Roulette Forum

Roulette Forum => Gambling Philosophy => Topic started by: DrTalos on February 11, 2018, 10:32:37 PM

Title: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on February 11, 2018, 10:32:37 PM
Probably I should have done this long ago. Probably because of my laziness I followed Reyth thread about my system and gave some hints there, instead of pushing one on my own.
  Here I will provide some thought about how I see the game, how I approach it, how I create my systems (during the years has been many, and even if the vast majority of them were not winning ones, they did taught me lessons, especially about what I should pursue and what was not worthy to be elaborate any further)

Will not be all in one shot. I will post here more and more, try to answer your questions at the best of my possibilities. Because I will not talk about my system, but about ideas in general, I found appropriate to post it in the Philosophy section. Everybody is more than welcome to share their thought on my ideas, as this forum is all about, hoping for courtesy and respect (too much to ask?). I say sorry in advance if some of my ideas are very well known by some players and they get bored by it.

Let's start saying that I do not trust online casinos and RNG. Why? because I think that the first is rigged and the second is just a slot who can determine the outcome accordingly. I do have proof of that? No, I don't. Do I have proof that airball machines or live table are perfectly trustfully? No as well, just seems to me that are harder to manipulate.
  Why this specifications? Because you need to be comfortable playing. If you do not trust the machine, you will fail, you will loose money because you will make the fail to happen. Is a prophecy self-realizing.
  Easy to understand how it works: if there is a strange patterns of outcomes in a live roulette, your mind will see it just a coincidence, while if this happens in a RNG who you fear can be manipulated, you will perceive it has a proof of your worst concerns came into reality.
  Because the psychology of the player is the most important thing in the game, you must start from this.
  Pay attention how much Casinos try to work with your mind and your weaknesses: no clock at the walls, no windows, free drink and stay, very noisy slot machines for winning and bonuses, loud celebration of other people winnings... all is made for you to loose your focus. Even the switch from money to chips, or to tickets, is to help you waste more money: put a twenty dollar bill on a table is way harder than putting a green chips.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: cht on February 12, 2018, 01:49:08 AM
Online live dealer games can have the vidoes manipulated.

Roulette wheels can be manipulated with air jets and magnets.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Reyth on February 12, 2018, 05:18:06 AM
Before I play at an RNG site, I need to know someone that has played successfully there, both winning and withdrawing.  There is a site I would love to play at called Shark Roulette but so far I haven't found anyone I know who plays there...  :'(
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: MickyP on February 12, 2018, 09:16:18 AM
A players mindset is important. Players enjoy a fast game and are thus drawn to RNG and Airball. What makes it more welcoming is the low chip value. A loss is no big deal when playing with 0.01 value chips. However, small losses add up to big losses. I don't mind the pace of a B/M table. The minimum chip value makes me more focused on winning. The game is taken more seriously in this regard.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: palestis on February 12, 2018, 09:46:39 AM
If you lose with pennies in an RNG online casino it's not a problem as far as amount lost.
But psychologically it is a problem if you play the same system the same way with higher chips  in a B+M casino.
Winning everywhere adds confidence to the system. You want the system to win no matter where you play it.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Jesper on February 12, 2018, 10:31:18 AM
The method of play is very different at low units rng. The total bet on the table can be rather high, and span more spins. On line is rapid, so it is time, chip value low so there is bankroll.  Many methods suitable on line will for several reason not working well at a BM casino.  We talk about 300 spins an hour comparing to 40-90. If we like to use progressions it is possible to stand longer losing with a reasonable bankroll.  With low values every win is normal lower, but the speed compensate. And there is overhead cost if the BM casino is not next door.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on February 12, 2018, 01:05:21 PM
At a certain point, I stumble across the Monty Hall Problem. A brief summary for who do not know it.

You have three doors. Behind one you have a car, the other two have a goat.
  You pick a door. After your pick one of the other door is revealed, showing a goat.
  Now the question is: you stay with your pick or you switch to the other unopened door?
Here's the paradox. If you switch, you win 50% of the time, while if you stay with your original pick you will win just 1/3 of the time.

It is counter intuitive, but it is easy to understand how it works. If you switch you choose among two, if you don't you stick with your choice among three.

Now, how I used it in my system making process? Bet selection.
  I started working on columns and dozens, because my simple mind found it perfectly fit with the three door option. One of the three dozen will be late, will become sooner or later a sleeper, so I will not bet on it.
  I tried several time to work on repeater or on casual selection, and I always found the the repeater will have a shorter session then a casual one, or way shorter if you compare with a cold one.
  In the last situation, you chase the sleeper, and sure as hell you'll find it, destroying your bankroll.

So, what I found out many years ago is to work with repeaters, no matter if they are single numbers, dozens, corners or whatever.

I will post in the system section the system originated with this thinking. Was very profitable for a long time, especially with a tweak I made later on.

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Jesper on February 12, 2018, 05:34:41 PM
Dr Talos may come to show something, but use a lot of space and bandwidth in a lot vague long and repeated posts, making a long thread.  Check what use to be!

Please analyse the posts, it can sounds great, but vague and say very little.

I do make systems and explain it straight away!!
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Reyth on February 12, 2018, 05:53:28 PM
I like his style.  He gets me thinking.  I hope he keeps posting in any way he wants.

(https://cdn.meme.am/instances/28108925/please-dont-hate-me.jpg)

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on February 12, 2018, 07:41:03 PM
hmmm,

i don’t see how conditional probabilities apply with random INDÉPENDANT roulette outcomes. In the monty hall problem we know for sure there’s 2 goats and a car, that’s fixed data in the current game. how it can be applied between random roulette spins it can’t. I’m no a probabilistic specialist and it was a very difficult but interestic material and brain disturbing at the faculty but maybe some math specialist can emphasis this more ?

About the topic of RNG i don’t trust RNG for me they are programmed to give a ratio between in/out at the end of the month and i would be very against playing any progression on RNG. They can be like slots machine give what you want when the ratio is on your favour or produce any number to keep the HE of the bank. At the end even if they can prove the numbers are random they are probably not in term of money waged. It’s so easy to play on that and program it as well. You can win at the rate they fixed like any slot. That’s my idea about how it works.
For live online spins i’m quite confident they are fair for some like immersive or unibet live tv streamed with hundreds people playing at the same time so how can they manipulate that or the video ? Furthermore even if they can cheat players at high stakes it will be maybe for my benefit no? the only problems i experienced sometimes and it pissed me of is some technical sudden problems and your bets are refused. you re in a middle of a progression and your number hit at that moment. i had some experiences like that and i don’t put any money on unreliable streams sites.

kind regards,

jerome
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: TheGenner on February 12, 2018, 08:00:39 PM
If you discount a dozen/column which is a sleeper for arguments sake, you are then left with either 2 dozens or columns representing 50% each. So regardless if you change from one to the other, you still have 50%. Where as with 'Monty Hall' you are always starting off with 3 options. I just don't see how this could work well with roulette. There are a lot of these type of conundrums which on the face of it look like they could provide some kind of opportunity in roulette. ie..birthday paradox, monty hall, pidgeonhole principle...etc... One of my favourite writers and a solid 'math's guy  "Ion Saliu" states none of them can work and explains why on some of the pages on his site.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: scepticus on February 13, 2018, 01:45:22 AM
I think the solution of the Monty Hall problem is that;
In the first instance you have a choice of 1 from 3
After Monty opens a box there are now 2 choices
Intuitively we think we now have a 1 in 2 chance so stick with our original choice.
The Probabalist  would reason that initially you had 2 against your choice . The opening of one box only means that only one of your opponents has left the fray - so you should change.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: scepticus on February 13, 2018, 02:23:23 AM
I was so intrigued with Dr Talos approach that I used Scoblete's single zero spins in his book Spin Roulette Gold .
First 7 won followed by 6 consecutive losses followed by another 1 win - for a 10 point profit !
Might be worth pursuing  !
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on February 13, 2018, 03:00:15 AM
I did not say that the paradox can be of any use in the roulette game. What this thread is about is how I make my system, where I can find ideas and how I apply those. I hope this can help someone expanding a little bit his way of face the challenge.
  I am not a mathematician, so I need a different approach. I always find more interesting working with oblique thinking, like one of the guy I admire most, and about who I will talk in the next post: Edward De Bono.
 
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Reyth on February 13, 2018, 05:20:23 AM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/3o7bu30PETF0az99Ic/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: scepticus on February 13, 2018, 03:48:30 PM
I think his Monty Hall idea is more worthwhile than his Sleeping Dozen idea which is as " Old as The Hills ".
As he says his mission is to stimulate thought .   
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on February 15, 2018, 09:04:55 PM
De Bono gives a lot of good approaches of thinking, despite the subject, and I always thought should have been taught at school.
  He is famous for a couple of technics (thinking hats and parallel thinking) and a bunch of experiment. I wanna talk about one of the latter.

De Bono grouped a bunch of high school student in a room, with a task to accomplish: they have to cross the room from one door to another without touching the floor and in the least amount of time. He gave them wooden boards, ropes, a ball, few other objects.
  All of them tight boards on their feet, and they walked to the other side. They do the task with similar time.
  Then, he remove objects till one boards and twigs left. The solution was using one board and jump to the other side. The time used was considerably less, but no one thought of this solution at the beginning. Why?

Because our mind try to use all is in his availability. If it doesn't, mind thinks to loose options.
  How can I use this in my systems? Taking out options. I do an example.

I never wanted to use a huge bankroll. Back in my days you do not have all the options we got today (online, airball machine, rng), so if you wanna play you have to walk to a table where the minimum chip value was 10 Dollars (was 10.000 lire in Venice, I "translated" to be more clear), and if you plan to have a bankroll of 2000 units you need to bring 20000 dollars with you. Not possible. Moreover, I am quite emotional, and betting 3/4 hundreds bucks in a twin, for example, is just not me.
  So, my first rule was fix a limit of the bankroll needed for a system. I fixed 500, with a system that ask for 250 units (I always consider that I will need double the amount my testing shows, for good measure).
  Now, 250 units for a working system seems very low. In this site you can find many system who requires dozen of thousands to work (I understand you can play with 0.1 cents, but still).
  Believe it or not, I found many system that keep working with this limits. Not all of them good system, but on the other hand have a bigger bankroll don't grant you any more success.
  On the side, let's put the situation where the machine broke, or you have to leave the game for any reason. What you loose is not a big deal, you can easily gain back it the next day.

