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Roulette Forum => Roulette Strategy Discussion => Visual Ballistics => Topic started by: kav on January 05, 2017, 09:39:47 AM

Title: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: kav on January 05, 2017, 09:39:47 AM
Why AP doesn't work:
Practical reasons
Psychological reasons
Legal reasons
Mathematical reasons

Advantage Play, probabilities and gambler's fallacy


Probabilities and Gambler's Fallacy
Many AP players are throwing around the "gambler's fallacy" (GF for short) accusation, when the issue really is probabilities. Probabilities have a deterministic quality. They tell you how things will "end" or look like after a large enough sample of trials. [random Events video]

Advantage Play

I will give you a great advantage. Let's say that the pocket of a specific number on an American wheel is 50% wider than the rest numbers. Imagine that - it is an advantage players dream, right? What it actually means is that this specific number has 3,9% probabilities to show versus 2,6% of the rest of the numbers and versus 2,7% of a number in a fair European wheel.

Now you consider this 1,2% advantage over a fair European wheel number so crucial that you claim you can make a living out of it, yet when I point out the 48,6% probability of Even chances and tell you that Black cannot sleep for too long too often you tell me that anything is possible and my premise is based on Gambler's Fallacy. I'm not "allowed" to expect the 48,6% chances of Black to materialize or have any effect within the next 50 or 100 spins, but your 1,2% advantage will surely take effect and provide you with steady income day in and day out.

Contradiction
The truth is that you can't have it both ways. You can't on one hand claim that the casino will win based on the 2,7% house edge or that you will win based on a 1,2% advantage and at the same time say that one can not depend on Red or Blacks 48,6% probabilities for it to show up.

For you it is always a question if and when and how many times High or Low numbers will appear, yet it is always written in stone and sure as US treasuries that bias numbers will hit more often.

Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: kav on August 20, 2017, 06:55:56 PM
Disclaimer: The above is written with respect to all advantage players. I'm just being argumentative in order to ignite discussion and RESPECTFUL debate.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 20, 2017, 07:43:57 PM
Quote
Why AP doesn't work
This sentence is not right from the begining - AP simply cant - not work , if it not work it is not AP :)
Quote
Let's say that the pocket of a specific number on an American wheel is 50% wider than the rest numbers. Imagine that - it is an advantage players dream, right? What it actually means is that this specific number has 3,9% probabilities to show versus 2,6% of the rest of the numbers and versus 2,7% of a number in a fair European wheel.

Now you consider this 1,2% advantage over a fair European wheel number so crucial
If number is 50% wider it will hit 1.5 times more often and that means, that it have about 46% advantage....you somehow get 3.9% :)....
But even if it is 3.9% then you must compare with minus 2.7% in normal situation  so that is 6.6% better and looks that you not imagine what is 6.6%.... that is huge advantage if know that it is for sure.....
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 20, 2017, 07:49:35 PM
Kav, how would one debate with opponent who don't know the subject? No one would bet one number only..  to realise 1% edge... it's really mean that you will never see your profit.
   Picture in real life looks a bit different, there much more then one number on offer and edges are much more substantial. More numbers mean less variance , more edge mean profit today...

   
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: scepticus on August 20, 2017, 08:22:24 PM

Well ! You got  your wish kav. You ignited Discussion  .
The only  definition of the Gamblers' Fallacy by Professional  Mathematicians  that I have read refers to something  being " Due" and ONLY to that event .
AP only means Advantage Play and is based on the ASSUMPTION that a mathematical  advantage has been gained
. I do not think that the AP in this forum can do what they claim AFTER they have decided what to calculate because there is insufficient time to calculate their many factors before NMB. Therein lies their fallacy
Pointing that out to them incurs  abuse but  no  discussion. So far as I am aware there is no Physicist or Mathematician that accepts the possibility that they can do what they claim . That is why bona-fide AP use a computer to make their calculations.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Real on August 20, 2017, 09:39:29 PM
If a system junkie can't comprehend that they're mind is trapped in the box that's the gambler's fallacy, then why on earth would you expect them to comprehend playing with an advantage?  There's a reason that some system players actually believe that the world is flat.  Some people are beyond reach. 

The job of the system players is to feed the bear.  The job of the ap is to win the money.

"We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid." -Ben Franklin
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: scepticus on August 20, 2017, 11:06:52 PM

Thanks Real for confirming my point that you don't indulge in discussion.
Genuine AP  use a computer for their calculations , you guys don't . Your claim that you don't need one . THAT is my challenge for you to prove but, as usual, you avoid discussion.
So stop sneering at Method players and discuss  with other AP in the forum .
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 21, 2017, 12:11:36 AM
Sceps, if you are already speaking about a subject , probably you could point out for what exactly AP would use a computer?
   I even will give you a hint, possible answers could be:
A) analysis of past data
B) creation of playing model
C) prediction of resulting number ( sector) in current spin.
   You can choose any of these, just please explain, why on your opinion it can not be done without a computer.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: scepticus on August 21, 2017, 12:38:24 AM

