Roulette Forum

Roulette Forum => Questions and Answers => Topic started by: TERMINATOR on March 09, 2017, 07:31:14 PM

Title: Irregular Distribution
Post by: TERMINATOR on March 09, 2017, 07:31:14 PM
 Hi, my question concerns the fact that there are MORE Red/Even and Black/Odd numbers, than there are Red/Odd and Black/Even numbers.

 It seems it would it be more likely for a bet on Red/Even to win, than if I bet on Red/Odd, since Red/Even is more likely to hit.

 Can someone explain to me how my thinking is wrong?
 
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: Reyth on March 09, 2017, 07:55:39 PM
So you plan on betting two EC's at once with one chip on each?
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: Jesper on March 09, 2017, 08:24:25 PM
Since the birth of the game of roulette, this idea has been reinvented daily!  Yes you last longer, more break even bets and  a quarter or so of the bets is a win! WAIT there is a zero or two!

We can use it if we know how the best progressions for the bet is used. Still we win or lose.
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: TERMINATOR on March 09, 2017, 09:12:01 PM
Yes, Reyth, 1 chip on Red and 1 chip on Odd. Since there are TWO extra numbers that THAT bet covers, compared to the Red/Even bet, does not this translate into more winning opportunities?

I’m sure I am in error. I just want to understand the MATH behind why this is wrong.

An analogy: If there was a 10 number lottery:
Option A - Bet $1 for 1 of the 10 numbers to come in, and win $1 if it wins, Option B - Bet $1 for any THREE numbers to come in, and win $1 if it wins.

My chances of winning INCREASE by betting $1 on Option B which has MORE CHANCES of those numbers hitting.

Red/Odd has TWO EXTRA NUMBERS that are covered by a 1 unit bet, as the Red/Even has. Does not this have more chances of winning? Just as in the example above?
 
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: kav on March 09, 2017, 09:59:30 PM
This is very relevant:
An observation on Even Chances (https://www.roulette30.com/2013/08/an-observation-on-even-chances.html)

The secret is that if a number is both your bets, be it red/even or red/odd it pays 2 chips while if it only one of the two it just gives you your money back (lose one win one). So in Red/odd we have less chance to lose everything, but also less chance to win 2 units.
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: TERMINATOR on March 09, 2017, 10:18:15 PM
Hi Kav, your reply and article cleared it up a little. Even though I have less chances of losing, I also have less chances of winning. That makes sense.

Let me ask one more question. In your opinion, if you were to bet a Paroli, would it be better to bet on Red/Even rather than Red/Odd? Or would there really be no difference?

It seems like there would be no difference, but since less numbers can hurt you, it seems it might be better to bet on Red/Even?
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: juice on March 10, 2017, 12:28:10 AM
unless you are going to keep separate score sheets for each e.c.. I suggest you do not parlay an attempt at that or any combo. NOT IF YOU WANT THE FORCE TO BE WITH YOU...........
H/L-O/E-R/B =    CHANCES OF HITTING THE TRIFECTA...........

L-E-R=4
L-E-B=5
L-O-R=5
L-O-B=4
H-E-R=4
H-E-B=5
H-O-R=5
H-O-B=4 

GOOD LUCK TERMINATOR! THE EGG HEADS HERE WILL GIVE YOU SOMETHING STRONGER TO THROW YOUR MONEY AT~~~~JUICE       
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: kav on March 10, 2017, 12:55:44 AM
I agree with juice.
Unless you plan to play a sophisticated Paroli of your own design.
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: TERMINATOR on March 10, 2017, 01:05:29 AM
The thing I like about betting on Red/Even for a Paroli, is that I do NOT need 3 wins in a row. For example, the 2nd spin can be a push (red wins, even loses), in which case it will be a push, and the bet stays at the 2nd stage of the Paroli.

I've been successful with this approach in the SHORT time I've been doing this so far. Just for fun, not for money.

I noticed that Juice's chances of hitting were DIFFERENT for the RE and RO categories. Is  "5" better than a "4" in this case? If so, it seems Red/Odd has a better chance than Red/Even? 

Thanks
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: kav on March 10, 2017, 01:11:14 AM
Term,
Paroli does not "need 3 wins in a row" (it can be 2 or 10 wins) and it is even more unclear how a paroli would be played on 2 even chances.

I think you use a system of your own design and you ask us to evaluate it without describing it.
Please tell the system if you need feedback.
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: TERMINATOR on March 10, 2017, 05:20:55 AM
 Hi Kev. This is not my own system, but I read it on your forum. Dane mentioned this system here:
https://www.roulettelife.com/index.php?topic=1071.msg15105#msg15105

 He said here that he bets both RED and EVEN at the same time, and doubles up after winning both. He said Only eight of the 18 red numbers are Even. This irregular distribution means that he'll come out from the paroli without losing everything.

 This sounded interesting to me, and I tried it and I did have success with it. I never realized that Red and Even had less numbers than Red and Odd. Which brings me to the reason I started this post.

 Oh, and when I searched for "Paroli" on the internet, the definition I saw was that it is a double up three times in a row, so that is how I was using the word Paroli.