I set many other limits to my game, but this is just to express the concept. Set limits, especially in areas you fill not confortable with (never play single numbers, or play just single numbers, you name what) and you will be surprise how your mind can find solutions.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Reyth on February 16, 2018, 05:27:07 AM
Aha.  So lets say we are using a parachute methodology by using bet selection to increase our payouts as our debt is rising BUT we don't want to go farther than DS inward.  So what do we do when our debt rises again and we are on a DS?

So what about playing 2 DS that are adjacent, sharing a street between them (9 total numbers) and relying upon that street to hit and pay off the debt?

Just a demonstration of how a new idea can be created when we apply Bono's principle of removing options. :)
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: MickyP on February 16, 2018, 06:45:45 AM
Exercising control over your game by adhering to limits you have set for yourself is key, not only when losing but when winning too.

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on February 16, 2018, 02:43:55 PM
One of the limits I think work best is the number of spin for session.
  Let say we wanna play for 10 spins. We need to find a solution to have a profitable session with just this few outcomes. We have to play more number than less, for example, and with a tight aggressive approach.
  On the other hand, it is hard that things goes out of hands, that the bankroll needed is relevant, and that the boring aspect of play a system implies: you play a little and then take a walk.

My system is not like that. I don't care how much it last, important is it ends up positive. Most of the sessions are quite short, but sometimes happen to wait 50/60 spins to end it.
  One of the limit is "no stop loss". If it will fail, I will sink with it. To make the system working, I need to keep the balance throughout the game at the low possible level.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Jesper on February 16, 2018, 06:20:41 PM
Short stoploss will delay the ruin. We must allways find a new high. Today or tomorrow. The door out  from the casino will not help. Stop while a head means not much. We must stay a head in  much longer than a week!  Virtual bets helps a lot  by time just.  The life game are not the short run, which can win. Stop forever on plus or die at that is the winner.

A large bankroll keep us longer, to a price when the bad of the bad happens, THEN can a stop loss save.

A random game is about luck!! We can do some but not much.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Reyth on February 16, 2018, 07:45:27 PM
When a stop loss saves us, we better be ready to come back even stronger!
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: MickyP on February 16, 2018, 07:54:14 PM
Jesper, you make valid points that are most definitely debatable.

I hope I've understood you correctly regarding stop loss. You say it just delays ruin. The same for virtual betting ; you say it only buys you time.
I disagree.
You go on to say that a stop loss can save you from the "bad of the bad" (the run from hell. A long losing streak).
I agree.
No player will know when the run from hell starts or when it will end. X number of loses when using a normally winning method must indicate to stop play and resume when conditions improve.

DrTalos, you say one of the limits is no stop loss. You will play and sink with your ship. Why do you believe that a stop loss should not be used?

These are my thoughts on this issue. The majority of players do not have what they would consider a holy grail method. DrTalos, you are in the minority that indicate that you have a consistently winning method. To set parameters on play based on the ultimate method; I think is setting a high standard but it does compel us to think more intensely about our approach to the game.
I have found progressions, triggers and stop loss to work in my favour when I play. I also only play short games. I have rules that govern my play.
Your posts are very thought provoking and I welcome what you have to say because you challenge the blueprint of my game.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on February 16, 2018, 09:05:09 PM
As you sure remember, MickyP, I wrote about the psychology of the player, and how must be the first value to be protected and improved.
  For my way of being, a system that "sometimes" loses break any confidence I have in the system. I cannot play it any further, no matter if I have won tons before. I am just out of that game.
  Every little bad bounce of the ball, every longer session, every situation that before the loss would have been just normal routine, in my eyes would became just steps to the inevitable second loss, and then third...

As for any technics (stop loss, virtual betting, trigger, VB) I cannot say one is bad and one is good. I have too much respect for everyone trying to find his way. Because the approach of the game is personal, you must understand what fits your persona and what does not. The 4 I mentioned above are not my style. Is not my style rely on single number (like a lucky magical spin that resolves the game).
  I prefer to have a session that is always possible to be closed in few shots, and if not happens nothing wrong and just keeps the negative low, so to wait few more spins and wait for your numbers to hit. Sooner or later will happen, is not possible otherwise.
  I think progression is important (but not the most important) and I use it. There are some other concepts quite useful, but I am sure not for everybody.
  That why I do not want to give easy recipes (after all, I have just one, my system, and I am not planning to reveal it), but food for thought, hoping someone can get a benefit from it.

 
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on February 20, 2018, 02:19:55 PM
Lateral thinking helped you to elaborate your system ? I mean one day you said you had to forgot all bs that you learned before and lead to not working system and start from scratch. Do you use pigeonhole mind process for example to elaborate your systems ?

jerome.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Sputnik on February 20, 2018, 05:35:32 PM


Jerome i will give you one advice - skip it or embrace it

I play casino games and horse race and sport betting - the last one i know nothing about or should i say i am just learning

Now i will compare my way learning sport betting and your way learning to play roulette with this topic among other things you read on this forum board

The first and biggest difference is that i learn something when you only get nonsense and worthless hints
I learn from some one who can pick 60% winners betting sports and he teach me the principal doing the same thing by my self - so one day i can stand by my self and pick 60% winners

The other big difference is that i make money during my learning period and you earn nothing then empty words
I get return of investment better then the stockmarket during my time study the sport betting game

So if you want to be a gambler and learn and master a wider spread of skills i would recommend sport betting
Is not for everyone

Now this is what i have to say about roulette and how silly things can become - you can for example see one topic with 50 thousands views and think WOW there has to be something special about this method - then when you read the topic you see that there is one selection method and one progression

It get worse - you start to read members making money playing the method and no one has reported serious drawdowns - so you might start think this is the sure thing for me - i also want to make money with this metod like other members

This is how you would look at the situation and ask you the following question - what selection method would not win using that kind of progression - almost every existing method based upon similar principal would make money - how many placed bets has been made of each member - not many as they count how many spins they have played - no wonder the system still hold up when they pass 3000 spins with 60 placed bets

A selection metod and a staking plan make no one a winner at the table
The mental strength is the key with good understanding of the game

To become a full time gambler is hard work - for example is not easy to call America each day to get picks when is bed time in my country and it takes a hour to understand all the lingo explaining the picks and 30 minutes more to make the placements.

That is only one side of the daily routine.
Then you might play online on regular basis and go to you local casino each weekend and some regular days during the week.
So you wanna be a gambler - well be ready to handle the mental stress and never try to win back a lost bet
Is a seven day a week job.

One last thing - ask members who been visiting gambling forum boards for ten years of more the following question - have you ever seen one single winning method during your years browsing gambling boards and have you ever learn to become a better gambler reading about hints from others who never explain a method step by step - forget it no need to ask the answer is No

This is not a hint is facts that you self become a winner when you discover what it really takes to become a winner - time to make  reality check

Cheers
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on February 20, 2018, 09:09:03 PM
Do not work like that, Jerome.
  You are used to a way of thinking, using what you learned or your personal inclination, and they became a part of you.
  At the beginning, you use rules (set limits, think in a original way, if something seem obvious discharge), and after a while becomes an habit.
  I cannot trace back the full thought process that brought me here, at my system. Didn't come to me in a single shot, but the basic idea is exactly as it was. What changed was some tweaks, some improvements, that came in several attemps and during time.

What I suggest is to keep a clean approach. It doesn't matter if people says is not possible. Sure is not easy. Skipping the search because someone says to you you will never reach it, it is silly.
  Are they so sure to have all the answers, all the knowledge? They have not. Do not matter how many years of experience they claim, what PhD or piece of paper they hang on their wall. If they say "Cannot be done" just smile and walk your way. The world is full of people ready to tell you you cannot get what they are not able to get.

My system is bulletproof. It is 4 years that is bulletproof. Have gone through live dealer and airball machine, and never failed. They say is not possible? I see. I will think of them every time I walk to the bank.
All suggestions and technics I post here will make you create a winning system? I do not know. I try to give you the best options, and tools, I have to get that result. Now is up to you.
  There are 2/3 little things to add, and than I will leave room for your questions if you have some.
 
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: TheGenner on February 20, 2018, 09:54:12 PM


One last thing - ask members who been visiting gambling forum boards for ten years of more the following question - have you ever seen one single winning method during your years browsing gambling boards and have you ever learn to become a better gambler reading about hints from others who never explain a method step by step - forget it no need to ask the answer is No


Sputnik, I would say you are right 95% here, but not 100%. Someone who has read the forums for a long time can develop a 6th sense for who plays and has walked the path against someone who is full of blarney. I can honestly say I have learned a lot from two such forum members in nearly 15 years, so yes, it is like finding a needle in a haystack, yet not impossible.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: cht on February 20, 2018, 10:15:16 PM
DrTalos,  what use is your claim if you have no plans to share it ?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Reyth on February 20, 2018, 10:26:07 PM
@Cht, see  this thread as he has claimed and shared quite a bit:

https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=1252.msg17972#msg17972
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on February 22, 2018, 12:16:42 AM
Every system should be built around a target.
  What the target is doesn't really matter, and the designation of a target is on player shoulder, rely on his experience and his way to see the game.
  Who spent some time at the roulette wheel, sure noticed something that can be used as a target, for example the four repetition of the same dozen.

Let's say we accept this as our target. We do not know when or how frequently this situation occurs, but we reasonably believe that happens often enough to be a valuable information, and a trustfully target.
  Now we have to build a system on dozen who will end when that target, that situation, shows up. It is just that.

A system must have a single target in mind, not two or three. We try to survive, playing more or less numbers, with progression or flat bet, till the situation we fixed as a target will shows up and close our session for us.
  Sure, there are target more easy to hit, and some more hard. In the first scenario session will be short, and the variance will ask us a lot of faith, while the second can be longer, safer sessions, but at the end shouldn't really matter.

