Author Topic: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?  (Read 479 times)

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Third

Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« on: April 23, 2019, 11:04:25 PM »
When I hear someone say "bet selection", I automatically think "a mechanical method to try and get the best chance to hit within a specified timeframe".  What I have learned about mechanical methods is that they all eventually reduce to their forecasted statistics (expectation); hence the commonly understood concept,"bet selection doesn't matter".

However, take any spin sequence of any length and there is ALWAYS a way to get better results than statistical expectation, simply by choosing correctly.  The longer the sequence, the greater chance that choosing correctly, means NOT choosing mechanically.

The best way that I have been able to conceptualize "non-mechanical" betting, is FLEXIBILITY.  That is, the ability to choose ones bets based on the gaming conditions, where matching one's bets to the wheel results is more important than any single type of bet.

FLEXIBILITY allows a player to follow their INTUITION which is informed by EXPERIENCE

How many computer simulations are given the option to choose their bets based on what they have learned from the sequence and past sequences they have analyzed?  How many human players actually allow learning and experience to affect which numbers they bet at any given time? 
« Last Edit: April 23, 2019, 11:08:40 PM by Third »
 

Trilobite

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2019, 04:02:39 AM »
It is all very nice to say the bet selection should adapt to the current game conditions, and that intuition plus experience will enable a flexible bet selection more in tune with what's going on as you play.

But, the true goal of systems players should always be to create a bet selection that takes all the guess work out of the game.

IMO, a purely mechanical method is what we (system players) all really want and strive for.

 
« Last Edit: April 24, 2019, 04:04:34 AM by Trilobite »
 
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scepticus

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #2 on: April 24, 2019, 12:14:15 PM »

"
But, the true goal of systems players should always be to create a bet selection that takes all the guess work out of the game.

IMO, a purely mechanical method is what we (system players) all really want and strive for."Trilo

Too true,  Trilo !
A true method needs to be replicable and so cannot be   based  on " intuition" ." The Game " never changes"  . There are still 37 numbers  available .There is still  unfair odds on offer.  These can only be overcome by our use of an " Assumption / Hypothesis. "   
 

MickyP

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #3 on: April 24, 2019, 02:02:30 PM »
The Wheel In The Casino Goes Round And Round
Round And Round
Round And Round
Round And Round
All Day Long

............Mechanical Systems FAIL........

Apply the mind and reduce numbers being bet on. Play the game, don't let the game play you!
 
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Third

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #4 on: April 24, 2019, 03:14:15 PM »
Using intuition and creative thought/analysis is scary because we know how easy it is to "second guess" ourselves and how unreliable we are in predicting upcoming results.  However, I am not advocating playing a PURE game of intuition/creative analysis but an INFORMED game, where our well thought out method is supplemented by our informed analysis.

For example, let's say our method is to always bet the hottest double street.  After having played this way for a long time, we know that at a certain point, another double street will become hotter and become the hottest.  So, instead of just playing the hottest and waiting for our selection to be fully replaced, when we notice a secondary double street separating from the pack and approaching our selection, we SWITCH GEARS and start a progression for TWO DS; now, whichever DS continues as the hottest, we profit.

Because we applied creative thought to our static play method, we have become more effective.  These creative opportunities surround us.  They are opportunities to do better than expectation and apply our creative/analytical skill! 
« Last Edit: April 24, 2019, 03:18:19 PM by Third »
 

scepticus

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #5 on: April 24, 2019, 03:18:58 PM »
Only ignorant people claim that ALL  mechnical systems fail . 

The ONLY worthwhile test of a method is ..Does it showa profit?  All else is " Noise " and there is plenty of that in this forum  .   
 

ahlidap

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #6 on: April 24, 2019, 04:22:40 PM »
Do all mechanical systems will fail? Maybe..
Do all mechanical bet selections will fail on their own? Most likely...

If you add good money management and game plan to a a mechanical bet selection, will the whole thing fail?
...

