Roulette Life Forum

Roulette Forum => Roulette Strategy Discussion => Topic started by: Astutillo on June 11, 2019, 03:17:33 PM

Title: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 11, 2019, 03:17:33 PM
Suppose you have a good system
Stop win +15
Stop loss -50
Win rate 》88%

The rare times things go south and reach the loss limit I buy in another bank and possibly another one again.
Most of the time I recover, occasionally I wipe out many days of profits.

I can't decide once for all if
- Accept the loss
- Try and recover (with another good system)

This is becoming a philosophical issue to me.
It's very hard to accept a loss, even if I KNOW loss is part of the game (or at least that's what most bettors say).

I wish to know how you solved this dichotomy and why you pick an option or refuse the other.

I wish to understand the parameters involved in choosing one option or another.

I want to solve this riddle once for all and stick to my decision.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: ahlidap on June 11, 2019, 03:31:58 PM
Suppose you have a good system
Stop win +15
Stop loss -50
Win rate 》88%

This question means that this isn't a good system.
Well, mathematical it is, but if that was true, having those 12 losing sessions in 100, shouldn't be a problem, as you will be in plus (according to your numbers).

(88*15) - (12*50) = +720

Quote
I can't decide once for all if- Accept the loss
- Try and recover (with another good system)

Number 1, regardless if the main or secondary systems are good or not.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 11, 2019, 03:56:37 PM
Actually I am in profit.
But not with the amount math allows with these parameters because as I said I occasionally chase my losses wiping out profits.

Even with high win rate systems I am actually scared by back to back losing sessions.
Even if you have a 90% winning systems nothing prevents to lose two in a row or face a very bad run.
That's why psichologically it's hard to me to accept the losing session and avoid recovery attempts.
If I lose a session I'm scared by the possibility to also lose the next.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 11, 2019, 05:19:54 PM
If you got a good system, you should understand reason why it lost. If it's due to variance alone... then continue play,  if it's due conditions that are non favorable, you should stop for a beer.. hour.. dealer..  till the sun goes up.. 
   If you do not understand why system lost, stop playing all together.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: scepticus on June 11, 2019, 05:29:55 PM
I think a maths based  method is  the best approach  but the maths is  a guide -  nothing more. 

The variance of the winning numbers  is the real  problem and you simply cannot control it.   You  must accept it’s decision . Using a progression is guesswork . How many trials do you  need ?  How many Progression methods have been proposed  in this forum and  have proved profitable ? Theory is one thing - putting it into practice is another . 

I   play Hit and Run over 2 x 2  spins and accept a win or loss after a win or 4 losses .   It has proved profitable . 

You guys really  need to ditch the idea of becoming roulette  professionals  - orwinnng a million - until you focus  first on a sensible Bet Selection . That is the key . No progression  can work without a sensible bet Selection.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 11, 2019, 05:46:10 PM
If you got a good system, you should understand reason why it lost. If it's due to variance alone... then continue play,  if it's due conditions that are non favorable, you should stop for a beer.. hour.. dealer..  till the sun goes up.. 
   If you do not understand why system lost, stop playing all together.

This makes complete sense

But how do you understand if the loss is due to variance alone or other accidents?
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 11, 2019, 05:53:00 PM
You guys really  need to ditch the idea of becoming roulette  professionals  - orwinnng a million - until you focus  first on a sensible Bet Selection . That is the key . No progression  can work without a sensible bet Selection.
Scep,
I agree with you about the paramount importance of bet selection.

In the past I underrated this feature, but now I think it's crucial.  It is the only element which can provide what Third calls positive variance, where we can profitably go flat betting. I'm still working with (mild) negative progressions but I'm even more closer to flat bet.

So guys, so far all of you seem to avoid recovery and accept loss.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Stratege on June 11, 2019, 06:38:08 PM
Using a progression is guesswork . How many trials do you  need ?  How many Progression methods have been proposed  in this forum and  have proved profitable ? Theory is one thing - putting it into practice is another . 


Very nice quote of Scepticus ! Nothing to add !

Astutillo, a profit is always the difference between losses and gains. A very old quote says "we have seen players lose their fortune, wanting to recover a single chip". If you think more about a good selection, I think fiben7 is moving in the right direction !
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: scepticus on June 11, 2019, 07:05:48 PM
So guys, so far all of you seem to avoid recovery and accept loss.
Astutillo
A good Bet Selection will recover with Flat Bets . Yes . Everyone needs to accept a loss when it happens - there is no alternative.  Bettors don't TRY to lose do they ? It happens because we have no control  over variance . We don't know when a loss will occur . All we can do is control our betting . We really need to be aware that we are GAMBLING ! . Despite what  some  think - risking money is a risky business !   ;D   
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 11, 2019, 09:07:58 PM
I am the homework man  ;D
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 11, 2019, 10:51:14 PM
This thread is extremely valuable.  I haven't found a way to avoid the upward-downward paradigm.  All I have done is cut losses at a certain point and win it back.  It is because the statistics constantly hunt us.  Its like all the worser sequences that are not usually  seen are all time bombs that are waiting to go off.  Its like a nightmare because there is no way to diffuse the bomb and save the people.  All we can do is to get as many people out of there as possible and the situation will never be predictable, the timing will always be "bad" and we simply have to respond by ultimately saving ourselves at the expense of other lives.

