Author Topic: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette  (Read 1721 times)

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Third

Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« on: May 04, 2019, 10:20:20 PM »
Surrounded by enemies on all sides, screaming we cannot win, we prove them wrong by simply doing the following:

"Survive long enough for positive variance to give us profit."

 

GIAJJENNO

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #1 on: May 04, 2019, 10:50:52 PM »
And the naysayers first question will be the following:

HOW?
 

Third

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2019, 12:06:24 AM »
Well, first of all, let me be a bit more accurate:

"Survive long enough for us to take advantage of positive variance and gain profit."

The reason for the modification is that we can't just sit around idly waiting for variance to "correct itself" and profit just lands in our lap; this rarely happens!  The reason we simply can't afford to be passive about it is because of the HE that is weighted against us.

So, with that out of the way, back to your question of "how?":

"Proper timing in the raising and lowering of one's bets."

This is simply betting less when we are losing and betting more when we are winning.  We all need to examine our game and determine which "time" we are in and act accordingly. 

When we are in a "losing time" we should at least be betting less or minimum betting; i.e. aggressively betting less.  When we are in a "winning time", we should be aggressively betting more; its up to us to examine our bankroll, in total and during play to determine how much of an aggressive raise is required, while being conservative enough to survive long term, if it misses.  When winning but against a larger debt, we need to also have an eye to "locking in profits"; i.e. betting less in expectation of an impending "losing time"; we must do this because, again, the HE is weighted against us and will frustrate our attempts to reach par.

Notice how our strategy takes into account the HE and works around it?  If we do this properly, we WILL win!
« Last Edit: May 05, 2019, 12:12:33 AM by Third »
 
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Third

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2019, 03:02:54 AM »
When we play roulette, we need to be BAD ASS (if you pardon the expression), like a bounty hunter riding into White Rocks, it should be just like that:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-k_BW8iLkk

This bounty hunter is called Manco, which is an expression for "one hand".  Notice how one hand is always beneath the poncho?  Its always on his gun, ready for the worst at every moment.  That's how we should play roulette, pursuing our goals with our hand always on our bankroll.

As our fight ensues over our obtaining profit, we fight with only one hand, leaving our bankroll as a reserve.  We wait patiently as our enemies attack us, using their attack as an opportunity to strike, at the proper time; we kept our attack ready but didn't use it until the timing was perfect.  Timing is all about expectation and the BAD ASS bounty hunter corrects the imbalance on his way out of town, with money in hand!

 
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Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #4 on: May 05, 2019, 09:52:06 AM »
Thank you Third, this is a very nice topic : no numbers, only psychology, phylosophy, analyse. The way everything should start, yet annoying for many ppl, prefering skipping this part. Experience is also very important, meaning you learned and are able to keep only the good for the future. Personal experience even more, as when you live things by yourself, the psychological impact should be greater. That would also mean something else very important, you don't take what "somone you don't know says" as granted, but you want to verify by yourself, always.

I can only agree with everything you've said, which is completely in phase with the only type of system that could work in the long term : progression.

I have some experience with Forex trading, I had to help someone developing a bot for a strategy. The 2 main things I learned from there are money management and waiting for the best moment to take a position (too early or too late : you loose)
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #5 on: May 05, 2019, 02:01:44 PM »
Shaldorin,  how many points of entering the position you know? How many points to exit?
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #6 on: May 05, 2019, 02:09:10 PM »
Third , any ideas how to do it without a gun? 
 

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #7 on: May 05, 2019, 02:53:00 PM »
I'm not sure to understand what you mean by "point of entering", nor the "how many". Doesn't fit with trading. we speak there in pip anyway.
I was focus on very short term, even scalping. It's a very complex "game" with necessary levers but in the same time not helping. You need to anticipate possibilities, take a position on the right moment (probably the more difficult) and understand quick enough if you were wrong to close it soon enough. Also avoiding all the events, and monitoring all the time... and be able to psychology feel ok when you have a position for real. That is not for everybody at all, asks a lot of discipline, stress resistance.. I also forget about the different potential targets and stop loss to calculate, and in function of your bankroll and lever. It needs years of practice before going in real mode.. where most of ppl loose everything and very quickly.
I left completely that world.. just had some interests by helping someone, but it's not for my personality and I would not invite anyone to try it. But the technics with money management can always teach you things.
 
