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Author Topic: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !  (Read 6866 times)

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Rinad

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #60 on: August 14, 2017, 12:42:48 PM »


  Mr Perfect, I am not here to "decide" if I am after RNG or REAL WHEEL>,
I am after the "difference" between the two. so that we can all see WHAT IS THAT DIFFERENCE.

I like you to explain a little more about your points, 4 an 5  if you dont mind. they are what I am after.
in simple terms how we can view the difference. many here use rx  to test strategies, ect.... and randomness is afecting the difference of outcomes.  not always easy to spot unless you have many,many spins under your belt.
I appreciate your explanation between the two. THAT IS GOOD INFO TO ME AND PROBABLY OTHERS

so the more infos the better. keep things simple for us who dont "anderstand how RNG fonction in picking numbers.

thanks.
Rinad
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #61 on: August 14, 2017, 01:47:33 PM »
Rinad, l really sudjest you not overvaluate my opinion about rng. I'm not expert in these.
 In the past l used to attack one particular slot mashine make and it's almoust only expirience l got. I fond the way to beat this paricular slot exactly the way l describe in number 3 of my previous post( groups of numbers following groups of numbers).
    As for the real wheels, they have inperfections. .. it makes some numbers or sector of numbers come more then basic probability dictates. Sectors are more likely when there are "major "problems are present related more to the other parts of wheel then number pokets.  Number pokets usually produce individual number biases .... of cause it's not written on stone and poket bias can manifest itself as a small sector as well (2-3 numbers usually) where last of these numbers will have higher hit frequency in the sector.... it usually forms kind of "stairs" pattern, if you plot standard deviation graphs for each number.
   In real wheel conditions particularly determine wich numbers will show themselves as "hot" or biased.
   Dominance of particular setts of conditions ( ball in use, direction, wheel speeds, types of dealers throw, resulting dominant ball behaviors when exiting track...ets) will particularly determine wich numbers will have higher probability to hit. Each sett of conditions will(may) have its own pattern of resulting numbers hit frequencies ( +/- posible math variance for each individual number). Need to quantify probability ( presence) of each individual set of conditions in your playing session to reliable estimate posible hit frequency for each number. Good news is that many of these conditions are semi stable and can be not only limited statistically, but do have relationship between each other and result in similar or same numbers .
    Interesting not even what it is, but what it does. It does make particular sectors of numbers or combination of numbers ( sectors) to have periodical runs ( when conditions are favorable). Numbers are in direct relationship with conditions that produce them. Roulette wheel/ ball/dealer is not stochastic but deterministic system.  Knowing relationships between the numbers and conditions we can qualify numbers by dominant conditions present and qualify conditions by numbers that hit.
   Mentioned above is a reason that permits skips of hits and repeats of hits analysis be a valuable tool. Looking closely for skips value and frequencies of numbers hit, we can determine if conditions are same or alike to these that was present in our data taking period. Skips is just misses of hits to our numbers and repeats is consequtive hits to our numbers. These can be helpful only if we know for sure that wheel is biased... normally when we arrive to this point in our data studies we know it already.
  It's very difficult to describe such a huge methodology in few words, but hope that it will help you and provide ideas for your future studies...
    Things what could help you are " mathematical modeling" , " applied statistics " , " multivariable statistics "... research these on Google for books and "how to" tutorials.
   Hope it helps.... sorry if it's a bit too difficult. 
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #62 on: August 14, 2017, 02:02:21 PM »
BTW,  if you find any word in my post difficult to understand,  l will be happy to define it for you.
   It looks a bit complicated even for myself when l read it. ;).
 
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Rinad

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #63 on: August 16, 2017, 12:48:50 AM »


   thanks for your infos, I will have to reread that post a few times. please disregard the other post and topic for i did not see that you had allready wrote here. thank you.
Rinad
 

MickyP

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #64 on: April 13, 2018, 07:51:18 PM »
A very interesting thread.

Rinad put forth some real compelling posts on the nature of roulette.

I have had a similar experience in my roulette years and from my own experience I focused more on the short games always trying to capitalise on trends in the game

Many short games do not equate to one long game because even variance has fluctuations. There are trends and patterns that form and these will shift your bankroll above or below expectation depending on how you proceed with your game.

As Rinad stated; it's always best to know when to fold (stop playing).

If it doesn't matter what's happening on the table why do the majority of knowledgeable players study tables before they select one to play on? Because they are looking for favourable conditions for the method they intend playing.

 
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mr j

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #65 on: April 16, 2018, 04:03:14 PM »
"Many short games do not equate to one long gam" >> Nope, wrong. All spins equal (in the long haul) one long long long game. Does not matter if its 5 spins (stop for the day), 40 spins (stop for the day), 68 spins (stop for the day).

