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Author Topic: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer  (Read 14383 times)

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Real

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #15 on: August 20, 2014, 03:23:20 AM »
It's important that people realize that a progression and money management can not turn a losing system into a winning one, and that it will have no effect on the house edge.
 

albalaha

Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #16 on: August 20, 2014, 04:48:29 AM »
In a random small session, it is not just house edge that kills people but many other factors too, foremost is the variance. Even a primary level player can win 1 unit with guarantee anywhere in 47 wins vs 53 losses but randomness brings variance and variance can make it as ugly as 30 Wins vs 70 losses with wins and losses scattered so badly that no progression(positive or negative) can bring the player out of the trench, for sure.
                                     So, Variance is the real killer and house edge is its assistant. House edge alone can kill flat bets only, in absence of variance.
 

Real

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #17 on: August 20, 2014, 06:00:40 PM »
Variance is a double edged sword.  Variance is what we call "good luck" when it works for us, and "bad luck" when it works against us.
« Last Edit: August 20, 2014, 06:02:15 PM by Real »
 

albalaha

Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #18 on: August 20, 2014, 07:04:20 PM »
But it causes the greatest losses and uncertainty. More than the dreaded house edge. Do you agree?
 

Real

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #19 on: August 20, 2014, 09:07:56 PM »
Quote
But it causes the greatest losses and uncertainty. More than the dreaded house edge. Do you agree?-Albalaha

No, it does not.

After enough spins, it's the house edge that actually consumes the largest portion of the players bankroll, not variance.

Here's proof.  In this example, the player plays, off and on, for 10k spins, betting only one unit per spin, just  to keep it simple, on the red/black.

Here's the effect of the variance:  (+ or -) 3 x (square root of 10k x 1) = The player can expect to be somewhere in between losing 300 units or winning 300 units, most of the time.  (This is very crudely accounting for a three standard deviation fluctuation).

Here's the effect of the house edge: The house edge has a negative expectation of 5.26%.  The expected loss from the house edge would be -5.26% x (10k) x (1) = - 526 units.

Again the results are: 

Variance: -300 units to +300 units.

House edge:  -526 units

As you can see, after enough trials, the house edge becomes the largest factor as to why the player will lose.  Even a three standard deviation win is not enough variance to overcome the house edge.  Furthermore, I doubt that anyone would consider 10,000 spins as  being "in the long run".

Xander/Real
« Last Edit: August 20, 2014, 09:17:07 PM by Real »
 

albalaha

Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2014, 03:28:58 AM »
In long run, it is off course the house edge but in short small sessions it is mainly variance. You give me 45 hits of an EC in any scatter you feel like, in 100 spins. House edge and a slight negative variance both will be there in 45/100 but it can be beaten with 1 unit of profit but if it is 35/100 or 30/100, it maybe impossible to earn 1 unit in a variety of scatter and clusters of wins and losses.
                      So, in small playable session, it is mainly down to positive or negative variance to win or lose and not the house edge. A very naive player can lose in 100 spins, even with 55/100, if he is not prudent enough to not to use martingale, fibonacci or labouchere kind of deadly progressions that can finish the bankroll in a short successive run of losses. Again, the reason of loss of that player will not be house edge but variance.  In long run, the tilt of house edge will leave no room for coincidences and will bring in horrible variance at some point of time to kill the player.
 

Real

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2014, 03:54:39 AM »
Small play sessions add up.  Within a year, an avid gambler will find that the house edge is the biggest problem, not variance.

I suspect we both agree.

By the way, I like your first post regarding Martin Blakey's system.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2014, 05:09:47 AM by Real »
 

albalaha

Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2014, 04:13:33 AM »
I can also prove my point. Give me any small session upto 100 spins with any bet that is lagging behind only upto its house edge and there is no negative variance. I will beat that with 1 unit profit, for sure within table limits.
 

Tollens

Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #23 on: September 04, 2014, 07:56:48 AM »
I ran a million spins

newbielink:http://www.loothog.com/Systems/GapTest.php [nonactive]

 
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kav

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Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #24 on: September 04, 2014, 08:32:49 AM »
Thank you very much Tollens.
Great info!
 

dobbelsteen

Re: How Long Will It Go Without Hitting? Progression Designer
« Reply #25 on: September 18, 2014, 03:48:05 PM »
Every 12 random numbers are together  a dozen. The 2/3-rule tels us that on every streak of 36 spins 12 numbers has not fallen. These 12 numbers are a random dozen. Every dozen has thiat chance. Wager on these numbers is very lucky.
Between these 12 numhers there are also the 4 cold numbers.Be carefully!!!