blockdamofo

### Author Topic: Test using past spins!  (Read 7938 times)

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#### Jesper

##### Test using past spins!
« on: June 14, 2015, 08:12:02 AM »
I am of the option past spins do not influence the next. I am of the option an unbalance can grow, but near impossible forever, this is however not anything I can use.

Even if all say 4 or 5 EC:s all combinations are the same chance, they are equally "rare" in mathematical sense. They may be of different importance according to how we play.

RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
is mathematical as rare as any other of the same length.
but it is different in consequence depending on how we play.

Many wait for a trigger, which other says are of no use.
Who  is right?
The user of a trigger winning, or a no believer losing?
In the above example the otcome make
Martingale: bust! (if we can not bet more)
other methods  makes wins.

Is a win  using Gamblers Fallacy not valid?
Is GF allways something wrong?

What is a win? What is a loss?
a session?,  alltime?
So long we care?

The most common and "newbie" is wait for a run of a color, and start a martingale
of the opposite.

I will run a few such a game.
Found a casino allowed unlimited empty spins, and 1 cent stakes.

First done!
Bet black after four red.
100.01

« Last Edit: June 14, 2015, 09:56:03 AM by Jesper »

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #1 on: June 14, 2015, 08:15:57 AM »
Got fast a run of 5, start bet on 4.
win in second step.
100.02.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #2 on: June 14, 2015, 08:20:26 AM »
First hit won, bet after 4 blacks.
100.03

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #3 on: June 14, 2015, 08:23:44 AM »
Bet after 4 HIGH, win first spin.
100.04.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #4 on: June 14, 2015, 08:29:23 AM »
Bet after 4 EVEN, win on third spin.
100.05.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #5 on: June 14, 2015, 08:34:51 AM »
Here is 8 spins without an ODD, four EVEN in a row, bet ODD.

Win first spin.
100.06

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2015, 08:59:25 AM »
Long red run, bet to 16 chips. 100.07
10 reds, would be 512 at stake if start on red.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #7 on: June 14, 2015, 09:09:58 AM »
Hit first spin. 100.08.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #8 on: June 14, 2015, 09:15:46 AM »
Hit first spin! Bet EVEN. 100.9.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #9 on: June 14, 2015, 09:19:41 AM »
Bet after 5 spins (did not see intermix the last session) hit on second spin. 100.10.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #10 on: June 14, 2015, 09:22:18 AM »
Hit on RED first spin. 100.11.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #11 on: June 14, 2015, 09:38:53 AM »
Hit on first spin, 100. EVEN. 100.12.

This 12 sessions, I would have won, if I wait or not.
However, in some cases the bet had been higher.
I could not lose more than  14 times in a row, which
means it should be 18 losing bets.

The chance is small, and the probability is the same after 4 fallen.
The fact the player do not see 18 losing in a row as often as 14 times, may made
him use the "trigger".

I can not see it is wrong, as long the player know the probability.
He use a method which says : I will not lose IF 18 losing spin not happen tonight.

Nobody can proof it will hurt, in other way, a bit more could be won. A lot
more could be lost as well.

We can say, if the player knows, the probability, and chose to make
the IF to 18 losses in a row, It is enough educated to be used.

#### dobbelsteen

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #12 on: June 14, 2015, 10:11:06 AM »

#### Jesper

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #13 on: June 14, 2015, 11:55:21 AM »

It was not the point of this play to test SSB, nor even to win.
It was rather a way to explain past spins can be in the calculation.
I used the most simple example.

#### scepticus

##### Re: Test using past spins!
« Reply #14 on: June 14, 2015, 12:07:59 PM »
I think we need to consider the "Risk to Reward " factor so I am not a fan of long progressions . As a matter of interest , Dobbelsteen, how many units are needed for the table bank of your SSB  programme ?
« Last Edit: June 14, 2015, 12:45:09 PM by Jesper »