Makes NO DIFFERENCE. Lets say you played 300 spins in LV. A week later you went to AC to play 17 spins. A week later you flew to Japan for another 97 spins. Its ALL one long long long game.

Ken
 
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 04:34:10 PM by mr j »
 

MickyP

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #66 on: April 16, 2018, 04:23:15 PM »
Lol. You can slice your cake any way you want Ken; or not..lol.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 05:04:48 PM by MickyP »
 

mr j

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #67 on: April 16, 2018, 04:37:46 PM »
Its a fact. I even agree, I dont like it, I honestly dont. This being true makes things tougher on myself as well BUT it is a fact. You cannot escape the house edge because of short sessions and/or hit-n-run tactics.

Ken
 

MickyP

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #68 on: April 16, 2018, 05:10:34 PM »
The house edge is constant but variance fluctuates. By not playing continuously you may avoid negative variance.
The run from hell can possibly be avoided through short session games. Play continuously and you will have to play through it if your bankroll allows.

 

Mike

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #69 on: April 16, 2018, 06:52:06 PM »
Micky,

I know this is a widely held belief among gamblers, but really, where is the logic?

Suppose you have to cross a minefield to reach buried treasure. The field is 100 metres across and you have no idea where the mines are located. Is it better to cross the field "in one go", or move a few metres then retrace your steps and continue later? Obviously it makes no difference. By breaking the journey into small sections have you made it safer? Have you reduced the distance you have to travel or made it easier to avoid the mines?
 
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MickyP

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #70 on: April 16, 2018, 07:20:19 PM »
Mike, a good example but hardly fitting. In your example the landmines are static. Variance is ever shifting. You can not compare the two.
It's more logical for me to play short games based on table trends.
Here is an example for you:
I play dozen three only and I win a number of times then dozen three goes to sleep for 15 spins. Boom there is your landmine.
I would have obviously selected to play dozen three because it was one of the dozens trending at the time. I end my game after X amount of hits (goal) or if I hit my stop loss limit.I will then observe this and other tables for a new trend and maybe it's different because I may use a  different method.
You can't magically weld short sessions together and call it one long session.

Now; if you strung a lot of short sessions together and asked me to identify the welds, I wouldn't be able to because it's just a bunch of random numbers. But wait, if I played that string of random numbers chances are I wouldn't play all of them and I'd still be looking for trends and patterns to get my game on. The trends and patterns will indicate what method I should use. And finally with my win goal breached I stop playing.
It can never be one long session. If a sequence of numbers is interrupted you can not ignore the interruption. It would be a lie if you did that.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2018, 07:26:11 PM by MickyP »
 
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MickyP

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #71 on: April 16, 2018, 08:10:44 PM »
https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=853.0

Just thought I'd attach a thread that highlights the discussion on short sessions making one long session.
Some very good points made in it.
 
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mr j

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #72 on: April 16, 2018, 10:15:18 PM »

 You can't magically weld short sessions together and call it one long session.

 

lol, actually I can.
 
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MickyP

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #73 on: April 16, 2018, 11:30:31 PM »
Amazing Grace to you.

You are blind but you will see.

 ;D
 

Rinad

Re: truth is'randomness can reduce variances or fluctuations !
« Reply #74 on: April 16, 2018, 11:51:54 PM »


  Micky, I agreed with your statements on this subject 100%.

when I started a year ago to write this post I had a answer to my question about how to reduce fluctuations.
I started to test thousands of sessions years ago, because like yourself, at first, I did noticed the difference I was having playing short sessions, cycles to be exact, and then moving from positions, and SEE HOW IT GREATELY REDUCED THE NUMBERS OF SPINS BEFORE ONE CAN GET A HIT.
i first tested it on streets. I run cycles of 12 spins, then move,ect....
then I ran a street without moving the bet ,to see if there was any differences in how many losing cycles I would get.
I did the same thing with single number play.
same with quads, all having the same results.
I would never wanted to form a opinion just based on "logic", or common sens. roulette does not care about those. if it did every one would beat the game.
the results were a great news to me. THE DIFFERENCE IS THERE TO SEE FOR ALL PLAYERS.
skips create shorter streaks.
why is that happening? I cant be sure of the "why", but it must have something to do with randomness been created and disturbing the flow you would get normally in a continuous way of play a "stand-still" event and take everything you have coming to you.
I would advice anyone to do their own research and compare the two. just see how much better your game would be if you were to aply this simple truth.
and it does not matter what system you are playing! that is the best news you can receive. science is no respector of person or method.
I just wanted to give my 50 cents to this topic. it is all good.[size=78%]God bless,[/size]
Rinad
 
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