Author Topic: Long term vs Short term  (Read 192 times)

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kav

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Long term vs Short term
« on: April 16, 2019, 10:10:33 PM »
Let me be a naysayer for second  :P If we admit that we play a negative expectation game and "the house always wins" as they say. This can't stop you from winning your next straight up bet. I mean no matter what the long term expectations are, the short term is a totally different story.
So even if you can't win in the long run, specific mathematical systems can be effective in the short term.

Example: Imagine someone who plans to only play 30 or so spins. Or someone who would stop playing after winning two units. If this someone was able to use a 8 step Martingale, I would say "go for it". It is a great system for the (very) short run.
What do you think?
The next logical step is to ask what happens if we add various short terms after another... 8)
« Last Edit: April 17, 2019, 12:35:42 AM by kav »
 

scepticus

Re: Long term vs Short term
« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2019, 11:20:22 PM »
I think the term “ The Long  Run”  is a misnomer and leads to misperception.What is really meant is “ Sooner or Later “.

Should we bet only for a short time ? I think so. If we win soon we have a profit so why risk the possibility of giving it back ?  Aiming for big profits in a short space of time is a Mug’s Game . Scammers benefit from this attitude and emphasise how easy it is to win Big Profits in a day !

 Small profits add up  to big profits over time and can be achieved with patience and discipline.

Progressions ? Only a very short progression and ,preferably, a positive progression which I think is necessary with ECs. Even  betting 2 dozens over 2 spins as a Double gives odds  of 5/4 and a 25% profit should be acceptable to most gamblers.

Reliance on progressions  is not to be recommended . Much better to concentrate on Bet Selections being better than random.
 
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Third

Re: Long term vs Short term
« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2019, 11:34:00 PM »
The systems you describe are destined to fail and more likely sooner than later because all simplistic systems will fall to statistics, providing huge losses.

A) 30 spin limit for an EC bet -- This arbitrary spin limit does not change the statistics in the least, in fact, it actually increases the chance of achieving a loss because recovery attempts will likely be cut short or will force even larger losses than normal because of the need to achieve "the last coup following 30 spins"

B) 8 step Martingale -- This wins 99.52% of the time, which means that it loses .0048% of the time, which is 1:209 coup attempts and the loss is for 255 units.  The longer a person plays, the more likely it will be that their bust outs will be more frequent than expected, making recovery virtually impossible.  The fact that a 2 unit win is the stop loss, doesn't change the statistics and 1:209 is still a common event.  Playing for "the very short term" only means that the profits will be very small and not worth the risk of the full 255 units which can occur on the very first coup attempt (I have had this happen to me on multiple occasions).

These are examples that Dobble describes as "system vs. strategy", where only a strategy can win.  A strategy must include sophisticated and varied approaches & responses to foster debt recovery.  Automated & mechanical systems, as you have described, do not provide this and simply fail miserably.
« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 11:44:41 PM by Third »
 
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MrPerfect.

Re: Long term vs Short term
« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2019, 11:48:19 PM »
Do not matter the jumps, gravity is not losing its ground. One can and often should step out of the game, but no one can step out probability. 
    Long run consists of many short runs. Coffee breaks are fine and do not disrupt the odds.