and my losses are limited to a third or less than my expected wins, I simply need to play and recoup my rare losses.

Bet sizing must be very precise in amount and timing, as low as possible, does not move in one direction only and is always directly connected to the probability of winning.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 08:54:58 AM by Third »
 

Stratege

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #33 on: January 03, 2019, 08:43:09 AM »
THIRD, there is one thing you mention several times. That of probability. The problem with a negative expectation on the Wheel (-2.7%) is that there is no favorable probability (except a few specific shots from time to time). To hope for a positive wave remains a hypothesis so far that mathematicians have not resolved. The flat bet or progression is the same without a positive statistical expectation. The methods of the stock market trends for roulette have been at least 80 years old and the explanations have not changed! Sorry for Gismo!
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 08:45:55 AM by Stratege »
 

Third

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #34 on: January 03, 2019, 08:49:27 AM »
There is no need to go back to that silly argument made by people who don't play roulette or demand that we must bet based on physical causes (agenda).  Winning is the best edge.  Positive variance is guaranteed in every session and negative variance is limited by cumulative probability which is the measurable force surrounding variance.

If a person wants to buy into the AP philosophy, that's fine and well.  It doesn't mean its the only way to win.  That is just silly. 

If people are going to flat bet they need to do it because they want to, not because some maths guy tells them they have to.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 09:02:12 AM by Third »
 
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Stratege

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #35 on: January 03, 2019, 09:10:32 AM »

The best for you, THIRD, is that you work on your subject with the most serious progressions publications and that you control all this. You will then think that there are better variants, so you will test again.
A little advice, go to the sites of casinos that publish their suites of spins, and try on the most difficult days. You will save a lot of time. You will check if the cumulative probability comes up fast enough before your capital is lost. It's fast enough to check.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 09:12:39 AM by Stratege »
 

Third

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #36 on: January 03, 2019, 10:47:12 AM »
I am aware that I do not have 100% and therefore I will encounter statistical trenches that will exhaust my bankroll.  From these, I minimize my losses and retreat with as much of my table bank intact as possible.
 

Stratege

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #37 on: January 03, 2019, 11:13:10 AM »
THIRD, being aware that you have to stop some overly losing attacks is very important. Even with a
flat betting and a winning method, we stop losing attacks because a good chance phenomenon don’t always come in an advantageous way for the way it plays. The more we insist on a phenomenon, the more we need a significant capital. That's why you have to play the shortest possible flat bet games to get a better advantage. It's like pigeon shooting. If the pigeon is over, it will take a lot of cartridges to get a chance of
The big difficulty in progressions with losing parties is that you have to have a very large number of parties tested. Otherwise the results obtained may be very inaccurate. The real game does not forgive the players the slightest miscalculation. (gains/losses).
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 11:19:35 AM by Stratege »
 

Third

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #38 on: January 03, 2019, 01:15:37 PM »
That is my point.  The same techniques can be used in both flat betting and progressions.  The key is keeping the bets as low as possible and one's flexibility in approach/retreat as high as possible.

Certainly it must be true that a flat betting bankroll (with a winning method) will be lower than a progression bankroll and THAT is a discussion always worth having.

« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 01:53:54 PM by Third »
 

scepticus

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #39 on: January 03, 2019, 03:19:34 PM »
That is my point.  The same techniques can be used in both flat betting and progressions.  The key is keeping the bets as low as possible and one's flexibility in approach/retreat as high as possible.

Certainly it must be true that a flat betting bankroll (with a winning method) will be lower than a progression bankroll and THAT is a discussion always worth having.

I think that "  with a winning   method " is the key here , third.  WHAT  you bet  - the Bet Selection - takes precedence over  HOW  you bet .  If you don't have the winning number  in your selection no Progression or Flat Bet  will make your bet win. 
Whether Progression  Betting  is more profitable is  debatable . They can both lose time and again to the HE and the Progression  Bettor can recover his losses in ONE spin while the Flat Bettor needs to wait longer. There have been many Progression ideas in this forum but there seems no consensus  so is suspect  IMO .

