Author Topic: Why our systems fail?!  (Read 22479 times)

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weird

Why our systems fail?!
« on: July 29, 2015, 06:13:12 AM »
Why Our Systems Fail?!

Respected Gentlemen,
Out of tens of thousand system devised,
everyone agreed that they will lose, sooner or later.

Lets debate.
U see, we lose because,
our chosen strategy, system,etc,

1]cant sustain the long streaks of losses,

2]  too little wins in the smack of losing streaks!

But seems that people avoid discussing this topic...

I always ponder this question, and read many quotes,
about why we lose in gambling , though we thought we have a sturdy system.

Below a few quotes from respected members, of various forums.

=========================
below are some quotes I think related to why we lose at the casino...
and see whether could focus toward an agreeable solution, to win ...

=========================
Let me save you a lot of time.  No matter how low you get the ratio between wins and losses to reach a new profit, it's not enough.  You can get pretty deep in the hole between some hits on a [bet] and even further when you need more than a few hits close together to pull out.
quote by GLC.
==========================

"In short, instead of counting your profit, try to identify and understand what is the worst spin sequence that can ruin your system. This is much more useful information."
quote by KAV
=============================
we need to focus on essential betting events as opposed to just spins in order to demonstrate the integrity of a system.
quote by (Reyth only quoting) Palestis
======================
The number of spins doesn't really matter if they are not related to the "betting opportunities" of the system. It is the number of times that would call for betting that counts. In other words it is the number of triggers that has to be  taken into consideration, rather than pure spins.
quote by Palestis
=====================================

"The only flaw in all progressions devised so far, is one: They are meant for one type of variance only and they ignore the impact of house edge and variance in the long run."
"Wins and losses may cluster in any manner. In a random game, it is beyond your control so be prepared to face them".
"...that is the one and only trouble in a game of chance. Wins and losses may cluster in any manner. In a random game, it is beyond your control so be prepared to face them."
quote by Albalaha.
============================
The FLAW of every well-known bet-selection, and progression,
is they cant withstand the ASSAULT of losing streaks,
or too little win, in between the streak.

"..we cant predict what will happen,
and cant control what will happen,

Thus we need to expect firsthand,
what will happen, and prepare to handle them,
when they happen.

But HOW to handle them , is the million dollar question".
quote by P.A

===========================
"The whole point is to find a way to control your losses. If you do that the wins will take control of themselves".
"Probability, HE, and variance don't 'strike'. They aren't sitting around the corner waiting to pounce on you, how silly. You don't understand the game at all. Probability IS the game of roulette. The house edge applies to every single bet you make. Variance is the natural up and down and in and out of any betting system. These things are not your enemy, they are just the game playing out like it's supposed to. Your job is to find a bet selection that smoothly plays the ins and outs and lets you win more than you lose. Looking at past results is one way to do this. Figure out what they're telling you".
quote by Ekaps
=====================

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« Last Edit: July 29, 2015, 07:34:37 AM by Reyth »

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petespin

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2015, 04:12:53 PM »
if we re not  srat thinking in a  total differnt manner we  will wonder many times in the future.

dobbelsteen

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2015, 04:17:59 PM »
All long run systems fails due to the HE. Every system has a a chance on a positive or negative result of about 50%. This is true only for short run sessions. A strategy makes it possible to finish more positive sessions.

I have explained many times the difference between a strategy and a system.  Most peaple on this forum and others do not understand this difference.

Reyth

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #3 on: July 29, 2015, 04:52:16 PM »
Yes Dobble me included!  NOW, after having read many of your posts, I understand what you mean!

weird

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2015, 03:48:32 AM »
All long run systems fails due to the HE.

Gentlemen,
With respect, and apology,

I think if u take delete the ZERO out of any old real spin data,
and give someone to bet, [with the same payout], I think they still cant win..