In the system I posted about dozens and column, the target is to have a certain number of repetitions back to back. We need to survive till this sequence becames effective. Here's the tweak I created to get advantage of the target without loosing everything before time.
  After a hit, I usually raise one unit. If hit again, I keep raising, and when I miss the bet decrease of one unit. If hit, the next bet will be the highest bet I reached before plus 1.
  The sequence will look like
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1 hit
  2 hit
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1 hit
  4 hit
  5 hit
  6
  5
  4 hit
  7

Hope is clear.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: MickyP on March 01, 2018, 07:40:46 PM
I find the manner that you approach system design intriguing. DrTalos you really are an inspiration.

I like the idea of a game with one target but I think having more than one target is not wrong.  There can be a few targets that are played individually within the same game (series of spins). If this is done correctly it could be a profitable way to play.

I understand that you are looking at repeating patterns to determine the target that will run the duration of the game. Trends are possible patterns in the making; why not focus the game on current unfolding trends and have a moving target instead of a static one?

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on March 01, 2018, 10:57:52 PM
Dr Talos, I'm assuming you're method of play starts off with many numbers and goes to few if no hits Like a parachute.  Maybe when it gets to the target numbers, you're change strategy to 2 or more hits in a series of spins to put you in profit.  Guess the specifics all depend on what the target is.

Here's an example of what I'm thinking.  I will use the target of street 12 (34,35,36).  Every bet will include those numbers. 

If win any bet, start over.  If lose go to next step:

1) Bet 1 chip on 5 double streets
2) Bet 1 chip on 5 quads
3) Bet 1 chip on 5 streets
4) Bet 1 chip on 5 splits
5) Bet 1 chip on 5 singles
6) Bet 6 chips on target street 12 for up to 7 spins ( will be a total of 12 spins so far

***most hits will happen in the first 6 steps, if not continue***
7)  Bet target street for 12 more spins...If you get 1 hit, then repeat this step....If you get 2 hits, you're in profit so start over with new target
8.)Same as 7.  Double wager...2 hits in 12 spins will be profit
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on March 02, 2018, 12:00:58 AM
I remember Reyth used an image of a Jellyfish, once, for one of his project/system. That was an appropriate image for my system. I don't play a decreasing amount of number, but the total of them, and the way of it, changes during the game, accordingly to the situation I am in.
  This flexibility is part of the success of my system, I think.

I don't think there is nothing conceptually wrong in targeting more than a situation, but is not my way of thinking. I work better when I have just one enemy to defeat, just a single situation to occur, than multiple options sometimes conflicting one another. As I said, this is my way to think about systems. I am happy if gives anybody options and thoughts.
  The example I gave was just an example. You can have a target completely different, a situation that fits more your way to play. My intentions was suggesting an approach, not a declared path.
  A moving target is still a target, so I don't see anything wrong in it.

Now, what differs my system with others I made is that this one works without flaws since 2012/2013 (was that winter, I don't remember exactly the first day I played it). And I think the difference is because I exploited a weakness of the game (a philosophical, structural weakness, not a mathematical one... Or maybe even a mathematical one, I do not know because my math skill is not so great).
  You need to find a concept original, maybe absurd, and put it to test, because in the last few centuries many attacked the game and lost, so you can consider that all the "basic" principles are already been used. Adding numbers, law of the third, fibonacci progression, negative or positive progression... You name it. They are all been tested and failed.
  What you wanna find is a undiscovered chart, a hidden passage. Something that take advantage of a rule you are not aware of. Is like the guy who tried to invent the strongest glue ever, and created post-it, the barely adhesive piece of paper, so exactly the opposite of what he was looking for. He made his fortune. Will you consider this a success, or a failure?

Avoid the simple solutions, go original, go crazy, brainstorming. This is my advice, this is my philosophy.

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: kav on March 06, 2018, 03:07:54 AM
This topic is for Talos to share his thought process and answer questions - without interruptions.
The debate about revealing his system etc., has been moved here (https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=2218.0)
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Reyth on March 06, 2018, 08:47:47 AM
Awesome!  I will also moderate this thread! :D
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: kav on March 06, 2018, 10:12:47 PM
Bumped, so people can see this is still active.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on March 31, 2018, 01:57:54 PM
I mention in another thread that systems, in my opinion, are a 2 parts thing. The first is the basic concept of the system, like bet selection, progression if is the case, triggers... The idea the system is built on.
  As an example, consider a system that targets neighbors. You bet on the coldest number and the 2 pockets close to it, with the assumption that if the target number is getting cold is because the pockets near him are collecting tons of hits (is an idea as good as any).
  Cover five numbers with a flat bet for seven spins costs you 35 units. If we do a progression, we can go for 3 more spins, and the bankroll needed si 65 units. Let go to x3 and add two more spins. Total now is 95. One more, x4, means two more spins, -135. x5, one spin, -160.
  At this point, we played 75 numbers total. Because of how things work in roulette, we didn't get a hit. We need to recover that negative balance.
  This is the crucial point. We cannot relay on putting more and more money. At a certain point the request of cash will be unbearable, of for table limits or for our pockets. Many people decide to go a little further, invest like 1000 units and if doesn't ends well, well, register a bad day.
  Others fix a stop loss, considering that the vast majority of game will end in the first 15 spins. The amount won will compensate the bad loss. And if you select what to play, with triggers and red flags, you can do it.

As you already know, I don't think that wheel has memory. I think that previous spins have zero influence on next spins. Every time I can't see clearly the subject of my study I step back, and I try to observe from a distance.
  Wheel has rules, but roulette rules works only on big numbers. Casinos rely on that. Many many players, some will win and some will lose. Because they pay less of what is mathematically fair, at the end they will win (I know, HE, common knowledge). I think also we can use roulette rules against it. There is no a strong point that is in the same way a point of weakness. Tao, Yin/Yang. Night comprehend day, and day comprehend night. Good has a drop of evil, and the other way around.
  I am digressing, as always.

So, back to recovery.
  You can be aggressive, considering that what has not happen yet will have to happen soon (a sort of GF), and attack the wheel with knife in your teeth, that can be reducing numbers played, increasing bet, a mix of the two...
  Or diversion, switch completely "system" and play the hottest one, or chasing a repeater, with a reduced progression so to wait more than one hit to solve the game.
  Or whatever you may think of.

What I wanna point out is that the recovery must be the core of any system. No matter what system you use, you will need to recover your balance at some point.

When I did Bertrand, I made for levels of recovery. During the years, I never used the fourth, so I redesigned the system to get a little advantage at the beginning of the session. I found out that will never happen to bet more than two thousands numbers to fall in the 1/60 ratio the system is built upon.
  Now, my first four bets are
1 units EC
2 units EC
2 units DZ
3 units DZ

This informations is useless, IMO. I played 60 numbers, with 8 units total, and a good percent of games are already closed with a winning of a single unit. Is at this point that I start recover? No, the basic system proceeds (and is not that hard understand how).
  But, what I wanna point out, is that this is a good statistical start, nothing more. You can have better, I have better.
  We need to set the basic system in a way to avoid the recovery be impossible. This is a very important concept.
  If I have a system that ends well in 98% of games, but if not I have a balance of 1200 units to recover, unfortunately there is no recover able to regain that (if there is, play directly the recover).
 
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: MickyP on March 31, 2018, 03:19:27 PM
DrTalos, looking at your first four bets the hit rate should potentially be very good. The recovery is the secret ingredient to recover losses and register a win. Is the first step of a progression and all steps thereafter used in a system not also a recovery tool? Progressions have a built in recovery plan that recoup losses and registers a win as well.
My main question is... Is your recovery a different system all together? In other words you have a standard 4/5 step system and at a loss you begin the recovery which is a different system. Each level of recovery is a different system.
Am I even close to understanding the recovery plan?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on March 31, 2018, 04:30:23 PM
Dr Talos, this method is similar to what I was describing earlier that I play sometimes.  It's a bit of a grind but works pretty well.  Basically, with 5 units I start with 5 double streets, and if no hit them cover 5 quads.  If no hit, then 5 streets.  If no hit, then 5 splits.  Usually hit in the first level of doing this before I get to 5 singles.  Parachute progression reducing numbers played with higher payouts.

If I get down to 5 singles with no hit, I'll change to a different strategy altogether.  Now, I might just play 3 numbers for 12 spins...this time I'm looking for 2 hits in 12 spins for recovery
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on March 31, 2018, 04:47:56 PM
You all shouldn't focus on this. Is the recover the beating heart of every system.
  The difference between a system and a recovery is that the system needs a single hit to end a session, while recovery implies several hits to go back to normal expectations, and so to get a profit.
  For the recovery to have a chance of a success must have few units to recover, and rely on a situation that "must" occur.

The recovery and the system should be, in my opinion, a different way to grab the same target. As you can see, my first 4 spins cover the 1/60 ratio. The rest of the system push a little bit forward to a worst ratio than that. If I do not hit, the recovery kicks in, and in the recovery I need to reach that ratio (or close. If I have three hits in a row, even when the game is way far from the starting point, because of progression I can close the session with a ratio of 1/70, for example).
  The trick is to keep exposition low, to keep your numbers (as a negative balance) as little as possible.
  As I said, at this point combinations (street, double street, splits...) are not the same.

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on March 31, 2018, 05:08:19 PM
I get what you're saying and I think it is a good way to start.  So, at the beginning of the game you play a system that is most likely to hit probably 90% of the time.  In your example you played even bets twice, followed by dozen bets twice.  Invested 8 units and covered 60 numbers.  So now the recovery is based on hits coming sooner in clusters.  Maybe change strategy to betting a quad for 9 spins, or a street for 12 spins...pretty much play less numbers for more spins but trying to catch 2 or more wins. 

This is how I play a lot.  Start with a system that wins most of the time in the first 4 to 5 bets.  If I do get a loss, my recovery is to bet fewer numbers looking for 2 or more hits ( like 3 numbers in 12 spins, trying to catch at least 2 hits in 12 spins).  When playing fewer numbers, I always pick recent repeaters
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: GIAJJENNO on March 31, 2018, 05:22:57 PM
It is a good system to play for one unit when the negative gap can reach -90 or -243? And the recover the -93 for hours? Then why dont you play the recover system like a winning system?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: MickyP on March 31, 2018, 05:40:42 PM
Scarface, you put my rambling in order; thanks.

