Roulette Life Forum

Roulette Forum => Roulette Strategy Discussion => Topic started by: kav on May 29, 2019, 09:45:07 AM

Title: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: kav on May 29, 2019, 09:45:07 AM
Many players have been burned and disappointed by progressions and roulette strategies. They think the only way to win is to increase the accuracy of predictions. To find a bet that will show more often than it should theoretically and flat bet it to death.

None would disagree that it would be great if an advantageous bet selection existed. But there are some major problems in this way of thinking.

In order for a bet selection to offer an advantage, it should be showing more often than it should. You are actually looking/asking to bend probabilities. The specific bet selection doesn't matter, whether it is the finals of the last number or Black after 4 Reds or whatever. The point is that in order for your bet selection to offer an advantage it should win more often than expected by probabilities. Futility?.. Fallacy?..

Another problem with the "advantageous bet selection" is variance. Just as a number that has 1/37 probabilities to appear can sleep for 200 spins, like wise even an (imaginary) advantageous bet selection can miss again and again and again. Variance can eliminate any advantage. Even worse, it can make your bet lose for extended periods of time, winning much less than it should. What do you do in this case - go bust?

But the worst part of their approach is the dismissal of money management. "Flat bet is the way" they preach. "Money management is the way" I reply. I don't need my bet selection to have an advantage. Hey! it's fine even if it wins 30% less often than probabilities suggest, I can still be a winner with proper MM. 4 Reds in 12 spins? No problem betting on Red. My dozen appearing only twice in 10 spins? No problem with proper MM.

Why look to obtain a minuscule and unrealistic advantage in bet selection and ignore the powerful tool of MM?
Bet selection is important. But not because it can offer a win ratio (risk/reward) advantage. It is important because:
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: Joe on May 29, 2019, 10:57:21 AM
The point is that in order for your bet selection to offer an advantage it should win more often than expected by probabilities. Futility?.. Fallacy?..

Kav, why is it futile or a fallacy to believe that a bet selection can give you more wins than the theoretical probabilities would suggest?
I concede that it may be possible to reduce negative variance so that some kind of progression can "work", but how can this be done just by using money management in the first place? To reduce variance you must have a bet selection which, although it may not result in flat bet wins, must shorten the losing runs, at least. So it comes back to bet selection again.
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: Astutillo on May 29, 2019, 11:00:23 AM
I also would add other features as keys to win: short sessions, very low profit target (in terms of units not money), lowest possible exposure.

Both money management and bet selection are keys to win, but for me MM is of paramount importance.
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: MickyP on May 29, 2019, 11:55:10 AM
You have to ask yourself the question; If I base my bet selection on probability (expectation) how can I best use this basis to my advantage?

Money Management is your tool to "manage" a game based on expectation.
By narrowing down a target area based on expectation and using a bet selection less than the entire target area while you still base your game on the expectation of the full target area will give you multiple opportunities to cement a win within the constraints of your bankroll.

Probability or expectation is much like the law of thirds; it's an average measurement with no fixed value in time. With this in mind we can not depend on a hit within one attempt over the range of expectation. But, if we look at say three attempts at the same, the odds of a hit increase. One should study the accuracy of probability and use this information to fashion or fine tune a method. With this information you will qualify your play and you will also know when to back off and play virtually until a hit becomes imminent.

The problem with most players is that they want to or have to play every spin.
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: fiben7 on May 29, 2019, 11:59:07 AM

By narrowing down a target area based on expectation and using a bet selection less than the entire target area while you still base your game on the expectation of the full target area will give you multiple opportunities to cement a win within the constraints of your bankroll.


