### Author Topic: Help:How to win if dozen hit=30%  (Read 4832 times)

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#### weird

##### Help:How to win if dozen hit=30%
« on: August 03, 2015, 03:38:55 AM »
Gentlemen,
Ut widely accepted that unless some weird happening, Dozen will hit around 30%, in long term spins bet.

Thus if we, assumed that in the next 100spins, there will be 30hit of a single dozen, what strategy will we apply to win at least 1unit?

=====================
one of the strategy =14progression.

11111111111111=bet 1 for 14time, lose all =-14
22222222222222=bet 2 for 14time, lose all=28=-42net
33333333333333=-42=-84need to win all '3' to neutral.
66666666666666=-84=-168need to win all '6' to neutral.
12x14=-168=-336
24x14=-336=-672
48x14=-672

of course we need to get more hit, at the initial spins to win.

#### Harryj

##### Re: Help:How to win if dozen hit=30%
« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2015, 05:22:34 PM »
Gentlemen,
Ut widely accepted that unless some weird happening, Dozen will hit around 30%, in long term spins bet.

From a roulette players point of view this is entirely meaningless information. he/she needs a target to shoot at. Mathmatically each dozen should appear once in every 3 spins. If we allow 3 spins for zero, each dozen should appear 97/3 times each 100 spins.ie 32.33%. This information would be more meaningful if we said each dozen should be 3.23 spins apart. At least that is a target we can aim for !

Unfortunately chance doesn't like maths and generally refuses to coopperate. Dozens can bunch together in streaks of 3 or 4 or even more, or they can disappear for more than 20 spins. Requiring a progression out of all preportion to the returns. As you showed in your calculation. How then do we find our target ??

The answer is simple , but, unfortunately, laborious. We need to play, one spin at a time, hundreds, nay thousands, of spins and note where each dozen fell. Then we need to collate that data, noting the gap between each appearance of each dozen. NOW WE HAVE DATA THAT IS MEANINGFUL
We can establish, in real terms, the average between the appearance of each dozen, but FAR MORE IMPORTANT. we can establish the range at which most dozen hits occur ! We only bet this "WINNING RANGE". Before the "range" our bets are VIRTUAL, after the 'Range" we don't bet at all ! In this way we can, not only, vastly improve our W/L ratio, but illiminate those costly progressions.

Harry

#### dobbelsteen

##### Re: Help:How to win if dozen hit=30%
« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2015, 09:05:50 PM »
Bet one unit on a dozen and I  predict a positive balance within 100 spins. I can not predict after howmany spins. The chance that it happens after the first spin is about 33%.
I agree with Harry that the question is meaningless.

#### weird

##### Re: Help:How to win if dozen hit=30%
« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2015, 01:11:21 AM »
Hi Harry and Dobblesteen.
With Respect.

Appreciate them.

If , say,
if we have a 'single dozen' stategy that,
will always hit around 30win ,
in any permutation, in every 100 spins.

Then what progression should we apply to win ?
=============

and ,
[this another question, not really related tothe first question],

if after 100 spins session, we need to cut loss,

then how many sessions of profitable win ,

to recover the previous session loss?

eg.
losing ONe session of 100spins=-X dollar
winning session of 100spins=half of X.
or 1/3 of X...

then need around two, or three set of win sessions to recover a session losses.

#### albalaha

##### Re: Help:How to win if dozen hit=30%
« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2015, 02:27:53 AM »
No strategy can beat upto the virtual stretch of variance of any bet, Weird. Do not waste your time in looking for something that do not exist. If I ask someone how to win in a case of 25Losses of an EC followed by a win, there can be no sane answer. No key will fit in all locks.
Work on how to play to filter horrible patches or avoid losing our pants there.

#### dobbelsteen

##### Re: Help:How to win if dozen hit=30%
« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2015, 09:35:47 AM »
Maths, analysis, systems, betting schemes, strategies and some more are the mix for a succesful player.

#### random

##### Re: Help:How to win if dozen hit=30%
« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2015, 11:40:53 PM »
one should play by the law of series instead.
to answer the question of the post, one simple strategy i like is to ride a string of 13 unique numbers and bet the remaining 24.

#### albalaha

##### Re: Help:How to win if dozen hit=30%
« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2015, 06:15:25 AM »
Every bet gets close to break even in long run but what a gambler lacks is a strategy to sustain and earn in long run.
All MMs are there to win in a few spins where there are lots of volatility and chaos.