It appears that the main system is the cash cow and the recovery is the grass that feeds the cow.
This leads to another question; is pure recovery not chasing losses?
I do understand that there are four levels of recovery and DrTalos you have not had to use the fourth level so the recovery must have a strong bet selection. If the recovery requires a few wins to completion then the payout on a win must be small so I guess perhaps recovery covers more than 18 numbers. Here again I could be wrong.
I'd like to hear more opinions on recovery.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on March 31, 2018, 05:41:57 PM
Giajjenno, if you read what I wrote, and read carefully, you will find answers to your questions...

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on March 31, 2018, 05:44:47 PM
Scarface, those are the first 4 bets of the system, not the whole system.
  Recovery must rely on bigger picture than the system, or it will not work. When you bet, you are changing your statistics, your probability, your chances. You all have to understand this.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on March 31, 2018, 06:11:29 PM
I understand this is not the whole system.  I was just saying that your recovery will rely on betting fewer numbers hoping for multiple hits
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on March 31, 2018, 06:26:18 PM
MrTalos,

i’m discovering the last posts of this topic and i’m really surprised by your first 4 bets in fact. But i suppose it’s because you changed your game to made it more agressive and fast. When we discussed at the beginning it was very clear your system was EC first 2 bets then 24 numbers until a hit so after ten bets without a hit you played 228 numbers for a balance of -93. I suppose your balance is not the same anymore with these changes now... anyway it seems more logical now for me the way the first 4 bets are even if playing 24 numbers starting spin 3 increase drastically the chance to catch an early hit ... but at the price of a worse balance ratio to recover if it miss. Anyway the philosophy of the two parts of your system i understand it since a long time i think and for sure the trick is the recover part. If we think about that compared to a martingale with one hit closing the game we can’t really say your bertrand is a true HG (in fact it is for me cause it’s my definition of a system win) with one hit closing the game every time. A very important aspect in your system and it’s maybe the most important part to catch is to get this first and second hit at a moment and not after 30 spins. Playing a normal parachute ec then dz then ds then street then split then straight you can really go sometimes to 30 spins with no hits, that’s the hard part if you are on a ‘cold’ section. For that i was always thinking playing a parachute whith random selection could be more effective than selecting or stick on the same. For this reason i can’t imagine you play only 3 numbers or a single street in your system cause you can be unlucky to be on a street that can miss 100 times. I suppose you have a trick as well to accelerate the game after a first or second hit. There’s a concept i have difficult to apprehend in your system is the total numbers played you rely on. For me playing 24 numbers ten times is not the same as playing 240 times a single number. But maybe it can work cause one rule is that you’re less explosed on HE playing x times for the same amount at the end than only one big bet. And sure that playing last dozen is not the same as playing last 2 DS or playing last 4 Streets or playing last 6 splits or last 12 numbers.

many more ideas to work around i’ve to admit, thanks for the update. 

jerome
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on March 31, 2018, 10:23:49 PM
For me playing 24 numbers ten times is not the same as playing 240 times a single number.

I touched on this in my thread about playing few numbers.  Both have the same house edge working against, but I think fewer numbers give a lot more opportunities to recover.

We can bet $24 a spin for 24 numbers for ten spins.  Or bet $1 a number for 240 spins.  Both have the potential to lose $240.  But betting the single for 240 spins has the potential to win a lot more....it could hit 20 times. 

I wouldn't bet singles because the game would be way to long.  But 2 to 6 numbers would be good for recovery.

I do agree with Talos, betting a lot of numbers in the beginning.  But I think betting fewer numbers for more spins would be a good recovery without having to go crazy with progressions
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on March 31, 2018, 11:02:55 PM
Last two posts are exactly the reason why I started write here in the first place: to encourage discussion on a different approach against the wheel. We all know the classic strategies, we need a refreshing view.
  All the fight against me or Bertrand are simply irrelevant if I will help any of you finding a result. Thank you.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on March 31, 2018, 11:16:43 PM
"All the fight against me" >> Welcome to the wonderful world of......post a method and now, deal with the input. Fun, aint it?

Ken
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on March 31, 2018, 11:23:44 PM
I think is worthy, though.
  And, by the way, I posted a couple of systems that are valuable, if someone take some time to develope them.

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Badger on April 01, 2018, 08:34:08 AM
Dr Talos, thank you for taking the time to give us more ideas.
Your attempts to show us a better way are appreciated although it may not seem so.
Kind regards
Bruce

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 01, 2018, 12:50:20 PM
scarface,

thanks for remembering your post there’s interesting ideas behind this. I think anyway you’re less exposed to HE playing less x times than playing in one time x numbers just because of the fact you can reach your target in less than x in the first case. And if played all you can potentially hit 2-3 more times like you said. So at the end the bets are not the same and you’re less exposed to HE waiting your selection to hit. do you agree about my reasoning or i’m saying something wrong ? The probabilities doesn’t change but you can exploit a ‘weakness’ you’re exposed in the short term HE. Then the deal is to find a good progression to achieve the recovery.

jerome
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: leowls on April 02, 2018, 05:51:13 AM
Thanks DrTalos, the tweak to your dozen/column betting is working amazingly. Though you did not reveal your real system, you left us with some nuggets of tweaks/strategies to get us started to win consistently.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: leowls on April 03, 2018, 04:43:39 AM
DrTalos, I'm very intrigued by your statement. Is there such a situation in roulette?

"For the recovery to have a chance of a success must have few units to recover, and rely on a situation that "must" occur."
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on April 03, 2018, 12:42:12 PM
A situation that must occur can be the outcome of a black number, or one column. It doesn't matter. Your system need a situation to occur. More likely is the situation, more "easy" to get the hit.
 
On a side note: I am receiving too many PM, more than I can handle. Please use posts to ask me about your explorations of systems, or for any simple request. I will be more than happy to respond them.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: GIAJJENNO on April 03, 2018, 12:52:51 PM
DrTalos,

Can I ask to you that how you changed your systen in the first 10 spin? Already play 228 numbers within 10 spins without hit -93 units? Because I read your topics, which all otlf them is around 100+ pages, but you said, that no straight numbers you play, and no EC, than now you play EC, and many of this claims, that I read but after some pages it changed. How is this? Second question, on first 10 spins you play your column/dozen strategy, which is posted in the forum?

Thanks.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: leowls on April 03, 2018, 01:00:44 PM
DrTalos, how I am playing this now is to target the 'Line' that hasn't been hit for the longest amount of spins. Once I have identified it (let's say number 1-6), I begin to bet in the region where that 6 numbers are in. For example, bet 1 and 2 will be placed as Small 1-18. Bet 3-5 will be the 1st dozen and 6-8 will be the Line itself. As long as our Line hit within the first 8 bets, we are either in profits or even. The progression can be further improved but this is a start. The downside to this is the percentage of our numbers being hit decreases as we progress further. Can you give some inputs on how I can improve this or minimize my loses? This progression is just a quick and simple example of how I manage my BR and I will have various of this progression in different levels for recovery. Thanks.

BET          UNITS     TOTAL          PROFIT
1.EC           1         1                    1
2.EC           2         3                    1
3.DZ             2         5                     1
4.DZ             3         8                     1
5.DZ             4         12             0
6.LINE         3         15                 3
7.LINE         3         18            0
8.LINE         4         22             5   
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 03, 2018, 01:58:37 PM
why playing a cold section and not a hot one or random ? I don’t think it makes a big difference at the end ...
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on April 03, 2018, 02:29:52 PM
Giajjenno, I made a softer progression to have a shorter recovery.
  Say "I never said that I play EC" is different than affirm "I never play EC".

Leowls, generally speaking, I don't like a system that has a zero has a profit. Why invest money to go even? And, as I said, the system is not really relevant, is the recovery the key.

Jerome, I strongly believe the bet selection is of no importance.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 03, 2018, 02:58:23 PM
Jerome, I strongly believe the bet selection is of no importance.
i agree with that and it’s maybe the best trap to fall into as a beginner or intermediate. When you do serious studies of many systems repeaters/cold numbers/triggers and so on you have to go to that conclusion. Everybody here arguing the bet selection is matter they don’t have a winning system or not playable. So many times i did simulations with a kind of bet selection and random and they lead to the same at the end, random is maybe at the end more promising in fact. Bet selection has the limitation that is linked to our mindset and what we want or expect to see but the wheel has a different behavior managed by different laws. Finding the gap or manage the gap is maybe the most difficult psychologically.

jerome
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: leowls on April 03, 2018, 03:09:21 PM
DrTalos, the only way to consistently recover the lost money in most spins is to bet more numbers (ideally 24 numbers)...Am I on the right track?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on April 03, 2018, 03:14:13 PM
Leowls, if you think I will guide you to Bertrand, you are wrong...
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: GIAJJENNO on April 03, 2018, 03:50:30 PM
"Please use posts to ask me about your explorations of systems, or for any simple request. I will be more than happy to respond them."

Yes, you are very happy to respond them. Leowls just ask for you one simple question, and your happy respond is that you will not reveal your Bertrand. Yes, we know, after that goes up the claims, that nobady listen t, but Reyo you, everybody is lazy to study,  bt we here sudied your canons, but everything, what you said about numebrs of bets, recovery after 100+ pages, nobady figuered out your system, because all tests went negative, and yet you changed it a little bit for sure. Disappoint, that here in a forum here is a guy with a billionar golden egg HG, and with his claims are soemthing wrong, or not exactly we know, start, how he could play, and if we ask one question, the answer is: if you think I will guide you to Bertrand, you are wrong...then all questions are already unneccessary, because no normal, and explaining answer will come, just hints. Respect for you to your system, but it will not go anywhere, I think. Peace
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: MickyP on April 03, 2018, 04:33:33 PM
It is sad to see grown men grovel, especially due to a lack of understanding and or comprehension.

