Paras Paroli(my new paroli strategy)

[Romn.Paras]

Hello friends. I have come across a version of the Paroli strategy that seemed to work quite well and wish to share with all of you.

I am a big supporter of the Paroli strategy. I realize how difficult at times it is to get 8, 9 or 10 consecutive decisions in a row. Tell me what you think of this version and feel free to try it, elaborate on it, or adapt it.

Ok, we play this strategy like any of the even bets, follow the last bet. The probability of winning two bets in a row on even-money wagers is less than one in four. For this reason, one of the better ways to use the paroli is to combine it with a series of bets where the amount wagered is increased following a loss. For example, the following parloli progression could be used: 2 2 3 4 6 8 12 16. To use this series, you would normally start with the first wager in the series. If this bet won, you would next wager $4. If either the original wager or the next bet is lost you would move up one level in the betting series. Any time you win two in a row,  you will start the betting series over at the beginning . If the series is lost, you may either start the series over or leave the table.

What are you thoughts?

If I have a big enough bankroll, I take the series above and mulitply it by 5 or 10 and then play it that way.

So the series would be 10 10 15 20 30 40 60 80
or 20 20 30 40 60 80 120 160

[kav]

Hello Romn,

I find your idea very good.
It reminds me a bit my personnal version of Paroli. But I may talk about it in the future.
Basically what you are doing here is using what I call a "combined progression". You use a positive progression, but determine the initial bet using a negative progression.

So your Paroli is a 2-step Paroli?

In this case I would suggest the following milder progression for the base bet:
1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 9 12
Every time you win your 2-step paroli you are at overal profit.Try it and tell us how you like it.Aside from your great idea of a "combined progression" there is another trick you can use on Paroli that adapts it to the current situation... (teasing mystery :-)

[Romn.Paras]

That is a great idea Mr. Kav. I always enjoy your insight. You always keep me thinking which is a good thing.  I like your progression and I will practice it as well. 

Now my question to you is that is there a way to adapt this strategy to dozens? Play one dozen at a time. I have tried using the progression that I posted and then divided it by 2 because the pay outs are 2 to 1. I approach it almost in the same manner as the Labouchere for dozens. 

For example, I multiply the progression that I originally posted by 5 which is 10 10 15 20 30 40 60 80. Then I divide this progression by 2. I rounded the third number(15) up to divide by 2

I play 1 dozen with the progression 5 5 8 10 15 20 30 40 60 80 120 160.   I start with the first bet and if it wins, I leave it and see if I can win 2 dozen bets back to back. Once I win 2 dozen bets in a row, I start the progression over. This has actually worked quite well for a while. Sometimes when I play, I like to play it a little more conservative and I tend to play this way until I reach 80 and then from that point, I just try to win once and then start again so the bets don't get too high. Kind of like using the Labouchere for dozens with a stop loss. What do you think?

Thank you for inspiring me to come up with new strategies, Mr. Kav

[kav]

Thanks for your reply.

Now I got confused.  You throw Labouchere there and things got complicated. I'm not sure what exactly is this system.
But I can tell you the main idea for a combined 2-0step Paroli on dozens.

The way to think is: If we win our 2-step Paroli on dozens the total profit is 8 times our initial bet.
Therefore our base bet should be just above (our total losses/8)
Therefore a mild progression would be:
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4   (etc.)

At any time, determine your next bet using the (total losses/8) formula. If for example our total losses were 80 units, in order to be in profit with a (successful) 2-step Paroli on dozens our next bet should be 80/8 = 10 +1 (with 8 units we would be even, we add 1 unit to produce a profit.

For those who have not read it yet here is the Paroli method

However if you ask me, I would prefer a Paroli covering 2 dozens. That is a totally different story however. And needs higher bankroll. But I prefer betting on many numbers in order to reduce the volatility of hit frequency.

Hope this helps.

[Romn.Paras]

Very interesting. I like that approach.  I didn't mean to confuse with a Labouchere on dozens. I wanted to create a system that was using the same approach as the Labouchere on 1 dozen.  That is a great point you bring up that our profit on a 2 step paroli on dozens is 8 times the initial bet.

Now, I have also experimented with a version of the Fitzroy system on dozens as well. It is still in its early stages.  I got the idea when you suggested the reading "Thirteen Against the Bank" and Norman Leigh makes reference of the Fitzroy in the book on page. 54. He mentions Lord Beresford's thinking and approach. My thinking was taking a version of the Fitzroy and making it a workable system to use on dozens. On even chances I have a version that does quite well that I will share with you:

This version of the  Fitzroy system can be fairly successful if it is modified to include no more than nine or ten bets in a series of wagers, so that potential losses are limited. An additional modification to improve the system is to space the bets so that the win of two consecutive wagers will offset prior losses. A series which accomplishes this is 1 2 3 4 7 11 18. With this series, a player would drop back to the lowest bet after winning two consecutive wagers, such as 7 and 4.