If we cut losses too early, the losses become more common.  If we fight to regain the smaller sized losses, we risk more until the rarer losses hit and the explosion is much bigger.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 12, 2019, 04:33:39 AM
The statistics constantly hunt us.  Its like all the worser sequences that are not usually  seen are all time bombs that are waiting to go off.  Its like a nightmare because there is no way to diffuse the bomb and save the people.  All we can do is to get as many people out of there as possible and the situation will never be predictable, the timing will always be "bad" and we simply have to respond by ultimately saving ourselves at the expense of other lives.

This is exactly how I see roulette.
But maybe It's such a psichological fault, a mental error in approaching the game.

Once we have a good system 》85-90% win rate and set up proper win goal/stop loss ratio, we should simply act as an impassive accountant, recording incomes and outflows and drawing up a financial statement.

Roulette still makes me thrill and excite because I love the game and hate losing.
But feelings must be set aside.
In the late months I improved my skills and thus also my profits increased.
But still I FEEL I am a loser because in my head I am a loser the way I approach the game.

To change things you must change yourself.
It's not only what you do but who you have to become in order to reach your ultimate goal.

When I'll be able to think and act like the impassive boring accountant I will know I have accomplished the paramount task.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 12, 2019, 04:58:16 AM
Not all accountants are boring!

(https://image.tmdb.org/t/p/w300/81EbzMG2FNnnVrG1OOnJsWVW6Mm.jpg)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBfsgcswlYQ
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Rinad on June 12, 2019, 12:31:01 PM


   Astutillo,  your honestly is appreciated and trust me your issue with losses is everyone's problem because we all have them.
the system is not where the problem is and you are right to said it is a "psychological or philosophical one".
how we approche the work is everything.
we change how we look at this game and we will win even with a semi-good system.
the most successfull players I know of are the ones who can "take losses easier then others".
one way to deal with variances is to paid yourself a hourly wage no matter what happens at the table and you will always bring home a sens of "winning" just like if you were going to work.
Cheers,
Rinad
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 12, 2019, 02:19:08 PM
Rinad
your words give me positive vibes.
Also I appreciated your advice.
Thank you.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Rinad on June 12, 2019, 05:21:59 PM


   when people invest in a business they surely dont expect to make money the first day they open the door.

when you work at a job we dont expect to bring cash at the end of day for most of us.

when we buy stocks, bonds ect... we just wait and live our investments there on a bad day or month.

when we play roulette we just feel like we need to GET PAID THAT DAY.

THAT IS BECAUSE WE SEE IT AS "LOSING" IF CHIPS ARE GONE INSTEAD OF TEMPORARY DEPOSITS.
so I said we need to change our perception greatly or we will lose no matter how great our system is.

I have done that "wrong' way of playing and it is impossible to correct it UNTIL we see it as business. period !
accepting a loss is much better then trying to recover because it has the element of "forgiving ourselves" in it.

trying to recover has to element of "fighting back" to ease the pain. we need to accept pain as a normal in order to be deal with it. the world can seem to crunble on our head if we dont and we are willing to triple our losses just to "feel good "  about ourselves.
most of us feel a sens of "shame' when we lose, like being lost in the forest, but we should not.
even if we made a stupid mistake we dont need to beat ourselves up and hide it as if we were "untouchable".

i respect players who are willing to share their bad fortunes with mistakes. it means they are humans and real people who anderstand life as it is.

we fall into success eventually, and like gladiators, when enough blood has been shade and enough pain has been dealt with, we finaly will win our game to 'freedom", and that means winning !

God bless,
Rinad
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Stratege on June 13, 2019, 04:21:35 AM

Astutillo, the sincerity of your words is very respectable. Allow me to give you my opinion. We arn't all here for the money (let alone getting money from other members). There are messages on roulette and its techniques. People come for this and stay here for several other reasons. Money must not be the first objective, otherwise it ruins the mind by immediate desires. Money must be a consequence of our research. Our passion, we must put it in the learning of knowledge on roulette.

