### Author Topic: Progressions vs flat betting  (Read 6255 times)

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#### MrPerfect.

##### Progressions vs flat betting
« on: April 08, 2017, 01:04:59 PM »
It's difficult to play when you do not know what is normal. Instead of trying to beat mathematically perfect game, focus on device itself. It will resolve 50% of your problems straight away.
Why choose predetermined dousen for example? You could always compose your own dousen with numbers that have positive expectations.  Then thing of loss/ win monitoring  will have a meaning as well.
Why look meaningless things in hopeless situation? If you are not in control of your investment - it's gambling. And do not come up with " control of expences" , this idea is flowed. Gambling is strictly loosing proposition,  game itself is mathematecally riged egainst you. It's arithmetics , Bro.

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#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2017, 07:48:58 PM »
Good result would be if you bet any other numbers, even if no progression is used.

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2017, 11:23:34 PM »
Qweak qwestionary...
Who besides me see that flat betting on all other numbers would make 200 units? It's more then 2200% money of that wonderful progression result that you guys even bother to discuss.
If not blind , post yes!!!
I do not mean trolling. I just never seen people seriously considering possibility to play with 30% negative edge. I really hope that at least anyone here stop for a second and think about it.
You guys have to understand that to play systems need to have a random game. Not random game simply mean that there is more variance. In this case in particular, it's enough to produce heart attack! !!!
If not anything, just learn simple arithmetics. If casinos see anyone to play this way , they gonna offer you room, drinks, transportation, breakfast, lanch and dinner for free. You will become fat ...

#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2017, 12:03:31 AM »
Progressions shouldn't be used to make money!!!
They are tools to amplify your win, not the tools to achieve it.... it's simply a dead end. 300 years people try, 300 years casinos prosper. 300 years of misery for punters.... They call it entertainment. ...........................

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##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2017, 12:54:29 AM »

Mr perfect,

I think you are trying to said something helpfull in terms of comparing progressions as oppose to playing flat bet. I know that if a system is of any value it will or should win by flat betting. that is true. I think players use progressions in order to make their time worth while and get in profit,or losses faster. no progression is what makes you money. it is just a mean to gain a outcome quicker in a short term. but also the risk is greater.
if you can explain further your ideas in simpler statements and examples I think it would be helpfull for many of us. I know many players dont use flat betting because of the lack of anderstanding of it.
maybe discuss the pros and cons would be easier in comparing the two ?
best,

#### Bayes

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2017, 07:25:30 AM »
One patological looser chooses worst bet possible, other congratulate him on good progression. Are you guys out of your mind?
This is your REALITY. This is what you guys face day after day.

Nice!

Mr P, FYI, the sequence I posted doesn't represent a real set of spins I actually played. The point is to compare the performance of various progressions under adverse circumstances, that's all. It may seem pointless to you, but some of us enjoy experimenting and running "what-if" scenarios.  And you never really answered my question. The REALITY is that runs from hell do occur, even for an AP. It's no good burying your head in the sand and pretending that you can side-step probability by waiting for virtual wins. How you choose to deal with the RFH is another matter. Using progressions is an option; if you think they're too risky, don't use them. Your choice.

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#### MrPerfect.

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2017, 11:40:47 AM »
Bayes, l apologise for misunderstanding of this tread... l red it superficially.  However l really hope you got my point!!!
Even the fact that you simulate such a situation  show evidence that you do not know when it's possible to win. Progressions are tools and should not be taken lightly! !! Each different case require different type of progression and case you posted require bets with value zero!!!! Instead of progressing anything player, if he really a player SHOULD RUN!!!
There are times you should play and there are times you should hold. Without clear understanding of these times , be it by statistical or physics/ statistical methods , you can not win!!!!
People loose money on the damn thing and most frequent culpit of this is people themselves! !!! Stupid decisions lead to stupid results.
Remember, HIT AND RUN SHOULD BE BASED ON YOUR PERFORMANCE AND ABILITY TO PLAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If you get it right , you will win. If not, even l can not help you.
Fighting wheel or dealer or casino or person operating rrs or clown who has control of the ball...  it's all pointless,  with all my knolidge lm able to get zero game in this situations. How many people have my level of knolidge or can have a zero game in difficult situations?
Remember, when posting , you affect opinions of inocent new fellows who will read it..... protect them from both, your mistakes and casino malice. ...