What do you think? How could we make this work on dozens?  I play this sequence on 1 dozen and I am still in profit without having to have 2 consecutive wins. One win still puts us in profit with this sequence on 1 dozen. I am trying to develop better version of this so in case of an adverse run, we are minimalize the damage.

[kav]

Thanks for the reply. I do have the book and have read it, but I don't remember it very well.
Could you please explain the Fitzroy system, so we are both on the same page? (no pun intended)

[Romn.Paras]

The Fitzroy System works like this. I will paraphrase from the book.

A player stakes 1 unit on an even chance bet. Let's say red. If he wins he has 2 units. He takes back 1 unit and stakes the unit he has just won on red again. If he loses the unit he stakes 2 units. If he loses 2 units, he stakes 3 units, always increasing his stake by 1 unit. When he wins he decreases his stake by 1 unit, so that if he has 3 units on the table and he wins, his next bet will be 2 units. He increases his stake by 1 unit after a loss and decreases it by 1 unit after a win.

Then I decided to take Lord Beresford's advice and he came up with a way to make it a positive progression, by DECREASING 1 unit with a LOSS and INCREASING 1 unit with a WIN.  This is how Norman Leigh came up with the Reverse Labouchere.

I have practiced this system both ways.  The first way I explained works rather well until there was an adverse sequence. It is a "safer" version of the Martingale.

Then I took that system and reversed it like Lord Beresford did. It is a form of a Paroli that can withstand long losing streaks, but it is hard to make a real profit because you need so many wins. Your wins need to double your losses for this to work well. It sounded good on paper, but in actuality it wasn't too effective unless we modify it. Any suggestions?

So I am trying to incorporate this system into a dozen strategy. That is my new project.

Ideally, I am trying to create a strategy that in effect plays the bank's role. This causes the bank to be compelled to play the system against the player, and the bank becomes subject to all the disadvantages inherent in systems. The player can only lose his bankroll whereas the table is at risk for virtually all it carries. The table cannot get up and walk away when it chooses.

This is why the Reverse Labouchere was successful. The "Reverse" Fitzroy is a version of that.

[aafm69]

Kav
Can you please explain the Paroli covering 2 dozens...
Thanks

[dobbelsteen]

As a system ,this method wiil fail.I use such betting schedules , but I implantated them in a strategy.
I use the stasitc results of 50 events. I start betting ,when the difference between for excample Black and Red 12 events is. Sometimes I watch 3 tables and the frequence of oppertunities i very high.

[kav]

Hello Romn,

Ok, I see. The Fitzroy System is more commonly known as the D'Alembert. Indeed, although the main idea (increase when you lose, decrease when you win) seems reasonable, it does not work in real life.

I don't think that the opposite system would work for the dozens. One thing to keep in mind when you play a dozen is that 2 consecutive dozens do not happen very often. The theoretical expectation is that a dozen repeats once every 9 times.

Hi aafm69,
I do not have the time right now to write about it in depth, how ever the main way of thinking would be something like this:

1. We bet the last two dozens that have appeared
2. We aim for 3 consecutive wins (3-step Paroli)
In case of siccess our betting would be:
We bet 1 unit on each of 2 dozens (or columns). If we win we get 1 unit profit. We add another unit. Next we bet 2 units on each dozen. If we win we have 2 units profit (3 units total). Next spin we bet 3 units on each dozen. If we win we have 3 units profit (6 units total).
3. After 3 successful spins we have risked 3 units in total and have 6 units profit. Our profit is 3 times our initial bet which was 1+1=2 units.
4. A mild progression would be (betting on two dozens or columns):
1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 9 12 16
(When you win a Paroli, next attack start one step lower, if you win the attack with base bet 9, next you start with base bet 7)

Notes:
If we lose at the 1st step our loss is 2 units, if we lose at the 2nd or 3rd step our loss is 3 units
The probability to win all 3 steps is 8/27 which is higher than 8/32 which is the probability of winning a 2 step Paroli on even chances.

(Just some quick notes. Need to elaborate further.)

[Romn.Paras]

Hello Kav,

I understand what you are saying. I wanted to build on what you and I were discussing about the Paroli strategy.  I think I may have found a way to adapt the Paroli strategy to help make it more effective. What do you think about this concept. The concept here I provided is for even number bets. Eventually I will try to make it work with dozens.

