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91
Questions and Answers / Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Last post by scepticus on August 08, 2019, 10:22:23 AM »
Much simpler to pick a set of 3 ECs and bet that it WILL NOT  happen because it has only ( ? ) a 1 in 8 chance.  It could be used in conjunction with a Dozen or Column for instance .
92
Gambling Philosophy / Re: The Hidden House Edge In Baccarat
« Last post by GIAJJENNO on August 08, 2019, 10:20:21 AM »

I don't recommend that anyone play Baccarat.

Thats why you didnt get any answer in this thread.
93
Sports Betting / Re: Hedge your gambling with sport service
« Last post by scepticus on August 08, 2019, 10:17:19 AM »
You are prepared to pay for Tips . I would rather pay for lots of Stats that I could juggle about with to make my own picks
.  More "staisfaction "  !  ;D
94
Questions and Answers / Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Last post by Joe on August 08, 2019, 09:18:49 AM »
scep, what you're suggesting is more about the binomial model because it's defined in terms of binary outcomes : win/loss, success/failure etc. The uniform distribution is about how the set of outcomes, eg. dozen 1, dozen 2, dozen 3 is behaving as a group. The only set of outcomes which truly fits the discrete uniform are the single numbers 0-36, but you can use it on other groups as long as you accept the small error. And also, it wouldn't be appropriate to use it on all 6 even chances because they are not mutually exclusive (eg. red and odd together don't form a uniform distribution because they aren't mutually exclusive; only red and black, odd and even, high and low are).

You could use it on compound bets though. eg. if you take the patterns of 3 on an even chance there are 8 mutually exclusive outcomes which all have the same probability (1/8, ignoring zero):

1 RRR
2 RRB
3 RBR
4 RBB
5 BRR
6 BRB
7 BBR
8 BBB

So if you record outcomes in sets of 3 using the codes 1-8 you can calculate the z-score for all the sets taken as a group.
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Sports Betting / Re: Hedge your gambling with sport service
« Last post by Robbert on August 08, 2019, 09:01:00 AM »
Bought the ultimate package.. no picks??

How frequent do they put the picks online?
96
Sports Betting / Re: Hedge your gambling with sport service
« Last post by scepticus on August 08, 2019, 07:43:50 AM »
We are agreed that the profit is not the EDge .
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Sports Betting / Re: Hedge your gambling with sport service
« Last post by Sputnik on August 08, 2019, 06:58:02 AM »


I think you missunderstand ...

Valubetting is the way you find value in judge each bet to have better chanse then 50/50
When you can pick winner above 50% and continue doing so in the long run - then you have a positive expectaion that is the same as edge.

And ROI is not just strike ratio or % of winnings - it also indicate that you can value each pick in the long run over 50% and have a long term edge - that is how is done with sports.

If you can not pick better picks then 50% flat betting for 1000 placed bets or more you don't have a EDGE.

Process is same for advantage play - assume i play VB and pick 18 numbers.
Then if i can not predict that the ball will land on does 18 numbers before ball landed more then 50%
Then i dont have an edge over the casino - but if i can predict more then 50% for example 55% i have a edge over the casino - same process.

Cheers
98
Gambling Philosophy / Re: The Hidden House Edge In Baccarat
« Last post by Third on August 08, 2019, 04:46:23 AM »
Ok my final update on the game of Baccarat.  I am going to harsh the mellow here so if you are a hard core baccarat fan, this is your opportunity to click away...  *queue jeopardy music*


1) Banker Commission -- This is a massive ripoff, destroying the ability to recover properly after a negative variance swing.  When your chop wins turn into losses, you understand very quickly how absolutely horrible this is.

2) Player -- Banker is so heavily skewed toward hitting, there is a massive risk here of running into worse sequences than would normally be seen in an EC game -- its far worse than roulette in fact and roulette has a .027 HE!

So to put it simply and without further ado, I think Baccarat is a ripoff game that is packaged as the ideal gambler's solution for EC chances but nobody ever discusses the above issues; I had to discover them for myself.

I don't recommend that anyone play Baccarat.

99
Sports Betting / Re: Hedge your gambling with sport service
« Last post by scepticus on August 07, 2019, 10:40:22 PM »
The profit is not " THe EDge " Sputnik.   The EDge is a mathematically  calculated  advantage to the Bettor  based on an assumption  BEFOREHAND not after using hindsight . The Edge in roulette is the casino's  mathematically calculated advantage for each spin..

" The Kelly" - which few actually bet - is not based on the VALUE of the bet but it's perceivd Edge,

 No Edge - No Bet . 
100
Sports Betting / Re: Hedge your gambling with sport service
« Last post by Sputnik on August 07, 2019, 09:33:29 PM »


Ron William has 115% ROI that is 15% Edge
With 10 Euro stake you profit 335 Euro a mounth - average during a whole year.
Fee 40 Euro with mounthly subscription - that is 300 Euro profit.

Micheal has 110% ROI that is 10% Edge
With 10 Euro stake you profit 100 Euro a mounth - average during a whole year.
Fee 20 Euro with monthly subscription - that is 80 Euro profit

Marketbeaters 107% ROI that is 7% Edge
With 10 Euro stake you profit 150 to 250 Euro a mounth - average based upon 200 placed bets.
Fee 30 Euro with montly subscription - that is 120 to 220 Euro profit

The Kelly Staking is based upon each selections value, high value high stake, medium value medium stake, low value low stake using a scale from 1 to 10.
Gaming-Guru and Greyhound using that kind of staking.

Cheers
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