#### Stratege

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #7 on: January 02, 2019, 01:17:25 PM »

RINAD wants a comparison between progression and flat betting, the rise of Alembert is the simplest to make calculations because we know that this progression wins 1/2 unit per spin played.
Imagine a method that earns 1% with the flat bet. Let's say it takes 100 units of capital to hold. After 100 x 100 spins (or 10 000 spins) there are 100 units won that allow you to double your capital. With the rising of Alembert will also have to take 100 terms (1 + 2 + 3 ... + 99 + 100) is in total 5050 units [(1 + 100) x 50]. The D'Alembert will win in 9,900 spins (10,000 - 100), 1/2 piece per spins played, or 4950 units + 100 units won thanks to this 1% advantage. That is a gain of 5,050 units. There is equality of benefits between the d'Alembert and flat betting !
Now imagine a method that wins 2% with the flat bet. Let's say it takes 100 units of capital to hold. After 100 x 100 spins there are 200 units gained which allow to triple its capital. With the rising of Alembert will also have to take 100 terms (1 + 2 + 3 ... + 99 + 100) is in total 5050 units [(1 + 100) x 50]. The D'Alembert will win in 9,800, 1/2 piece by spins played, 4,900 + 200 units won thanks to this 2% advantage. The intuitions on the progressions are here not so good because the d'Alembert is very far from having tripled its capital !!!

The conclusion (with these figures) also suggests that a progression can beat the flat bet with a 0% method but it is hypothetical in practice because of the variance that requires a huge capital. But in theory, where the flat bet pays nothing, the d'Alembert or another progression can do better.
A progression does not show in the examples that its main quality is to make more profit. At best, it allows you to withdraw earnings more often from your method. It should be added that a method with a positive expectation
has two qualities: to fight against variance with the least possible number of units and to make profit in flat bet. Add to that a complex progression is often complicated. But that does not prevent him from doing his theoretical research
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 01:33:24 PM by Stratege »

#### Third

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #8 on: January 02, 2019, 02:43:24 PM »
"control of expenses" through a very strong (intelligent) progression and probability, simply wins.  The combination of these things aren't simple or easy (i.e. not automatic) but they are definitely effective when employed properly.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 02:45:52 PM by Third »

#### Littes

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #9 on: January 02, 2019, 02:52:13 PM »
So, what would you recommend for a just starting roulette player? Progressions or flat betting?

#### scepticus

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2019, 03:05:58 PM »
"control of expenses" through a very strong (intelligent) progression and probability, simply wins.  The combination of these things aren't simple or easy (i.e. not automatic) but they are definitely effective when employed properly.
Flat betting - Lower Risk than progressions .Lower Risk = Lower Profits  .
Progressions-  Higher Risk than Flat Betting.Higher Risk = Higher profits.
A matter of choice.

Newcomers shoud be aware that  the Run From Hell can affect both  and with Flat Betting there is less damage to the Bankroll . SAFEGUARDING  THE BANKROLL  should be the  priority .  There is too much emphasis on profits and not enough in safeguarding the bankroll.   !
The AIM is to profit .  The NECESSITY is to safeguard the Bankroll.  NO BANKROLL - NO PLAY  !

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#### Stratege

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2019, 03:30:38 PM »
LITTLE, for a beginner, it's better to watch others and play a bit with flat betting on simple chances. Itâ€™s interesting to study the game of big players who have a method, it's best for a beginner.
Ideally for you would be to find a customer who plays a method on simple chances and who has lost a lot. There you can risk a few chips.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 03:48:40 PM by Stratege »

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#### scepticus

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #12 on: January 02, 2019, 03:49:08 PM »
Actually, Littes  , it might be better to play online with Play Money.
Bet as you would if you were playing for real.   Consider what you are willing to lose and bet accordingly .

#### thomasleor

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #13 on: January 02, 2019, 03:51:28 PM »

I am happy to see that this forum have had the luck of considering you a member. I suspect you will save a lot of money for those here much less experienced and in good need of not only learning the basic ABC in roulette, but also the how and when to consider the important psychological factor (the casinos use so hard in order to gain a larger edge on newbies) whenever they engage in a game.

My hat off for you.

#### Stratege

##### Re: Progressions vs flat betting
« Reply #14 on: January 02, 2019, 04:38:55 PM »

THIRD, I am very familiar with the problem of progressions, in my youth I spent years studying this. Your post seems to me to be a very optimistic hypothesis. When we know the work and results of some mathematicians on this subject. The ceiling of the bets and the height of the capital are big problems. But these mathematicians did not have a computer.
To win with a progression without beating zero is a big challenge. I think it's easier to find a winning method with flat betting on hot numbers or on the odds.

THOMASLEOR, thank you very much for your testimony. If you feel like you're learning it's great for you. It's a profit for me to know
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 04:42:24 PM by Stratege »