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Author Topic: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win  (Read 7363 times)

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MickyP

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2019, 04:27:58 PM »
Jesper, strangely enough your posts make sense to an actual roulette player. I have follows your posts more out of curiosity than a latch on and learn following. I must admit that much of what you say is relevant to playing on slow B/M tables, however, I do find your general approach a bit scary and I do not think your unit size compliments your knowledge of the game. Why I say scary is because you do not use any prediction methods and simply leave everything to chance. Although your targets on the table are predetermined, it is not a result of responding to a trigger of sorts.

I wanted to share my thoughts about your posts as judging from them anyone can see that you do have a wealth of experience with the game. Maybe, your approach has been refined through your experience, who knows? You should consider starting your own thread where you can share a bit of your experience and knowledge. I'm sure your thread will be well received.
You have earned my respect. Thank you for your contributions to the forum.
 
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scepticus

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2019, 05:27:17 PM »
Jesper
Who knows how many " trials " are needed to establish an " Edge " ? It is a mistake to claim that an Edge guarantees a profit . That is the expectation but  is not a fact .

Palestis is right  when he says that Real  is speculating . Real was NOT  an AP player as he claimed here .

A SCEPtical attitude is needed here ! ;D
 

MickyP

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #17 on: July 16, 2019, 05:03:37 AM »
There we go again. The definition of edge is once again in the spotlight.

Come to think of it, the house has a 2.7% edge but do not beat all players all the time. In the long run they can still pay rent and keep the ball rolling.  ;D

A standard roulette definition of edge will be appreciated. Anyone?
 

Jesper

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #18 on: July 16, 2019, 07:08:12 AM »
As I have said, a 2,7%  edge  for the player, will not make sure of winning, never, but after 1000 of spin, it will be more and more sure.  We should know the bell curve is not resting on the x-axis, it never reach it.  From the casinos view the 2,7% is more as a fact, as they are not playing against ONE player, and they do not place the same bet. Very often there is more than 2.7 % to rake in after paying a winner.  In lotteries with 50% house advantages, there are still people winning close to a billion, which insane low probability.
 
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Joe

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #19 on: July 16, 2019, 08:17:56 AM »
Who knows how many " trials " are needed to establish an " Edge " ? It is a mistake to claim that an Edge guarantees a profit . That is the expectation but  is not a fact .
True, even casinos can go bust sometimes (rarely), but an edge does guarantee a profit -- eventually. However, in practical terms, will you get it before your bankroll runs out? That's the problem players are always facing.

Who knows how many trials are needed to establish an edge? You can always find out using maths or simulation, but there will always be a variance associated with it, as with any proposition determined by probability.
 

Joe

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #20 on: July 16, 2019, 08:27:04 AM »
A standard roulette definition of edge will be appreciated. Anyone?
A formula which applies to any gambling scenario, and investments too is the Yield Formula. Very simple:

Yield (edge) = Profit or Loss / Turnover

Where Turnover is the total amount staked. Over a large number of bets it will result in the standard -2.7%.
eg profit is 25 units and total staked is 500 units,

edge = 25 / 500 = 5%
Very easy to use and works for all kinds of bet types and progressions.

 
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Jesper

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #21 on: July 16, 2019, 08:28:04 AM »
One of the reasons I like to use positive progression, is I stay on low bets on bad streaks. And goes better on good. A negative progression earn small in good times, and lose hard in bad.  On EC I use to bet flat on break even or plus, and use positive progression to catch up. I use often then Grand Martingale, then just a few winnings in a row, catch up. The cost if not success is a chip a spin.
 
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scepticus

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #22 on: July 20, 2019, 12:02:59 PM »
Joe's  description of the House Edge is wrong . The HE is calculated BEFORE betting  -not after   and it is  fixed .

It is calculated on the ASSUMPTION that the Bettor cannot do better than Random in his  Bet Selection . It is based on an average 37  bets . For example;

Betting an Even- Money shot over 74 bets  (2 x 37 )  it is  ASSUMED that the zero will occur twice. This leave 72 bets and it is ASSUMED that the Bettor will win 36 and lose 36 .
Bets 74 x 1 =74 ,   Wins 36x 2 =72 leaving a shortfall of 2 .
2 divided by 74 = 2.7%.

As this is an Assumption it cannot be Guaranteed . Nor can the Bettor’s calculated EDGE be guaranteed .

We are at the Mercy of  Variance and can only make an Educated Guess .  Get used to it  !
« Last Edit: July 20, 2019, 12:05:20 PM by scepticus »
 

Jesper

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #23 on: July 20, 2019, 01:57:17 PM »
And we assume that, it will most of the time differ from best guess. A progression can make it worse or better. Play and see the result, stat is good to know, but never make the next spin something more than a result of chance.  If we win we did right, and that's is not more than luck. We can disturb, I.e, win more often, until the bill arrive.
 

Third

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #24 on: July 20, 2019, 02:02:22 PM »
I prefer creative debt financing!  8) 
 

scepticus

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #25 on: July 20, 2019, 04:49:05 PM »
I prefer creative debt financing!  8)

 ;D ;D ;D
 

thomasleor

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #26 on: July 21, 2019, 08:29:12 AM »
I prefer creative debt financing!  8)

So does the US Federal Reserve (encouraging wall street to implement it). Do you think the US economy, or Britains for that matter, is in a good position long term wise?

Going beyond your cheap and self-destructive betting scheme, that is amateurishly naive at best, with no long term income stability, borrowing money in order to aquire an asset and using it as financial leverage (which is debt financing), is a very dangerous game, and a well known gambling game on wall street performed on the expense AND RISK of the ordinary people in any given country. The implosion of Bear Stearns, Leehman Brothers and the recent crumbling of Deutche Bank is but few examples on this flawed mind set.  More is to come of course.

 What might not stand clear to you presently, but soon enough, once you have applied your "debt financing" game over a specific time in the extremely volatile dominion of variance, will one day attack you when you least expect it,  wipe out your entire BR and if I know you right by now, savings, once you frantically will try to win back what you lost.

For those who love to live dangerously, once the eyes of this demon are seen, it is way too late to act. It might not happen in one session, but in a number of consecutive ones.

If you instead considered "Equity financing" you might actually make it, short term wise that is.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2019, 09:17:58 AM by thomasleor »
 
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thomasleor

Re: Comparing Progressions: Up As You Lose, Flat Bet, and Up As You Win
« Reply #27 on: July 21, 2019, 09:39:38 AM »
edit bump