In experimental science we speak of "experimenter bias", to explain that if the experimenter already has an opinion, he will find (in spite of himself) results which will confirm his opinion (in practice, the player who wishes to win will always find a progression that will resist on his sample of spins, then he will lose at the casino, blinded by his desire to win). We must rather confirm advantageous phenomena by statistics. Our desire to make money (through play) can become a huge obstacle, it's not "the right spirit". The right mind is to want to beat the roulette statistically. It's a technical challenge, without emotional bias, and everyone is free to want to win or not, playing or not playing.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 13, 2019, 07:27:38 AM
Stratege,

I meant to say that my "ultimate" goal is to make money. My "immediate" goal is to expand my knowledge, improve my approach, share questions doubts and experience and learn from consistent winners.

About money, two sides of the coin exist.
You talked about one side.
The other is that we must educate ourself to the possibility of making money and growing "rich".
This seems wacky and strange. But there are people who in their inner self feel they don't deserve money. They make an actual self-sabotage which prevents them to reach any financial success. The issue is too long for here.
A more money-oriented mind is not a mistake.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 13, 2019, 07:32:03 PM
Money is a measurement of success  in the game. If someone do not earn, their activity is just a loss of time. And time is most valuable asset of all.
   In life free time is rarely available,  in order to create it most of the time free available money is needed. Time is money in money driven society,  and here is the place where we live. 
   The only freedom that really matters is to invest your time in what makes you happy or helps you to be happy... so strange to explain these basic things to supposed adult people.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: scepticus on June 14, 2019, 03:01:00 AM
Astutillo
You missed the point I was making .  Mr Perfect is here TO TAKE MONEY FROM OTHER MEMBERS WHO ARE FOOLISH ENOUGH TO SEEK HIS PAID FOR ADVICE .
Yes , the rest of us want take money FROM THE CASINO not other members .  So who do you think is the cretin.?

Mr Perfect claims that I  do not bet in a real casino without  any evidence  . I could prove otherwise if he had the courage to meet me in a   Grosvenor Casino.  He won't do that because he is too afraid to meet my challenge to him.
Abuse is part of his stock -in -trade ! 
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Greek on June 15, 2019, 09:10:08 PM
It sickens me to think about losing. The fact that losing is the focus on every roulette player's mind means there are no successful players here. Success is not measured by understanding the dichotomy of losing. Success is measured by the consistency of hitting one's target. Losing is only an irritant that's happens occasionally, 1 in 10 sessions.

So, if the player achieves consistency in winning, meaning hitting their targets, losing is not even a factor to consider. If you are hitting more that losing, then losing is not even worth talking about.

There should be a thread called The Dichotomy of Winning.

Greek
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: scepticus on June 16, 2019, 01:26:05 AM
Not necessarily , Greek.
When bettting  I am confident of a  profit when  leaving the table.  That is bcause I usually do . Nevertheless  we must consider the possibity of losing . It would be foolish to think that we could always win.
 Those who moan about losing are usually those who use a negative progression and don't consider the probability of PROFIT  - only that of WINNING . Two different things .
Congrats . on winning 9 out of 10 !
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 16, 2019, 07:21:12 AM
It sickens me to think about losing. The fact that losing is the focus on every roulette player's mind means there are no successful players here. Success is not measured by understanding the dichotomy of losing. Success is measured by the consistency of hitting one's target. Losing is only an irritant that's happens occasionally, 1 in 10 sessions.

So, if the player achieves consistency in winning, meaning hitting their targets, losing is not even a factor to consider. If you are hitting more that losing, then losing is not even worth talking about.

There should be a thread called The Dichotomy of Winning.

Greek

You can always start that thread by yourself.

I guess your arguments are too simplicistic.

The ultimate sense of this thread is to understand if - when we face a lost session - is better to accept the loss or implement a recovery attempt.

In my hopes this understanding should come from seasoned winning roulette players or from players who have a deeper understanding of game dynamics and math than myself.

What I have learnt so far is that accepting the lost session is the best option.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Greek on June 16, 2019, 08:54:20 AM
Whether a player accepts a loss or implements a recovery attempt, it does not matter. My point is, if the player has to worry about losing and ponder the psychological aspect of the game, the player has no business playing roulette or any form of gambling.

Simplicity is the basis of any great strategy, "Less is more." The only reason someone would contemplate the thought of losing is when the game affects their lives monetarily.

Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 16, 2019, 11:50:24 AM
Whether a player accepts a loss or implements a recovery attempt, it does not matter. My point is, if the player has to worry about losing and ponder the psychological aspect of the game, the player has no business playing roulette or any form of gambling.

I totally disagree with all the above.

In a game of negative expection how to manage losses is crucial if the player wish to be a long term winner.
Along with systems and strategies, other features as money management and mindset are of paramount importance.

Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: scepticus on June 16, 2019, 11:54:47 AM
I agree  with you here Greeek . Where I disagreed  was your point that :

" It sickens me to think about losing. The fact that losing is the focus on every roulette player's mind "
Every Player  ? Nope  !

Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Greek on June 16, 2019, 03:26:12 PM
Whether a player accepts a loss or implements a recovery attempt, it does not matter. My point is, if the player has to worry about losing and ponder the psychological aspect of the game, the player has no business playing roulette or any form of gambling.

