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21
Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by scepticus on Yesterday at 05:44:08 PM »
Fiben7

I like your humour ! This is a “ high-end professional roulette forum” ?   ;D

Don’t get me wrong when I  misunderstand  some of your posts.  I am trying to get the hang of what you are about .
Some of it just does not seem to make sense .

Your main approach seems to be “ reversion to the mean  “ as in your post about a  Rolling 37 .  This does not make much sense as the bulk of  the previous 36 must contain some “ winners “   so  the next number won’t have much effect on the next 37 - and so on.  Much better , I think , to analyse 36 spin cycles . I have been dong that since the beginning of the year in actual play with what was my usual “ Hit and Run “ method and it still  shows profit .  ( even on  one session online  where I could not get my deposit back unless I played . I thought it’s terms unfair so didn’t want to play ) 

If you now have  sufficient data for back testing why do you need more ?  If you method is valid it  will still be valid no matter how many further spins you make. If it fails after many more spins then your method is not valid. It is the  idea that will win  -  or lose. The statistics will only verify that  your idea is right  or wrong .
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Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by fiben7 on Yesterday at 04:52:38 PM »
dear scepticus, some misunderstanding here.

I have enough data to start thinking of and backtesting systems and strategies (and as already said, there are some nicely stable and positive as more data are added); I have an actual approach and I have found something usefu - so please do not be disappointed -

though I do not believe I have enough data to come on such a high-end professional roulette forum and start shouting I have found the HG! This could happen say  after 10 years of frequently playing the same system and winning across wheels and across casinos! Not at that stage yet :D

My professional humbleness does not allow to make such claims even if the current system/strategy I am playing in the Athens casino is providing very good returns and low drawdowns consistently.

I have found something very useful in my approach as you say. I discuss the approach so that I communicate it with you and I get constructive feedback. I am not giving the exact details of my best system (and next 2 ones close) though I am giving much info I think for someone to work on the basics of the system and get his version running.

thanks for the feedback scepticus!
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Casino Lounge / Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Last post by scepticus on Yesterday at 04:29:17 PM »
THANK you Astutillo
Reality dawns !  ;D
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Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by scepticus on Yesterday at 04:24:47 PM »
Nope, Fiben7, nope. What  you laid out was a possible approach. Not an actual approach.

"My two cents here, how about a trend/mean reversion in EC or Dozens (that may not a great system itself in the longterm but has its nice winning periods) that is combined with a trend/mean reversion in VOT (that may not a great system itself in the longterm but has its nice winning periods) in a single system that minimises the chips bet and maximises payout?"

Ypu said you had insufficient data for proper analys yet also said.
"Working out the combinations and systems performance over time on enough spins data, some interesting graphs arise! "
That is a pointless  phrase  when we realise that  when you have sufficient data on anything some interesting graphs arise . The problem is determining whether we  can find somethoing useful in them . You have not done so yet . Hence my disappointment .
As for using  " virtual bets " .  Come on , Get Real !
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Casino Lounge / Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Last post by Astutillo on Yesterday at 04:12:34 PM »
Interesting topic.
Thanks guys.

It's nice to see two seasoned players like MickyP and Third differ about how to manage loss.

Accept lost session vs recovery.

I talked to MickyP and I know he agrees that recovery is such a form of chasing losses.

But actually I still have trouble in accepting a small loss and always try and recover.

This is because even with a high win rate system you can meet two or more back to back losses because... its roulette!

And two or more consecutive losses scare me very much.

The point is... when recovery fails and you lose more than twice your "accept loss amount" you start wondering again what of the two options is really the best.
Still I cant go through this.
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Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by fiben7 on Yesterday at 03:44:07 PM »
extra info here

(i) the system bets on each and every spin (unless the risk management tool described above triggers in, but this does not have to do with prediction)

(ii) the info needed to bet is within the last spin number or a combination of the last spin number and the one before in case the last spin is within the Orphelins ( I ignore Orphelins in the VOT dynamics)

(iii) zero could also be ignored as a signal when drawn on most systems, however I need more data to come to a safer conclusion on this point

(iv) already posted, but relevant to the points above, average bet per spin is 9 chips and payout is always 36
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Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by fiben7 on Yesterday at 03:20:12 PM »
dear scepticus,

sorry to disappoint you :D

I think I have already done that reading between the lines of my posts and more specifically in this extract

"My two cents here, how about a trend/mean reversion in EC or Dozens (that may not a great system itself in the longterm but has its nice winning periods) that is combined with a trend/mean reversion in VOT (that may not a great system itself in the longterm but has its nice winning periods) in a single system that minimises the chips bet and maximises payout?

Working out the combinations and systems performance over time on enough spins data, some interesting graphs arise!

Finetuning the above with prudent risk management rules of drawdowns and hit ratio and a robust system could be in the making!"
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Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by scepticus on Yesterday at 03:05:03 PM »
I am a bit disappointed Fiben7.
I thought you were going to show a different way of choosing  WHAT to  bet .

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Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by fiben7 on Yesterday at 02:56:35 PM »
haha exactly Third, roulette was watching :D

great to hear the same logic validated by you, much appreciated! it is more of a risk management tool of course, nothing that makes you win with a losing system though something that makes you win much more with a winning system!
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Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by Third on Yesterday at 02:48:16 PM »
I've noticed the same thing, its like a rollercoaster.  Its really funny how I discovered it because I noticed that I would get the debt back down to where I am about to close the session and all of a sudden I would lose 1/2 or 3/4 of my profits back again and this happened over and over like clockwork; almost as if someone was waching my game and making me lose. 

Of course someone was watching, it was roulette.  I finally realized that the reason this happens is because I used a large chunk of positive variance to regain the debt and so by the time I was in range to end the session, positive variance would end and negative variance would kick in.  Now I monitor the variance levels and when I see things are getting over-stretched to the positive, I lock in my gains and end the session.
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