Example:
What do you must do when you're driving a car and the traffic light goes from green to yellow?
The answer will most likely be "break to slow down and stop".

You're right.. but, should you always do that?
Rainy day, you see the yellow light when your really close the the traffic light, and you have a car very close to your back.... will you press the brake pedal to stop?

NOTE: Assume traffic lights are before the intersection, right where you must STOP.

Should you behave in a mechanical way and press the brake and probably be hit by some car in your trunk?

"Apply the mind" like MickyP wrote is important..
It's not there just to create hair and some lice.

Problem is: It's much easier to do things mechanically...
« Last Edit: April 24, 2019, 04:24:49 PM by ahlidap »
 
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Third

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #7 on: April 24, 2019, 04:53:06 PM »
Problem is: It's much easier to do things mechanically...

Its also much "safer" to do it that way too; i.e. fear of making a wrong choice causes a mental paralysis.
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #8 on: April 24, 2019, 04:53:33 PM »
Should we start to speak in terms of "motivated bet selection "?
    Bet selection is not something like... "today is day 3, so l bet number 3 till hit"..  that kind of bet selection don't work properly.
    Normally players select bet based on data they take. Let's say data taken and we see some numbers being positive on the long run. If we are serious about data taking, we took not only numbers , but variety of conditions together with the numbers. So we filter these conditions ( factor analysis ) for being favorable for our numbers and form hypothesis. 
    Hypothesis is something like ... " in given ( carefully selected) conditions these numbers perform well better then probability dictates. "
    Now we left to confirm our hypothesis.  For that we take more data and monitor performance of these numbers.
   If hypothesis confirmed, we go back to our data and simulate betting on these numbers to determine how stable they are, what is average drowdown,  how to bet optimally to take max money with minimal risk.... that's a "system" and " money management plan " creation for specific play opportunity. 
   That's how it's done by people who want money.
 
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Third

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #9 on: April 24, 2019, 05:00:27 PM »
 

MrPerfect.

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #10 on: April 24, 2019, 06:05:10 PM »
It's better to die as a human then live as an animal
 
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scepticus

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2019, 09:29:07 PM »
"Apply the mind"

Ahlidap
How can you devise a " mechancal method " - or any method- without applying the mind ?

" Mindless " nonsense  .
 

MickyP

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #12 on: April 25, 2019, 09:57:58 AM »
True Scepticus, even if you are handed a mechanical system with guarantees and a sure win song you still have to apply your mind to try and understand why you keep losing.
 

MickyP

Re: Bet Selection, Is It Misunderstood?
« Reply #13 on: April 25, 2019, 10:34:15 AM »
Palestis and Harry came up with the Single Dozen System where a trigger indicates the bet selection for a limited number of spins that just so happens to fall within the "expectation zone".
Palestis took this a step further and introduced virtual betting to essentially eliminate back to back losses but this is not everyone's cup of tea; playing every spin is.
What creeps through the woodwork is that players "thrive" on action and an increased speed of the game (reduced time between spins); players also suffer from FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out). Taking this into account, it is no wonder that players lose. There is a constant battle within a player and bet selection hardly makes the list. Yes, bet selection takes the back seat and all other desires push the player to actively engage in the next spin. We have read about players abandoning a system but regret it after the fact because if they continued with the prescribed bet selection they would have won. But then again, at times a player must change tactics especially when "normal number distribution" is impeded. This is where you need to use your mind and break from conventional play. Palestis has written about this in great detail on this forum yet players still plod on believing that the table trend will change on the next spin.
Bet selection is an extremely important part of the game. The MAIN objective of the game is make a tangible profit that covers all your expenses. When you leave the casino you should have MORE money in your pocket than you walked in with. 

Palestis sticks to his bet selection but plays on a few tables, switching from one to the other, following trends and playing a table that will most likely yield a positive result. I support this way of play mostly because it is based on extensive test results that allows a player to use his mind by reflecting on his research and only playing under favorable conditions.
 
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