I totally disagree with all the above.

In a game of negative expection how to manage losses is crucial if the player wish to be a long term winner.
Along with systems and strategies, other features as money management and mindset are of paramount importance.

Negative expectation is a given for most games. The statement about losing is on every one's mind is also a fact. Most experience players already have the skills required to play the game of roulette. In their "tool box" they incorporate systems, strategies, money management, etc. Why does the roulette player need these tools to play roulette? They need these tools to hedge any losses that is inevitable. Therefore, losses is in everyone's mind.

Too often, I see players implement strategies that require a great deal of memorization, data analysis, and execution. VP players, for example, make constant calculations to find the optimum betting choice. Mechanical players, favor a process which require a robotic repetition. System players constantly "tweaking" their approach as random spins offer another "bug" in their approach.

When a player can walk up to any live table, scan the tote board, and place a bet, without the use of tracking cards, computer, or virtual losing, that player has achieved the ultimate betting strategy. You are wondering, does a strategy like that exist? Simplicity is the key to any endeavor, "KISS". Anything else is just "noise."

 There is no reason to think about losing when a player wins more than he loses. This kind of thinking only happens when a player possesses a strategy that consistently wins.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 16, 2019, 03:36:31 PM
Well, Greek... There are things that can be done in roulette and the are these that can not. Few really can go and look and start to play very qweak... but still need to think a bit and know quite a lot. And worst of all... it's not best way to do it, although can be profitable.
   Before making winning monkey jumps l would advise you to verify that board of yours, quite a few post mistakes, especially on the wheels where such a strategy can be implemented as you describe.
   If you really discovered such a thing, make these who discovered it as well little favor ( wouldn't you?), just chut up and tolk about something else...  do not tolk,  but play.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Greek on June 16, 2019, 04:14:56 PM
Well, Greek... There are things that can be done in roulette and the are these that can not. Few really can go and look and start to play very qweak... but still need to think a bit and know quite a lot. And worst of all... it's not best way to do it, although can be profitable.
   Before making winning monkey jumps l would advise you to verify that board of yours, quite a few post mistakes, especially on the wheels where such a strategy can be implemented as you describe.
   If you really discovered such a thing, make these who discovered it as well little favor ( wouldn't you?), just chut up and tolk about something else...  do not tolk,  but play.

What a hostile response. I did not discover such a thing. I created it. I have gone through all the traditional approaches that I have described, systems, methods, and even a bit of VB, none of which works consistently. Then, it happened, a light came on. The rest is history. By coming here and telling the roulette world that such an approach does exist, gives hope to those who seek the light at the end of the tunnel. I paid a huge price, a lifetime of study.

"just chut up and tolk about something else...  do not tolk,  but play"

Telling me what to do, the way you have just stated, tells me you have control issues. I know the only thing I can control is how I conduct myself.

Earn it. You too can become a Monkey.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 16, 2019, 05:03:20 PM
Greek
I liked your post.

However you should admit or consider that there is not only one way or approach to win at roulette (yours, for example).

Anyway if you could elaborate a little bit more about your strategy It would be useful.

Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Greek on June 17, 2019, 02:43:00 PM
Hi Astutillo,
My apologies for going off topic.

I believe each individual deals with a loss based on their financial situation. If the player is playing with money they cannot afford to play, scared money, then the psychological aspect of the game affects the player much more deeply than someone who has money they can afford to lose.

From the stand point of treating roulette as a business, accepting the loss is a part of doing business, unless your business plan also includes try and recover (with another good system). If so, you could incorporate both.

From my perspective, my business plan treats every situation like a impassive boring accountant, detached and unemotional.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Mako on June 17, 2019, 08:08:52 PM
Good thoughts in this thread by Astutillo, Rinaldo, scepticus, Greek, and others, I tend to agree with the consensus that "recovery" isn't something I'm necessarily worried about after a losing session.

I think specticus said it, but my thoughts are that it's just not necessary to have a recovery phase in your repertoire if you're confident on what is most likely to occur when you play your core method.

I know Third and Talos and others have developed extremely comprehensive recovery methods, and it's very cool to read through how they approach it, but for me I'd prefer to just eat the loss and resume play.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 18, 2019, 04:57:32 AM
The reason I don't eat losses deliberately, is that it opens me up to back to back (before I regain the all time high) losses.  The session where we lose is precious because it contains a high level of negative variance.  I am a firm believer in taking back as much positive variance as possible before calling it quits.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 18, 2019, 08:04:40 AM
Don't get me wrong, I mean I do abandon sessions once the variance has corrected; in fact, I abandoned one just a minute ago!  :o

EDIT: I recovered 100 units in 3 spins!!!! :D

(https://ae01.alicdn.com/kf/HTB1QqeDKVXXXXXVaXXXq6xXFXXXv/10-5CM-15-2CM-Like-A-Boss-Meme-JDM-Vinyl-Car-Decals-Car-Stickers-Car-Styling.jpg)
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 18, 2019, 09:14:10 AM
Yes Third too is right.

