### Author Topic: 2nd dozen 2 times in 26 spins  (Read 3694 times)

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#### kav

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##### 2nd dozen 2 times in 26 spins
« on: October 05, 2015, 08:55:47 PM »
Last Friday in the casino, I observed the 2nd dozen to not appear for 18 spins and appear only 2 times in 26 spins.

#### Reyth

##### Re: 2nd dozen 2 times in 26 spins
« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2015, 02:39:04 AM »

The 18th spin hit 1465 times out of 3,506,503 spins which is 0.0004177951651545714 or 1 out of 2393 if my calculations are correct.  Because I am mentally slow and mathematically challenged (and lazy like you say) I have not yet figured out how to calculate aggregates like 2 appearances in 26 spins.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2015, 02:49:01 AM by Reyth »

#### scepticus

##### Re: 2nd dozen 2 times in 26 spins
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2015, 04:06:23 AM »
Reyth
I am not a mathematician but , leaving aside the zero, might this  be calculated as;
26 spins x 3 ( 3 dozens )  = 78
Then calculates as 78 x 77 divided by 2 x 1 = 3003 which gives us a ballpark figure of the likliehood ?

##### Re: 2nd dozen 2 times in 26 spins
« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2015, 10:28:33 PM »
Last Friday in the casino, I observed the 2nd dozen to not appear for 18 spins and appear only 2 times in 26 spins.
That's an excellent outcome if you're chasing the last two dozens to show!

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#### Reyth

##### Re: 2nd dozen 2 times in 26 spins
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2015, 12:03:45 AM »
Reyth
I am not a mathematician but , leaving aside the zero, might this  be calculated as;
26 spins x 3 ( 3 dozens )  = 78
Then calculates as 78 x 77 divided by 2 x 1 = 3003 which gives us a ballpark figure of the likliehood ?

Sorry Scep, I'm not the guy to ask that question.  Since statisticians prove their theories by experimentation, I am happy "flipping that coin" 16M times and just bean counting the results.  I think formulas tend to be approximations and since there are so many people that believe in the single spin theory, they need to be proven by experiment to make sure they are even correct.

#### scepticus

##### Re: 2nd dozen 2 times in 26 spins
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2015, 01:36:23 AM »
Reyth
I am not a mathematician but , leaving aside the zero, might this  be calculated as;
26 spins x 3 ( 3 dozens )  = 78
Then calculates as 78 x 77 divided by 2 x 1 = 3003 which gives us a ballpark figure of the likliehood ?

Sorry Scep, I'm not the guy to ask that question.  Since statisticians prove their theories by experimentation, I am happy "flipping that coin" 16M times and just bean counting the results.  I think formulas tend to be approximations and since there are so many people that believe in the single spin theory, they need to be proven by experiment to make sure they are even correct.

Nor am I, Reyth. Nor am I !
Don't forget that I am the one who doesn't accept the Long Run while most others accept it .
Not that I question everything.
I remember the joke  of grafitti being written on a wall " QUESTION EVERYTHING " and underneath was
written "  WHY ? "

#### Reyth

##### Re: 2nd dozen 2 times in 26 spins
« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2015, 01:52:58 AM »
LOL.  You probably won't believe that's the first time I have ever read that joke but its true. : D