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Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by scepticus on Yesterday at 07:39:10 PM »
Third
No. I haven't tried  any other cycles. 36 / 37 seems sensible to me . Any other cycles need to  be justified IMO .
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Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by scepticus on Yesterday at 07:35:32 PM »
You previously told Dobbelsten that you earned 2 % profit and would worry if it was more than that . Now you claim
20% profit ?
"My current system profits about 2% and is one of the main reasons I am happy about it; such profit makes sense in the longterm and proves an advantage over randomness. Anything higher that this 2% level would make me worry to be honest!"   
Choosing whether  or not to ignore the Orphans or zero is subjective so good luck with that . Still a profit is a profit so well done you !
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Roulette Systems / Simplicity.
« Last post by Jamndy on Yesterday at 06:59:21 PM »
Hi to everyone. A newbie here but a newbie very much impressed with this forum, it’s members and their efforts.
The following is a strategy I’ve been using for a short while and so far so good. I’m testing it slowly in the sense i’m using this strategy on online roulette with very low stakes. Perhaps others could add to this ‘testing’ to see if it’s gonna work. In my latest session of about 20 minutes I made a profit of 71 units with no large bank required. This is consistent with every session so far played.
SIMPLY - look at the last seven numbers which have appeared. Look at these with the view it is a pattern of 7 —
E.G. last 7 numbers were in terms of colour -BBRBRRR
NOW BET ON THE NEXT SEVEN NUMBERS WITH ONE UNIT WITH EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE TO THIS PATTERN OF SEVEN WHICH HAS JUST CAME OUT.
This means you will bet seven ONE unit bets on this opposite pattern -  We will call this a session.
If your bank is in profit after the session - repeat all of above keeping your seven bets at 1 unit each bet.
If you are at a loss you should repeat the above session by betting the number of units your loss is. E.G. If your bank is 3 units down then the next session is 7 bets of 3 units each bet.
If after this second session your bank is at a new high level or equal to previous highest level then your next session will be bets of 1 unit. If your bank is still showing lower than it’s last high your next session will be bets of units equal to your the difference between your current bank to its last highest level.

Example of how many units your bets should be in a session.
Bank before session 100 units.
Bank after session 102 units. [new high]
Next session bets are 1 unit.

Bank before next session - now 102 units.
Bank after session - 99 units.
Next session bets are 3 unit.

Bank before next session  - 99 units.
Bank after session 103 units [new high]
Next session bets are 1 unit.

Bank before next session 103 units.
Bank after session 102 units]
Next session bets are 2 units. [when your bank is exactly 1 unit less after a session this is the only time the next session bets are 2 units]
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Roulette Systems / Re: Four Spins To Win
« Last post by Ronno27 on Yesterday at 06:43:11 PM »

Awesome Sam Thanks, I'm trying hardest to put all this into motion. Having one them crazy days from the universe which keeps getting in my way. Up until now lol. I seriously take on board what you have shared. I will test this out for sure let know how get on. My maths is more flawed no complaints  ;D Appreciate your help cheers mate
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Casino Lounge / Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Last post by MickyP on Yesterday at 06:42:46 PM »
This is where testing data reveals its value. To me, one lost session in twenty one sessions played is manageable and should not disqualify the system but this depends on the cash flow of the exercise.
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Casino Lounge / Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Last post by Astutillo on Yesterday at 06:32:14 PM »
When you are testing a system and you encounter a loss do you dump the system or do you push on with testing to see how frequently losses occur?

I would like to say that I remain still and strong and go on my way, but I dont.

Today I lost a session after more than 20 consecutive sessions won. And the result is that my mind is starting to think about tweaks and revolutions. While instead it should remain still and strong and keep on.
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Casino Lounge / Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Last post by MickyP on Yesterday at 06:20:11 PM »
Two people look at the same glass of water; one says it is half full and the other says it is half empty. Both people are thirsty; one sees water and the other see the lack of water. Two people make provision for a sustainable supply of water; one digs a well and the other puts a container out to catch the rainwater....The well could dry up and the rains could stop due to drought (variance in roulette).
I do agree that a player must learn to manage loss. Loss has to be controlled and contained. Loss will happen so  prepare a management plan from spin one. I agree that consecutive losses are possible. I have experienced this in real play on a few occasions.

When you are testing a system and you encounter a loss do you dump the system or do you push on with testing to see how frequently losses occur?
What does the statement "It will eventually lose" mean?

 
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Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by fiben7 on Yesterday at 06:08:57 PM »
Sure scepticus, as you see I am always on the positive side regarding your posts on my thread, I am sure you mean well.

Mean reversion on some bet types and trend following on some other bet types combined into a single system while choosing whether to ignore the Orphelins or the Zero; this is the approach in summary. On the 37 spins circle you said (and thanks for the 36 tip, will check this and other levels, it is on my todo list), agreed the next number will not make a difference of its own just that, however as the spins are added then the 37cycle rolling hit ratio after a few losses/wins could change from 15% say to 35%. This is enough for risk management!

On this point, I am thinking, always on a backtesting mode, to check what happens after a rolling hit ratio extremity appears. As per example, check what is the hit ratio of your system in the last 37 spins - note here, what numbers appeared over the last 37 spins do not have to do with my system, their statistical appearance during the last 37 spins and whether they are hot/cold or sleepy does not interest me, my system does not need any such data, it just needs the last spin (or plus one before rarely) plus the straight numbers I bet change very often during the game based on EC and VOT unfolding dynamics - and if at the high level of the range (50%) then check what will be the 37cycle hit ratio in the following 37 spins from that high point; my numbers say it is always lower than 50% and falls very dramatically. Thus I do not mix up previous rolling hit ratio with same spins and thus I segregate past history that gives a signal with future history that validates that signal. Hope that was not confusing, if we were in front if an excel spreadsheet it would all be much simpler to communicate.

On your last point, I need more real data from the kind of roulettes I find most trustworthy (the mechanic autowheels) just to verify again and again my system/strategy and make sure that there is not caveat and most importantly no overfitting/cherry picking effect on my current data. This way I can move from 100 euros average profit over 500 euros bankroll over 4hours sessions to higher bets, stakes and profits. With much more confidence that I have now.

As a quant trader, I have seen many algorithmic strategies doing great for the period 2010-2018 for example on 5mins bars however if you include the 2008 Lehman collapse era data, then such strategies would have resulted in enormous catastrophic dradowns. I need more data to be on the safe side that I have included Lehman roulette variance in my backtesting database as well.

So that I can then say "Scepticus, I have truly found something spectacular and extremely robust". Today, I can say I have a system with so very very encouraging metrics that I believe it will allow me to make the latter statement sooner than later :D
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Casino Lounge / Re: System/Strategy Analysis and Development Yardstick.
« Last post by Third on Yesterday at 05:59:56 PM »
Exactly so!  One method that I use which helps, is to keep the debt but restart the session and continue recovery in a new session.  Even though its true that personal permanence will catch up to me at some point in the future, the session permanence has definitely changed in the present!  :D
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Roulette Systems / Re: Basics Of A Quantitative Roulette Strategy
« Last post by Third on Yesterday at 05:54:38 PM »
Much better , I think , to analyse 36 spin cycles . I have been dong that since the beginning of the year in actual play with what was my usual “ Hit and Run “ method and it still  shows profit .

Nice! Me too (but I use 35 spins cycles)!  Have you tried any other cycle spans?
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