Accepting the loss is the wisest option, but one should deeply have tested the recovery possibilities in advance and if they work most of the times take them in consideration.

For example I have two very good systems with win rate 》88%
One is focused on hot repeaters.
Other is focused on sleeping finals.

If I lost a session with hot repeaters I accept the loss (at least should). But if i lost a session with the sleeping finals, or reach a low point in my BR with It, I can try and recover with the few hot repeaters, which can provide lower exposure and rapid recovery.
Losing would mean you lost a session with two back to back failures by two high win rate systems. Of course possible, but maybe we can allow ourselves to rely on probability.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: fiben7 on June 18, 2019, 11:12:01 AM
Hi Astutillo,

On your point below, have you worked out more in depth statistics of your systems of >>88% hit ratio? for example, expected units profit per XXX spins played, average bet size, average profit size, maximum consecutive losses, maximum bankroll drawdown, maximum spins needed to recover that maximum bankroll drawdown etc?

This will better help you estimate and decide whether it is worthy to stay and recover or just leave the table at any time.

The hit ratio itself is a poor statistic, it needs to be studied along with its risk/return profile.

To use an example from football, Barcelona may win 88% of times in its Home games in the Primera Division, however if the average betting odd from the betting company for Barcelona to win at its Home game in the Primera Division is 1.02, then betting on Barcelona winning at Home games in the Primera Division is a not a winning strategy itself, when you do the maths!

Hope that helps!

Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 18, 2019, 11:50:49 AM
Hi Fiben,

I have not worked out the parameters you mention. I probably should.

So far I am more focused on win rate in order to set up a perfect win goal/stop loss ratio.

I play the short session possible, with a prudent win goal. I usually play three sessions per day with It. Never allows any serious drawdown.

So far the system generates consistent profits. These profits would be higher if I'd learn to better manage my rage when things go south. In fact I wiped out many other won sessions due to such a "tilt".

Anyway you're perfectly right and It's my fault not to deep analyze all the variables.
Actually I am not at all the "maths guy" though I'm working to improve this serious weakness.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: fiben7 on June 18, 2019, 12:05:01 PM
Fair enough Astutillo, understood; agreed though that at some point you should record and calculate the parameters at discussion.

Whatsmore, knowledge of such statistics will greatly improve the psychological side of your play as well; you will not have any "rage" as you put it, once you hit 6 consecutive lossed bets when you have the knowledge that the maximum consecutive lossed bets are 15. You will sit tight and acknowledge the negative variance while having the info that it could go up to 15. Thus, no rage, just realtime analysis and estimation of the ongoing variance, whether negative or positive.

Best of luck across!
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 18, 2019, 01:40:55 PM
Knowledge of such statistics will greatly improve the psychological side of your play as well; you will not have any "rage" as you put it, once you hit 6 consecutive lossed bets when you have the knowledge that the maximum consecutive lossed bets are 15. You will sit tight and acknowledge the negative variance while having the info that it could go up to 15. Thus, no rage, just realtime analysis and estimation of the ongoing variance, whether negative or positive.

Perfectly said
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 18, 2019, 05:00:54 PM
Ya brilliant post from The Fiber!
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 18, 2019, 05:17:36 PM
Well guys, you can keep patting each other on the back. Speak how well you handle losses. All of you have winning system for sure and l for sure know that it is not the truth. You can blame me, destiny,  god, variance...ets. Till the point when you face the reality and go to gamblinganonimus.com
    My posts get deleted and reducted,  l in fact do not give a f***.  For 2 reasons :
1. I deleted everything what was sensitive from my posts.
2. It's your money and your destiny. 
    But we know the truth at the end of the day, right? I just hope that you do not lie to yourself same way you lie for others that may read your posts. Misleading inocent it's a sure path to the hell.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 18, 2019, 06:45:29 PM
I blame positive variance :shrug:

(https://img-s3.onedio.com/id-5666d8a99730478d0f2a9964/rev-0/raw/s-cbd9d871f5a372b77e262e1276bdf12ea215bc05.gif)
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: fiben7 on June 18, 2019, 08:02:25 PM
Hahahaha what an answer Third!
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 18, 2019, 08:15:46 PM
I mean, basically, winning at roulette can be summed up in three simple words:

Surviving negative variance.

