Author Topic: Can Someone Explain This Ecart Formula  (Read 210 times)

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Third

Can Someone Explain This Ecart Formula
« on: August 07, 2019, 05:03:44 AM »
Hidey ho neighbor!

Well I just spent the last 7 days playing even chances and was feeling so exhausted, I couldn't play anymore.  Perfect time to compile all the data!

Won units: 618
Placed bets: 3146
Total bet: 15999
Average bet (total bet/placed bets): 5.0855
E=2.167

Can you tell I have been through some wars?

Now, did I just waste about an hour or so doing this or will this formula help me at some point, the longer I play?

I mean like if my method "sucks", will it matter how long I play or does this thing improve over time, the longer I am successful?

Should I continue to track this data (now its easy)?

What exactly does this thing measure anyway??

Interesting side note, I found ONE game where I bet over 3000 units!!!
« Last Edit: August 07, 2019, 05:13:03 AM by Third »
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: Can Someone Explain This Ecart Formula
« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2019, 05:34:43 AM »
Third 3000 units ??? :o :o :o :o

Well ya just under the " 3 " ballpark figure so.... Getting there   ;)  Can you recall or re-track how many actual bets won eg. The " W " vs the " L " ratio ?
 

Third

Re: Can Someone Explain This Ecart Formula
« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2019, 05:46:13 AM »
If you know how to program excel to sum a character like "L" or "W" in a column, I can create that.  Suffice it to say that with over 3000 bets placed and only 600 units of profit, it won't be pretty. :D

I don't play for more wins than losses, I play for profit.

So its like, my method won even against 2.167 SD?
« Last Edit: August 07, 2019, 05:57:05 AM by Third »
 

Stratege

Re: Can Someone Explain This Ecart Formula
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2019, 07:29:45 AM »
The problem with your question is that if you've used a progression, it's impossible to answer you specifically. If you bring things back to ½ probability calculation (like EC), you have 600/5 = 120 units (in flat bet on EC).

Personally, I have already met + 351 units (not counting zero) in flat bet on EC and finally, the method was losing! Few players would think that we can return 350 units won in flat bet (I also thought spontaneously before thinking back to the probabilities) but, as the dispersion on EC is almost 1 STD on average, sooner or later (here on average 120 000 spins, without the zero), we meet a movement of the game as ample. It is up to you to convert this STD value according to your type of bet (5 numbers on average or other type). Your certainty of winning will be in your % profit well above 1 STD (in time) because 1 STD + zeros.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2019, 07:34:02 AM by Stratege »
 

scepticus

Re: Can Someone Explain This Ecart Formula
« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2019, 11:26:41 AM »

"I don't play for more wins than losses, I play for profit. "  Third
You don't need " more wins than losses " if you bet with odds in your favour and Flat Bet . No need for Progressions with a good Bet Selection.
 

UnlikelySam

Re: Can Someone Explain This Ecart Formula
« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2019, 11:51:41 AM »
Geeeeez yep that would be quite a handful to tidy up :-\  The reason I asked about that ratio as at times I used to use them to evaluate my method to decipher how or if I could tweak it further anyhoooo its all good in the hood... :)

I'm all for statistical conceptualisation however for me personally I use those tools as a general guideline as it's not really cast in stone so to speak. If I'm in profit that's all that really matters and hope for the good fortune to continue . I do know your quest for answers though :-\

I'm having success with the LW strategic play with a positive progression... Sometimes I do not use virtual losses ; upon a loss I wait for the first virtual win and then go for it as the negative trend could be seen on its way out ;)

Regards

Sam...
 

scepticus

Re: Can Someone Explain This Ecart Formula
« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2019, 07:15:25 PM »
 " If I'm in profit that's all that really matters "  Unlikely Sam

100% CORRECT !