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Author Topic: Hits v Repeaters  (Read 3444 times)

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sam41

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #75 on: July 11, 2018, 11:03:34 PM »
So just to double check, what wagering plan are you using that won 50 times? Because I am down again today doing my thing. I'm just not getting enough back to back wins so bankroll fluctuates but gradually goes down. It's weird that it worked so well for quite a while but now 2 days running it's not. Today was a good mixture of repeats and newbies so I was flipping but it didn't work for me, too much alternating between the 2 when I'm betting the other.
 

Mako

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #76 on: July 12, 2018, 07:26:36 PM »
Sam: I decided at the start to try a basic martingale to get a feel for how often high streaks occur within the post-18 uniques spins, and after a few sessions initially locked in on a 6-level stoploss after getting a feel for it.  So 1-2-4-8-16-32-LOSE. 

I figured that at roughly -1000u on the downside and an avg unit win of say 65u on the upside, I'd want to "win" 20 times for every stoploss out.  I expected to have to change that progression, and still do, but here's where it stands now (mostly RX sessions and a single live casino visit last week):

66 wins, +4275u
1 loss, -1077u
NET: +3195u

I finally had the first stoploss yesterday, but I was expecting it a bit to be honest because I'd had 2 prior "max" level spins, both of which had won, so I'm starting to see that a max level spin is going to occur around once every 20 or so sessions. The sample size is too small to really determine anything, but it's big enough to show that a basic martingale progression isn't going to unlock any significant earnings.  It will likely be profitable, but I'm not sure to what degree.  Will continue testing.

One thing I'm also doing the past 15 sessions is applying a Baccarat style bet selection to it just to see if it can reduce the exposure to a long streak, by changing the engagement to any 2-streak prior. Meaning if it hits two no-hit numbers in a row then I'll engage for 1u on the repeaters. If it hits two repeaters in a row then I'll engage for 1u on the no hits. 

This way it would take an 8-streak within the 13 or so total spins between 24 and 37 to hit the final martingale level and trigger the stoploss.  We'll see how it goes, will continue with both versions the rest of the week, try to get to 100x runs for each.

 

sam41

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #77 on: July 13, 2018, 10:54:59 PM »
See that's too much of a loss for me should it happen. I'm leaning away from this now sadly.

However, I might have something else. It occurred to me that based on the two thirds stat we expect to see (12 repeats and 24 numbers in 36 spins, approximately) would we also not see 24 splits appear from 36 spins? Or better, 12 splits from 18 spins.

Upon looking at some data, this seems to be largely the case. So can we take advantage?

Let's say we split it from left to right on the table. So 1-4, 2-5, 3-6 etc. Up to 33-36. Ignore 0. We wait for 5 unique splits to appear then put 1 unit on those 5 splits.

If we lose we put 6 units on the 6 splits we now have. Then 7. We will need to use progression as the number of units increases. However from what I've seen, it's rare not to get a hit by the 8th spin. But more wins will come in the closer to 18 spins you get. Quite often you have 11 splits after 17 spins so can stop there. You should have won 6 times, hopefully without having had to progress past 2 units.

You could start betting later too, after 6 splits show, but I noticed quite often a win comes in after 5 uniques.

I did see one run of 10 unique splits to open and a zero so no win until spin 12. That could hurt the bankroll if processing each time. But then came 5 of 6 wins so it would have at least mostly recovered even if you stopped progressing. That's a bad run but you would feel confident the next set would do better so over time it would be profitable.

What do others think? Can anyone run tests?

 
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sam41

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #78 on: July 13, 2018, 11:30:59 PM »
Just seen a sequence where 11 unique splits showed! If we began betting after 5 it would be awful. So, what if we only increase units on wins? That way we stick on 1 unit through our 6 spin losing streak, going down 45 units (5+6+7+8+9+10) then we bet 11 but win 18 so Nowwe are -38.