Let me make myself clear Mr Perfect.
I will no longer respond to your posts,
You regard me as a Liar while I regard you as a screwball.
I leave it at that .
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 21, 2017, 02:36:57 AM
Scepticus, is it a best you can do? As you see lm not being personal, just helping you to stucture your arguments to explain your point best you can.
   So with the computer we already decided - dismissed. 
   Let's tolk about "many factors" needed to calculate ( mentioned by you previosly) in time to place bets? Could you point them out and explain required time interval nessesary to calculate them, and why on your oppinion it is impossible for me or our fellow AP friends? 
     I very admire your definition of AP being an assumption that math advantage have been gained. In fact it's not. AP ( roulette) is a combination of applied physics, applied statistics and applied mathematics.  Advantage in roulette can be gained in one way only - limiting degrees of freedom of the system. Tools mentioned above are very useful in providing means to find, verify and explore advantage in this game. It's a matter of the fact, wich is undeniable and widely recognised by the experts in this industry. 
    As you can see , l address your statements and provide you discussion that you crave so much, without touching your fragile personality.
I just want that you argument anything that you'v got to say, assuming you'v really got anything...
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 21, 2017, 01:11:35 PM
To prevent future not populated arguments, l would like to state following :
 ADVANTAGE IS OFFERED BY THE WHEEL ( BALL) ITSELF.  It is what it is, can be traced and verified by anyone interested in his local casino.
  There are 2 main phenomenon that offer advantage :
  1. Limit in ball travel path ( works for vb)
  2. Desbalance in number hit frequency  ( good for bias)....
     Wheels generally are not very perfect or very broken, but something in between. ... whatever wheel has inclination to ( more good then broken, or more broken then good) will particularly determine method of prediction and exploration.
   Please keep in mind statements mentioned above if you wanna comment on this tread, let's address any problems or misunderstanding directly, so we can have a productive discussion,  right?
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 21, 2017, 09:49:05 PM
Ask 10 different called AP players, what is their advantage  and edge, I think you become 10 different answers
My advantage at the roulette is my mind and the knowledge of random rows.
A player is not able to discover an anomaly of the occurrence of the numbers. This is also valid for a bias of a fair RNG. 1M spins is not enough to discover real anomalies. Pseudo anomalies are variance of the randomness.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Real on August 21, 2017, 10:30:52 PM
Your advantage from "random rows" isn't an really advantage.    However, advantage players play with a real advantage over the casino which is why they're referred to as being "advantage players."
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: kav on August 22, 2017, 10:17:15 AM
Let's go back to basics and keep it simple.

Gambler's fallacy (https://www.roulette30.com/2014/04/gamblers-fallacy.html) if you think about it, is based on the expectation of the player, that theoretical probabilities would manifest themselves on a limited number of spins. This is why the player thinks that since the probability of red is roughly 50% after 6 Blacks the Red will make a comeback.

In the same sense the AP thinks that the theoretical INCREASED probabilities would manifest themselves in a limited number of spins. Let's say for example that a 8 numbers section has a biased probability of 28% instead of the normal 21,6%. Isn't it gambler's fallacy to expect that this advantage will manifest itself in a limited number of spins?

To put it another way, if Red that has roughly 50% probability can sleep for 17 spins again and again and appear only 33% over a large number of spins, then also your biased numbers can sleep as well. Even biased numbers can have fluctuations and disappear or get cold for considerable periods of time. Believing otherwise is Gambler's Fallacy.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 22, 2017, 10:34:33 AM
There are no difference, limited spins number or not. The only matter is to play numbers, with positive expectattion. AP is that, who can do that enough good.

Of course even playing positive numbers we sometimes loss. You must understand and look to wheel like to your oponent and think,  you are stronger than he or not. If you are stronger - you play and finally will end in positive result.And here is no matter when that  final will come...

That is like if Grandmaster will play chess against simple player, or say if like Lithuania will play basket against Poland. Of course bouth can win , but one side have much bigger chances....
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 22, 2017, 11:24:18 AM
A table gambler thinks he can predict the color of the next spin.
A cilinder player thinks he can predict the  sector or the neighbors on the cilinder the next spin.

After 6x the Voisins du Zero the probability is not changed.

The fallacy is for both gamblers the same. Cilinder players can also use statistic phenomena.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 22, 2017, 12:23:34 PM
 To put it on simple terms... AP is limiting degrees of freedom.
    Let's see what is HE . It's just existence of 1 number ( in USA 2) that casino do not pay. Obviously if you bet zero and it hits they do pay, but payment is reduced comparing with real odds of the event.
   If player gets to " take out some numbers out equation " ( limit degrees of freedom) he will have advantage over casino. It's not because player is superman, but because wheel and ball themselves offer this advantage to the player.
    Anyone can do a scatter chart, take a casino card and look distance between first number ball beat and last number( result)... mark these distances on casino card. Collect 100 trial's this way and you will see yourself where that magical " half of wheel that offer advantage" is.
    Obviously such a test will be a misrepresentation of what is really going on there and good vb player does it a bit different, but such a test is good enough for the purpose.
   Anyone who do the test , will have a chance to answer topic qwestion to himself. You can repeat the test and compare results if any doubts persist. Ball has only that much to jump. 
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: kav on August 22, 2017, 12:36:23 PM
Mr Perfect,

You didn't answer my question about biased numbers going cold.