Excellent phrase MickyP!
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: Third on May 29, 2019, 12:24:34 PM
I'm happy with the stated probability of my selection and I craft my wagering plan around it; no need to tie myself in knots in trying to bend probability.  All I need to do is to survive until positive variance provides my profit; I simply bet where positive variance is known to exist and hope for the best.  I keep my expenses as low as possible by using a flat betting progression. :D
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: UnlikelySam on May 29, 2019, 01:43:56 PM
Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win? (https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php/topic,2802.0.html)

The more i give this thought the more I realize for me the answer is Both... Yes both... Let's put this in perspective ; what's the use of having a proper bet selection if you cannot manage your money (BR) effectively. Imagine a CEO or manager of a company who hasn't the foggiest idea on how to run a company or how to manage the allocated budgets for each of the business's daily needs. How long really would it take for the company to hit rock bottom...

A larger than needed BR with the ideology of aiming for small wins each session coupled with a proper bet selection leaves you somewhat "invincible"..  Once again imagine going to battle with 100 000 soldiers and your enemy only have 100 under their wing...

Regards

Sam...
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: Astutillo on May 29, 2019, 03:35:27 PM

A larger than needed BR with the ideology of aiming for small wins each session coupled with a proper bet selection leaves you somewhat "invincible"

I guess its not so easy and straightforward.

With a larger bankroll you are supposed to implement a negative progression at a certain point if things go wrong. And with a negative progression you never know how things can worsen.

Flat betting with a larger BR has small sense to me, cause if you reach a point of no return a negative progression, mild or steep, should be implemented to recover.

To me small profit target requires low exposure and a solid, smartly calculated stop loss limit.
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: UnlikelySam on May 29, 2019, 04:04:10 PM
Unfortunately Roulette variance is never straight forward and Murphy's Law sometimes prevails all too often...

The problem with a negative progression at times it can be misleading by concealing the flaws in a system like " blinkers " even deceive you into thinking you have an edge ... Don't get me wrong I do use a negative progression when needed for a recovery process but cautiously so as not to land in the deep end of things. The reason I mentioned a proper bet selection so as not to leave yourself completely vulnerable ( exposed)  to variance when it strikes at the most inopportune moment.

Ok let's take a BR of 1000 units and your aim is to make 10 units a session ; how impossible would that really be ? You can play 20 sessions etc etc if needs be - "playing it safe" aiming for small wins... Unfortunately that's not everyone's cup of tea... Some will want to only profit largely most of the time and sometimes will succumb to the Game unfortunately due to far too much unnecessary exposure... The game is difficult as it stands with the house edge ; unfair payouts ratios etc - why make it even easier for them...

Regards

Sam...
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: MrPerfect. on May 29, 2019, 06:41:27 PM
If someone wants biggest money take possible,  there is one way only. Flat bet to the table maximum. This is what makes most money on positive bet selection.
   If someone  ( like me) do not want to risk maximum, he implements positive progression and starts slow ( minimum) to risk minimum egainst more time into the game to achieve betting on the table maximum.
   Goal of betting is flat bet to the table maximum. Player starts there, or starts below ( more time ), final point should be same... bet flat to the table maximum.
   All other ideas about the subject is lack of understanding in basic math. Who thinks different,  they should educate themselves about this game.
   If bet selection is not positive,  there is no way you will win on the long run. And long run is now. This present moment. If you are betting, you are there, your betting activity is a part of long run. 
   There is no way to win on negative expectations game, you turn odds to your side or you lose. Chose wisely.   
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: scepticus on May 29, 2019, 09:08:19 PM
There seems confusion about Progressions and Money Management .They are  not the same . Money Management can be used with Bet Selection. I am surprised that anyone thinks otherwise .
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: Third on May 30, 2019, 07:40:18 AM
Even Mr. Perfect has to lose!  :P
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: MrPerfect. on May 30, 2019, 03:20:59 PM
I'm not a roulette god or something. I'm just a humble AP...  Everyone can lose. As long as it not become an habit,  it's fine. Next time player pay more attention. 
  Loses,if they provoke rage, are good. Nothing sharps player mind more then a loss. I play one wheel online now..  it is in my local casino and suddenly became available online, imagine!!!
   I used to feed money l won on other wheels to this one during many month, before it obligated me to evolve. Before l could not beat it face to face, now l kill it online. That's the rage lm tolking about.
    If loss makes you evolve as a player, it's a good loss. Player should search to understand why he lose everytime it happens.  If you missed a spin, you need to know ( clearly see ) why... if not, there is no chance to become a winner at the end.   
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: Third on May 30, 2019, 04:14:44 PM
I wouldn't say "rage", but ya my emotions are definitely all aflame after a loss and its amazing but it seems like every time, I learn something new and better.  I think we should always seek inspiration from our losses.
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: scepticus on May 30, 2019, 04:28:33 PM
Losses happen - wins happen -- get used to it  !
If losses upset you then you are clearly a loser .
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: MrPerfect. on May 30, 2019, 04:31:57 PM
If loses do not bother you, then who you are?
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: scepticus on May 30, 2019, 04:44:08 PM
If loses do not bother you, then who you are?
I am ME  ;D
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: Stratege on June 10, 2019, 10:01:06 AM

