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Author Topic: MLB discovery  (Read 1428 times)

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GIAJJENNO

MLB discovery
« on: June 25, 2019, 10:40:29 PM »
Dear Sports Betting Colleagues!

I found something that I never thought of in my 6-7-year-old "sports betting career", and because of my existing experience, I didn't even think it could exist.
I don't know where to start ...
It was about a week ago when I started searching for MLB (American baseball) statistics, hoping to find something that could greatly improve my earnings.
Looking for little things, I really came across a surprising thing that has been shocking since it could exist ...
I didn't really like to go into the details, because on the one hand, it is a very complex (complicated) thing, and on the other hand I might consider myself a trick-self pepper, but the point is that afterwards, it generates a HUGE PROFIT!
I'm telling you that I don't care about who is on the table in these match choices, but I don't even look at the form of the teams, nor do I take the value of the teams into account, but still has a 84.73% winrate score, and it's not uncommon to going for 2,4 - 2.6 odds.
Often occurs, that we beat with the last one the teams in the first 3 (on the table)!
I attached pictures that I checked in the last 247 MLB games so that if I had done these principles, how would it been succeed. And I must say I would have won a f*ing lot! Almost 85% WIN and only 15% LOSE!
I am so excited, and curious.
The next month is my plan to compete on this basis, and I will see if its performs like this, would be extremely great!

 
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leowls

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2019, 10:49:21 PM »
Does this apply to soccer?
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2019, 11:11:47 PM »
Only American Baseball.
 

MrPerfect.

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2019, 11:14:41 PM »
I hope it holds for you. If it does, just play, if not bookies will adjust the odds.
 
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GIAJJENNO

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2019, 11:28:07 PM »
How they can adjust Home or Away win?
 

MrPerfect.

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2019, 11:55:20 PM »
If you post something valuable,  chances are that many will start to use it. Bokies offer only initial odds, later when folks bet , it is adjusted.  If many bet same, there is no good odds for anyone.
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2019, 12:09:22 AM »
It is true MrPerfect what you say, but see an example:
H: 1.8
A: 1.9

If I bet on home win for odds 1.8, apart from me they are betting millions people for 1 and 2 too, the odds for 1 will dicreaise when example betting are 2 million to 1 and 1,5 million for 2. With my bet I think I will not mobilize thousands of people, but I think would be low too to change odds for 1 to 1.6 example, but if win, its good for me too.
The odds always stay in a linear way, example 1.7-2.2, 1.6-2.3, 1.5-2.4.
 

MrPerfect.

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2019, 12:23:44 AM »
 I wish it works for you because l have no understanding in sports betting. But l like when people win. All l can do is to wish.  Sports betting is not my strong ;).
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2019, 08:32:14 AM »
Hey Giaj

Thanks for sharing your awesome
find ( Edge) ; good on you mate ;)
It's great to see someone "taking" the bookies to task for a change especially when it concerns sporting bets due to their high volatility and unpredictability  ; well done bro. Everything of the best on your progress going forward... 8)

Regards

Sam...
 
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GIAJJENNO

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #9 on: June 27, 2019, 05:50:56 AM »
I will go for a throughly testing in July and the rest of days in June with this idea with virtual betting. Its like a kind of betting in roulette: we dont bet, just focus virtually, and see how would haveit been perform. Of course important, I call it strictly test period.

Meanwhile I will do backtesting too. Firstly, I will open an excel, and I will ad month by month the matches, what are compliance to my circumstances. Usually MLB seasons starts at March/April, and ens at October/November. The MLB season consists 162 games for each if the 30 teams in the AL, NL, playing over 6 months, a total of 2 430 games + postseason. If I end with present year, I go back to 2018, 2017, and maybe 2016, then I will have a global bigger alignment what I am doing, and if its profitable in long therm, or not, and I hope it will answer to my question, if I have an advantage in these type of bettings, or not.

If somebody interested to my testings, after I finished, I will share my results.

Yesterday I had 3 picks [would have been 4, but for the NY Yankees bookies add only odds 1,40, so not so good value, and I choosed to not bet on this game, and I will not bet under odds 1,50], and all 3 won.

Giaj
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2019, 02:53:26 PM »
Hey Giaj

I too do virtual bets especially when trying out new football betting markets ; it's the best way to test it out ;)

Yesterday I tried with a selection of 7 MLB matches ; virtual bets. 7 /7 ;D  I must admit I have never betted on MLB before ??? It would be interesting to see how things play out ; so it would be great to see your results ( from all the testing). I have attached the schedule for the fixtures for Saturday (29/06). What's your take on those matches ? I did a selection that I would like to compare. Once again this is a great find mate even better than football dare I say :)
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 02:58:14 PM by UnlikelySam »
 
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GIAJJENNO

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #11 on: June 28, 2019, 04:48:02 PM »
What I found that baseball is very unpredictable, even if I trying to thinning my loses, so I trying to do some red flags, adjusting the match selection to become more profitable. In excel after 270 matches I am up 278.5 euro, but with 10 euro flat bet. It is +27 units up, I know it is not much, but think when you bet with a biggest stake, say 50 euro/tip, or 100. I started to test this season so from March 2019, I  am at Jun 1 now. I am around +300 euro for the last 50-70 tips, so a little bit stagne, but it is the first testing, I said, that I will make changes to choosing games.

Today I picked Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves and I will wait for the starting lines, and odds for another macthes, but it seems that I will bet St. Lois Cardinals too.
 
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UnlikelySam

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #12 on: June 28, 2019, 05:32:11 PM »
Profit is profit bro... Those are some good selections but I'm not really sure about St Louis as it's a close one. LA Dodgers seems to be solid but there are a number of injured players who will be missing ( not sure if that will make the world of difference). Other picks are Cleveland ; Washington ; Phillies ; Minnesota ; Houston  ; Milwaukee... Bear with me as I am curious as well as to how all this will transpire... Unfortunately unpredictability is part and parcel of all sporting events ; love it or hate it - I choose the latter lol...
 

GIAJJENNO

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2019, 07:48:22 PM »
Yes, the St Liuis match is more risky, but LA Dodgers only have odds 1.50, not a good value for me.
 

Sputnik

Re: MLB discovery
« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2019, 08:23:45 PM »

About value, I considering trading more reliable.
I can see similarities with visual ballistics.

For example when trading you make a pre-game analyze of the teams and if that one pass the criteria you move on to watch the game live.
Then if the pre-game analyzes hold true during the live game you can place the bet.

Is more complex than my description, but you get the point.
You match the pre-game analyze with the live game and watch what actually happens to determine a bet or not.
Is a profession.

I just buy a large complete trading course for football.
This will be an interesting summer to spend time with this.

Cheers Patrik
 
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