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Author Topic: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?  (Read 5436 times)

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MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #60 on: August 24, 2017, 09:42:34 AM »
vb2 gives linearity on correct prediction in 2-3 different revs.
Check it IF you can.
Duncan, l understand religion of vb2, l used to be follower as well ;).
    Reality is a bit different. The problem is that vb2 do not offer real algorithm of adjustment for deferent timings ball may take ( decceleration) , besides that is simply not practical, not only because of decceleration , but because of restriction in rotor speeds and cases where you can not directly see the ball at the end of the time ( it can happen to be on half wheel you didn't have visibility).
   I will tell you more, error of vb2 of 15 pokets in reality is 18. And it's for a ball only!!! You need huge advantage on offer to overcome it. This error is due to the ball going next posible hit place being next diamond on most of the cases. Vb2 predicts in a fixed ball speed between revolutions and wich one was " correct" you can gess only, but you need to gess right to adjust properly, wich with vb2 you simply can not... at least not the way it was explained by forester. His sudjestion of moving place of starting time is a cretinism. You can not do it on titled wheel without distortion of ball timings. Only vb where you should move a place of " revolution identification" is jafco one, it's done to move "point set" or exact revolution timing target, if you prefer it this way.
    I'm out now can't perform test, but vb2 results for these timings will be similar to traditional vb, just the zone will be a bit wider and edge distrebuted to cover hole between positive zones.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #61 on: August 24, 2017, 10:14:51 AM »
What is the largeness of an AP wager? Is there a ratio between the hit percentage and the largeness of the wager?
 

Bebediktus

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #62 on: August 24, 2017, 10:27:35 AM »
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AP players love to speak and write about their advantage. No AP player can explain his advantage.
I read they claim an advantage up to 30%.
Do they mean;
From here starts all your problems - you not know what means advantage and what means %....

Advantage in 30% means that if you made  bets in total sum of 1000$ then after that you must have 1300$ in front of you.
Quote
As  a system player i am the meaning that a profit of 1 a 2% of the total bets is realistic.
For VB player for bias player it is realistic, but not for system player which all bets do having  minus 2.7% . You learned mathematic - must understand if always add -2.7% - can  get positive number....But you can think as you want for me that is without difference - even better, that are such peoples...  :)

When we play we never know which advantage exact we have. We can only calculate that after game . But if we calculate advantage week , month or year and it is about in some stable value , we can say that we usually have such advantage. If i will count all mine plays in last 10 years , I maybe will get number  around 4%, but i played also against wheels where i had 30% and even 70% and that was not few bets but maybe several days or even weeks.

In VB play advantage depends on many factors - say it depends on air temperature, or on air pressure as usually love say some players. But that is not right because really advantage depends on ball scatering  and to it do effect that temperature or presure. So almoust all depends on scatering - all other maybe have some efect but not such which can drastically all change....
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #63 on: August 24, 2017, 10:36:26 AM »
What is the largeness of an AP wager? Is there a ratio between the hit percentage and the largeness of the wager?
It's always a trade off between posible variance and return per let's say hour. If you bet 1 number only,  you may have super edges... 100nds% , but in reality you still may not realise a profit today...
    Let's see other case, you may be betting half wheel, but advantage is 10 % or less... ( not always, sometimes more) , you will make money today, but not much.
    Generally you will be better to bet something between 4 and 9 numbers in total, unless you really need to cover entire sector... 9 is more or less optimal for general cases.
 

dobbelsteen

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #64 on: August 24, 2017, 10:52:50 AM »
Bebedictus you have not studied DTOP.A system  gives a loss after more spins than DTOP.A dozen or a 12 number bet has a DTOP of about 150 spins. A loss of 2,7% is reached after about 250 spins. A system player plays normally smaller sessions. Loss and win are unpredictable. Only with a strategy and hit and run a profit of 1 a 2 % is realistic . 2,7% loss is only valid for long run sessions.
 

Duncan

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #65 on: August 24, 2017, 11:10:26 AM »
"""""""""""" cases where you can not directly see the ball at the end of the time ( it can happen to be on half wheel you didn't have visibility). """"""

Only by this statement its obvious that you don t even know the wheel number order.

You do NOT need  to change point where you apply the 1,2secs time.... the indication number after the time of VB2 will be always in visible place and all you have to do is add or minus the pockets according to rotor speeds.