But to your comment that "ball has only that much to jump:
1. Then there is the difficulty of predicting the 1rst number that ball hits.
2. have you observed online live games where balls do all crazy things?
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 22, 2017, 01:28:49 PM
Quote
Anyone who do the test , will have a chance to answer topic qwestion to himself.
But if all will do this -  not be so many talks in forum  :) . You get mine minde ?  ;)
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 22, 2017, 01:55:26 PM
Sry, Kav, didn't realise sleeping numbers question was directed to me... the thing is that bias is not numbers, but imperfections(defects). This defects affect ball jumps and result in some numbers getting hit more often and others less often then expected probability dictates. All what affects ball jumps will affect resulting numbers as well (conditions). Thats why if player do not want his numbers 'go to sleep', he should stay awake as well in both his data taking and during playing session.
     1. To predict first number ball will hit, player should develop some vb skills, its a good tool for a task, this is exactly what vb is supposed to do.
     2. Online or offline, ball jumps are crazy thing, however can be statistically limited. l wouldn"t advise to play online wheels for someone who can not beat b&m ones first...
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 22, 2017, 02:13:20 PM
Quote
Anyone who do the test , will have a chance to answer topic qwestion to himself.
But if all will do this -  not be so many talks in forum  :) . You get mine minde ?  ;)
And what? Everyone will become a player suddenly, or wheel manufacturers will create a perfect wheel? Not in my life time, l gess. If someone told me from the start how much effort is needed to perform AP properly, l would consider to so something else instead. How many players you know, how many tables were closed in front of your nose because someone else was playing? l know 5 players worldwide and l lost one table only to others so far...
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 22, 2017, 03:26:05 PM
Nobody will become winners and manufacturers also not worry about that. You simply not get mine mind - talk is about forums....
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Real on August 22, 2017, 05:45:37 PM
Quote
Even biased numbers can have fluctuations and disappear or get cold for considerable periods of time. Believing otherwise is Gambler's Fallacy.

Of course biased numbers have fluctuations.  So what?  It's called variance.  Over time the players edge handily dominates the variance.  This means the longer the AP plays, the more they will win. 
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 22, 2017, 09:11:50 PM
Nobody can define the advantage  and edge of an AP player. Without definitions opponents speak different languages.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 22, 2017, 10:21:15 PM
Yes strange guy. Next time you will say, that nobody can define advantage  world chess champion against you , then world boxing champion...

I remember mine maybe first wining more or less serious was against such man,  maybe like you ....He also was certain that i cant prove him, but he was very brave and he accepted mine proposittion to compete against me. We played 100 spins and i must hit right 65 times for big win and 57 for small win . I hitted more than 70.
That guy lost quite serious amount money.
But he was very brave ( or maybe stupid ) but after loss he try his luck second time... and lost again ... :)

You can do something similar,  if you are so sure, that you are right :). I think you can find competitors .....
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Real on August 23, 2017, 02:18:52 AM
Bebediktus,

I've explained to him what the advantage means and how it's computed, but he doesn't understand it.  It's the language barrier.  If he knew what it meant to have an advantage then he wouldn't be claiming to have one with his "random rows."
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 23, 2017, 08:01:14 AM
Advantage play (VB and Bias) is NOT a gambler s fallacy thing.
But its not practical.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 23, 2017, 08:53:41 AM
You can not compare a match between humans and our struggling with the roulette without a mind.
The advantage of a chess player is his knowledge of the game,  his experience his talent and in my case my age.
Bias roulette devices does not consist. Manipulated ones many.

How can we compare an AP player and a statistic player  in a match. I play roulette more than 40 years in a landbased casino and I have never met an real AP player. AP players exist only at forums on internet.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 23, 2017, 09:02:00 AM
Maybe you have meet an advantage player but you didn t realize he was one.
Simply because you do not know what AP means.
So you didn t see the signs.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 23, 2017, 09:07:06 AM
Seriously now...
In my casino I have spotted some tilted wheels ( we need them to apply VB)
In order to be an APer you have to gather at least 100 spins clockwise and 100 anticlockwise to check the scatter after ball drop and see IF there is a constant one.
Then in all these data gathering you have to train your eyes and brain to recognize a cairtain ball rev to the end.
And also make a map wheel speeds in order to follow the rotor speed changes.
Then you have to have at least 100 chips BR to risk.
And then you have to have at least one trained partner that he is betting for you ( in order for the play to be undercovered)
A lot of requirements that are not possible to happen.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 23, 2017, 10:46:40 AM
Duncan, and why these thing's you mention are difficult?
   Take data , yes it will requite time, if you think you will need 200 spins , it may take you one day... l would collect a bit more then that.
    To develop skills of vb..  it may take a week, if you got proper mentor... no need to learn vb while you collect data, make it before in comfort of your home.
   100 chips problem l will not comment,  only play for money you prepared to loose, and if it happen, make sure you got other 100 chips to play.
   About betting partner.... it's very helpful. It's not something you couldn't do yourself dow. 
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 23, 2017, 10:59:36 AM
The skills is the only thing I have.My mentor was Jafco.
In every wheel you have to memorize the ciirtain decleration of the ball in order to find the correct revolution.
Every wheel is different.

Without a partner the game will be soon over ( if you are winning) with NMB.

Winning in the livingroom watching DVD spins is different than real play.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 23, 2017, 11:18:04 AM

The advantage of a chess player is his knowledge of the game,  his experience his talent
Exactly the same is in roulette - some simply have better understanding of game, bigger experience and maybe some talent which not have others.
If you come to wheel and want to play positive - you must have some specifical knowledges and knowledges about actual wheel. without these knowledges simply imposible play  AP. I almoust sure that you such knowledges not have, because other, will not be such dispute.