We go to 2 units and a win gets us 14 units back, we are -24. Now we go to 3 units and a win brings us back to -3. We can now reduce back to either 1 or 2 units.

So this way we're not out of it even when a bad run comes. This one levelled out with 4 repeats in a row but then 3 more new ones so you would probably finish down. But I'd probably just keep going after this and remove the splits that appeared over 18 spins ago. In this case SIX wins in a row would have followed. So I think you get good balance, probably because we know within all this there are 12, 13 numbers that won't hit at all so repeats have to happen. And we are splitting so we are covering the recent numbers but also some new ones.

Good huh? :-)
 

GIAJJENNO

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #79 on: July 14, 2018, 07:25:48 AM »
Good idea Sam, must try it.

But in the version2, when we increase bet only after the wins, I would have a little fear ftom the LWLWLWLWOR LLWWWLLWLLWWLLWW sequence. I dont know, maybe you, what is the hitrate percantage?
 

Sputnik

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #80 on: July 14, 2018, 09:48:36 AM »


Maybe if you look at the distribution using binomial probability you can find something.
One split has 50% likelihood to hit within twelve attempts.

Then you can watch singles and series and watch hot and cold.
But you would need to be an even money expert to read and understand variance to know how and when to take advantage.

Cheers

 
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sam41

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #81 on: July 14, 2018, 09:53:03 AM »
Well you only increase if youre not in a new high profit after a win. LWLW would still be returning a profit especially early on when only betting on 6 or 7 splits. I think youdy only do up as you win if you'd been flat betting on several losses in a row. But then you expect at least a few wins to come.

It probably can still lose but it would need to be a sequence that has a high number of splits and few consecutive repeats. I think if that happened it would be worth playing on beyond 18 spins and crossing off splits that drop out of the last 18 spins. Repeats have to come eventually! It's just how we manage the bankroll to that point.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 09:54:47 AM by sam41 »
 

ice789

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #82 on: July 14, 2018, 09:55:35 AM »

newbielink:http://www.uxsoftware.com/roulette/systems/docs/HOLLY.pdf [nonactive]

FREE RX-CODE newbielink:http://www.uxsoftware.com/roulette/systems/v20/Holly_Grail_System.dgt [nonactive]

EDIT MY VERSION PLAY d'alembert ONLY IF PROFIT RESET

PLS CHECK MAX DRAWDOWN ???

system "Holly Grail System V.ICE789"
{
    V.C.M. HOLY GRAIL SYSTEM

    RX-ed by UX Software
}
method "main"
begin
    While Starting a New Session
    begin
        put 9999999 to record "Martingale Max" data

        group
        begin
            Display "Holly Grail Roulette System
            "

            Input Dropdown "Enter Type of Progression betting
                    2:= D'Alembert
                    3:= Martingale" to record "Progression Type" data

            Input Data "If Martingale, enter Maximum Martingale Bet
                        (needed for Casino Maximum)" to record "Martingale Max" data
        end

        Call "Init"

    end

    While on Each Spin
    begin
        if spin count >=9999999999 then
        begin
            Display "Spin count 65 reached.

                    System will Stop"

            Stop Session
            Exit
        end

        Copy last number to record "last number" layout

        call "Record hit"
        Call "Transfer hits"

        if record "last number" layout not found in record "track 18" layout
        begin
            if flag "ready to bet" is true
            and flag "Have bet" is true
            begin
                Add 1 to record "lost" data
                Add 1 to record "total lost" data

                if record "Progression Type" data = 3 then
                begin
                    Multiply 2 to record "progression" data

                    if record "progression" data > record "Martingale Max" data
                    begin
                        Display "You have reached the Martingale Maximum

                                System will Stop"

                        Stop Session
                        Exit
                    end
                end

                if record "Progression Type" data = 2 then
                begin
                    Add 1 to record "progression" data
                end

                if record "lost" data > 999999999
                begin
                    Display "You have lost 7 times in a row.