The title of the thread is not "Follow me to my Bertrand"; it is HOW...DO...I...MAKE...MY...SYSTEMS.
So clear to comprehend the contents of the thread through the title. It says SYSTEMS and not SYSTEM OR BERTRAND.
The idea is learn or try and understand how DrTalos thinks. How he approaches what we all consider impossible. His information is valuable to those able to think, analyse and apply his words to their game.
An example: The changes I made to Palestis single dozen system actually come from Kav and the Kavouras bet. Believe it or not; inspiration or ideas come from paying attention to what the more experienced players have to say.

Please do not ruin this thread for others.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on April 03, 2018, 09:44:38 PM
DrTalos, the only way to consistently recover the lost money in most spins is to bet more numbers (ideally 24 numbers)...Am I on the right track?

I doubt he plays that many numbers.  If he can be down 93 units, he would have to bet 186 units on a 24 number bet to recover in one spin.  And what if it missed?  It can easily miss 5, 10, or more times in a row.  The progression would be crazy high just to break even.

I think he starts with many numbers and parachutes down to less numbers...sometimes relying on 2 or more hits to recover.  I play the same way.  It's not a holy grail, but it's a safe strategy and keeps the minimum bet low as long as possible.

He has said that he plays a playable martingale.  So he's looking for multiple hits to recover, or a parlay
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on April 04, 2018, 03:43:32 AM
I'll try to answer to all questions about systems, developing them and try to go unbeaten roads.
  But, if you ask "what you do after the fifth spin" or, "if i do this, it will be good?" i will not answer. I don't want that you reach my Bertrand, I want you to find your own.
  There is no need to pretend something. I share what I wanna share, and keep for me what I wanna keep. I made this clear from day 1. You like it or not I don't care.
  I keep saying that, in my opinion, is the recovery part the crucial aspect. You can create the best system in the world, but sometime it will happen that your system goes wrong and you need to accept the loss or try to recover it. Because of my mindset I am not able to accept any loss (I barely accept a no profit in very long games when this incidentally happens), so I work on recovery. Can be (the recover section) in as many level as you wish, my suggestion is to keep numbers as low as possible. A recovery means you need more than one hit to end the session, otherwise is just your system streching out.
  And one more thing: the total bankroll needed must be low as well. If you play pennies, 2000 units is not an issue, but if your system works you wanna bring to a casino or at least use a real value, like 5 dollars units. In that case, your bankroll will be a little hard to handle.. imagine 10 or 25$ chips...
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on April 07, 2018, 07:11:58 PM
I have a question.  What is it about your recovery strategy that makes it successful? You don't have to be specific to your system.  Is it playing less numbers with more spins, progression, parlay?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: GIAJJENNO on April 07, 2018, 07:37:47 PM
if you think he will guide you to Bertrand, you are wrong...
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on April 08, 2018, 02:11:33 PM
Scarface, this is something I already answered.  Let's try to tell the long story.
  I couldn't find a way to shorten my recovery, that lasted for so many spins in the early version of one of my system, and so many times I found myself in a situation to be very close to an end that was never to be reached.
  One night, when you recollect all activities you had in your day, and mind start to wander on his own, came to me a sort of an idea. I different way to see the full process of recovery. I was completely awake, excited by the prospective to see the game so differently as I ever did, and I ran in my office to write down the backbone of my idea.
  Was an hour of full immersion. I took out my notepads with my visits at casinos diligently recorded, with all numbers there waiting for the test. And I starting testing the idea I had, and that I call revolutionary since then.
  That was it, something that can work as a recovery but cannot as a system, so I had to build a system that answer to a simple question I had: "the best way to make this weird recovery works is that my system brings me to this condition". And I did, I still do.
  I always improve, with little tweaks, my system, but the backbone of my recovery didn't changed a bit.
  So, to close this thing, here's what it is: a recovery progression that not relies on magical sequences of outcomes, that do not require a huge bankroll, and that is able to recover steadily and efficiently. It's expands and contracts as the games ask to, sometimes betting more numbers, sometimes less, in a way that follow the session I am in.
  The requirement to end is that a certain point I need to reach a ratio of 1/60, roughly, between the hits and the numbers played. I can wait for that. Sometimes I need to play more than 1200 numbers to get 18/20 hits. But, most of the time, 250 numbers are enough to get 4 hits, and close the game.
 
It is tied to that session? Not really. If I am tired I could walk away, have a dinner, go back to the game, in the same or at a different table, an airball machine or a live roulette, and play as I never stopped the session, and it works exactly the same.
  There is no way I will not get that ratio, sooner or later, unless the game is biased (that's why I do not play online). The recovery keeps the balance low, and I have patience. A game at airball can last almost two hours (happens like twice a month), most of the time I finish every session in the first spins.

It is mathematically perfect? No, is not. Theoretically speaking, can burst. But what happens in theory is not what will happen in reality. Does not need to be perfect, needs to work. Is like a car, or a computer: are they perfect machines? They are not, but they do their job.
  My frustration sometimes, here, is that people who relies on math wants that on paper a system is bulletproof. Why? All in our life is not perfect, even the functions of the living body is not perfect. It is balanced between imperfections, and corrects himself with sickness, and aging, and eating and drinking. It is not a robot, but is alive and works, does his tasks.
  The debate about the mathematically impossibility for a system to be an HG it is so silly.
  My recovery, my Bertrand, use the weakness of the game against the game, in a very artistic, creative, way. I found myself in a dead end every time I try to get a perfect, mathematically bulletproof system.
  You know the Wright Brothers? They couldn't make their machines fly. They tried and tried till, frustrated, decided to get rid of the calculation of an engineer, considered at those time the basic reference point for lifting equations (Lilienthal), and start doing things their own way.
  Now, I am not even close to their geniality, but sure I am crazy enough to understand that a pure mathematically approach wouldn't solve the dilemma, so I was in need to find a new approach. That the reason of this thread.

 
 
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 08, 2018, 03:20:02 PM
DrTalos,

it's funny i was about to reply and you just did before and in fact giving partial answers to things i was about to ask.
Sure that to catch the essence of your Bertrand you need to get this weakness and the idea we don't have. Without that everything people can try is worthless for sure. I like this stochastich approach of trying crazy ideas and sure it's the only way we can defeat the game cause like you said trying everything mathematically will lead to a fail or unsustainable progressions.
Recently i explored many ideas linked to the LOTT but like you said in a post after extended studies it appears it doesn't  help as well to solve the game in a positive long term way. Of course it's limitation of mind when we see repeaters we see them everywhere and we think it's the trick cause it's so apparent and when you play a game and see repeaters you can think it's the solution but it's not i'm sure about that, the long spin analysis prove it. What's not very clear for me about your idea is the weakness you're talking about; of course i know it's your very secret ingredient and you will never reveal it; but you talked about something that can be exploited that is "structural"; but maybe it's just the progression itself. The main intriguying thing for me is the fact you have a way to get a hit for sure at a moment, a hit that is due statistically or by another way. If i'm taking back you session dump you posted few months ago it was clear that at a moment at the end of this long game you were playing just few numbers like one street or one split and it's big mystery for me how can you be quite sure to get one guarantee hit on so few numbers in even 20-30 spins not playing hot/cold any selection. Of course i know it's the big deal and if i find it i will have a Reinhart of my own too ;-)
What i don't catch in you way of thinking but it's mathematical it's the way you count the numbers you play and the hits that are due statistically. I would say that 18 random numbers from spin 1 to spin 36 you can expect to be 50% at the end minus the HE, but changing during the game and playing 12 then 6 then 3 numbers is not the same except in you exposition to the HE than an early hit can close the game earlier. Otherwise what's the differnence playing 18 numbers 1 unit each or only 6 numbers 1 unit each 3 times ?
One month ago i worked on a system based on random numbers and it was not working so bad, in fact it was working 95% of the time, i generated a list of 3 random numbers for let's say 100 spins; every spins i played these numbers and i was suprised that it was catching up before spin 30 most of the time and before spin 40 99% of the time. Once i get a bust and decided to forget about it; but it was with a full system progression with one hit making me in one unit plus minimum; i get the idea now to push this system little bit too far to a recovery scheme cause only random can maybe beat random (it's my main obsessional idea since maybe a year now and i'm trying all i can imagine around that idea).

Jérôme

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on April 08, 2018, 03:28:00 PM
Dr Talos, thanks for taking the time to write this up.  Glad you find a strategy that works well for you.  I play a similar way, I think.  I start off with a basic system that wins 90%+ of the time in first couple spins...usually grinding out small profits for awhile. Once it fails, I switch to a completely different strategy for my recovery mode.  I'm sure our style of play are a lot different.  But I think one thing may be similar with our recovery:  at some point it relies on a short cluster of hits, or multiple hits, to recover (as well as safe, small progression).  Sometimes the game can get quite long, and may last for hours, but not too bad if playing airball or stadium roulette where there are more spins an hour compared to a live table
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: leowls on April 08, 2018, 03:33:18 PM
So far the only weaknesses of the wheel I know is the law of large numbers and the law of the third. We can take advantage of both if we have money management like what DrTalos said.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 08, 2018, 04:11:25 PM
Scarface,

i agree with that strategy but the main issue is to be able to gather the hit when you reduce the numbers you are playing. For that reason MrTalos had to implement a modular recovery section otherwise it’s the basic parachute and we know it will bust at some point. when he got a hit he can reduce the numbers he plays and play them for x spins inside the limits he decided or the ratio but when he’s going beyond he necessary raise again the numbers he played to achieve the ‘necessary hit’ to continue the recovery and so on. i don’t see any other possibility....

kind regards

jerome
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on April 08, 2018, 05:21:38 PM
Jerome, I think it can be a double edge sword either way.  If your recovery increases in numbers, then progression can get quite high because payout ratio is lower.  But if recovery decreases in numbers, then you can still have long periods of no hits.   I guess both have drawbacks.  Seems like he may do both.  I personally prefer reducing numbers and try to get 2 or 3 hits in a shorter period of time...usually playing hottie, or sometimes cold number that have recently hit. 

