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Author Topic: Player edge origins.  (Read 3699 times)

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kav

Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2017, 10:04:50 AM »
Thanks, this seems like a great program, but the learning curve should be steep...
 

Bayes

Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2017, 12:16:45 PM »
Kav, it's the easiest you'll find. The alternatives are spreadsheets which are clunky or learning some programming language. Of course you have to be able to understand the various analyses and interpret the results of the tests, but that's just statistics. Understanding the basic concepts is more important than being able to do the maths. These days it's all done on computer.
 

Bayes

Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2017, 12:26:52 PM »
To illustrate how these differences can affect your result, make a simple test. Collect 5-600 spins and simulate betting on 5 best numbers, do the same thing for 5 worst ones...  compare results.

If by 'best' numbers you meant the biased numbers then of course the results will be better, but betting on the 'hot' numbers alone isn't good enough (but I'm sure you know that).

It seems that the first test results were a fluke. Further results using the same method of selecting numbers didn't show such a clear difference, and sometime the coldest numbers gave the best results.

If anyone's interested, I've attached the program which runs from a windows console (command line). You need to create a file called 'spins.txt' with one spin per line. There should be at least 650 spins in the file. Make sure this is in the same folder as the program then type 'hotvscold.exe' and a text file called 'results.txt' will be written to the same folder.
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2017, 03:12:41 PM »
Bayes, the idea of the exercise was to illustrate difference in betting best numbers versus worse numbers. It's not a prediction model. If it would be that easy, everyone would win in this game.
 

Bayes

Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2017, 03:20:52 PM »
Well of course the best numbers are going to do better than the worst numbers, by definition, so I wasn't sure what your point was.

Quote
It's not a prediction model.

Plenty of people seem to think that betting on hot numbers is superior to betting on cold numbers, but if the wheel is random it makes no difference.
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Player edge origins.
« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2017, 04:08:37 PM »
Well of course the best numbers are going to do better than the worst numbers, by definition, so I wasn't sure what your point was.

Quote
It's not a prediction model.

Plenty of people seem to think that betting on hot numbers is superior to betting on cold numbers, but if the wheel is random it makes no difference.
The point is always the same. Divert atention of people from chasing tails to what really matters. Many feel that they can choose random groups of numbers ( like ES) and still produce positive result on long run with progressions or strategoes.   They simply do not realise ( no actual expirience) what is playing with edge to players favor.
  Exercise was to get a feel for what it can be, if everything done properly.