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Author Topic: Question about variance, lifetime session  (Read 1878 times)

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GIAJJENNO

Question about variance, lifetime session
« on: August 02, 2019, 01:36:26 AM »
If we would play all spins of roulette for example 50 years , it would be losing for everyone due to the variance ?
If yes, why some players wait for virtual losses, virtual wins, table changing, wait X to happen Y, wait some spins to get trigger,  etc things. Even I am doing this, but why? Is it make sense?
If we put together these spins, your lifetime game, the variance appears there too. Yes, we do some circumstances, stoploss, wingoals, and we do sessions, it changes the gameplay, and the picture of the game at all, I know, that is not the same like playing all day all long without stop the every trigger. But when you imagine this, that you played all sessions together, which you played until now, and you will play in your life, and you are still profitable, how you do this? When it should be a losing game in long run for everybody, who play all spins, due to the variance, and house edge.

Where did the variance go?

(mybe stupid question)
 

Third

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2019, 03:00:05 AM »
I have asked myself this question many times!  I am still asking myself this question!!

I think that the best way I can put it is something like this:

"Would I prefer to cross a 10 lane freeway in the middle of rush hour, or in the late morning  when there is less traffic?"

I recently had a very long game, over 500 spins in the same session and I was winning alot but my winning started to creep up and eventually surpassed 5 SD.  All of a sudden I found myself looking at the last string of win sequences and thinking to myself, "You know, there is going to be a big correction for that last series of wins, it is too large" but I decided to keep going because I was happy go lucky and enjoying the session and I was immediately hit with this:

L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
W
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
L

To make things worse, I was 2 SD in the plus as I was trying to recover from this, which let me say, is massively exasperating!  I chose to not recover to the all-time high and took some winnings at a convenient time.

So my point is, should I deliberately walk in the path of a bus when I know that it is the exact time that it is due (because what's the difference, traffic is traffic anyway), or would it be better to cross the road at a different point down the sidewalk (when at least I didn't know the bus was due there)?

I personally don't like getting hit by massive correction swings, IF I CAN AVOID IT and it is definitely better to get hit in a fresh session (B & M = fresh wheel) when I don't have a metric crap ton of positive variance accrued because regardless of personal permanence, each session is unique, the numbers follow different paths and the statistics are different.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2019, 03:11:25 AM by Third »
 
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MickyP

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2019, 05:54:49 AM »
Great question Gia, and a well delivered answer Third.

A university professor handed out a test paper and gave the students one hour to complete the test, There was only one question on the test paper that read, "This is the question, answer it." Most of the student took the full hour for the test but one student completed it in a few minutes; he simply wrote the following on his answer sheet. "This is the answer, mark it." He got full marks.

The above story reminds me of a roulette story that goes about searching for the HG. We all know that it is a mathematical impossibility but in the attempts we make in trying to discover this unicorn we get to a point where relative to our system/method we define variance as positive and negative but in reality it is simply a string of roulette numbers, neither negative nor positive. What is negative variance for one system will be positive variance for another system. interruptions in play as you pointed out Gia, are designed to help the player avoid playing a string of numbers considered negative to his system (red flag strings).

Playing continuously can be likened to a tree that grows and survives the different seasons of the year. How long the tree is able to live depends on what type of tree it is and where that tree grows (geographically). Long harsh winters (negative variance) see survival but no growth. Warm summers with adequate rain (positive variance) see life with growth. The system/method is the tree and the seasons represent variance. The geographical position of the tree indicates the strengths and weaknesses of the tree. It defines the life of the tree.

I'm getting carried away...lol

In short, there is no perfection in life and the same applies to roulette. What you do about your circumstances or situation determines the quality and length of your life's journey.
 
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kav

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Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2019, 08:00:51 AM »
This is a GREAT QUESTION with very deep complications.  It touches on the true meaning of randomness.
I hope to find the time to reply properly....
 
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dobbelsteen

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2019, 08:32:49 AM »
A infinite random sequence without a begin and finish has na variances. A random sequence small or large with a begin and end has.
 
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MickyP

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2019, 09:10:49 AM »
This is a GREAT QUESTION with very deep complications.  It touches on the true meaning of randomness.
I hope to find the time to reply properly....

I look forward to your post Kav.

 
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Joe

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2019, 11:21:19 AM »
I must admit I don't understand the question. What ultimately causes the player to lose (if he doesn't have an edge), is the house edge, not the variance. The more spins you play the less effect variance has. Players without an edge rely on progressions and short term positive variance to win, but over time the house edge becomes the main factor in losing.
 

MickyP

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2019, 01:34:03 PM »
If you have enough bankroll to carry you through the losses then at a point you will be down by the house edge margin but the majority of players lose due to variance.

What is variance? you need to understand this in relation to your system/method as variance is linked to bet selection, positive and you win, negative and you lose. Variance is subjective.

Even if there was no house edge players would still lose because many play static systems and they do not test enough and stay within the parameters of their play. Loss equals weakness of character. The house edge is like the warning on cigarette packets. It will claim its value in the very long run. Any player who plays the long run is simply stupid.
 