Quote
I play roulette more than 40 years in a landbased casino and I have never met an real AP player.
I play 25 and also not met .... but i saw two who played better than me...
Quote
AP players exist only at forums on internet.
I not met in past 5 years some new player, which play AP and i not know him from earlier...
Are few, which are in forums 20 years so much earlier, than you come to forums.

And write they for some specifical reasons. Say me write simply to kill time in travels, or  to rest from trainings or researchings. By writing i have chance to meet somebody who play AP in other way and i can say a bit to learn something from him. I not have any intentions to teach others how to play right and i at all not want, that will be more AP players in the world  :) .....So if you play 40 year and your play is not AP - that is only good for me  :)
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 23, 2017, 12:41:14 PM
 Duncan, Jafco is super helpful, but only for these who take private lessons. I can fix your vb problems in 30 min, assuming you got general understanding about a subject.
   Key to Jafco method is constantly readjusting in how many revolutions till the end you predict.
It's a good method and it has its merit.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 23, 2017, 12:45:40 PM
LoL

The VB problems I have is boring to scout the wheels to find the one with the best advantage and no partner to co apperate with this.

I can take advantage of 2 Diamonds and even predict 2 hot zones .
My prediction in the correct rev is super accurate .

I don t need VB. with 35 chips BR I can win the 2:1 bets

Good luck with VB
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: scepticus on August 23, 2017, 02:22:21 PM

" A lot of requirements not likely to happen "
Repeat
Repeat
Repeat
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 23, 2017, 03:41:27 PM
Duncan, l like to scout for wheels, more difficult they are- better!!! I enjoy scout for wheels l can not beat at the moment. It's because these l can, provide me stable income in any moment l want it, l just go there and take money. And these l can not, give me fuel to become better player. Up till now there was no wheels l didn't find how to beat and l do not care if it's online or offline,  if it has dominant diamonds or if time for mnb is favorable. ... and it's not because lm a superman, but because l know that any wheel has a weekness and given enough time l will find it.
  If you are so good as you say, then problem is not vb, but it's user.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 23, 2017, 04:08:37 PM
In the casino I have seen a lot of different kind of gamblers. As long as nobody can tell me what advantage is, I can not recognize an AP player. Wheel watchers, DS players, system players, pattern players, number writers and random players etc. Thinking you can beat the house advantage is the fallacy of all roulette players.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: ybot on August 23, 2017, 04:35:28 PM
Duncan, l like to scout for wheels, more difficult they are- better!!! I enjoy scout for wheels l can not beat at the moment. It's because these l can, provide me stable income in any moment l want it, l just go there and take money. And these l can not, give me fuel to become better player. Up till now there was no wheels l didn't find how to beat and l do not care if it's online or offline,  if it has dominant diamonds or if time for mnb is favorable. ... and it's not because lm a superman, but because l know that any wheel has a weekness and given enough time l will find it.
  If you are so good as you say, then problem is not vb, but it's user.
Hi, I do believe you cannot beat any wheel no matter what.
Most wheel are random or have a very small edge below HE.
There are many APs here that might find funny the way you state you can beat any wheel.
Casino business wins multibillion dollars, I guess it takes huge effort to beat most wheels.
Just to comment.
ybot
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 23, 2017, 04:49:52 PM
 Ybot, did you  ever told your trackers about this "opinions" of yours? All the people working with you will be super curios to know what you think about wheels in general. Or are you becoming system player yourself?
  Just to comment. :).
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 23, 2017, 04:53:48 PM
Mr Perfect.
I have seen the videos of you in utube. Your knowledge and skills are very limited.
Your wheel has a huge decleration that screams for the right rev and u can t find it LoL.
You  are not even able to follow different wheel speeds.
I really can t understand why you didn t learn the basics from Jafco ... 

Anyway... I don t care for VB anymore...been there done that and I was winning at the time...
Anyone who says AP is easy its obvious he doesn t know what he is speaking about.

I have a mechanical betting that I sit at the table pen and papper , write some spins and start playing without watching wheels etc.

Happy winnings.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: ybot on August 23, 2017, 05:03:21 PM
Hi mr Perfect,  I guess you know me but I do not know you.
I felt curiosity how to beat some wheel I use to give up.
We never end to learn something new every month.

Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 23, 2017, 05:20:02 PM
 Hi, Ybot, l was the one who gave you book that you were looking 3 years for . Hi,Ale ;).
       Duncan@ if my wheel is that easy as you say, probably you wouldn't mind to show your great skills on skype in real time? We could make a friendly competition.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Real on August 23, 2017, 06:59:40 PM
Quote
I have a mechanical betting that I sit at the table pen and papper , write some spins and start playing without watching wheels etc.

Duncan,

Your comment is a big red flag indicating that you don't grasp the math very well.  If you believe that a mechanical system can work, then you're likely not able to comprehend how to correctly implement visual ballistics/wheel watcher.  This is why it seems so impossible for you.  By the way, it does require some effort, it's not easy and not everyone can do it. 

Quote
In order to be an APer you have to gather at least 100 spins clockwise and 100 anticlockwise to check the scatter after ball drop and see IF there is a constant one.
Then in all these data gathering you have to train your eyes and brain to recognize a cairtain ball rev to the end.
And also make a map wheel speeds in order to follow the rotor speed changes.
Then you have to have at least 100 chips BR to risk.