Here it is:

The direct Progression on the ' Paroli 'System is almost as dangerous as the ordinary Martingale, and is
sure to bring the player to grief sooner or later. Using a modified Progression, we can obtain a sound
and reliable method. We will call it 'The Ladder System.' Our first step consists of the first six
stakes which we write down on our score-sheet horizontally as follows 111223. Now underneath each stake we will record the amount gained in the event of success. We commence by staking 1 unit and play for two consecutive wins. Every time we are successful we count the net profit on the transaction as a definite gain, and begin again with a
stake of i unit. Should we eventually lose the last stake of 3, we have made a loss of 1 + 1 + 1+2 + 2 + 3= 10 units. We then construct the Second Step of our Ladder, only instead of beginning with the stake opposite No. i' coup' we omit it, and begin with No. 2 'coup.' The Second Step of our Ladder then appears as follows 112234. Now continue playing in the same way as on Step No. 1, until either you have regained the 10 units lost or have succeeded in losing your last stake of 4 units. In the event of this happening you will have lost in addition to anything outstanding on the prevous 10 units 1 + 1+2 + 2 + 3 + 4=13 units. In order to get back these we construct a Third Step to our Ladder, beginning with the 3rd' coup'. It will appear on our score-sheet as follows 1 2 2 3 4 5 . If we fail to get back all our losses with this step, we shall have lost in addition to anything outstanding 1 + 2 + 2+3+4 + 5=17 units. Each step of our Ladder is entirely independent of the preceding one, and it will be noticed that the higher we get, the more equal the gains become. Continue on each successive step until all previous losses are wiped out, then recommence
entirely with the First Step. The above system, if strictly adhered to, can be safely recommended to a player with plenty of patience and capital at his disposal. It may be necessary to employ a 5th, 6th, and 7th Step, etc., but after a little study of the figures given above, it will be an easy matter to construct
them.

So what do you think of this twist of the Paroli?

[kav]

Hi,

I thinkd it is an extremely interesting approach.
I love Ladders and you have explained your ideas very clearly.
The problem is that it is possible to lose for example the last bet of the 2rd ladder (4 units) and then win the first step of the 3rd ladder with only 1 unit initial bet.
One of the main concepts behind Labouchere and similar systems is to try to make sure than when a win comes it is with a bet higher than the average losing bet.
This is extremely important and I plan to elaborate on this in a future article.

However I still like very much the ladder idea and it something I personaly use. How about these ladders:

1 1 1 1 1 1
2 2 2 2 2 2
3 3 3 3 3 3
etc.

See the point of this approach?

[Romn.Paras]

Hi Kav,

I definitely see the approach and I like it! So we are on the same page. On the example of the loss of 4 units on the 2 Ladder and the win on the 1st bet of the 3rd Ladder would win 2 units and then if that bet won it would give us the 4 units back that we lost. So in theory, we would win back what we lost.  I find your approach fascinating and I will practice it that way as well.

[dobbelsteen]

I have programmed in excel a paroli-system. After every loss the input increase with one unit. In the attachments you can find an example of the program and graphics for 100 and 200 events.
The profit oscilate between 5 and -10%. The result of about 10 samples is about 2,7% of                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

[kav]

I believe these ideas need more attention, study and tests. We have definitely something good here.

Here is a very similar system called "The Sure Win Method for Roulette" by Rambler.

The only principle to this system is that any even chance will repeat itself and usually quite frequently. Have you ever noticed that red or black nearly always runs in groups ? There will be occasions where it will chop sometimes several times but that will not be a problem if you show patience. I believe I have a way to eliminate losses from this.

Your first bet will be on any even chance. If you win, then leave both units on the same bet. If you win a second time, pick up your bet and return to one unit. This is the procedure on every session. If you lose, place the next bet in your progression and try to get a parlay.. The progression is shown below. A win and parlay on any step will show a profit .On any profit return to the beginning of the series. When the table is choppy you will sometimes lose several parlays. Remember that each parlay is only 1 bet. My suggestion is not to fight a choppy table or long run of the opposite of your bet but stop after 3 losses and wait until your choice shows again.

While the progression shows 18 steps I have never used more than 9. Decide where your level of comfort is and use it to make your decision as to how long to go. Here is the progression:
1-1-2-2-3-4-5-7-9-12-16-22-29-39-52-69-92-123 A total of 488 units.

Here was a game I played recently:
1Lose
1Win Parlay Win
1Win Parlay Lose
1 L
2 L
2 W PL
3 W PW
1 L
1 W PW
1 L
1W PL
2 L
2W PL
3W PW
1 W PW
1 W PW
1 L
1W PW
Profit of 20 units.
This same method of betting has been used for other casino games with some success. Included are baccarat and craps (especially the field bet) .As with any system this method can and will eventually lose. It may be the first time tried or years from now.