 I guess it is up to the user how many times to double up. Thanks for pointing that out!

 But, what I really wanted to know is if the chances of winning on Red/Even were better than on Red/Odd (or vice versa).  And according to Juices' reply, one DOES have a better chance of winning than the other. I am just unsure what he means when he uses the numbers 4 and 5 to tell me what the chances are. Is a 5 better than a 4? Or vice versa?

 Thanks for your help!
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: juice on March 10, 2017, 07:02:49 AM
Yes, 5 is better
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: kav on March 10, 2017, 11:06:44 AM
Why search the internet for the Paroli when we have a full article on it? :-)

https://www.roulette30.com/2014/03/paroli-system.html
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: Dane on March 10, 2017, 01:28:01 PM
Hello Terminator! Thanks for referring to my post on Paroli & Irregular Distribution.
Before you deTERMINE what to do,  it might be good to know  the exact distribution.
Combining Red & Even (or Black & Odd) might be valuable after several  lucky steps.
 How many times do you want to leave Paroli with something left?

My advice is to leave if you don´t win both places at the same time. In area 1-36 this will be the case
TWENTY times. Eight times you´ll win both here and there. Eight times you´ll lose both.
And don´t forget Zero.
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: scepticus on March 10, 2017, 05:58:39 PM
Terminator
You need to work out the probabilities of the different groupings over 37 spins - or multiples of 37.
RE has 8
BO has 8
RO has 10
BE has 10
O has 1
Total 37
When Betting RO
you Break-Even if RE wins
you break-even if BO wins
You WIN 2 units if RO wins
You LOSE 2 units if BE wins
You lose 1 unit if 0 wins
Over 37 spins you lose 1 unit.
Strangely  (  ?  )  the same thing happens no matter which group you choose.The RO may occur more often than RE but it is academic if it offers no advantage when betting.
Roulette seems a simple game - until you actually put your money on the table when you find that the UNLIKELY happens all   too  often.
I suggest that you should concentrate more on what you may lose rather than on what you can win.
When something looks obvious ask yourself why everyone else is not betting it. There is usually a reason why not.

Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: Sputnik on March 10, 2017, 06:05:50 PM

From my perspective i would recommend you to stop and turnaround and find another way.

Cheers
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: TERMINATOR on March 10, 2017, 11:58:47 PM
Okay, first let me clarify my position. I have no intention of using this strategy for real money.  I am not claiming I can beat roulette doing this. I understand that the ZERO will put this in the houses favor and I will lose long term. That is obvious, so there's no need to suggest I try a different strategy. I get it.

I am interested in the MATH part which disproves that Red/Odd does not have any more advantage over Red/Even. That’s all.

I am simply confused about the Red/Even and Red/Odd distribution, because according to a couple of posts in this thread, betting on ONE has a higher probability of winning than betting on the OTHER.

Example #1:
JUICE, in reply #6, wrote that betting on Red/Even has a HIGHER chance of hitting than betting on Red/Odd.

Example #2:
Scepticus wrote out the probabilities within 37 spins. He wrote that Red/Odd has a HIGHER chance of winning (10 out of 37) compared to Red/Even (8 out of 37 chance of winning)

Juice is saying the OPPOSITE of Scepticus. So, I'm not the only one who is confused :-) But, for the sake of argument, I am assuming that Scepticus is correct, since there are 2 more numbers in the Red/Odd category.

In any case, my question is the following.

If Red/Odd has a HIGHER chance of WINNING within 37 spins (compared to Red/Even), does this not mean that, on average, Red/Odd will win MORE times than Red/Even, in a 37 spin of the roulette wheel? Specifically, 2 more times?

Yes or No? (I understand both Juice and Scepticus confirming the answer is YES. Correct?)

If the answer is No, why not?

I am so confused  :-)

And Dane, thanks for your advice on leaving if I don't win BOTH bets at the same time. In other words, if the first bet WINS, then PARLAY the 2nd bet. If the 2nd bet is a PUSH then take the Parlay bet down, do not keep it up.
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: juice on March 11, 2017, 03:42:04 AM
Terminator, sorry for the confusion, my answers were based on the trifecta, and I was just pointing out the detriment of any parlay on a narrow winning slot. As for your technical question, I'm not the guy to answer that one, but if I had to guess, I would say yes, there is an edge in the dominant condition .  Peace, juice
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: dobbelsteen on March 11, 2017, 02:08:01 PM
on my blog I have made an analysis for RED/EVEN. For members who are familiar with Excel the program is available. The graphs give a good idea of the weakness of the system. Only with a strategy it can be succesful.
Title: Re: Irregular Distribution
Post by: TERMINATOR on March 11, 2017, 04:00:06 PM
dobbelsteen, I would LOVE to see that analysis in Excel. Could you kindly PM me and send me the link to your Blog? Thanks!

Thanks Juice. Yes, I realize it was for the Trifecta. But, if the "H/L" is removed from the trifecta, leaving just a double bet, I agree with your last statement that it does seem there is an edge in the Dominant category (Red/Odd).

It seems dobbelsteen can clear this matter for me. Because if there IS an edge, it seems we might be able to use this to our advantage SOMEHOW.