You find collecting 200 spins to be too time consuming and intimidating?  Really???   I'll sometimes collect in the thousands.

And a 100 chip bankroll?  I hate to tell you this, but I usually have at least a 300 or 400 unit bankroll.  If you can't afford a 100 unit bankroll then you shouldn't be gambling.

Also, you can't play it online.  Even if you were lucky enough to win, you can't win much online because the casino will freeze your account and keep your money.  That's the way it is.  They won't pay consistent winners.  They are predatory, and they only want losers.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Real on August 23, 2017, 07:20:48 PM
Quote
Bias roulette devices does not consist. Manipulated ones many.

 You've never tracked for bias, so how would you know?  Furthermore, have you ever tracked wheels outside of Belgium?  Have you seen more than 10 or 20 wheels in your entire life?
Quote
How can we compare an AP player and a statistic player  in a match.

It's simple.  The AP player has an edge.  The statistic player doesn't.

Quote

I play roulette more than 40 years in a landbased casino and I have never met an real AP player. AP players exist only at forums on internet.

Gambling off an on for a handful of spins at a time doesn't make you knowledgeable of how to beat the wheel, and what's really out there.  I believe you when you say you've played at A CASINO off and on for 40 years...and that's the problem.   You've probably never been in other casinos except one... and you've probably never looked at more than a handful of wheels.   So it's not unusual for a casual player to never notice a biased wheel or encounter a professional.  Your experience is limited to that of the average passive player, and your knowledge about the gaming device, and history of the game is consequently very limited as well when compared to that of an AP and or professional player. 

If the AP is good, then you shouldn't know they were ever there.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 23, 2017, 08:14:18 PM
If the Expected Value increase 1% by a bias then there is a large defect of the device. This is from enginering view impossible. stay there is a negative profit expectation of 1,5%. You can better play the ECs on a La Partage roulette. As an engineer I do not believe in bias wheels. I do not doubt the fairness of legal controlled roulette equipment.
I believe in AP fallacy.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 23, 2017, 08:46:23 PM
On bias we sometimes  have 20-30% advantage....and bias is not only AP, are other ways, which sometimes give us 70% advantage....

What you talk show simply total not understanding. But not worry, - you are not alone - many who not understand from where we get advantage... :)
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: scepticus on August 23, 2017, 09:07:51 PM

On bias we sometimes  have 20-30% advantage....and bias is not only AP, are other ways, which sometimes give us 70% advantage....Bebedictus

"9-30-70% advantage.! :D
Another AP who is  influenced by the moon !
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 23, 2017, 09:27:44 PM
Man , nobody are interested in 1% edge when possible get 10 times or more  -  bigger. If you that not understand its pitty , but that is natural and facts . From here you can believe or not - that is your choise. But here you can always try find oponents for compete if you think that i am no right. If you are right you can win maybe nice money....or you will prove, that we are simply talkers... :)
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Real on August 23, 2017, 10:21:19 PM
If the Expected Value increase 1% by a bias then there is a large defect of the device. This is from enginering view impossible. stay there is a negative profit expectation of 1,5%. You can better play the ECs on a La Partage roulette. As an engineer I do not believe in bias wheels. I do not doubt the fairness of legal controlled roulette equipment.
I believe in AP fallacy.

1. Wow it's obvious that you've never tracked a wheel.
2. You're clearly not a structural engineer.
3. Every wheel is at the very least biased beyond 1% from the normal.   I know this because I have tracked hundreds of wheels.  On some of them I have over 300k spins. 
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: scepticus on August 23, 2017, 11:53:23 PM

Bebediktus
I did seek a challenge from 2 AP in this forum .They rejected my challenge . I think it was because they cannot do what they claim and I don't think you can either. Would it not be evidence that they could if they accepted my challenge- me A Sceptic ?. I would  be able to post here that they CAN do as they claim That they refused  suggests that all you  guys do is Tawk !  ;D
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 24, 2017, 02:12:25 AM
Scepticus,Wight 2 arguments egainst each other:
 1. Make a demonstration for potential team mate or buyer who genuinely wanna learn and be helpful in general, find someone useful for a future , normal adequate person.
 2. Free show off in front of someone who entire life is gambling, clearly is jealous of AP players, do not wanna learn or buy anything plus risk to be added to black list, add there lost income and wasted time to learn ....
      Do you still think that AP do not wanna show you anything because you are right? Or is it because your attitude to the A Play in general?
   What is there to gain and what to loose? As for me, this risk is not reasonable, simply unmotivated. 
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 24, 2017, 07:45:09 AM
Quote
I did seek a challenge from 2 AP in this forum .They rejected my challenge . I think it was because they cannot do what they claim and I don't think you can either.
I think, if you suggested to compeete and they rejected, that reject was done by other reason. Firstly you must understand that nobody want to spend time that somebody to prove to you and this must be starting point of all your thinking - something want to see - find how to create interess ...

Second moment  is that you must detalise what you think that they cant do ? Maybe you think that these AP know which will be next number 90% of cases. Then yes - that they cant do  :) . More, if these AP will play 1-10 spins - result not will be different from random  result. But if they will play 50 and more in most cases result will be much better, than random.

Third moment - here is simply logic - ball fly till it fall and stop - practically is nothing other, like say disc fly in atletic  competittion, with only difference, that competitors must try not throw disc as far as they can - but to guess how long will be fly, after observing half fly distance.
I can guarantie, that - all good athlets will predict distance with accuracy of 1 meter or maybe even more.
Something similar do AP.

