### Poll

#### Would you prefer to bet a specific number for 37 successive spins (for 1 win) OR to bet that ANY number will hit twice in a row (bet last number) ??

bet a specific number for 37 successive spins (for 1 win)
2 (50%)
bet that ANY number will hit twice in a row (bet last number for 1 win)
1 (25%)
bet with both ways simultaneously and keep 2 separate totals
1 (25%)
bet with both ways simultaneously and keep 1 overall total
0 (0%)
none of those options
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 4

### Author Topic: What's more possible?  (Read 4663 times)

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#### BlueAngel

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##### What's more possible?
« on: January 22, 2016, 07:50:38 AM »
What's the possibility for a specific number to appear at least once within 37 spins?

What's the possibility for any number to repeat twice in a row within 37 spins?

Another question which I had published several months ago was:

what has better probability for profit?
1) bet 35 numbers for 1 spin
2) bet 1 number for 35 spins

Seems simple but it's not, actually are not the same these 2 options.
35 numbers have 94.6% chance to hit and win 1 unit, but 1 number has approximately 62.16% to appear at least once within 35 spins and its profit could be anything from 1 up to 35 units.

So what do you consider more possible?
Is the more possible option an overall better selection in regards with its respective payout?
Please explain why you choose one option rather the rest of the options.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2016, 12:38:21 PM by BlueAngel »

#### dobbelsteen

##### Re: What's more possible?
« Reply #1 on: January 26, 2016, 09:07:54 AM »
Compute the loss of a true sample of 37 spins and make your conclussion.

See also  "whois the smartest player", the one who plays 1 unit on a dozen or the one who plays one unit on the other 2 dozens

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: What's more possible?
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2016, 10:23:47 AM »
Compute the loss of a true sample of 37 spins and make your conclussion.

See also  "whois the smartest player", the one who plays 1 unit on a dozen or the one who plays one unit on the other 2 dozens

The answer is not so simple...

If the odds for a specific number to come at least once within 37 spins is 1/37 or 2.7%, then for any number to appear at least once within 37 spins is 64.86 % (on average).

The possibility for a specific number to come two times in a row is (1 in 37*37) = once every 1369 results, but for any number is (1 in 1369 / 37) = once every 37 results or 2.7% (on average).

So theoretically it's equally possible but I've never seen the same number twice in a row to be absent for such long as a single number can be absent (600+ spins)
If you doubt about it, you might want to check your records and/or run simulations.

If you agree with me, then we conclude that this is the best option for selecting a single number.

#### december

##### Re: What's more possible?
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2016, 10:41:50 AM »
Yes, I see what you mean.
This could be something to think about...

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: What's more possible?
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2016, 12:28:05 PM »
Yes, I see what you mean.
This could be something to think about...

The reason why this happens it's because we will never see 37 different numbers in 37 spins.

#### december

##### Re: What's more possible?
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2016, 01:35:27 PM »
I'm confused because there is no common degrading comments.
What happened?

#### Real

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##### Re: What's more possible?
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2016, 09:00:11 PM »
A few year ago while running RNG sims an internet friend produced 37 unique outcomes in 37 spins.

Most people see even rarer events every time they look at a reader board.  For example, the last 20 spins.  What the prob. of the numbers hitting in the exact order in which they hit? 20^37th.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2016, 09:05:14 PM by Real »

#### BlueAngel

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##### Re: What's more possible?
« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2016, 09:15:00 PM »
A few year ago while running RNG sims an internet friend produced 37 unique outcomes in 37 spins.

Most people see even rarer events every time they look at a reader board.  For example, the last 20 spins.  What the prob. of the numbers hitting in the exact order in which they hit? 20^37th.

I assume your friend used a kind of pseudo-RNG, right?
Do you believe this could ever happen in real wheel?
Correct me if I'm wrong but I think there is difference between pseudo-RNG, RNG and live casino conditions

#### december

##### Re: What's more possible?
« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2016, 10:15:25 PM »
O, not again...