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Third

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #8 on: May 05, 2019, 03:29:45 PM »
I gun is symbolic of winning force (raising) to obtain problem resolution (profit).  If you prefer a butterfly net, that could work as as symbol too? :hugs:  ;)
 

UnlikelySam

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #9 on: May 05, 2019, 04:11:56 PM »
If all else fails ; C4 does a pretty good job as well on a safe :o ;D ;D ;D
« Last Edit: May 05, 2019, 04:17:06 PM by UnlikelySam »
 

MickyP

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #10 on: May 05, 2019, 04:48:41 PM »
"Survive long enough for positive variance to give us profit."

Now, that's a real feel good saying but what do players read in this saying
? How much planning goes into surviving long enough to shown a profit, (end the play with a total higher than your buy-in bankroll)?

From this thread I can't help feeling that roulette is treated as a game where real money is not at risk and the idea is not to win but to beat an anticipated loss. Give yourself a Noddy badge!

We all know that losses do occur but because we test extensively and settle for a method that produces more wins than losses does not mean we have arrived. We have to now take this "winning" method and find a few other "winning" methods that work differently in sequences of numbers. We must then qualify the best method for current play and limit exposure on the table to reach a realistic win goal per session. In this way you will be playing short bursts of different methods freshly qualified as the best option to use at that time. Almost like Palestis using virtual play to pass through bad variance without risk.

You see; the problem is that players but mostly gamblers see a extensively tested method or system as the means to profit when in fact it is the timely application of said method that generates the profit with limited risk. Not qualifying the time of play will result in unnecessary risk. Knowing when to pause play is also important but a big psychological hurdle to cross because players feel that every spin must be played.

What exactly does extensive testing reveal if not how best to apply the method or system?
« Last Edit: May 05, 2019, 04:53:51 PM by MickyP »
 

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #11 on: May 05, 2019, 06:35:14 PM »
Not sure I understand everything of what you say,
Personaly I feel the need to play every spin and stress test a method. I want to know exactly what is the success rate. If your method can't be played every spin, then you just rely on pure luck, emotions, stress, voodoo, .. meaning soon or later you will find the bad streak or pattern and will burst. I also don't feel confortable with money on the table, so i'm only for a logic to apply mechanically with confidence.

What I understand in the survive long enough, I will be very bad, but I will say that it's the way to take advantage of the only weakness of the wheel  ;D 
Mathematically, there is apparently no weakness, so what else than luck do we have to work on ?
 

Third

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #12 on: May 05, 2019, 06:51:01 PM »
If we spin long enough, we will observe the cycles of roulette.



« Last Edit: May 05, 2019, 06:59:00 PM by Third »
 

MickyP

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #13 on: May 05, 2019, 08:41:07 PM »
Extensive testing reveals the limits of a system or method and I fully support thorough testing but when you actually play for money there is no need to push the method to its limits by continuous play and hoping luck keeps you from crashing. Every method has its limits.

Learning to use a method properly through recalling your test phases and setting realistic session goals is the right way to play. The only players who can play continuously are AP players because they have made prediction the core of their game. Where system players get caught by the black swan the AP guys just carry on reading the game to their advantage. I know the AP guys have their off times but their manner of prediction holds water.
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Why Do We Win Playing Roulette
« Reply #14 on: May 05, 2019, 08:52:03 PM »
Shaldoryn. ..
  Points of entering the trade are many... in simple words it's a price in wich you enter a trade. It should be related somehow with what you see on graph . Points to exit a trade are many as well..  how many points you know will show exactly how good/ what type of trader you are.