Fourth moment is that in internet are plenty videos, how some peoples predict. You maybe think that these videos  are artificial ? Maybe few - but most is really writed without any preparation and something similar these peoples can do in reality, if wheel will be similar.
I even saw one video of Steeve, where he even show all process collecting data and play.

I think that with you main problem is, that if even you see somebody playing good - you still not understand that. So you are like blind man, who try to find mushrooms in the forest.

 You can believe or not AP how play the same will play further, but for you, if you are player - not believing do bad job, because this way you close doors for possible winings. Of course, if you are casino stuff, then all your talks here looks very natural....
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 24, 2017, 08:26:18 AM
Caleb its a different thing to collect spins for Bias and different for recording scatter patterns.
For bias u can go for a drink and come back and look at spin board and record the results.
In VB u have to be ON the wheel and look the strike point number and the distance the ball landed.

anyway having the skills say nothing because I do not have the patience needed and the partners.

the partner is not only nessesary for camo.
He is also nessesary for betting... because when u are next to the wheel to take prediction u can t fly near the table and bet numbers that are scatered on the table... and u certaintly can t give to the dealer and say bet the 5 and the neibours because this is not a camo.

anyway VB is not practical...

As for bias... I don t have opinion cause I have never played this way... and if i don t know something i can t express opinion.

Mr perfect I don t care for competitions. There is no point.

If you are so passioned with VB , I suggest you to learn how to adjast the prediction according to different rotor speend and I also suggest u to learn the VB2 of forester.

Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 24, 2017, 08:33:43 AM
Duncan, why you would sudjest me to learn something that l know and understand better then you or forester?
   I can spare you the time for typing with one qwestion only. What the hell in this world show the number under the ball in the end of vb2 time? Forester doesn't know the answer, l assume neither know you.
   My opinion aboit both forester and his vb2 is very low indeed. Because neither work properly. Or why do you think l had to create vb3? Vb3 is just a way to make vb2 work properly.
   BTW,  you probably do not know, but forester didn't invented vb2, he just red about it on German forum , and gess what? He misunderstood what he red there. That's where from comes this " poorly explained vb2" thing.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 24, 2017, 08:49:07 AM
AP players love to speak and write about their advantage. No AP player can explain his advantage.
I read they claim an advantage up to 30%.
Do they mean;
1) 30% win chance.
2) 30% of the start stake,
3) 30% of the sum of the session bets.
4) 30 % of what???

As  a system player i am the meaning that a profit of 1 a 2% of the total bets is realistic.

I have demonstrated more than once my manner of playing on internet. None AP player participated.

REAL@ do not worry me. I was an chief engineer and I thought propulsion equipments  and maintenance
 for ocean going ships.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 24, 2017, 08:51:01 AM
Vb2 works perfectly in reasonable rotor speeds.
VB2 is created for you that you can t find the correct rev otherwise.
Your utube videos shows the lack of your skills and knowledge.
What u say here doesn t matter.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 24, 2017, 09:12:49 AM
Duncan, you just proved my assumption about your understanding to be true, and you do not even realise it.
   You say " vb2 was created to not miss revolution" ..  this is stupidity, vb2 do not identify revolutions. Besides, there is no such a thing as "correct" revolution for vb. Take timings of any revolution you would identify and just look values for let's say 10 spins. You can go to my tread about vb3 , l posted some timings there... how many of them you would identify correctly be it by vb2 or traditional vb?
     Unfortunately, what l say " doesn't make a difference" for you, it's because your lack of knowledge and understanding makes you blind.
You misunderstood jafco vb and vb2 as well, as for me you take it as a religion without even trying to understand it properly. 
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 24, 2017, 09:22:56 AM
vb2 gives linearity on correct prediction in 2-3 different revs.
Check it IF you can.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 24, 2017, 09:23:07 AM
Doblesteen, your third option is correct. This is exactly how advantage is measured in case of flat bet.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 24, 2017, 09:42:34 AM
vb2 gives linearity on correct prediction in 2-3 different revs.
Check it IF you can.
Duncan, l understand religion of vb2, l used to be follower as well ;).
    Reality is a bit different. The problem is that vb2 do not offer real algorithm of adjustment for deferent timings ball may take ( decceleration) , besides that is simply not practical, not only because of decceleration , but because of restriction in rotor speeds and cases where you can not directly see the ball at the end of the time ( it can happen to be on half wheel you didn't have visibility).
   I will tell you more, error of vb2 of 15 pokets in reality is 18. And it's for a ball only!!! You need huge advantage on offer to overcome it. This error is due to the ball going next posible hit place being next diamond on most of the cases. Vb2 predicts in a fixed ball speed between revolutions and wich one was " correct" you can gess only, but you need to gess right to adjust properly, wich with vb2 you simply can not... at least not the way it was explained by forester. His sudjestion of moving place of starting time is a cretinism. You can not do it on titled wheel without distortion of ball timings. Only vb where you should move a place of " revolution identification" is jafco one, it's done to move "point set" or exact revolution timing target, if you prefer it this way.
    I'm out now can't perform test, but vb2 results for these timings will be similar to traditional vb, just the zone will be a bit wider and edge distrebuted to cover hole between positive zones.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 24, 2017, 10:14:51 AM
What is the largeness of an AP wager? Is there a ratio between the hit percentage and the largeness of the wager?
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 24, 2017, 10:27:35 AM
Quote
AP players love to speak and write about their advantage. No AP player can explain his advantage.
I read they claim an advantage up to 30%.
Do they mean;
From here starts all your problems - you not know what means advantage and what means %....