All of system design and strategic play must be formulated with that as a chief goal; if not, we simply will lose.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 18, 2019, 09:07:24 PM
No. Winning in roulette sums up by other 3 words combinations.  " Exploring the edge" and " right in  time" .
   If your system is not optimised for positive , you will fight the negative all your life and will see no money.
   Real money come when it's positive and you press hard for it .
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Greek on June 18, 2019, 10:41:54 PM
To each their own...the dichotomy of opinions, no winners, no losers, just being.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Stratege on June 19, 2019, 07:35:37 AM
I just hope that you do not lie to yourself same way you lie for others that may read your posts. Misleading inocent it's a sure path to the hell.


I think MrPerfect should study the notion of "reflective thinking" to understand if, what he says would not apply to himself!

Let me explain. This member called me “a liar” when I talked about the superiority of progression positive, and that the progression negative is very bad with a winning method. It was simple, however, to make a simulation to "understand this simplistic truth when one checks this on its winning method". But no, this member preferred to use the method of insults after a curious reasoning, mixing everything (to deceive readers' understanding, because he himself was lost). He said, yes for the progression negative. Then, not for progression positve. Then he said, "but all serious players know the progression positive." Then again, "you have to vary with progression negative and positive progression" (I explained that his arguments were completely illogical). So he had insulted me (liar and degenerate) by saying that I did not bring concrete proof of the superiority of the positive progression. But lately (a few days ago), he said that you have to use a positive progression with a winning method!

Can this member still pretend that the others are liars, and that he can legitimately ask for money against his advice? He should stop accusing others of malevolence and take stock of his morality. A member who is a moderator and who insults several members!

I say for everyone's general culture that authoritarian people have a lot of big clichés (stereotypes), so they have a lot of trouble studying things down to the last detail. They are therefore logically not predisposed to study roulette for a long time. For example, MrPerfect claimed that he had tested 1.5 million spins on EC and that if his research is negative, it is because it is impossible to win on EC! Would he think that his conclusions are of high scientific value?

Members will find that he never criticizes with technical arguments but always with the register of morality. MrPerfect is a member who plays in VB, that is to say between cheating and the lack of vigilance of the dealer, he does not care in his life of morality. A saying says "it is often the firemen who are the arsonists". So, if you turn MrPerfect, please, stop putting yourself above the others with your false morality. Do what Confucius says "do not try to be noticed, be rather remarkable". Which means, be brilliant with practical techniques, and not with the same worn out words and so far away from the game, because you have nothing to say about roulette.

MrPerfect, you are here to hunt down naïve players and ask them for money because you do not win it with roulette. Spending several months in your spider's web to catch a poor guy and strip him, this is another way to get around the rules of roulette to win. If you had a real method, you would have other ideas to sell your product properly, you would not do that almost in secret, like in front of a wheel.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Greek on June 19, 2019, 04:08:02 PM
How does a player put himself in a situation where he constantly loses?  The lack of effort to pay attention to details.
In poker, you can tell what kind of player you are dealing with by the way he stacks his chips, neat: detailed and conservative, messy: careless and unstable.

Same holds true with roulette players, not by the way they stack their chips, but the way they conduct themselves, neat or careless.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: kav on June 19, 2019, 05:56:03 PM
Stop personal attacks or get banned - your choice.
Thanks for your understanding.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 20, 2019, 01:23:15 AM
No. Winning in roulette sums up by other 3 words combinations.  " Exploring the edge" and " right in  time" .
   If your system is not optimised for positive , you will fight the negative all your life and will see no money.
   Real money come when it's positive and you press hard for it .

This is brilliant!  So, how do I set my stop loss for when it doesn't work???
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 20, 2019, 06:22:23 AM
Good qwestion. You look simulation of betting graph for when it does work and determine how many units you need for it . Only difference is that you optimise it not to survive but to prosper.
    If you do it right, unusual situation ( not as planned ) will wipe your session bank only. No point to optimise for extream events. Optimise it for general 80% of situations when it's works.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 20, 2019, 07:27:45 AM
Wow!  OK!

I can make a press for 80% and my bankroll will be 96 units.  Do you just press until the 96 units are gone or is there a press goal too?
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 20, 2019, 08:51:27 AM
You need to understand. ..
 Playing with the edge require collection of data , determination of the target, determination of proper ( favorable) conditions for playing. After " home work" you optimise both, your bet selection ( target) and your session bank required. 
   If everything go as planned,  you will win much more then your session bank ... 20-70 of them is normal.
   If something will go not as planned and you do not wake up to that, you only lose session bankroll  ( tiny % of money avaliable for you to play).
   Session bank ( stop loss) is there to protect you from your mistakes 80% of the time.
   If you can not win with money neseesary to bank 80% of your motivated investments,  then something is wrong , either they change things and you didn't realise, or you do something wrong.
    Session bank, agression in betting , target ...ets are results of your homework.  It's not taken out of the blue values.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 20, 2019, 09:13:54 AM
So you press for a range of 20%-70% of your bankroll, depending on time and conditions?

So in this case, 96 units, I would press for 115.20-163.20?  Or should I just do a trailing stop loss of some kind?