Its seems clearly that your understanding in Vb2 is 0.

So you can t comment on something u can t understand.

I am tired speaking with you.
Update your knowledge correctly ( and your skills) and then come and talk to me.
Until then practice and read.
 

Duncan

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #66 on: August 24, 2017, 11:15:22 AM »
LoL I am still laughing with the BLIND position you said !!!!!!!!!!!
So you also have problem with the traditional VB ... because if the prediction must be taken from 6 ocklock on the wheel, what will u do ! LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL

Man... you don t even know the basics.

get serious and don t mentuon again that u are an Aper.
Respect the Apers and don t ruin their image.

In traditional VB or VB2 or anything we always take prediction from 12 ocklock ( enough visible for u??) and we are adding or reducing pockets in our head.

Caleb is doing the same thing.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2017, 11:18:31 AM by Duncan »
 

Bebediktus

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #67 on: August 24, 2017, 11:22:21 AM »
Quote
You do NOT need  to change point where you apply the 1,2secs time.

OK i think in discussions about VB2 can participate only members of Forester forum, so maybe easier is to write nicks in that forum and all will be clear who is who.
And one more simple task - which must be wheel speed that we can apply 1.2sec as reference time ? VB2 starts from understanding this.If ou will gave answer fast, then you maybe understand this method   :)
« Last Edit: August 24, 2017, 11:24:09 AM by Bebediktus »
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #68 on: August 24, 2017, 11:25:15 AM »
Duncan, it's all very simple, l got a Skype and a wheel, my camera and Internet connection is very good. My wheel is very easy , as you say, curently it's clearly 2 pin game that you obviously have no problems to beat, right?
    So why wouldn't you add me on a Skype and show your great skill in real time? Because l personally think that your tolk if as far away from reality as it can be. You do not even need to predict final number( you couldn't be bothered to collect or use the data) , strike would do just fine. Or your great skill is so great that can not be demonstrated to simple fellow like me, you just prefere to share your wisdom on a publick forum without a need to back up anything?
    I gess the one who will be laughing it's not you after all...
 

scepticus

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #69 on: August 24, 2017, 11:26:03 AM »

Isn't jafco's method dependent on using a computer ? Does he not sell a pre-programmed computer ? If so then you cannot compare his method with the AP in this forum - other than the observations . I have heard about people profiting with AP when using a computer but none where they have won without using a computer. Strange that .
 

Duncan

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #70 on: August 24, 2017, 11:31:47 AM »
Blind position !!!!!!!!!!! LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #71 on: August 24, 2017, 11:34:42 AM »
Sceps, even jafco himself predicts with his computer better then without it. But it's only due to processing timings better ability of computer. His computer''s algorithm is exactly the same as for his vb. You can look to it as a calculator based on microcontroller to count pokets better.
   Computer in general used because people get tired, but computer doesn't,  so it permits to play for longer without "human erro"r mistakes.
   My computer, for example , do not even predict, it just control stability of variables needed for a prediction( adjustment).
 

Duncan

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #72 on: August 24, 2017, 11:41:12 AM »
Mr Perfect are you the old member Lucky Strike in VLS?
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #73 on: August 24, 2017, 11:43:39 AM »
Blind position !!!!!!!!!!! LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL
Well, Duncan,  it's a problem for me, forester or anyone who wanna apply vb2, looks like this problem of vb2 make your laugh,  unfortunately, you are unable to argument your laugh or answer Bebedictus simple question about correct speed of wheel for 1.2 second mentioned by yourself. I can only add that you do not know wich deceleration is assumed for this exact time ( mentioned by you ) or on wich wheels it would/ wouldn't be upliable. 
    It just makes me belive that your laugh grounded on your brain desability to keep up with the task. Am l wrong? It's my time to laugh,  but in my case l do it senserely.  Hahahahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahah
 

MrPerfect.

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Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
« Reply #74 on: August 24, 2017, 11:45:25 AM »
Mr Perfect are you the old member Lucky Strike in VLS?
no. Lucky is sputnik here. My login was sergiy on myroulette ,  after sergiy was banned l took name of Sith. What is yours ? ;)     l never posted on vlc
« Last Edit: August 24, 2017, 11:48:42 AM by MrPerfect. »