Advantage in 30% means that if you made  bets in total sum of 1000$ then after that you must have 1300$ in front of you.
Quote
As  a system player i am the meaning that a profit of 1 a 2% of the total bets is realistic.
For VB player for bias player it is realistic, but not for system player which all bets do having  minus 2.7% . You learned mathematic - must understand if always add -2.7% - can  get positive number....But you can think as you want for me that is without difference - even better, that are such peoples...  :)

When we play we never know which advantage exact we have. We can only calculate that after game . But if we calculate advantage week , month or year and it is about in some stable value , we can say that we usually have such advantage. If i will count all mine plays in last 10 years , I maybe will get number  around 4%, but i played also against wheels where i had 30% and even 70% and that was not few bets but maybe several days or even weeks.

In VB play advantage depends on many factors - say it depends on air temperature, or on air pressure as usually love say some players. But that is not right because really advantage depends on ball scatering  and to it do effect that temperature or presure. So almoust all depends on scatering - all other maybe have some efect but not such which can drastically all change....
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 24, 2017, 10:36:26 AM
What is the largeness of an AP wager? Is there a ratio between the hit percentage and the largeness of the wager?
It's always a trade off between posible variance and return per let's say hour. If you bet 1 number only,  you may have super edges... 100nds% , but in reality you still may not realise a profit today...
    Let's see other case, you may be betting half wheel, but advantage is 10 % or less... ( not always, sometimes more) , you will make money today, but not much.
    Generally you will be better to bet something between 4 and 9 numbers in total, unless you really need to cover entire sector... 9 is more or less optimal for general cases.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 24, 2017, 10:52:50 AM
Bebedictus you have not studied DTOP.A system  gives a loss after more spins than DTOP.A dozen or a 12 number bet has a DTOP of about 150 spins. A loss of 2,7% is reached after about 250 spins. A system player plays normally smaller sessions. Loss and win are unpredictable. Only with a strategy and hit and run a profit of 1 a 2 % is realistic . 2,7% loss is only valid for long run sessions.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 24, 2017, 11:10:26 AM
"""""""""""" cases where you can not directly see the ball at the end of the time ( it can happen to be on half wheel you didn't have visibility). """"""

Only by this statement its obvious that you don t even know the wheel number order.

You do NOT need  to change point where you apply the 1,2secs time.... the indication number after the time of VB2 will be always in visible place and all you have to do is add or minus the pockets according to rotor speeds.

Its seems clearly that your understanding in Vb2 is 0.

So you can t comment on something u can t understand.

I am tired speaking with you.
Update your knowledge correctly ( and your skills) and then come and talk to me.
Until then practice and read.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 24, 2017, 11:15:22 AM
LoL I am still laughing with the BLIND position you said !!!!!!!!!!!
So you also have problem with the traditional VB ... because if the prediction must be taken from 6 ocklock on the wheel, what will u do ! LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL

Man... you don t even know the basics.

get serious and don t mentuon again that u are an Aper.
Respect the Apers and don t ruin their image.

In traditional VB or VB2 or anything we always take prediction from 12 ocklock ( enough visible for u??) and we are adding or reducing pockets in our head.

Caleb is doing the same thing.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 24, 2017, 11:22:21 AM
Quote
You do NOT need  to change point where you apply the 1,2secs time.

OK i think in discussions about VB2 can participate only members of Forester forum, so maybe easier is to write nicks in that forum and all will be clear who is who.
And one more simple task - which must be wheel speed that we can apply 1.2sec as reference time ? VB2 starts from understanding this.If ou will gave answer fast, then you maybe understand this method   :)
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 24, 2017, 11:25:15 AM
Duncan, it's all very simple, l got a Skype and a wheel, my camera and Internet connection is very good. My wheel is very easy , as you say, curently it's clearly 2 pin game that you obviously have no problems to beat, right?
    So why wouldn't you add me on a Skype and show your great skill in real time? Because l personally think that your tolk if as far away from reality as it can be. You do not even need to predict final number( you couldn't be bothered to collect or use the data) , strike would do just fine. Or your great skill is so great that can not be demonstrated to simple fellow like me, you just prefere to share your wisdom on a publick forum without a need to back up anything?
    I gess the one who will be laughing it's not you after all...
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: scepticus on August 24, 2017, 11:26:03 AM