  Flat bettors can  use bigger stakes than Progression Bettors so don't need to keep  the stakes LOW .  Flat Betting  can be a grind but  psycholgically  preferable to progression Betting. IMO of  course !
 
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gizmotron

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #40 on: January 03, 2019, 03:24:30 PM »
THIRD, there is one thing you mention several times. That of probability. The problem with a negative expectation on the Wheel (-2.7%) is that there is no favorable probability (except a few specific shots from time to time). To hope for a positive wave remains a hypothesis so far that mathematicians have not resolved. The flat bet or progression is the same without a positive statistical expectation. The methods of the stock market trends for roulette have been at least 80 years old and the explanations have not changed! Sorry for Gismo!

What a moron. My student from across the world, just after 30 days of training at 2 hours per training session, went on to a 4.7 session win rate for every lost session he experienced for the next 30 days of 2 hour training times for each session. He did it right in front of me too. In fact I still have every email between us. He had my training software and he proved to me that someone could be taught in a short time to be an expert.

This is what happened. He lost the expected amount as you suggest must be lost in the long run. He just capitalized on the trends, just like the stock trader. Please take not that the stock trader stays out of huge losing trends. That alone changes the confounding arithmetic that you are so attached to.

So this is the reincarnation of Snowman, Caleb, The General, the life that never dies.

You made me so mad that I wanted to take on one more student just to prove you wrong. Same conditions, 2 hours per day in front of me emailing back and forth using my software for practice. ...and I just realized that your crud is troll craft. It is you that must prove it. 80 years of anything does not prove that that anything was ever right or wrong. I hold the winning hand here. I can destroy your assumptions of arithmetic and math any time I decide to wreck it all. You can't make me mad enough to wreck things. SOC...
 
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Third

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #41 on: January 03, 2019, 03:35:33 PM »
There is no way this guy is Real.  Besides, review all his posts, he has quality system-based methods and ideas too.

I think that "  with a winning   method " is the key here , third.  WHAT  you bet  - the Bet Selection - takes precedence over  HOW  you bet .  If you don't have the winning number  in your selection no Progression or Flat Bet  will make your bet win.

The method I use is based on the idea that all bet selections will pay off because negative variance can only last for so long before it breaks.  Now, I am not so much the idealist regarding this philosophy, so don't get me wrong, I fight hard tooth and nail to obtain the best selection I can at all times because I know what it is like to be betting on the worst numbers and I definitely don't want to go through that until roulette finally drags me into it by force; there is no way I am volunteering for that!  ;D
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 03:40:24 PM by Third »
 

scepticus

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #42 on: January 03, 2019, 03:38:32 PM »

So this is the reincarnation of Snowman, Caleb, The General, the life that never die  Gizmo
..and you can add " Houston " to that list .  He is , by his own  admission  ,an employee of  a casino . In what capacity I do not know.  He is not"  dumb"  but posts to tease us - and enjoys it !
Third
What " Quality based systems  " when he derides systems   ?
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 03:43:19 PM by scepticus »
 

Third

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #43 on: January 03, 2019, 03:45:16 PM »
https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=2635.msg42521#msg42521
https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=2565.msg42514#msg42514
https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=2622.msg42498#msg42498

To name a few.  The above posts are pure gold.

If one understands that positive variance can be used to defeat the HE, its no longer necessary to adopt the AP philosophy to win.

That's the only way I can explain why people decide to follow the AP's philosophy-wise while still playing systems.

It ultimately doesn't matter I guess, everyone benefits from positive variance anyway. :)
« Last Edit: January 03, 2019, 03:50:09 PM by Third »
 

scepticus

Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #44 on: January 03, 2019, 03:51:27 PM »
Sorry Third . I misunderstood   . I  thought you were referring to  Caleb .
 
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