1) In order for a bet selection to offer an advantage, it should be showing more often than it should. You are actually looking/asking to bend probabilities. The point is that in order for your bet selection to offer an advantage it should win more often than expected by probabilities. Futility?.. Fallacy?..

2) Variance can eliminate any advantage. Even worse, it can make your bet lose for extended periods of time, winning much less than it should. What do you do in this case - go bust?

3) But the worst part of their approach is the dismissal of money management. "Flat bet is the way" they preach. "Money management is the way" I reply.

4) Why look to obtain a minuscule and unrealistic advantage in bet selection and ignore the powerful tool of MM?
Bet selection is important. But not because it can offer a win ratio (risk/reward) advantage. It is important because:
  • can create powerful synergies with the wagering plan
  • maybe it could diminish negative variance

1) Yes, that's right, a selection can show more hits statistically, because it's choosing only some spins on a chance, that's another probability in this case (inside the probability of a chance). But you have to know how to choose spins.

2) An advantageous probability has a lower negative variance. The average line rises, so the negative amplitudes are lower. In a winning selection, we never pursue the game for a long time to finish winning. We abandon the share on a profit or on a loss. Because continuing, it would go back into a completely random game, where it is always the negative variance (+ zero) that will triumph over any bankroll.

3) I assume you're talking about the flat bet that would reject the MM? In fact, those who have found a winning selection in flat bet, will not be able to find a better advantage in progression negative. The only solution is  progression positive. A "MM" with the flat bet will consist of reinvesting its profits to play the chip at 100 then 110 then 120... This is like any speculator on the stock markets.

4) In fact, a tiny advantage must be relatigrable with the height of the bankroll. In flat bet, we don't have thousands of chips. The MM is not ignored, it is rather secondary. Talking about flat bet does not reflect reality, because there is a reinvestment on the one hand of profits, to increase its profits. Two very different paradigms. In flat bet, the priority is on the statistics and the extraction of the spins, the probability of winning is sought over a very short period. With a negative progression, the priority is financial mechanics (changing bets) and the probability of winning is calculated over a long period of time.

PS: we choose a paradigm according to our beliefs (founded or unfounded), our psychology and our skills, to act effectively.
Title: Re: Bet Selection or Money Management is the key to win?
Post by: MrPerfect. on June 11, 2019, 05:30:38 PM
How in this world positive bet selection with negative variance can wipe out a bank? Or someone do not understand concept of the bankroll, or doesn't know how to choose positive bet selection. 
   There are math limits ... probability theory takes care of these. If someone ( like me) can not be bothered to apply these formulas,  they can be seen on graph empirically. 
     Bankroll is to survive 80% of longest negative variance possible.  There gonna be 3 cases... you win first, you lose first , you catch the wave in the middle. 80% protects you from 2 of these and third one is rare event to be really considered about it. There are more things to wipe out bank ( not positive bet selection for example or conditions change).