I see why homework is important because once you profit from the first hit, the second hit will require quite a large risk.  I could scale it so that the second press would have a shorter window and then the rest would risk only the total bankroll; this way the 80% is still preserved for the entire attack.

EXAMPLE: I bet 1 unit and I obtain my first hit on spin 27, and gain 8 units.  My next bet will be for 2 units but only for 4 spins, from there I continue with 1 unit.

Or should I blow the whole bankroll on the second attack?
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 20, 2019, 09:56:06 AM
20-70 times your session bankroll. Not %...
    Your session bankroll = normall possible down swing on the graph of your betting simulation.  Value you choose should cover normality,  not extream cases.
   Your target should be many times of your session bankroll. Higher the edge you can find, higher should be your expected take.
    When everything goes as planed, use Kelly betting to maximise money taken.
    Simple.
 Example, if normal down swing is 80 units, you expect to win 1600 units minimum. 90-100 units is your session bank.
   To win many times of session bank you need to structure your betting ( money management ) accordingly expectation. It's a part of home work. It's done with data while you simulate your betting to see what may happen in play.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 20, 2019, 10:08:20 AM
Thanks God looks like Dr. Jekyll is back.
I was too scared by Mr. Hyde
 :o
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 20, 2019, 10:15:21 AM
Good qwestion. You look simulation of betting graph for when it does work and determine how many units you need for it . Only difference is that you optimise it not to survive but to prosper.
    If you do it right, unusual situation ( not as planned ) will wipe your session bank only. No point to optimise for extream events. Optimise it for general 80% of situations when it's works.

Great post.

Mr. Perfect also confirmed what I always thought. We should not aim at a % of our session bankroll but at multiplying it betting the range of our positive variance.

Easier to say than to do but It's a great advice to me.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 20, 2019, 11:47:45 AM
Aha, I think I get it.

So a normal session for me is 3 wins but in those 3 wins, there are maxmimum drawdowns possible that I am willing to withstand.  So, I need to fund my session bankroll to withstand these drawdowns, while betting to either maxmimize my profit or bust my session bankroll.

Ok, Kelly Criterion should be my guide.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: scepticus on June 20, 2019, 01:01:42 PM
The Kelly Criterion says to bet a % of your bankroll . AS your bankroll fluctuates so does your stakes .
Difficult to operate in roulette when betting inside  . Applies more to a single bet such as an EC or Dozen or Column . .
 
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 20, 2019, 03:31:08 PM
It's much more difficult to win playing EC then to choose apropriate target.
   While playing inside,  no need to go "all in"... from 5-9 numbers ( distances) sector we can choose best 3-5 . Precision pays off and it's more simple to place a bet.
   What l gonna say is contradictory. ... but less numbers we bet, higher edge we may realise in play. Often we will make more money playing less numbers. Higher fluctuations to the bank are to be expected as well... but when it "connects" results are breathtaking.  Think about expected hit 3 times on the row betting 3 numbers...
  3 to 36 , 36 to 432, 432 to 5184.
       It's a unique feeling to have this experience. ... after such an event there are no more questions about how to play and what to aim for.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Third on June 20, 2019, 04:21:52 PM
  3 to 36 , 36 to 432, 432 to 5184.

3!?  Your bankroll was 3??
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 20, 2019, 05:54:12 PM
It's much more difficult to win playing EC then to choose apropriate target.
   While playing inside,  no need to go "all in"... from 5-9 numbers ( distances) sector we can choose best 3-5 . Precision pays off and it's more simple to place a bet.
   What l gonna say is contradictory. ... but less numbers we bet, higher edge we may realise in play. Often we will make more money playing less numbers. Higher fluctuations to the bank are to be expected as well... but when it "connects" results are breathtaking.  Think about expected hit 3 times on the row betting 3 numbers...
  3 to 36 , 36 to 432, 432 to 5184.
       It's a unique feeling to have this experience. ... after such an event there are no more questions about how to play and what to aim for.

When you talk about "exploring the edge" do you mean only an edge by phisical factors of the wheel (you being an AP) or do you mean also a possible statistical edge after having analyzed the number sequence?
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: scepticus on June 20, 2019, 06:16:07 PM
  3 to 36 , 36 to 432, 432 to 5184.

3!?  Your bankroll was 3??
He could be playing a Positive Progression . A High Risk strategy .
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 20, 2019, 06:56:41 PM
@ Scepticus,  Third , Astutillo. ..
 The post above was just an example of what could happen in 3 spins predicted right if someone is bold enough to try it out.
   I myself often try such a shot if target is achieved and game is good . Sometimes it "connects", less often then l would like, but more often then probability dictates.( AP ;) ).   
     @Astutillo,  there is no statistical edge for a player. Stats is just a tool, not a solution.  Simple change in ball or any other physical variable can change the game completely. 
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: bulow on June 23, 2019, 06:18:49 PM
Hi guys how are you all doing ?