The following users thanked this post: scepticus

dobbelsteen

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2015, 08:23:23 AM »
Without a strategy the chance for a positive or negative result is 50% for a no zero or 36 true roulette.
The casinos on the cruiseships increase the HE by changing the payout. A won number odd pays out 31 units instead of 36.
The smallest session is an odd on an EC. The chance is 50% and the result 100%!
For other chances  you need a true sample.

albalaha

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2015, 06:16:21 AM »
It is not the house edge that can not be surpassed. Progressive betting is meant for that only. It is indeed variance that empties both flat bettors as well as progressive bettors and virtual limits that you can get of variance momentarily is unbeatable with any progressive betting.
Even if the payouts are made to be perfect by removing the zero or paying 1:36 one can not guarantee win still so forget the rhetoric song of house edge is all to blame. Those who know least about the game and maths behind it learn this song that house edge is killing us otherwise we would have become billionaires.

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scepticus

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2015, 02:18:16 PM »
You and I are singing from the same song sheet here Albalaha. Variance IS the real enemy. I don't understand those who think it is the HE and yet  continue to bet . If you think the HE can't be beat why try ? You need to have confidence in your gambling not negativity.

albalaha

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2015, 05:40:34 PM »
House edge gives an advantage to casino but that is not sufficient in itself to beat every player. Say, a number always comes in 37 spins or 40 spins, will anybody lose?

Trilobite

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2015, 09:49:46 PM »
HE is universal, variance is personal.

Reducing the volatility of your own game's variance is the best chance you have of beating roulette.

The following users thanked this post: Reyth, MickyP

palestis

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2015, 02:06:43 AM »
I am really amazed how much emphasis is placed on the HE and variance. Those who are so worried about these 2 issues, I believe are those who bet too often, if not continuously. When a player bets continuously then he has to worry about the HE and the variance. Especially if he doesn't stop when he is winning.
Playing roulette should be no different than playing Texas Holdem.
You fold most of the time (avoid betting or betting virtually), and you only emerge to strike when the opportunity is by far in your favor. Then you retreat. You can't beat this strategy. There is nothing the HE can do to hurt you and neither the variance. Because you don't have to bet long enough to become a victim of either or both. Casinos love non -stop betting players. And from what I see most of them are. Hit and run is the way to go as long as you know when to hit.
Personally the HE and variance are the least of my worries.
My biggest problem is inability to bet inside (DS's or streets or QUADS) with cash chips, when someone else  is using cash chips already. I can't help to stand by in vain watching a surefire opportunity going down the drain.

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Trilobite

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2015, 03:20:12 AM »
You can go to sleep waiting for your surefire opportunity to present itself, but the HE and variance never sleeps and will be there waiting for you when you wake up.

Spreading out the game as you suggest is like hanging out a wet rag. It will hang there dripping and dripping until variance comes along and gives it a good wringing out.

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petespin

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2015, 04:10:02 AM »
everybody here agree that variance maybe it s the nmmber 1 reason that stop players to win in aregular basis ,even if that enemy is much stronger than u re ,and beating u for sure , so knowing u have no chance except perhaps to be come friends! variance will always be there , this cant change , but think, there are times that u ve won becoz of variance ! speaking personally that what iam afraid more is cheating from casino s side not the he or variance, randomness.

albalaha

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2015, 04:27:48 AM »
In roulette, house edge comes from faulty payout. That is set and stone and no way of playing can change the HE. I am just saying that the such house edge or faulty payout is not such a big burden that can ensure losses for every player. Variance and limited bankroll coupled with "gambler's ruin" kill players.

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weird

Re: Why our systems fail?!
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2015, 04:34:05 AM »

you only emerge to strike when the opportunity is by far in your favor. Then you retreat. You can't beat this strategy. There is nothing the HE can do to hurt you and neither the variance. Because you don't have to bet long enough to become a victim of either or both.

Hit and run is the way to go as long as you know when to hit.

Dear Palestis,
With Respect.
That a quote worth million dollar!

I truly understand what U mean .
U avoid the variance and avoid become it's victim.

Btw,
If U willing,
May U please show how u doing some HIT an Run,
that always hit win within the math expectation.