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Roulette Forum => Roulette Strategy Discussion => Topic started by: dobbelsteen on October 09, 2017, 08:40:52 AM

Title: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 09, 2017, 08:40:52 AM

The roulette has infinite betting selections (systems) and getting schemes. Every roulette site has a large number of designers or gold diggers. The look for the Holy Grail will never stop.
In spite of this you can find a lot of interesting and beautiful systems. Most designers are no researchers and they have too less knowledge of the roulette game.
In 40 years playing and researching I have developed my roulette theory. The rules for successful systems and methods are based on my theory .
To judge systems ,computer simulation is indispensable.
It is no shame when you do not have the knowledge of programming.
I have made many analysis of systems in Excel and published on the forum. The results are mostly disappointed, because the designers have too high expectations. The goal of these research is to find  changes for better.
After publishing the Excel results the discussion stops and the thread ends without conclusions.

Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 09, 2017, 01:00:31 PM
Hg was found long time ego... it's a bias play. This is exactly the reason for biggest winnings ever ( if not for all of them).
    How to bet , Real already told up few posts.
There is no need to invent the wheel,it already has been done. What we really left with to decide is to how profit optimally in conditions that are offered to us.
   Progression is just a tool, incorrect use of such a tool lead to losses. Every individual case require specific progression designed for this very  specific case. It's like a lock and a key... stupid to use same key for different locks.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 09, 2017, 02:58:21 PM
I am an engineer and I do not beleave in bias wheels. The outcome of roulette wheels are the same as the outcome of an fair RNG, Absolute random. You live in the time far behind us. How do you find a bias wheel?
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: Real on October 09, 2017, 04:14:31 PM
I am an engineer and I do not beleave in bias wheels. The outcome of roulette wheels are the same as the outcome of an fair RNG, Absolute random. You live in the time far behind us. How do you find a bias wheel?

Dobbelsteen,

As I recall didn't you at one time say that you were an "electrical engineer?"  If so, then what on earth does that have to do with biased wheels?  LOL.

Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 09, 2017, 04:31:21 PM
Real you are wrong. I am a retired prof. I taught  propulsion plants for oceangoing ships. This includes the manufacturing and maintain of engines
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: Real on October 09, 2017, 04:47:17 PM
And that has what to do with biased wheels???

To me, it's obvious that you're at least not a structural engineer.  The reason is the math...basic probability.  Your math skills seem to weak.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 09, 2017, 05:02:52 PM
 Dobbelsteen,  lm not engine guy. I just use to study very well at "normall" USSR school. After that lm self education maniac for a few years already...
    I find wheels to play collecting data and by visual observations as well, l became quite familiar with Reals method of light and shadows.
   No need to "belive" anything, l offer vb course  ( as you probably know already) , price shouldn't be a problem for retired engineer. It gives first hand experience how to ....
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: Reyth on October 09, 2017, 05:20:25 PM
Sorry to insert myself into an argument here but I must say that Dobble's Short Run Theory DOES have some merit and veteran gamblers like Pales & Harry J agree.  I think Kav might even support the theory in certain ways (Kav is no simple fellow!).

I have shown that the wheel focus will change from session to session and so I also support his theory.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 09, 2017, 05:37:57 PM
 Reyth, nothing wrong with his theory. Short run data in specific conditions ( being offered in the moment) may very well be more valuable then long run data. 
   It's due to averaging between conditions in long term data... 
    This way short term ( run) is more actual and relevant, unless wheel is modeled on the long run and all variables in place are accounted.
    Simple example- ball change. All data is relevant for specific ball, if changed, use of previously taken data is fractional and questionable  ( unless confirmed with posterior data taking)... 
   
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: Reyth on October 09, 2017, 06:14:53 PM
Right, in my case, since I use RNG bias, I have to monitor the short-term streaks because the bias I am playing is in the long-term and every group of numbers cycles through hot-cold phases. :)

Every time I reset a session, just like Dobble says, I get a new random row; a new sequence that has its own unique focus.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: Real on October 09, 2017, 07:02:22 PM
Quote
Dobble's Short Run Theory DOES have some merit and veteran gamblers like Pales & Harry J agree.  I think Kav might even support the theory in certain ways (Kav is no simple fellow!).

Sorry, but I just don't see a point to it or the random row nonsense.
Quote
I have shown that the wheel focus will change from session to session and so I also support his theory.

What theory?  There's no difference between two short sessions of 50 spins and one session of 100 spins.  It's just a mind game that is being played. 
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: Reyth on October 09, 2017, 07:16:56 PM
Certainly in your number tracking you have noticed how the statistical swings are more wild when the tracking sample is smaller, right?