Whatever his method, or any recovery method, it's got to be dependent on variance at some point coming back in your favor...gotta hit a few numbers in close proximity at a higher bet to recover losses

This is why I play hotties, or recent repeaters.  If I reduce my play down to 3 or 4 numbers, it's very rare that hot numbers will suddenly go cold when you start playing them.  If playing 3 numbers for 12 spins, and get no hit, I'll just switch to the most recent repeaters.  With a small progression, and 2 or 3 hits within 12 spins it normally can recover pretty quickly.  I know a 3 or 4 number bet has the potential to go 80 or 100 spins with no hits, but I never see it go that long with repeaters in my experience

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 08, 2018, 06:15:12 PM
ok thanks sono understand you’re playing with the history but DrTalos seems to not care about that. Anyway if you have a working Bertrand it’s the most important at the end. What’s difficult to understand sometimes is why not to play the recovery directly of it’s a guarantee to end in plus at the end ?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on April 08, 2018, 06:20:29 PM
What’s difficult to understand sometimes is why not to play the recovery directly of it’s a guarantee to end in plus at the end ?

I was thinking the same thing.  If history doesn't matter, and moving tables, and it always work...why not make the recovery your system?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 08, 2018, 06:39:01 PM
maybe just question of time and ratio hit/benefit we know already the basic of mrtalos main system and it’s just a parachute of 11-12 spins with one win closing the game and then it’s the recovery main Bertrand trying to recover the loss. sure the main will tank 95% of the time i think. i think the two have different philosophy the main one is to achieve quick gain and the other one just do the status quo (even been -1 is not a big deal)

jerome
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 08, 2018, 06:41:57 PM
One thing that is different playing a street and a ds for example with one street you are playing 1/3 ratio black/red and one regular ds is 1/2... i don’t know if it can help anyway
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 09, 2018, 12:07:17 PM
Jerome, I think it can be a double edge sword either way.  If your recovery increases in numbers, then progression can get quite high because payout ratio is lower.  But if recovery decreases in numbers, then you can still have long periods of no hits.   I guess both have drawbacks.  Seems like he may do both.  I personally prefer reducing numbers and try to get 2 or 3 hits in a shorter period of time...usually playing hottie, or sometimes cold number that have recently hit. 
That’s the big mystery and probably where his revolutionary idea is taking place to be able to recover all the time. Inevitably because he’s not doing any bet selection it’s impssible that he could play and stay at a low number bet and expect a hit forever; if it was the case his system would have bust at a moment for sure. So the only possibility to get a guarantee hit at a moment is to raise again the selection of numbers played to catch the necesssry hit. Even like that the progression should be managed carefully.

jerome
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on April 10, 2018, 01:07:09 AM
The one thing I disagree with Dr Talos is that bet selection doesn't matter.  For the first few years of playing this game, I always picked cold numbers.  If I get a hit, I would move my selection to another cold number.  I lost a lot more than I won...and progressions made it even worse.

Now that I play hot numbers, or repeaters, my win/loss ration has greatly improved.  Normally, when I play for 6+ hours straight, there will always be at least 1 or 2 numbers hitting way more than expectation nearly the whole time...and they are easy to quickly identify.  I use mostly positive progressions now.  I really believe playing repeaters have far less negative variance than other selections.  This bet selection, along with proper money management and progression is what makes a winning system to me
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: GIAJJENNO on April 10, 2018, 01:19:56 AM
Hi Scarface,

How you play exactly hot numbers for hiw many apin and how are you chose the right numbers? What money management do you use to it?

Thanks.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on April 10, 2018, 01:23:18 PM
Hi Scarface,

How you play exactly hot numbers for hiw many apin and how are you chose the right numbers? What money management do you use to it?

Thanks.

I'll pick about 4 hot numbers.  Usually I choose my numbers by the most recent repeaters.  After playing awhile, it's easy to know what's hot without having to track numbers.

So, play 4 hot numbers until a hit.  If no hit in 9 spins, I'll play again for 9 more spins...this time I need 2 hits to break even.  If no hit in 18 spins total, I'll switch to different numbers (always recent repeaters), raise wager by 1 unit and play another 9 spins. 

At some point, you will get 2 or more hits in a 9 spin cycle that will put you back up. 

Sometimes I'll play 3 numbers instead of 4, but use 12 spin cycles

In a nutshell, always play hotties.  If no hit in a cycle, raise water by 1 unit, and play the cycle again. 

If no hit in 2 cycles, always change my bet selection.  If I get a single hit in a cycle, I'll keep the hit number and change the others. 
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Sputnik on April 10, 2018, 02:15:38 PM


 Scarface i like that way you describe the hot numbers, but maybe for other reason.
 If four numbers has not hit within six attempts they are equal even money bet.
 One full cycle for four numbers is nine attempts.
 Anything that pass this amount of attempts should be equal a cold numbers for the reason i describe above.
 My opinion.

 Cheers
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 10, 2018, 02:26:18 PM
Scarface,

during your 9 cycle do you refresh when a new number becomes repeater or do you stay with the initial 4 for the full 9 spins cycle ?

jerome.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on April 10, 2018, 03:17:09 PM
Scarface, what I said is, if your choice of number is random, makes no  difference of the outcome of Bertrand. You can have a better selection, maybe, but is not what I rely on. Whatever people thinks, I rely on math, I rely on achieving my ratio.
  I usually play not much spins, so cold or hot numbers have Short time to develop their "nature". In longer systems, meaning systems that can usually last many more spins, can be useful have a tighter bet selection.
 
I read a lot of good points in the last posts here, and many good thoughts. That is very reassuring.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 10, 2018, 03:56:12 PM
MrTalos,

if i can permit to ask you what’s the reason you changed your main system (not the recovery) compared to the initial one that you published 2 years ago ? i mean your main system not the recovery. The only reason i see is to lower even more the final balance of your main system and so make the recover faster with larger units size right ? Initially you played EC the two first spins and then 24 numbers but now it’s 2 times EC then dozen. I’m just wondering the reasons that pushed you in that direction.

kind regards,

jerome.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on April 10, 2018, 03:57:18 PM
Jerome,

I stay with same 4 numbers for full 9 spins. 
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on April 10, 2018, 06:52:56 PM
Jerome you are right
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on April 10, 2018, 07:30:28 PM
Also, playing 4 numbers has a probability of 64% of hitting at least 1 time or more in 9 spins
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Horsewill on April 10, 2018, 08:21:53 PM
Scarface, I use a repeater method very similar to yours. Do you recall what the biggest unit bet per number you got up to before you were in profit or even? In my own experience, I am usually profitable at around 120 - 150 spins  during longest sessions without multiple hits.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on April 10, 2018, 09:24:08 PM
Scarface, I use a repeater method very similar to yours. Do you recall what the biggest unit bet per number you got up to before you were in profit or even? In my own experience, I am usually profitable at around 120 - 150 spins  during longest sessions without multiple hits.

I'll need to test further to give you a worse case scenario.  But that sounds about right.  Although not every session will lose.  There will be a lot that get one hit, which is basically a break even for that session.  I've had quite a few where I would get 3 to 5 hits playing 3 numbers for 12 spins...which is very nice!

I normally use a +1/-1 progression for this.  If no hit in a session, I add 1 unit for next.  If 1 hit in session, I keep wager the same.  If 2 hits, I lower wager for next session by 1 unit.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 15, 2018, 08:42:59 PM
After big brainstorming last 2-3 weeks i found finally something like Mrtalos idea about weakness of the wheel we can use against it. In two years it’s the first time this idea pass my 4000 spins sample that was my challenge to beat once with any system with only minus 300 at the worst sequence. The total result is 10 times more in fact around one unit every spin on average. I don’t know if i found the same weakness of Mrtalos and to be honest i’m trying to find a way how i can be sure it’s the one and tell him by email without revealing my own that the difficulty ...
the main aspects to have it work in my case :
- a smoth progression that can manage 20 spins with no hit if it happens but the total for recovering can be 80 with no big stress cause it’s up and down.
- a method or pattern to do a kind of selection on what to play but at the end i don’t think it really matter if you even play random (i didn’t tried yet this possibility as i used my pattern).
i’m quite sure i’ve a different system than him cause i can play it directly from spin 1 but maybe it can be improved in another way. Thanks you anyway MrTalos cause your ideas made me think in some ‘crazy ideas’ and different ways that are not mathematical oriented.
The most important is the idea in the system i’m playing now but the progression is important as well to support the idea.
The main trick to solve is this one : be able to afford long bad sequences in a row without going in basic martingale troubles waiting to catch the sequence (based on the weakness) that will put you out of the hole. It will happens necessary with the special selection i’m playing based on weakness of the game. I can have a gap of 20 spins of no hit but at a moment i will have some in a row or not too far away and i will close the game with a surprising low balance to manage at the end (i was even surprised myself).

kind regards.

jerome.

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on April 15, 2018, 10:06:06 PM
You are so very welcome, Jerome
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Reyth on April 16, 2018, 01:20:47 AM
Great job Jerry!  Dr. Talos has said that he can test his system using any selection with the same spin sequence.  That may be the way you are looking to test?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 16, 2018, 07:13:57 AM
Yes i will test that sequence as well and with one or two other samples of live spins. Like i said it’s the first step i know i got something now that is very valuable but it can probably be improved so i will continue to work hard on it now before going live. I don’t want to exhalate already cause i had many déceptions in the past but the fact i beat my file of 4000 continuous spins (it was the devil i never beat before) give me already a lot of confidence this time. But i know 4000 is nothing and maybe i was extremely lucky to try a system that just pass my file by luck ? who knows ?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Scarface on April 26, 2018, 09:35:22 PM
Jerome, hows it going with the test?  Having any luck?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 27, 2018, 12:43:26 PM
hello,

going not so bad but can go once to 1000 units so too high for my preference but always recovered after and benefits of 5 times more. I’m trying to find a way to lower this bankroll needed but not that easy and i’m still blocked on that. The thing is i play just the system and not a system/recovery so maybe i’ve a trick to implement there

kind regards

jerome
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on April 27, 2018, 12:51:35 PM
 

 "Sometimes I'll play 3 numbers instead of 4

In a nutshell, always play hotties" >>>>>>>>> 

Very cool Scarface and I agree !!

I admire the guys who "thanked" your post on this.