                             System will Stop"

                    Stop Session
                    Exit
                end

                call "Remove oldest hit"
            end

            Track Last number for 18 times to record "track 18" layout

            if record "track 18" layout count = 18
            begin
                set flag "ready to bet" to true
            end
        end
        else
        begin
            if flag "ready to bet" is true
            and record "wait count" data = 1
            and flag "Have bet" is true
            begin
                Put 0 on record "lost" data
                Add 1 to record "total win" data

                if record "Progression Type" data = 2 then
                begin
                    Subtract 1 to record "progression" data
                end

                if record "Progression Type" data = 3 then
                begin
                    Put 1 to record "progression" data
                end

                if record "progression" data <=0
                begin
                    Put 1 on record "progression" data
                end
            end
        end

        if flag "ready to bet" is true
        and record "wait count" data = 1
        begin
            put 100% of record "total win" data to record "result" data
            Subtract 100% of record "total lost" data to record "result" data

            if record "result" data > =9999999999 then
            begin
                Display "You won 7 times more that you lost.

                         System will Stop"

                Stop Session
                Exit
            end

            Call "Place Bets"
        end

        if record "wait count" data = 0
        and flag "ready to bet" is true
        begin
            put 1 on record "wait count" data
        end
    end
end

method "Place Bets"
begin
    put 100% of record "progression" data to record "track 18" layout list
    set flag "Have bet" to true
end

method "Record hit"
begin
    put 1 on record "numbers" layout index

    Loop until record "numbers" Layout index > record "numbers" Layout count
    begin
        if record "last number" Layout = record "numbers" Layout
        begin
            put 100% of record "numbers" Layout index to record "numbers" data index
            Add 1 to record "numbers" data
            return
        end

        Add 1 to record "numbers" Layout index
    end
end

method "Transfer hits"
begin
    put 1 on record "track 18" layout index

    Loop until record "track 18" Layout index > record "track 18" Layout count
    begin
        put 1 on record "numbers" layout index

        Loop until record "numbers" Layout index > record "numbers" Layout count
        begin
            if record "numbers" Layout = record "track 18" Layout
            begin
                put 100% of record "numbers" Layout index to record "numbers" data index
                put 100% of record "track 18" Layout index to record "track 18" data index
                put 100% of record "numbers" data to record "track 18" data
            end

            Add 1 to record "numbers" Layout index

        end

        Add 1 to record "track 18" Layout index
    end
end

method "Remove oldest hit"
begin
    put 1 on record "track 18" data index
    clear record "temp" layout
    clear record "temp" data
    set flag "found" to false

    put 1 on record "temp" data index

    Loop until record "track 18" data index > record "track 18" data count
    begin
        if record "track 18" data = 1
        begin
            if flag "found" is false
            begin
                put 0 on record "track 18" data
                set flag "found" to true
            end
        end

        if record "track 18" data not = 0
        begin
            put 100% of record "track 18" data to record "temp" data
            put 100% of record "track 18" Data index to record "track 18" Layout index
            put 100% of record "temp" data index to record "temp" layout index
            copy record "track 18" layout to record "temp" layout
            Add 1 to record "temp" data index
        end

        Add 1 to record "track 18" data index
    end

    Duplicate record "temp" to record "track 18"
end

method "Init"
begin
    copy list [number 00, number 0, number 1, number 2, number 3,number 4,number 5,number 6,
    number 7,number 8,number 9,number 10,number 11,number 12,number 13,number 14,
    number 15,number 16,number 17,number 18,number 19,number 20,number 21,number 22,
    number 23,number 24,number 25,number 26,number 27,number 28,number 29,number 30,
    number 31,number 32,number 33,number 34,number 35,number 36] to record"numbers"layout

    clear record "numbers" data
    put 0 on record "wait count" data
    set flag "ready to bet" to false
    put 1 on record "progression" data
    put 0 on record "total lost" data
    put 0 on record "total win" data
    set flag "won" to false
    set flag "Have bet" to false

