### Author Topic: Using long shots and stay low in bets.  (Read 4209 times)

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#### Jesper

##### Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« on: July 22, 2019, 10:04:24 AM »

Sometimes a longer shots can be profitable.
It is common to parlay on an EC, but not so on inside bets.

A DS have one out of 36 chances to re peate.
That is the same as a single.

We DO NOT have to stay and wait for a double hit, it is
a question to win twice in a row. So players who using
different methods to spot hot numbers can shift the bet
as they like.

A second win using parlay for a double street if it comes
in 36 spins, is not a loss.

A   parlay win on a street if it comes in
144 spins is not a loss.

A parlay win on a split if it comes in  324 spins
is not a loss.

A win on a parlay on a single is not a loss if
it comes in 1296.

As we lose  one ground bet a spin, until we win (or bust),
we can start with a double street, and if we do not win in 36
spins, we have lost 36 units.

Now we can bet two units, and it last to we are 72 back,
or we can move to a street bet, using one unit still, that
will last until we are 144 units back, i.e. 144 spins.

The split will if we shift will take us to 324 spins before
we have to increase the bet or risk, and then we can go for single,
which holds until we are back 1296 spins.

There are unlimited combinations, we can go from DS to single, or
we can rise the bets and stay on the DS.

If we stay with one unit, we can always play the square of the pay out
until we will not profit. A shift from a DS to a corner or higher,
will not change the count, as we always pay a bet until we hit.

Today's play was just on DS expect from one which I moved to street
and increase to three units at the end of the game.

941 in 782 spins
16  in  26 spins
27  in  12 spins
24  in  13 spins
28  in  43 spins
17  in  23 spins
29  in   8 spins
31  in   7 spins
29  in   9 spins
20 in   21 spins
80 in   117 spins

I did some mistakes in the betting, minor impact on the result.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2019, 11:02:21 AM »

50 in 36 spins on a corner.
53 in 31 spins on a corner.
116 in 83 spins on a corner (after 81 spins the bet were 2 units and then pay out 162 not 81.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2019, 11:13:01 AM »
If we want we can test our luck, by backing a single say for 50 spins, and as we always lose a bet a spin until we win, we can reduce the risk and try to win less but faster, by for example start backing a street, it will be one units up to 144 spins anyhow.

116 in 83 spins on a corner (after 81 spins the bet were 2 units and then pay out 162 not 81.

4 in 8 spins on a dozen (a dozen can take 9 trials with the same bet size).

#### Third

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2019, 12:11:41 PM »
Interesting, spinning for the parlay win instead of just a single win.

So if a parlay win is no longer possible, you chip up 1?  Do you ever start chipping up by more than 1?

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2019, 01:46:23 PM »
You can always take a calculated loss.  You can always chose to increase the risk, by shift to an higher level, as from a street to a split, or increase the bet. When a parlay will come, you should get a win.  If we are lucky early the win is great. See when I lost to 81 units, chip up instead of move to higher stations, I got a hit which gave a good winning.   The probability of winning is always the same, If we are too carefully and lock in small win, how can that be big, in a good streak?   If we do not have an mathematical edge, we must do some bold.  Small winning must be so often it can take a bad run.

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#### Third

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2019, 02:04:12 PM »
Quote from: King Jesper, Roulette Grinder
A win on a parlay on a single is not a loss if
it comes in 1296.

Wow this is insane.  Wouldn't this require two wins at 18 or 19 units each?

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2019, 02:21:23 PM »
You get it if it early  much very early, but if you win at the last stage, just recover the loss.

Try the cubic, three in a row single and if you dare or have that luck, you can think of stop play for a wail, as you got a winning, better and good odds comparing to any lottery.  over 30000 X to only 2.7 against. many lottery has 50% against.
A long shot in roulette has much better chance  than any lottery.

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#### Third

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2019, 02:38:49 PM »
LOL. I just did the math:

1296/70 = 18.51, which is the same amount required to parlay a win that would fully recover!

We would chip up 18 times and win big at the end.

« Last Edit: July 22, 2019, 02:41:37 PM by Third »

#### UnlikelySam

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2019, 02:47:25 PM »
" A DS have one out of 36 chances to re peate "

Jesper I like the chance of repeaters
What I'm actually trying to capitalize on is in how many spins will we have for example a DS that repeats. In how many spins will it become a 3peat or 4peat . Likewise for single streets. Trying to create a bet selection around those stats ; and can be used for SU or splits once the target is narrowed down   Now errrrrr does anybody have proper stats with regards to that ? I have some stats but have yet for it to be confirmed   Thanks.

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#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #9 on: July 22, 2019, 04:21:43 PM »
A long shot, is long, but scary people takes the small win, which can often not recover. If the wheel is at true, we can not win other tan a bold chance. It can be bet hard! or take it somewhat slow, and if a good streak get more. i HAVE GOT SOME HEAVY LOSS, but in all I am on a good plus.  Do not be scary, if use scary money, may be better not try. Never use more than you can stand.  I have won some, but it is not because I think my method will win, it wins then it suits the numbers shown, all it is about luck.

#### Nisayon

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #10 on: July 22, 2019, 06:05:35 PM »
What about making the parlay longer? As an example, we win on a DS, instead of betting six units in just one shot, we could bet 2 units for three times...

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #11 on: July 22, 2019, 06:19:53 PM »
We can bet less, but if we win betting all, we are on plus straight, if we try to do less we must have a better variance helping.   Negative expection, make a bold play with small stakes better.

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#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2019, 07:06:06 AM »

70 in 12 spins on a corner.
37 in 50 spins on a corner.
304 in 21 spins on a split

The split hit early, my intention was to try 50 spins, and then change to a street for the rest up to 144 spins.

#### Jesper

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2019, 07:37:05 AM »
I did an other way last session. Started with a single for 20 spins. Got one hit, but lost the parlay, then back 20 units. Went to a split for 20 spins, got two hits but lost the parlays. Then I tried a DS as recover up to 81 spins, got some hit but no parlay hit.  Turned to street, and at first hit, I saw, half could recover, so I just to recover spent 6 on the spin, which were a loss, but the second was a hit, and I was on a new high, with a few. (I saw afterwards i got a small loss of 9 units).

It may be sometimes of use, to split the bet if recover is wanted before a higher win. The point with the session was to be lucky on a single or split at the start and may be get 1200. And then take lower odds for a attempt to recover.

We pay 1 chip a spin until a parlay hit, then we are on new high.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2019, 07:47:53 AM by Jesper »

#### Third

##### Re: Using long shots and stay low in bets.
« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2019, 07:54:44 AM »
Aha!

So a DS:

1x35 hit = -30
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 etc.?