I see a great post here, and i also see a lot of comment trying to attack mr.P

I will just quote that mr.p has his own way to approach the wheel, he's not looking for taking members money, just dont want to teach for free and i guess i would do the same if i had all of his knowledge. I just want to let you know Astutillo that you should listen to his advise. He is one of the greatest players i have ever met. And for those saying he charge money from members to make his own, thats not true at all if he see potential in a player the last thing he talks about is you paying him, but instead teaching you all the right tools to become succesful and spending his time talking to you for days and weeks, a person would never do that if he was just trying to make some quick money.

I just want to say that we are here to help each other and not to point fingers. Be possitive guys come on we are here to make money and not to be negative. We should all respects one anothers way to approach the wheel, maybe for some of us its system betting with progression and for others is flatbet and VB so on it continues.

I just needed to make this post, since i dont like false claim and saying mr.p is only after taking money from poor members come one, the man har so much knowledge in the game of roulette and can teach you a lot.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Sputnik on June 23, 2019, 06:58:39 PM


Nonsense - If you know the past then you could distinguish the difference between a psychopath and a person with good intentions teaching something that has value or is just made up fiction.
Your response might change the mind from does who don't know the true nature behind the personality.
I will just write this warning so others can be aware of spending useless hours learning nothing.

Cheers
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: fiben7 on June 23, 2019, 07:17:17 PM
For old and new members, MrPerfect has clearly demonstrated his personality here, in past and more recent posts.

Whatever his skills, experience, profitability etc., it is his own words, phrasing and behavior that speak for themselves. As do for all of us here.

It is up to any member here to judge the quality.

I am not suggesting anything as a personal view, it would not be polite on my behalf.

Just read, think and evaluate, a teacher, worthy or not!

Best
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: bulow on June 23, 2019, 07:25:08 PM
Well i cant speak about the past since i don't know about that, i was just sharing my own experience with him and that has not been bad. I have learned a lot and not just theory but actual play and he has always been kind to me. so i am just talking about my experience.

Cheers

Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 23, 2019, 07:35:58 PM
Thanks, Bulow,  do not bother... these who can read and think ( as yourself and few others) are minority here. Others do not represent anything interesting anyway. ..never did.
   @ Fiben7, if you are really interested in trying your idea on real wheel, contact me in private.  I will give you 1m spins from life wheel, so you can test it on something " more reliable ". Unfortunately it's on wird format,  so a programme installation will be required,  but it's a good programme that may prove to be useful for you.
    Vb school is closed down. As l stated before,  l already got what l wanted from this or any other forum. If l have free time in the future, l will reopen it somewhere else.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Stratege on June 23, 2019, 07:36:44 PM
Bulow can list the rude words or negatif on this forum, and look at the member who is first on the list, far ahead of everyone else.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 23, 2019, 07:43:31 PM
Yap,  Stratege,  it's definitely me. I tried my best to avoid,  but l can not stand lies,scams, pretending and stupidity. It just doesn't go right with my personality.   
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MickyP on June 23, 2019, 10:53:14 PM
Why is there an attack on MrPerfect?

The only thing I paid MrPerfect was ATTENTION and I learnt the value of a wheel based game. His words can be hard to swallow at times but if you pay attention to what he is saying and not how he says it, you may learn a thing or two.

Respect to you MrPerfect.
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: bulow on June 23, 2019, 10:58:27 PM
couldn't agree more mickyp.

And yes respect to you Mr.P and thank you for taking your time to teach some of us at least.

Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: scepticus on June 24, 2019, 02:46:33 AM
Guys . You are off topic ! ;D
Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: Astutillo on June 24, 2019, 11:52:03 AM
I did not like the way Mr Perfect talked in almost all his posts in this thread.

But as I've already said I'm not here to make new friends. This would be nice but it's not the first and ultimate reason to be here.

I'm here looking for new perspectives, ideas, roulette problem solving, better understanding of the game, etc.

Mr Perfect sometimes provides good stuff. In this thread he said some things I consider of good value. Different perspectives, different goal targets.

That's the kind of things I record and put on test. Who cares if he thinks I am a rookie, an idiot or an apple pie? I'm here to make money. More skill, better mindset, more money.

Thus I thank Mr Perfect.

There are a lot of nice guys here, sophisticated minds, but often I can't take nothing really VALUABLE from what they say. Surely my fault.

Title: Re: The dichotomy of losing
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 24, 2019, 01:11:23 PM
Astutillo,  l have nothing in particular egainst you or anyone. I'm very thankful for this forum to give me new friends and colaborators. These few that decided to work make me continue to belive in people in general.
   I decided to stop offering vbschool because it is time and effort consuming to teach new people. I study other things myself now..  preparing to become a day trader. This and my family do occupy all the time l have available.