Ken
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: jerome26b on April 28, 2018, 01:26:07 PM
any news about the meeting in casino with Reyth ?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on April 28, 2018, 02:10:59 PM
Will be late summer/early fall
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Frequency on May 10, 2018, 12:37:31 AM
I was quite sure that he will reach a new step of recovery when he reached a certain amount of unit exposure, but he recently posted that he finished a singular session with a maximum exposition of 203 units whilst the game ended at the first step of recovery. If we compare it to the session that he posted with more details, he finished the game in the third step of recovery with just a maximum exposition of 182 units.

So it seems like he changes recovery steps after he reaches a certain amount of numbers played in total, which is quite odd.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Ainz on May 29, 2018, 03:03:49 AM
Hi DrTalos. You said some posts ago that you were having problems handling so much PMs so I'm writing to you here. First of all I would like to say you thank you, honestly, thank you very much. At the time that Reith started the topic "Talos Dump" I had already thrown in the towel. But thank to your hints and words of encouragement I started to think again that beating the wheel was possible. With the help of your new topic "How do I make my systems?" I developed a quite strong system. No bet selection, my target is always the same and by now it works. I'm tweaking it while I test, I'm sure that it is not completed yet but I think that it is quite close.

Like I said before, thank you very very much for your help and for sharing your knowledge. If I were u, I don't know if I would do the same. You are an awesome guy.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Horsewill on May 29, 2018, 03:53:01 PM
Dr Talos, I would just like to add to what Aintz said. Your posts in this thread changed completely the way I play roulette. I added a couple of little tweaks and I now believe there are people who can beat the wheel consistently.
Thank you very much.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on May 30, 2018, 07:27:31 PM
@frequency. My game changes following the game unfolding. My 23th bet in two different attacks can be similar or very different.

@ainz and horsewill. Your results and your efforts were my goal when I signed for this forum. Your success is my success, but I do not deserve any credit. You did the hard by yourselves, and you should congratulate just yourselves.

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on June 04, 2018, 12:23:20 AM
With extreme sadness I found out that my name, and my ideas expressed here, are used in other forum to discredit me and this public place. Sure one of the leader of that is Mr. J, and some other people who have made their own opinions without the minimum knowledge of me or doing some efforts to go through the posts to understand better. Basic point they made are:
I am a scammer.
This scam is guided by Kav.
Me and Kav are the same person.
Reyth is a dumb guy who will be scammed by me.
Reyth will give me money at the very first chance.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on June 04, 2018, 12:30:26 AM
I know there is nothing to do against prejudices. They wrote I am a guy named Jeffrey Tool, a well known scammer, looking to find new victims.
  I say again, nevertheless, that I don't need anybody's money. I will meet Reyth just to show that it works. I will never ask him money, but I will offer him a dinner, probably.
  I am sad that people, so many people, enjoys put s*** on other's. I am sad to see so much hate and jealousy, envy and prejudice. I offered you informations, sure a little vague, and most of all a guiding light, without asking a thing. This world has become nasty, and terrible.
  I am just bitter. Forgive me for this rant.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 04, 2018, 12:34:28 AM
With extreme sadness I found out that my name, and my ideas expressed here, are used in other forum to discredit me and this public place. Sure one of the leader of that is Mr. J, and some other people who have made their own opinions without the minimum knowledge of me or doing some efforts to go through the posts to understand better. Basic point they made are:
I am a scammer.
This scam is guided by Kav.
Me and Kav are the same person.
Reyth is a dumb guy who will be scammed by me.
Reyth will give me money at the very first chance.

Used in OTHER forums? Such as??

I never said you were a scammer, I never used you and Kav in the same sentence etc. I have no clue what you are talking about. Please POINT OUT where I said this, thanks. Like I say to MickyP, if you're gonna ACCUSE, please point it out.

Ken
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 04, 2018, 12:38:14 AM
"They wrote I am a guy named Jeffrey Tool" >> I dont know who "they" are and I never heard of Jeffrey Tool.
(Wow, thats like four different members in 72 hours. When you really dont want a member here (me), just pool together and say anything I guess). Good luck with that.  ???

Ken
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on June 04, 2018, 01:35:03 AM
https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/roul30-latest-gypsy-scam.9716/

I didn't wrote you sayd thta. I wrote you are one of them.
  I personally find you are sometimes correct about things on this game, but the way to express your opinion is not very pleasureful. Reminds me of an old saying: "even a broken watch marks the right time twice a day".
  I think you are a rotten apple, trying to waste the all basket. I do not understand why you are here, unless you find enjoyble your continuous fight with everybody. How tasteless is this behaviour, though.

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 04, 2018, 02:02:43 AM
 
"I didn't wrote you sayd that. I wrote you are one of them" >> ummm, alright. (lol)
((You sound like MrPerfect......I said this, no, but wait, I didn't say that. (lol)
"I do not understand why you are here" >> I answered that already (sigh), I tell you what NOT to do.

Anything LEFT OVER, is up to you to experiment with.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 04, 2018, 02:05:59 AM
Can you explain where I am at with all this? or is it again, I didn't say that BUT I am "part of them"? (lol) >>
Basic point they made are:
I am a scammer.
This scam is guided by Kav.
Me and Kav are the same person.
Reyth is a dumb guy who will be scammed by me.
Reyth will give me money at the very first chance.

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: rimsky on June 04, 2018, 07:07:51 AM
Because of his reference to the "Casino di Venezia" in one of his early post, and to the fact that chips were "lire" and not "euros" - thus at least twenty years ago -  I think Dr Talos could be from Italy.Anyway I trust what he says. His way of thinking and dealing with the game is profound. He lacks all the features of the impostor.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: GIAJJENNO on June 04, 2018, 09:57:46 AM

"I didn't wrote you sayd that. I wrote you are one of them" >> ummm, alright. (lol)
((You sound like MrPerfect......I said this, no, but wait, I didn't say that. (lol)
"I do not understand why you are here" >> I answered that already (sigh), I tell you what NOT to do.

Anything LEFT OVER, is up to you to experiment with.

Are you here to tell what not to do? What? You just tell with everybody that 5+ numbers betting is dumbsht and he is rookie etc. I have not heard from you any intelligent and explained comment since I am here. You comments, posts before 2000s I dont care.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 04, 2018, 01:06:15 PM
"Are you here to tell what not to do" >> Correct, for the 7th time now. and I have said MUCH MORE than, how many numbers not to bet. Like the advice or dont like it, but you cant say I have not given it out. That would be ANOTHER lie.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: GIAJJENNO on June 04, 2018, 01:24:07 PM
But I can say, and I said. But then ask others:

Has anyone heard good advices from mr j or intelligent explained answers, why he thinks his opinions as he thinks? Or any normal advices other than 5+ numbers betting is dumbsht?

If yes, please write down here, where was these posts.

Thanks.
Giaj
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 04, 2018, 01:26:26 PM
"Has anyone heard good advices from mr j" >> no no no no no no, thats not what I said. Please quote me correctly.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on June 04, 2018, 01:28:18 PM
It is so pointless debating with or about mr. J and/or his posts... Can we please let him alone barking at the moon?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 04, 2018, 01:28:37 PM
Regarding DrTalos.....a doctor of what? Is there proof of this?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 04, 2018, 01:30:44 PM
  Like the advice or dont like it, but you cant say I have not given it out. That would be ANOTHER lie.

Thats what I said. YOU SAID, "good advice". (it actually is). Please quote me correctly in the future.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 05, 2018, 01:53:55 AM
Regarding DrTalos.....a doctor of what? Is there proof of this?

Hello, anyone? Thats what I thought.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: roulette master series on June 05, 2018, 04:09:40 AM
yes there is.... a proof of lose unfortunately.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 10, 2018, 09:16:27 PM
Regarding DrTalos.....a doctor of what? Is there proof of this?

Still WAITING......anyone?

Ken
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Badger on June 11, 2018, 02:28:35 PM
Regarding Mr J.....is he a mister? Is there proof of this?  :)

It's only a username Ken. After all, you don't believe that I'm a real Badger, do you?

As for RG, he lives in New Jersey. And MickeyP lives in South Africa. So it's most probably NOT the
same guy.

Hope that helps a bit.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 11, 2018, 07:34:56 PM
The rules are the SAME for me. No proof I am a mister, agreed. No real proof of anyone on the boards >>race, gender, age, being a doctor, being a roulette winner etc etc etc etc.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on June 19, 2018, 02:25:38 AM
One concept quite important, at least for me, is that every unit played has different odds of coming put. For example, if I play a dozen, I play 12 numbers out of 37. If I play a second dozen that extra units plays 12 numbers out of 25.
  That is very different from play one unit on one dozen for two spins...

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Frequency on June 21, 2018, 06:14:26 AM
Talos Bertrand system goes for atleast 11 spins before it reaches first level recovery whilst the first 5 bets are always same. So that reveals that the first half of his system is not parachute. If that was the case the first 11 spins would always be the same since any hit before the recovery will end the session. So it seems like there are three different scenarios that can occur between 5th bet and the beginning of the recovery; a pivotal hit that will end the game, an additional hit on supplementary added numbers that will decrease exposure or a complete miss that increases exposure.

[/size]
The first half of his system are possibly like this:



18 1
18 2 -3
12 2 -5         
12 3 -8     0/60

6+6 2+1 -11/-5
4+6 2+1 -14/-8
4+6 2+1 -17/-11
3+6 2+1 -20/-14
3+6 2+1 -23/-17
3+3 3+1 -27/-15
3+3 3+1 -31/-19
3+3 3+1 -35/-23    0/128 

Then recovery begins.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: DrTalos on June 27, 2018, 07:34:39 PM
The wheel must provide a number. And that number must be inside the mathematical probabilities that we know. We can choose what and when to bet, we rule the game, while the wheel must respect its dynamic constraints.
  My opinion is that, in order to beat the game, you must follow it till it falls in your arms. I don't chase the outcome, I wait. Unless it is rigged, the wheel will hit one of my number one time every 38 numbers played.
  How to endure that wait is the challenge. I said it already. I am still working on that. Last week I found a way to raise my needed ratio from 1/60 to 1/66. Sessions became a little shorter, so a little less boring. I Have no doubt that in 5 more years will be even better than that.
  Predictions, pre or post throw, sound a little silly to me. With modern technologies, thinking on a defected wheel sounds anachronistic, in my opinion. I prefer to "trap" the session in a way that sounds like a mouse trapped in a labyrinth: the only way out is providing a winning.
  I suggest you for the last time to not waste time chasing numbers but rely on the only weakness game has. Its weakness is your strong. Plan an approach that works perfectly on paper, with the math (probabilities) in your favor, and you got it.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: mr j on June 27, 2018, 07:56:07 PM
"I Have no doubt that in 5 more years will be even better than that" >> and I think thats awesome. Goals that your game (profit) will/should get better as the years pass. Everyone should have this goal and not stay in neutral.