    Reset Spin Count
end

 

ice789

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #83 on: July 14, 2018, 10:10:47 AM »
PLS HELP ME

FOR EDIT FOR RESET AFTER PROFIT NO POP UP

I WANT TEST RUN LONG TIME AND I WANT ADD ANY PROGRESSION

FOR SAVE MAX DRAWDOWN
« Last Edit: July 14, 2018, 10:13:30 AM by ice789 »
 

GIAJJENNO

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #84 on: July 14, 2018, 10:14:39 AM »
Sorry for my stupid question, but I downloaded the roulette xtreme, and I had aeound 20x 360 minute to try it. It is very good, long time, but today I cross out the last limit too.

Now I had to buy it, or has somebody free codes, or on the internet can I find? Not the money, the 40 euro really worth this program, nice, I liked it, just a question, if not must, I not spend money :)

Thanks

Giajjenno
 

sam41

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #85 on: July 14, 2018, 10:36:34 AM »
I don't quite get it, Ice. Might be how your post reads on my phone but it's not clear to me. I see you split on consecutive numbers, I go left to right. Perhaps it doesn't really matter though. But you can't split say, 3 and 4 so need to use 2 smaller chips.

I just examined my new method on 3 live playtech wheels and would have smashed all 3 of them! What seems clear though is that if 0 appears it's worth placing a chip on that each time, also if you're up to about 8 or 9 chips being placed it's also worth covering 0 then too.

This is going to be one of those where you only see how it can lose when it actually happens I think. Right now it's hard to see how it can, as long as you have enough bank.
 

ice789

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #86 on: July 14, 2018, 10:41:48 AM »
I THINK BET SESSION HAVE LOSE HAVE WIN AVERAGE WIN ?

OR WIN EVERY SESSION MAX DRAWDOWN ?

I WANT TEST LONG RUN
 

sam41

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #87 on: July 15, 2018, 02:03:12 PM »
Just tried playing the split repeaters, it worked quite well but I think it needs a better wagering plan for when losing runs occur. Martingale is too risky and flat betting for 4 or 5 losses in a row is hard to recover from. You could increase by 1 unit each time but that can still be hard to recover.

One adjustment I have made is I wait for 8 uniques then join the game. This means over the next 10 spins we expect 6 repeats and 4 more new pairs. The problem still arises if the new ones come right away or you get 4 or 5 more in a row. It's unlikely but possible.

Flat betting is generally considered best, most experts frown on any system that involves progression. Perhaps it just has to be more of a grind. At least if you get a long run of new pairs, a bunch of repeats are going to follow. But if you're up to 12 or 13 pairs by then, your return on each spin is less than it would have been when on 8 or 9 pairs.

My experience has been you do need to keep betting on the further back pairs as they often hit, so keeping it to the last 8 I don't think will work consistently.

Still, I finished up 36 units to the good so it's a good start.
 

sam41

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Re: Hits v Repeaters
« Reply #88 on: July 15, 2018, 03:17:07 PM »
Just won 35 units with 4 out of 4 hits. Got 9 unique numbers, (purely as I wasn't ready in time to bet after 8 but it worked out for me!) won the first couple of bets then sat out. A new one came in, then I re-bet and won. Then I sat out what would have been 3 more wins in a row, but oh well. So at this point I decided to flip it and bet on all the pairs yet to appear as we had 6 repeats already in 16 spins and only 10 pairs appearing. We have 2 spins left so a good chance at least one will be a newbie. And indeed it was on the next spin so I stopped there.

This was a pretty 'normal' cycle of 18 spins I think. Technically if I'd been ready in time I would have lost the first bet on 8 uniques but I'd still be nicely up overall with the 4 wins that followed. You do have to use your initiative a little bit with this and look at what's appearing, and decide when to bet or not.