Jesper

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2019, 01:38:32 PM »
On a single session that is the variance. In years, it is the unfair odds. Why do you thing NÖZ is not better? ITIS NOT POSSIBLE TO WIN IN THE LONG RUN!  If you win the long run has not yet been there.  Here is a lot playing in software for test, and never risk money at all. They post the better from cheap software testing. Often a few trials negative prog  1,40, 123, 1300  and to crash.

The distribution is important, but still the unfair pay, will kill, it can take along time or come fast. The game permit some to win, the casinos never lose.
 

Third

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2019, 02:31:29 PM »
I must admit I don't understand the question. What ultimately causes the player to lose (if he doesn't have an edge), is the house edge, not the variance. The more spins you play the less effect variance has. Players without an edge rely on progressions and short term positive variance to win, but over time the house edge becomes the main factor in losing.

This is an old and already re-hashed argument.  There is nothing to say that our profits cannot grow right along with the growing HE and in fact they must, which is why there are winning systems and profitable roulette players.

Variance will always be the greatest enemy and the greatest friend of the properly skilled player and the HE will never be won back.

We should be thankful for the HE because it guarantees that the casino will be profitable, which allows them to allow us to win.

« Last Edit: August 02, 2019, 02:40:45 PM by Third »
 
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MickyP

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2019, 04:07:57 PM »
Growing house edge????

The value is fixed at 2.7%. You have to calculate your wins over your investment so it can not be a simple case of a growing house edge.

I may not understand so please do explain the growing house edge issue.

Thanks
 

Jesper

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2019, 05:12:04 PM »
Mike!

It grows, the turnover a lot of times take it! A good variance for long can make a winner or loss, for  so long as 100000 spins. Which few do on a BM casino.  I have not count my lifetime spins, but know some 24 hours I did 5000. That's is not common in BM, and overlay as traveling is not included. In USA they have 2 zeros, and tax of win, they are not honest claim they live of the game. I do some wins , but that is not my living. If I even though about live on gambling, I would hesitate, as I am some want to do something for living  the society have some benefit from. My last small win I gave away, to the girl local scouts here (120 Euro)
 
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Third

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2019, 07:13:32 PM »
The HE is a flat tax on all amounts wagered and it is collected statistically due to the unfair payout.  If we tally the total amounts that we wager and multiply it by the house edge, we will find the amount grows the longer we play.

As you can clearly see, its a lopsided argument because of course our main job is to insure that our profits grow along with it, through our winning method.
 

thomasleor

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2019, 08:06:14 PM »
Sorry to say it straight (with no ice) but Joe Shmoe here is wrong (as usual).

Variance is what matters most in your battle against the Casino. As the wheels in front of you, or that cool image looking like a roulette but being a slimy RNG engine spits ut a larger set of numbers, the variance increases in a way very few take notice of and much less are capable to calculate.

For those who do not know the mathematical definition of variance really is, it is quite a simple one.

Variance measures how far a specific dataset is spread out. The definition of it being " The average of the squared differences from the mean". 

A variance value of zero means that there is no variability in the numbers before you, because all the number in your data set are the same. Congrats! If you have a bunch of zeros before you the variance is zero...DUH ::) 

But if they differ, lets say, like in this limited data set below (I skip one elegant mathematical equation and take it step by step due to the funny KAV format on this forum);

10,1,28,36,3,19,22

We get the following;

  10+1+28+36+3+19+22=119

  119*119=14,161

  14,161/7=2023

Now we square all the numbers in the datset

10*10, 1*1,28*28,36*36,3*3,22*22  which gives us 100+1+74+1296+9+474=1,954   (are we there yet? ...NO!)

Now we take the total squared sum and subtract the number in step 3;

2023-1954=69  (are we there yet? ...HECK NO!)

Now we subtract 1 from  the total numbers in our nifty roulette data set   >  7-1=6

we divide  69/6=11.5 ~ 12 is our variance for the given data set :D

  • And taking the square root out of 12 we get a standard deviation of  3,4641

    What the ordinary joe shmoe (sarc) isnt aware of,  is that the more numbers the roulette wheel produces for your game,  the greater the variance increases (into infinite) and hence the greater the mathematical volatility (risk) becomes, that makes it impossible to predict a certain set of numbers according to the Strong and Weak law of large numbers. 

    This is where all who fail to know something about basic game theory,  bites the dust ...and sooner or later,  like all bragging crows, sings a mighty song until they get fried by the grim reality of heisenbergs uncertainty principle, which I love so much because I see it at work in all things every single day.

« Last Edit: August 02, 2019, 08:38:18 PM by thomasleor »
 

scepticus

Re: Question about variance, lifetime session
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2019, 08:20:27 PM »
I think variance in roulette  means  only  that the numbers vary - they have no set pattern .

The House Edge is the unfair payout so is always there .  It doesn’t increase - it is  set at  2.7% . The AMOUNT lost
to the House Edge varies with the amount bet .
 
The Bettor tries to overcome the HE by using a system allied to a strategy.