Ken
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: leowls on August 04, 2018, 08:42:53 AM
Every system should be built around a target.
  What the target is doesn't really matter, and the designation of a target is on player shoulder, rely on his experience and his way to see the game.
  Who spent some time at the roulette wheel, sure noticed something that can be used as a target, for example the four repetition of the same dozen.

Let's say we accept this as our target. We do not know when or how frequently this situation occurs, but we reasonably believe that happens often enough to be a valuable information, and a trustfully target.
  Now we have to build a system on dozen who will end when that target, that situation, shows up. It is just that.

A system must have a single target in mind, not two or three. We try to survive, playing more or less numbers, with progression or flat bet, till the situation we fixed as a target will shows up and close our session for us.
  Sure, there are target more easy to hit, and some more hard. In the first scenario session will be short, and the variance will ask us a lot of faith, while the second can be longer, safer sessions, but at the end shouldn't really matter.

In the system I posted about dozens and column, the target is to have a certain number of repetitions back to back. We need to survive till this sequence becames effective. Here's the tweak I created to get advantage of the target without loosing everything before time.
  After a hit, I usually raise one unit. If hit again, I keep raising, and when I miss the bet decrease of one unit. If hit, the next bet will be the highest bet I reached before plus 1.
  The sequence will look like
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1 hit
  2 hit
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1 hit
  4 hit
  5 hit
  6
  5
  4 hit
  7

Hope is clear.

I think this is also a good system for evenly chance bet...I'm really having great results with this. I'm very tempted to bring this to a b&m casino soon.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: BlueAngel on September 26, 2018, 02:23:27 PM
Dr Talos with all due respect I'd like to share my opinion regarding the clues given over many posts and months.

I believe that the "working skeleton" of your system is the recovery plan, if so then the 1 win per 60 numbers bet ratio is the "skull of the skeleton".

You've repeatedly played down the importance of selection, but I've reasons to believe that it's more important for YOU than what you want us to believe.
In order to prove that your claims intentionally played down the importance I'm going to give everyone a few things to think about.

If we consider bet selections ONLY as quantities then we HAVE TO embrace the House Edge AND the extreme deviations.
The ratio 1/60 is not sufficient to cover the worst of the situations, betting for example 5 times a dozen is 60 numbers.

Therefore you are looking for a dozen to win every 5 bets, please don't avoid my point by saying:"I'm not betting only a dozen", the point is that on average you are expecting 1 win per 60 numbers bet, thus the 1 win per 5 bets for a dozen or 1 win per 10 bets for a line (DS).

So if there are only 11 hits for a dozen the first 100 bets, then 26 more hits for that dozen during the second 100 I don't see how your recovery ratio could collaborate with such bad outcomes!

All it takes is a bad start and then a continuation which the results remain below your expected ratio for more than 200 bets, do you think what am saying is impossible?
It's strange that since you are winning for years never happened to you such incident! ??? :o

A number could be absent for 666 successive spins, taking this as a base then we can find the virtual limits for other selections (when are being considered ONLY as quantities).

1 number missing 666 consecutive spins (any one)
666/2= 333 spins for 2 numbers (any two)
666/3= 222 spins for 3 numbers (any three)
666/4= 166 spins for 3 numbers (any four)
666/6= 111 spins for 6 numbers (any six)
666/12=55 spins for 12 numbers (any twelve)
666/18=37 spins for 18 numbers (any eighteen)

This is not just a theory, I've confirmed it by running my entire database of 16.6 millions of results, I've found 678 spins for number 22 to be the longest missing number.
Thus when you are claiming that you disregard selection and the recovery alone with the 1 win per 60 numbers are what makes your system a long term winner, then something doesn't fit in the picture...

In other words your 1/60 is a boat which hopes for not tornadoes of variance to wipe it away, I'm just wondering how on earth you've not encounter at least one such situation in years!

In a way everything is a trade between time and money, the same for roulette, the more aggressive/steep a progression is the sooner it reaches net profit, the milder is a recovery plan the LONGER it'd take to reach a profit.

In theory even flat bets can get ahead after a LONG stretch of losing, it's a compromisation of time to money, some fellas prefer one over the other, personally speaking it should be biased slightly towards time in order to stay within reasonable betting limits, of course not too mild otherwise we'd spend many hours in order to gain a few units.

1 of the following has to be the explanation with your case:

1) It has never happened to you - VERY hard to believe when we are talking about YEARS of betting!

2) You are hiding something and that has to be regarding the SELECTION.
This is what I believe to be the case.

Like others I've read your posts, there is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY to pick ANYTHING and make it WIN WITH 1/60 NUMBERS RATIO!
At least you would exceed the 200 spins to make a single coup, by the way 1 coup is NOT 1 game/session Dr Talos!
A session contains many coups, a coup is the winning bet which resolves a series of losing ones.

About your selection, you've mentioned "Monty Pythons", "there are 3 boxes and 1 is revealed so now remaining 2..."
This has to be the Law Of the Thirds, specifically roughly 1/3 of the roulette numbers are 12 so by knowing the average distribution:
12 sleepers, 12 repeaters, 12 average you see the last 12 (1 box is revealed), there are 24 more numbers (2 more boxes) from which half of them will not hit.
It makes sense to bet the 12 last numbers (keep the box) rather bet some other 12, if we'd bet 12 not shown that far we could get 0 wins on the remaining 24 bets, it's extreme but we could pick all the sleeping 12 numbers.
On the other hand, there would be 12 repeats, there could be also from numbers which have not hit yet, but the numbers which have already hit/shown are closer to the 2+ hits than those which are still 0 hits within the same 24 spins.

So there you are your dozen, expecting 1 win per 5 spins bet would average approximately 5 expected wins within 25 remaining spins, that's a very realistic expectation to bet for 5 instead of 12 repeats/wins.
It would conclude profitably most of the time within the 37/38 spins cycle, your first 12 bets are all outside and that serves also as the charting of the 12 last spins and/or numbers.

In case you'd not win within the cycle then you activate what you call the 3rd level by sticking with those same 12 numbers.

Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Rinad on September 26, 2018, 04:36:11 PM


  Blue Angel,

can you tell us since you ran millions of spins on single numbers what was the least amount of spins missing from a single number and how many were they that had more then 600 spins missing out of the 38 numbers ?
I dont have the means to get that type of infos but I would apreciated if you can tell me, out of curiosity ?

thanks
Rinad
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: BlueAngel on September 26, 2018, 04:50:16 PM

Rinad, just to be clear, from the 16.6 millions only 10 were simulated results, the rest were from various casinos with physical wheels (including 10,000 from American wheel).

The shortest were just in the next spin, 2 hits back to back, this has been done by all numbers.

The second worst I've found was 578 spins missing for number 6, the third longest was 523 spins for number 15.

I didn't do all these for nothing, I wanted to confirm my theory that even if I had the incredible luck to pick such number my betting method could end up with a profit and BR just under 1,000 units.

I've just remembered that there was also one number with 608 missing spins, therefore 2 numbers above 600 spins.
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Greek on September 26, 2018, 05:53:21 PM
A highly successful system must be treated as a money making machine, with no emotions, boring as hell; and should be easily taught to someone who knows nothing about roulette or gambling. I believe that in order for a system to be a successful working system, it does not matter what strategy is being used, EC, dozens, splits, streets, 4 through 24 numbers straight up, etc. Mathematical laws are thrown out, only simple probability applied. A good system should not be subjected to more than 20 spins, 10 of which is first recorded, the other 10 spins, max, used as betting targets, optimum target hit in 4 spins. Flat betting is the primary choice of betting. Secondary choice of betting should include initial investment amount. A target amount is always the goal.

DrTalos or anyone else, does your system meet the above criteria?
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Rinad on September 26, 2018, 06:01:18 PM
 

    thanks Angel, good to know. when i asked for the shortest i meant were they single numbers that ever went missing not more then 250, 300 spins maybe after so many spins ?  in other words can you pick a number and play it for,lets said 100k spins and never see it missing more then 300 spins ?
the reason i asked is because I read about this player that claimed he played for 29 years and kept track of 80.000 spins and mentioned that his longest missing single number was 307 spins. but again he often moved from one single to another single, which may make a big difference since you dont play any single number for a full cycle of 38 spins on american wheel.
on the other hand if your method can withstand 600 spins I salute you for such accomplishement . as you dont always play every spins you will probably never encounter such bad batch of spins , not even close.
Cheers,
Rinad
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: BlueAngel on September 26, 2018, 06:04:01 PM
Just my 2 cents, a winning method never restricts the potential profit by setting profit limits.
Whether you can profit or you don't, otherwise you are betting hit n' run (fooling yourself on borrowed time).
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: BlueAngel on September 26, 2018, 06:13:25 PM
Rinad, the 307 spins is normal for 80,000 spins total, he just didn't encounter yet longer super sleepers.
I'm not sure if there is a selection criteria which could reduce the longest absence of numbers.
My estimation from experience says that if we follow the leading number in hits and apply some stops after every 37 missed bets, then this duration should be shorter.
Of course by stop betting something in order to wait for it to return it means that you would miss some hits.
My method on single number requires ONLY 1 hit to resolve any betting series with a profit of at least 1 unit.

I'm afraid that not far from now someone will accuse us of highjacking Dr Talos thread to our own conveniences...!
Title: Re: How do I make my systems?
Post by: Greek on September 26, 2018, 06:29:05 PM
Thanks BA for your 2 cents.
Potential profit is measure by the target amount set prior to betting.Chasing potential profit without a amount in mind may cause greater potential losses.So in my opinion, chasing potential profit is a dangerous road and should not be part of making a system.