Furthermore, when I reset a RNG sequence, I get a new random focus with specific features that are unique.

These things are useful.

Look, lets take a step back here for a moment and reflect....

(https://carlae.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/hmmm.jpg)

How often do you make arguments based simply on the fact that "roulette systems can't work and only physical bias (...et. al.) works" instead of speaking specifically to the data and considering it as it is presented?

I mean don't get me wrong I am guilty of the same bias towards your posts too.  Its only recently that I have begun to actually appreciate the true wisdom in the more detailed and thoughtful ones.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: jerome26b on October 09, 2017, 09:02:55 PM
with an elaborate strategy with stop/loss win target playing 2 sessions of 50 spins or shorter (or little bit longer) can give different outcome than a 100 spin session. It's because you delimit yourselves the strategy to your objectives. But i agree some bad system/strategies will not give a difference after 10 sessions 100 spins or 20 sessions 50 spins; then can even get worse overall results at the end.

jerome
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: Real on October 10, 2017, 12:26:32 AM
Umm...is that a cat in your post?  Remind me to troll you over that later.

Nobody is making long term money by just simply applying some money management or by just gambling "in the short term."
It just doesn't work like that.  Never has, and it never will.

In the long run we don't win or lose because of our money management. 
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 10, 2017, 08:21:08 AM
MrPerfect I do not discus the VB  or DS methods. On VLS  roulette computers are to buy. The kinematic theory for the roulette is very complex. The new generation roulette equipment has sensors to measure ball and wheel velocity and the computer regulates the slow down of the wheel. The result is manipulated. In spite of this the final outcome is random. The patents of the different roulette developers are public.

Sum opponents of the short run theory do not know what short run means. A 50 spins sample of an EC has not the same features as a 50 spins sample of a 30 number bet. 
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 10, 2017, 10:20:47 AM
 Dobbelsteen,  the thing is... l know next to nothing about " kinematic theory" , l just use what is based on practical observations.  What works for me is good enough,  do not see any benefit to complicate it. Most of processes going on in roulette spin l just copy by it's value without bothering with complex calculations. As they say " if it works, don't fix it"...
    There are many roulette computers on market, most of them are not worth hardware price. I get many reports from other players, they are struggling to make damn thing pay the rent. Often l come to rc sellers websites to read, just out of curiosity.  It results in desapointment from reading what they post there...
    About your " short term theory". I see nothing wrong with it. Unfortunately l do not see anything interesting about it as well( for myself) . If someday you start to calculate amount of trials nessesary to win in positive expectation situations,l will be your most devoted follower. For that you just need to change bet selection from some random group of numbers ( EC for example) , to something more interesting  ( bias numbers/ distances or whatever ).
     You are right, on some wheels result is manipulated, on others it's affected, however, as my studies show, it's not equal to randomness.  Same things that make manipulation posible often make a wheel more then predictable. Do you see, to manipulate, need to limit degrees of freedom as well.  And it's exactly what player should be looking for in this game.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 10, 2017, 03:38:17 PM
I do not attack your method. I have not the skill and talent to predict the sector where the ball will land. I have a large experience with the performance of all kinds of random rows. The last 20 numbers and the stats of the large 50 numbers give me enough information for successful winning events within 10 spins. From the beginning I play always on more than 2 tables. I have not the time to watch what happens on the wheel.

My most well known system is SSB. All over the world there is interest in the Exel spread sheet.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 10, 2017, 06:36:38 PM
I'm known to be curious about other people excel developments. :). I would like to have a look, if you do not mind.
    In no way lm criticising your methods or systems, lm just trying to figure out if it can be useful for what lm doing, somehow. 
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: Reyth on October 10, 2017, 07:17:12 PM
Hahah like we all are!  I have learned from my AP friends many things like:

Quote
A roulette wheel is “biased” when at least one number consistently comes up more often than it should.

Quote
...you’ll need to chart thousands of spins.

Quote
If you don’t have the time for a charting 5,000 spins, you could look for sector bias, which doesn’t require as many spins to verify. This means that the ball is falling more often than it should in a certain section of the wheel. You bet the numbers in that section to exploit such a bias.

Quote
Let’s look at the math. If your number comes up every 28 spins (on average), and you’re betting ten dollars each time, you’ll lose $270 ($10 x 27 spins) for every time you win $350 on that winning 28th spin (you’re paid 35 to 1). That’s a net profit of $80 for each 28 spins of the wheel.

Quote
Even with a true bias, a favored number might not show up for 100 spins at some point. If that happens and you’re betting $10 each time, you’ll have lost $1,000 between wins.