Isn't jafco's method dependent on using a computer ? Does he not sell a pre-programmed computer ? If so then you cannot compare his method with the AP in this forum - other than the observations . I have heard about people profiting with AP when using a computer but none where they have won without using a computer. Strange that .
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 24, 2017, 11:31:47 AM
Blind position !!!!!!!!!!! LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 24, 2017, 11:34:42 AM
Sceps, even jafco himself predicts with his computer better then without it. But it's only due to processing timings better ability of computer. His computer''s algorithm is exactly the same as for his vb. You can look to it as a calculator based on microcontroller to count pokets better.
   Computer in general used because people get tired, but computer doesn't,  so it permits to play for longer without "human erro"r mistakes.
   My computer, for example , do not even predict, it just control stability of variables needed for a prediction( adjustment).
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Duncan on August 24, 2017, 11:41:12 AM
Mr Perfect are you the old member Lucky Strike in VLS?
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 24, 2017, 11:43:39 AM
Blind position !!!!!!!!!!! LoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooL
Well, Duncan,  it's a problem for me, forester or anyone who wanna apply vb2, looks like this problem of vb2 make your laugh,  unfortunately, you are unable to argument your laugh or answer Bebedictus simple question about correct speed of wheel for 1.2 second mentioned by yourself. I can only add that you do not know wich deceleration is assumed for this exact time ( mentioned by you ) or on wich wheels it would/ wouldn't be upliable. 
    It just makes me belive that your laugh grounded on your brain desability to keep up with the task. Am l wrong? It's my time to laugh,  but in my case l do it senserely.  Hahahahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahah
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 24, 2017, 11:45:25 AM
Mr Perfect are you the old member Lucky Strike in VLS?
no. Lucky is sputnik here. My login was sergiy on myroulette ,  after sergiy was banned l took name of Sith. What is yours ? ;)     l never posted on vlc
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 24, 2017, 12:36:01 PM

In traditional VB or VB2 or anything we always take prediction from 12 ocklock ( enough visible for u??) and we are adding or reducing pockets in our head.

Caleb is doing the same thing.
Duncan lm forced to start qwoting due to your going to past posts modifying them.
   In vb2 we are taking our reading under the ball!!! Not under 12 o'clock.  If you do not get the point of compensation systems, why you tolk about them? Are you trying to cover stupidity you posted here so far? It's pointless, forum members already got an idea of your incredible skill level wich can not be argumented, explained or demonstrated.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: lucky_strike on August 24, 2017, 03:21:33 PM


Hello Duncan i am lucky_strike and i can see you mention my name.
I would never talk or pretend when it boils down to advantage play.

MrPerfect name is Sergiy from London.

I don't join this discussions as i don't agree we anything some members write and don't share my opinion about what is wrong and right.
I start to pick my topics to join as i don't want to waste empty talks and empty claims discussions - i feel there is a waste of energy and karma.

As long i make a buck i am happy and with no worrys.

Cheers
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Real on August 24, 2017, 05:19:45 PM
Only with a strategy and hit and run a profit of 1 a 2 % is realistic .

Only 1 or 2% profit?  That's horrible!

 APs aim for several times there buy in.  Profits of several hundred percent. 
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 25, 2017, 09:11:40 AM
With 2% profit you can have a very pretty living. With 30% profit every AP player must be millionaire.

I never met players who note their buy ins. I wonder if you are a player and if do you note your game?

Yesterday I won 110 units within 2 hours . The W/L ratio about 4 and the profit percentage about 16%. I only wager on statistic phenomenons.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 25, 2017, 10:42:51 AM
Quote
Yesterday I won 110 units within 2 hours .
I hope unit is minimum 100$ ?
Quote
With 2% profit you can have a very pretty living.
I have minimal twice higer profit and from that to live good is impossible. Something is wrong with your mathematic.  With 2% is imposible bet 100$ per number, only if you are Super millionair , but if so - you can find safer way how to use money....
Quote
With 30% profit every AP player must be millionaire.
Probably yes, if they will have such advantage every day and on all wheels. But more real screnario that casino simply will ban that mans which can reach such or will changes game rules.... :)
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: dobbelsteen on August 25, 2017, 01:31:33 PM
If you play 2 hours a day with a profit of 100 units tax free, you have an income of 2400 euros a month. That is more than an average income in the Netherlands. For a profit of 2%, you have to buy in 5000 euros. My average buy in is 50 euros. That means 100 hits. The W/L ratio was 4. So I had to play about 63 spins. I play on 4 tables. On average 18 spins each table.That is not a hard work.
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: Bebediktus on August 25, 2017, 02:34:06 PM
Yes you can win sometimes , but in your sentence main is first word IF ! But you not play every day and not have profit of these 100 euros daily. I know several peoples who really win and many who only talk that win . Their talks are different. So I can from how talk man understand if he wins or not with very high accuracy.....
You simply talk about what you wish, like about reality.....
Title: Re: Is Advantage Play based on Gambler's Fallacy?
Post by: MrPerfect. on August 25, 2017, 03:50:00 PM
Dobbelsteen. Reality of this game is harsh... especially for individual player.
   I do not know how others doing, l can tell you only for myself and here is my short storystep by step:
  1. Bought forester rc..  1year to understand it wasn't made for win, huge loss ( around 5k)
  2. Start to play vb with foresters rc as a timer..  another year loss ( around 2-3k )
3. Made proper research on my wheel first
 4. Made my own timer , 3 month - all losses recovered, first profits.. 
 5. Created vb3, made my rc- stable income by vb. ( around 40k)
 6. Got lazy started to look for online wheels... much less money then playing b&m..  overall profit less then 30k.
 7. Sent online to fu..k of and back to b&m, found easy wheel and just taking money 2-3 times a week, hope they do not remove it ...
     It's 5 years of f***..ng brain about this game !!! I made more  money from long term investment in criptocurencies this year then playing. There are more easy ways to make money and roulette is definitely not a money making paradise. 
   Now just waiting to be banned on casino lm playing ( preparing one big game) , after gonna be playing markets and focus on selling roulette computers.