All of this information has been very valuable to me. :D

As far as Dobble's Short Run Theory, I have found that when I reset a session, I get a brand new sequence that has its own unique bias.  This can be very helpful during bias shifts when longer-term dispersion is occurring so I can reset and get a clearer picture of things. :)
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 11, 2017, 01:08:31 PM
MRPerfect. Here on the forum you can find a lot of Exel sheets from my hand. I do not sell any program.
All is free available for interested members. On all computer devices Excel is available. It is the best tool to practice roulette ideas. I do not understand why my programs receive so less respons.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 11, 2017, 07:52:35 PM
 Dobbelsteen, l can judge only with myself as an example... but many people do the same. Folks in general only value things that they achieve with effort.
   I used to jump around offering help , knolidge .. ets, just to make people do something ( collect data, study, think..). And then someone told me " if it would be any good, it would be offered for a price".  Well..  l took this advice seriously.  Sims working up till now.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 12, 2017, 10:04:43 AM
MrPerfect. Thanks for your advice. You can buy my Excel sheets . 10 euro for one sheet and 20% discount for 10 sheets.I will send you the programs by email. Go to rouletteplayersclub@hotmail.nl for more info
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: scepticus on October 12, 2017, 10:58:25 AM
Short runs ARE different from Long Runs which is why our critics say that we can win in the Short Run but not in the Long Run.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: thomasleor on October 12, 2017, 11:04:35 AM
MrPerfect. Thanks for your advice. You can buy my Excel sheets . 10 euro for one sheet and 20% discount for 10 sheets.I will send you the programs by email. Go to rouletteplayersclub@hotmail.nl for more info

I can buy a hot dog, or good Hamburger  for the same price and have a far better experience, Dobbie.
10€ ?  Are you f...ing joking? What happened to you? Did you lose it all and went into desperation-mode?
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: MrPerfect. on October 12, 2017, 12:26:53 PM
 Dobbelsteen,  if l find in your work something l could use on mine, l will be happy to pay price requested. I belive that work wich is useful should be payable.  Slavery time fortunately is over long ego .
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 12, 2017, 12:51:06 PM
Scepticus. You must make a difference between methods and systems. On the long run every system will stabilize at 2,7% loss.  Profit and loss fluctuates in short run events. For all the number bets the turn over can be computed with roulette simulation programs.
The result is unpredictable. The successful player uses strategies and systems together.

For all my followers the results of my research stay free available
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: scepticus on October 12, 2017, 01:51:41 PM
Dobbelsteen.
In practical terms there is no Long Run and a Prediction without a timeline is absurd.
No one can prove that " every system  will stabilise at a 2 . 7 % loss "  .That is an Expectation - not a fact . A newcomers need to understand  that he can lose 2 . 7% within a short period of time .
What we need to concentrate on is what to bet , when to bet and how much to bet with reference to the odds - on -offer -  at each session   Everything else is " NOISE " .
Incidentally , I think you overpay with your progression of 10 bets .
 
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: Real on October 12, 2017, 03:42:32 PM
Short term systems inevitably become permanent losers over time.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 12, 2017, 04:34:01 PM

I have published the results of many systems . DTOP is the place from where every system has a permanent loss.That is not a time. Roulette has no time line only a infinite sequence.

Computer simulation tell you the truth. Words can not explain.Here the graphic for a 18 number bet
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: Real on October 12, 2017, 04:50:04 PM
I don't know why you need to run a computer simulation to show that.  It's easily calculated.  At least we agree that the player will inevitably become a permanent loser.

By the way, what's also missing are the simulations that show a loss from the very first spin, showing that the player never even breaks even.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: scepticus on October 12, 2017, 04:53:55 PM
Dobbelsteen
You say
" roulette has no timeline only an infinite sequence"
THAT is what I have been arguing !
No computer simulation can cope with an infinite sequence . Computer simulations are used to calculate what the user wants to calculate - nothing more. It is pointless to use simulations to discover if  a method / system can overcome the HE because if you insert a negative then the answer will always be negative.You should not need a computer to tell you that . Just use your common sense .
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: Reyth on October 12, 2017, 05:26:44 PM
Our roulette sessions will always be a closed circuit.
Title: Re: Dobble's Short Run Theory
Post by: dobbelsteen on October 12, 2017, 08:44:17 PM
Only with the help of the computer, I can show you more than 100 samples all with the same features. After about 250 spins all the samples have a loss of about 2,7%. I think with 1000 samples I can not convince you.

You are sticked in your AP. Every discussion with you about random rows is useless